As I showed you, the foremost experts are saying the same thing, but you continue to disregard that because of what YOU think. The campaign HAS started. Pay attention. It was rolled out in Toronto. Do you know what the Toronto film festival is a platform for? Again...research first, then present the facts. It's already being pushed more as a film than Ray was last year.



That 3 weeks is a lifetime in regards to a rollout date, especially the way frontloading is at the box office. This is stuff I shouldn't even have to be explaining. Walk the Line will be very much in voters minds, Ray had to deal with several much fresher films. That matters.




Notice how I'm the only one who can produce them, yet you keep trying to say "it's only my opinion that I'm giving"?



Most movies have a standout, Reese stands out. You act as if the reviews are supposed to say "It's a perfect film" or it means they are good but not great. Everybody loved or liked the film. Accept it. You're putting words into there mouths. Nobody says it's good but not great.



I read some more of your made up facts claiming that females don't know who Johnny Cash is like men do.



Reese Witherspoon is a draw, Foxx and Theron are not. Mine are facts, yours are opinions that you can't prove in any way, but try to act as if they are facts. You just go blah blah blah and expect people to take it for the truth, yet I can provide stuff to back me up. Try doing that. You still haven't, because you know you can't. I can back my opinions up, you can't, so you try to say that my opinion (that I back up with several links of proof) is only my opinon. Post links, not bullshit.



He was on fire after he won the Oscar (Not, as you claim, after Collateral) yet Stealth bombed hard, just like the point you tried to make did.




You're talking in circles as you try to make up whatever scenerio will give you support, but unlike me, you can't back it up with a shread of proof. She didn't become a draw until Legally Blonde, so Pleasantville isn't a valid argument either. We are talking commercialism here, and you're not grasping that. She's a draw. She's a draw in romantic films. This is a romantic film. A donkey could tell that by watching the trailer, so I have no idea why you're confused about that.




The main plan of the trailer to Titanic was to show the boat and that Leo was the lead character, but everybody could tell it was a romance story at heart. Walk the Line is no different, and they don't have to show him sticking his tongue down her throat in every scene to get that across. It's a lot closer to The Notebook than you realize.




And that was $12.7 % of it's attendance. Do you see how big her female fanbase is? Can you understand a simple point without getting confused? That is definitely an extraordinary number for a female attendance, but since you don't belong to that demographic, you dismiss it as nothing special. It's September. Movies don't open to big numbers in September, which is why there were no records broke like you thought there would be. Getting 12.7 million from females for an opening in September is very strong, and claiming otherwise is just making things up. (again)



Your mom and your friends mom represent every mom? My mom doesn't like that stuff. Does she not qualify as EVERY mom? You're projecting your life's experience on everybody. Just because your class liked something, that doesn't make it representative of the whole. My niece, who is 15, also doesn't like movies about people with afflictions. You're definitely inventing stats, and that's why I prefer that you post links to back them up instead. No offense, but I know better than what you just tried to state as a fact.



Once again, I didn't misunderstand a thing, but you're talking in circles. It's not like Johnny Cash and June Carter are hillbillies like you tried to claim, and they don't come off that way, and yes, people know them very well, so when they see the movie advertise, they have no prejudice that's it's a couple of dumb hicks anymore than the blacks who you claim ALL support Ray Charles would look at him as an Uncle Tom or "the whitest black-man possible". That would definitely turn many of them off if that where true, so like I said, you're talking in circles.




White men can relate to a black man as a cowboy in a western who's not a repressed minority? Don't think so, and hence, your 113 million.



Because you make up things instead of providing proof. What did you expect me to say, good job? Post proof, because your word has crumbled to dust. I backed up every claim with links, you can only ask "why do you need links?" Because it's called concrete and substantial, and you've only given empty words, making claims like Johnny Cash faded decades ago that were easily disproven.




I didn't find dirt on you, that's in the Walk the Line thread in the Oscar forum where I grabbed a link. I've posted comments from the foremost experts in their fields that back me up, I've posted all of Cash's accomplishments, while you were busy thinking "because I don't know, nobody does". You lost Shack, that doesn't mean you have to like it.

I said "we'll see", didn't I? Harry Potter is obviously going to have a little effect, just not a box office killer.
Hmm..



