Joaquin Phoenix has the win all locked up

My current picks:

Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
Jake Gyllenhaal - Jarhead
Phillip Seymour- Hoffman - Capote
George Clooney - Syriana
David Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck

What do you guys think about Jeff Daniels or Kurt Russell being possibilities this year?

I love Kurt Russell, and I would love to see him get an Oscar eventually. But I don't think he's eligible. I believe his roles in both Dreamer and Munich are supporting. He might get a supporting nom for Munich.

Jake G. (aka the October Sky kid) for Jar Head
Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line
David Stratman for Good Night and Good Luck
Ralph Fiencess for White Countess
Phillip Seymore Hoffman for Capote

I think because Jamie Foxx won last year, Phoenix will not win this year. I realize they're completely different actors, but they're in similar movies, and performances which depend largely on mimicry. Therefore I think the Academy will choose something different this year!

What do you guys think about Jeff Daniels or Kurt Russell being possibilities this year?

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i wish... they both deserve them for their work now and in the past.

I dont want anyone else to win unless the realy put up a better performance than he did in Walk the Line.

Well, Jeff Daniels got a nice writeup in Time. I've long felt that he's the most underrated actor in the business, capable of doing any role superbly in any genre.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/artic ... 26,00.html

David Poland commented on Joaquin Phoenix's performance as compared to Jamie Foxx's. The article is actually about underrated actors and actresses, but I'll post the text where he talks about Joaquin, as well as Reese Witherspoon.

http://www.thehotbutton.com/today/hot.b ... 5_wed.html

I'm not sure it's time to put Ginnifer Goodwin on this list. She has made four movies and stolen the show twice (I haven't seen one of the four). In Walk The Line, she holds her own against what may be the Oscar winner this year, Joaquin Phoenix's Johnny Cash, a performance that blows Jamie Foxx's Ray Charles impersonation all to acting oblivion. She just took a role in an HBO comedy series as one of Bill Paxton's three wives - Chloe Sevigny and Jeanne Tripplehorn are the other two - and who knows how that will go? She not well enough known to be underrated?. still just unknown.

But what about Joaquin Phoenix? The guy was Oscar nominated for Gladiator and won a BFCA Critics' Choice Award for Quills and he may win the Oscar this year, but after a kid career in films like SpaceCamp and Parenthood, he emerged as a young adult in To Die For and has never quite gotten the respect he deserved since. Inventing The Abbotts, U Turn, Return To Paradise, Clay Pigeons, 8MM, The Yards, Quills, Buffalo Soldiers? cult movies all? all meant to be more than that? 8 in 4 years? and only Gladiator making it all alright. Being Mel Gibson's weird brother in Signs worked for him. But The Village didn't go anywhere and Ladder 49 did business, but not great business. Walk The Line is really his breakout movie. It is a real movie star role. But you haven't seen it yet. And so, he's still underrated.

This next part is mostly for Lecter to see

Really, Reese Witherspoon belongs on this list, though it seems almost perverse. She is one of the top five box office actresses in the business today. That's a fact (and probably a bit of an understatement). But still, a lot of people are not believers. She's starred in 14 films since she broke out in Freeway nine years ago. She was still pretty much unknown when she stole every scene she graced in Pleasantville. She was high end in Cruel Intentions. And then she gave one of the great performances of the last quarter century in Election. It just gets better and better. Daring, crazy, smart, sexy and truly original. After the barely released Best Laid Plans a few pregnancy-forced small roles, and then Legally Blonde made her a superstar. But that bright, sunny blonde also cut into her rep as an actress, especially when repeated in Sweet Home Alabama, LB2, and Just Like Heaven. Even The Importance of Being Earnest and Vanity Fair didn't help. She was a major star, but she was terribly underrated by a lot of people. An Oscar nomination and maybe a win for Walk The Line will change all that. But for now?

David Poland's updated picks:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... Actor.html

The Frontrunners

SEEN

Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line - Can he win? He'll be nominated, so that's the only real question left.

Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain - The #1 critics choice of the moment... a fine performance, but everyone will need to be told that its an important performance

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote - The #2 critics choice of the moment... a very special performance whose value will have to be a mantra

UNSEEN

Sean Penn - All The Kings Men - A great, great role and a great, great actor... but does the man match the role?

Eric Bana - Munich - Someone has to get nominated if this is THE Movie, right? Bana is capable of greatness. We'll know for sure around Thanksgiving

Nathan Lane - The Producers - It won't happen if the film isn't one of The Chosen, but if it is, this nom will be undeniable

Tommy Lee Jones - The Three Burials Of Melquiades Estrada - Does he get an acting nod for directing his own film? Will we find out that he is Ennis del Mar's illegitimate father?

The Tough Gets

Cillian Murphy - Breakfast On Pluto - A great performance, but so far, the film isn't going down easy. Brokeback Mountain is making it seem frivilous to some, but it lingers & grows and this performance with it

Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow - A star-making turn, but the Academy seems to like it better when prior icons turn pimp in leading roles, not when they start there

Ralph Fiennes - The Constant Gardener - His best performance, but may be too early and too subtle to have a real chance

David Strathairn - Good Night. And, Good Luck - A letter perfect performance, but the critical support Strathairn needs will probably be used up on Capote Mountain

Viggo Mortensen - A History Of Violence - A performance where a very stoic actor gives us to two very distinguishable emotional sides of a character.

George Clooney - Syriana - If its a great film, Clooney can offer a great performance... plus weight gain always draws a crowd.

