I'll finally get to see it, as I just found out that the theater near me that specializes in independent films and smaller releases, started playing two new movies yesterday, Junebug and The Constant Gardener. (still waiting on Broken Flowers to come around. )

I don't see it getting a BP nom, but I do, like Lynch did just a few years back, see it getting the directors nom for Cronenbergs lifetime of work and finesse, and the nnowledge he will never be mainstream enough to get a pb nod, but History is as close as its gonna get. So like Lynch he'll Cronenberg will get some recognition for himself. I was not as impressed by Bello's performance as Mortensen's (and neither was as impressive as Hurt and Harris), but she may get a nom because i just don't see as tight a lead actress or supporting actress race going as I do a lead actor race. The past few years, lead actor has really stood out as being the toughest for me, imo, so someone always gets left out that deserves it. I still think he'll get it, but only of Violence has long legs and is still in memory when noms come out.

edit*** If Adams makes it in as a nom it will be quite a success story for Junebug, which is still just north of 1 million dollars b.o. even after months in release. Its a an incredibly small movie for the awards to notice. But she really does deserve it. her and the girls from My Summer of Love are the only truly memorable female performances I've seen this year. Bello's alright, and then there's a drop off. Really this year has been dominated by better male performances, and with upcoming films such as Brokeback, that streak looks to continue.

Match Point will be a best picture nominee.

The only problem with Match Point, I can't believe I didn't know this before, is that Woody Allen isn't in the movie. If he was then it'd have the power. Unfortunatly the male lead is some unknown half-latino guy...I think it might end up that Scarlett gets a BA but nothing else for the movie.

I wouldn't exactly call jonathan rhys-meyers unknown (or half latino?) but regardless im not sure about him getting a nomination even if the film is great. that does not, however, affect the chance of the film itself in my opinion.

the only question i have is wether scarlet johansson will be lead or supporting??? i think she'll be nominated regardless for sure, i just don't know where. I think it will do exactly like Lost in Transaltion.

Best Picture
Best Diretor
Best Screenplay

Best Actress/Supporting Actress instead of/along with Best Actor.

The absence of Woody Allen acting in Match Point should only help it, not hurt it.

Why wouldn't it help it? Hes plenty loved and respected, and him being in the movie if its done well enough would put a stamp on it and possibly make it great. It'd be an increased effect of Clint in Baby in my mind, as Woody Allen makes even more screen presence. And he is a very good actor when he does it right.

Match Point is going to need to be the critic's choice to get to the top, because it's not going to be a champion of the studios or the box office.

Right now I see Good Night and Good Luck or even (I'm changing my mind a bit) Capote as the little-film-that-could column.

Match Point may prove to be too small, too late.

I see a writing nomination potentially.

Interesting.

Was browsing over at Oscarwatch. The BFCA (Broadcast Film Critic Association) had Capote and A History of Violence tied at "89" for September. They pick a "film of the month" every month, which is their film that gets the highest ratings.

They ended up choosing A History of Violence over Capote. It's not interesting because it will make it a better contendor... it's just interesting to me that A History of Violence has this air of being a "soft" Cronenberg movie but in reality it remains the best reviewed American film of the year.

The Best of 2005:
01/05 - The Chorus
02/05 - Inside Deep Throat
03/05 - The Upside of Anger
04/05 - Sin City
05/05 - Crash
06/05 - Cinderella Man
07/05 - Murderball
08/05 - The Constant Gardener
09/05 - A History of Violence

http://www.bfca.org/filmofthemonth.asp

Poor Murderball. Never took off with the crowds, and I don't even know if its eligable for Best Doc this year. Even if it was, Penguins, unfortunately, will kill it.

Get it? Kill it? Bwahahahaha. *I crack myself up*

Murderball is eligible.

There's no way that Penguins will lose though. Penguins, like Moore films, are actually changing how documentaries are percieved by theater chains and the movie going public.

The docu race is interesting this year...

Murderball and Penguins will be nommed. I think Grizzley Man will. Enron has a good chance...

Rounding out the five will be Mad Hot Ballroon. And that's that. This is probably the easiest race of the ceremonies to predict this year.

I'm not so sure about Mad Hot Ballroom.

Inside Deep Throat had far more visability and an equal amount of praise.

Andarooooo...

Did you see In Her Shoes last night?

I didn't buy my tickets in time

Oh, it sold out?

That's a good sign!

See it next weekend. Great movie.

Amy Adams deserves recognition for Junebug, and woohoo...my theater that shows independents has Broken Flowers Coming Soon! (maybe by next week!)

I really want to see Junebug now. Why is it not playing in Seattle?! I'm not driving to Lynnwood, WA to see it (which is only like 20 mi but meh!)

I'd definitely recommend seeing it. I think there are only about 4 of us here who have seen it, but we've all liked it.

More. Rafikki and DKmuto have also seen it for sure.

Here's the thing about supporting female roles. There have been alot of female ensemble casts this year, but its not like any one of the Broken Flowers women could/will get precedence over the other, so it spells no nom for any of them. Even for people who liked Crash *shudders* Honestly with no one getting more than 8 minutes of screentime its the same problem as Broken Flowers.

Right now I've pretty much only seen two roles that officially fall into "supporting actress" timelength, etc. Thats Adams and Keener, which is in part why I think they'll make it on. Look into the future list of movies. Aside from being incredibly male cast oriented, and even Walk the Line doesn't actually have female supporters (though it does have men). That leaves guess who GONG LI! I'm so excited I'm shaking!

Well, don't forget about Shirlie MacLaine, who has two supporting turns this year.

I suppose supporting noms could come from The Family Stone, perhaps one of the North Country actresses, or maybe Michelle Yeoh or Amanda Peet. I wouldn't rule out one of the daughters in The Upside of Anger. I do think Adams, Keener, and MacLaine are the frontrunners right now.

Don't forget about Bello, who could easily go Supporting for A History...

Jesus...how did I forget her? Yes, she's definitely in the hunt. Very strong and daring performance.

I still don't understand what is/went wrong with Proof...besides no one seeing it yet (but it's only out in a couple hundred theaters, and only's been out for 2 weeks, right?)
It's definitely Gwyneth's show, but Hope Davis was quite great in her supporting role. She also has 3 other films this year: The Weather Man, Duma, and The Matador. So. Dunno.

Probably because she could as easily qualify as actress in a leading role but I agree, I think they're going to try and shuffle her into supporting role, because that how most first timers get their name in. She deserves it too.