Jeff Daniels - The Squid & The Whale - An actor who has become very respectable in recent years... a very emotional part

Just South Of The Border

Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man - He could phone in the campaign... phone it in... get it?!?!?

Colin Farrell - The New World - It's Pocahontas' movie... but could move to Supporting Actor

Johnny Depp - The Libertine - Actors lobe Johnny and this is one of his favorite performances and they are moving to November 23 to get some breathing room.. we'll know when we see it..

Bill Murray - Broken Flowers - Not this time.

Jonathan Rhys Meyers - Match Point - He is well out of the awards mainstream, but you never know

50 Cent - Get Rich Or Die Tryin' - If the movie is a Jim Sheridan film and not a gangsta flick.

Here is Poland's latest ranking:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... Actor.html

Here's an article on Phoenix's chances.

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/new ... enix_x.htm

Penn is out, so that opens a bit of a hole in my mind for the 3rd big contender.

hmmm...hadn't heard about this. I wonder if this will create sympathy in the academy for Clooney.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 21,00.html

Updated:

- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
- Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
- Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
- Eric Bana, Munich
- David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck

Clooney is indeed being pushed for lead actor in Syriana.

http://goldderby.latimes.com/goldderby_blog/


Chunky Clooney Bounces Back to Lead

There must be a mess on Stephen Gaghan's cutting-room floor. The Oscar-winning author of "Traffic" has changed his mind often while directing "Syriana," even at one point demoting George Clooney from lead to supporting-role status despite the fact that Clooney's shingle, Section Eight, is producing the film with Warner Bros.

At least that was a better fate than befell poor Michelle Monaghan , whose whole story line got axed when a butt-numb screening audience griped that the pic about corporate oil intrigue in the Middle East was too long.

Just weeks ago "Syriana's" Oscar crusaders were adamant: Clooney was going supporting. A curious rumor backed up that assertion, claiming that the aw-shucks, I'm-just-one-of-the-guys superstud didn't want to go lead anyway, because it'd mean competing for best actor against David Strathairn, star of the Clooney-helmed "Good Night, and Good Luck." Made sense.

But there's an official new category declaration: Clooney's definitely going lead and screening tattletales claim he's got a real shot at winning.

Not only does he give a powerhouse perf as a conspiracy-snooping CIA trooper, but Clooney's got that whole body transformation thing going on. Voters love it when pretty stars go ugly, of course, and Clooney accommodates them by growing a scruffy beard, shaving back his hairline and packing on 30 pounds. Entertainment Weekly believes "Syriana" will forever "be known as the film that turned the famous Sexiest Man Alive into a walrus."

"Syriana" is still an ensemble film with four interweaving plots. That means that Clooney's story line is limited, but apparently his screen time's been beefed up nearly as much as the star's girth. It's been hard to keep track of this movie's many evolutions, actually.

Originally, Clooney's character was supposed to be based upon real-life CIA gumshoe Robert Baer , author of "See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA War on Terrorism." Then Gaghan dropped his plan to adapt that book and also dropped the Baer name, now calling Clooney's character Bob Barnes.

Gaghan insists, "Mr. Clooney's agent is entirely fictional." Memo to Mr. Gaghan: Is this latest report that Clooney's back in the best actor race fictional, too? Oh, the suspense surrounding thrillers like this!

Since the National Board Of Review likes rewarding actors for multiple films, I think Ralph Fiennes has a real chance winning their award for The Constant Gardner and The White Countess. That might put him back as a frontrunner along with Hoffman, Ledger, and Phoenix.

I think a great (and quite possible) line-up would be....


George Clooney, Syriana
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Pheonix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn/Eric Bana

Joaquin is very much in and the in the lead now for the win.
I think alot of people are on board with Ledger and hsi strong reviews and buzz thu far, so there's not a whole lotta convincing there either.
I think Hoffman will get in there. He's gone too long as unacknowledged and the Academy knows that. Plus, as long as the voter has seen the performance, they will put it on their short list!

The next two are tricky...
I really think George Clooney has a serious shot. He's starting to turn into a serious player in the making of films after he hit 40 and following a super-star career which never really acknowledged his talent. He is almost a replica of Clint Eastwood or soon to be. And I think he will pull a Clint this year with a director and actring nod!

Breakfast in Pluto is getting bad-ish reviews, so Cillian Murphy is out. I never really considered him to be a deep contender anyways.

From the article Maverikk posted in his last post...

Nominations for those three men [Hoffman, Joaquin, and Ledger] are considered guaranteed, according to the Academy voters, strategists and industry insiders interviewed for this story.

Exactly what I have been saying for some time now. Finally there is some sort of "tangible" evidence I can use to back up a strong opinion.

Who would have thought some years ago that Ledger would be a strong contender? Although I've got to admit that he delivered a strong performance in this year's Lords of Dogtown already and he delivered the best performance in The Brothers Grimm as well.

I am fairly certain Bana will get a nom for Munich as well. Bana, Ledger, Phoenix and Hoffman...and...I'd say David Strathairn.

The win will be between Hoffman and Phoenix with Bana being the dark horse like Adrien Brody was with The Pianist.

Lecter, a year ago I would have never, ever thought Ledger (the king of B.Office poison) would have the best chance at winning an Oscar. Never.

Good work, Mr. Ledger. He's delivered very solid performances thus far...

And the other dark horse...

Adrian Brody himself!

No seriously, hes not one of the huge contenders, but hes still a slightly faded actor in the background thats in there. He could get a nom if the film is great.

He probably won't though.