Post an example of Ray Charles having any type of fanbase. I'm still waiting for that. That 9000 member fanbase online should really serve as an eye opener, because I'll guarantee that neither you, Lecter, or Shack believed such a thing was possible until you saw it with your own eyes. Do you realize how significant it is for somebody to have a forum with that many fans? Do you honestly believe that's all the fans he has? That's a small sample of what is a huge fanbase, much bigger than anything Ray Charles has. MUCH bigger.

Yes it has. They are not showing the films in the festivals for their health. They are doing a special screening for Hurricane Relief. There are a lot of films that are in full swing at the moment, not just Walk the Line. Dolcevita saw a North Country ad on a bus. They were trying to give Cinderella Man an Oscar push since mid-summer. Crash is also pushing big. Everyone's starting to push.

It's Oscar/Awards potential is a huge selling point to the film, any marketer worth their salt would be pimping that as gently but clearly as possible as a selling point for the film. I think to say otherwise is a bit naive.


Can you prove that it "sneaked into the fifth spot"? Universal had a strong push the previous year with Seabiscuit, and by the sheer amount of nominations and buzz you could easily make a case that it was Finding Neverland squeeking into that 5th spot. Lecter and I had this argument last year. Did fine with critics and the precursers and got both the Picture and the Director nominated. Even got a sound nomination.

The Academy doesn't release it's vote totals so this argument has no foundation.


Guessing what the studio head is going to do in this instance is not a huge stretch of the imagination.


That's just box office, all the screenings for all the films happen in November and December. The important thing is a November/December release date, and there are a lot of films in that timeframe.


I think it's just that you are indignant. I don't agree with Maverickk's argument (Potter losing steam????), but you refuse to yeild on anything. Even I was super wrong about Brokeback Mountain all year, I don't mind if you change your opinion, but it's like talking to a wall. Moolah actually found articles in the Oscar thread which support your claim even though I don't agree that all of them say what he/she is claiming, but some obviously point to the film having problems or major flaws, you couldn't even produce those yourself when challenged.


Theron has box office power? People didn't go see The Italian Job because of her (it was before the Oscar anyway). Maybe Foxx.


This is true, Vanity Fair.

Just to clarify, that was Shack's quote, but my name got mixed up in it.

And yes, Harry Potter is losing steam, evidenced by each of the 3 films grossing less than the last. (it's still very potent, though)

At least there will be one surprise waiting for you in November/December.

That surprise is that Harry 4 doing at least better than Harry 3

Mav, are you willing to bet with me over Harry Potter?

Well, both films come out the day after my birthday, and they are both in my top 5 anticipated (I think Walk the Line is #1 over King Kong now), so I'll be seeing them both opening weekend in celebration. I hope Harry Potter returns to it's earlier potential, but it has shown a decline, and there are some good films coming out this season, but maybe returning to the fall release date will benefit it. Here's hoping.

Lecter, no more bets. I have two going right now (as opposed to your one), and that's good enough.

Ah yeah, that yellow stripe, huh? I am willing to say it'll have the highest opening of the franchise...

That's a rather daring bet.

I thought it would just have better legs!

No yellow stripes on me, but I can only handle so much at once. (I'm not as young as I used to be)

Better legs than the last movie? Definitely. Better than the first two...unlikely.

But I don't consider my bet suggestion a daring one. I actually opened my $95+ million opening club a long while ago and right now I'm thinking borderline $100 million for the opening weekend.

On 12.7 mil off females point: -You say thats a huge fanbase, and that getting 12.7 from females in September is extraordinary. Uh no. Do you realize that Flightplan just this past weekend made that much from its females? And Exorcism the week before it. Just Like Heaven has the 3rd highest female attendance of the month, out of 4 week's #1s. 3rd place out of 4. Thats not exactly extremely strong.

DUHHHHHH DO YOUR RESEARCH!@!@!@@#!@#!@# YOU ARE SAYING MADE UP FACTS!2!#@!#!@


Theron was a draw in Monster. Key words: In Monster. I never said anything about her being a draw outside of that movie. She was a draw because she was the #1 contender for Best Actress.

Same goes for Foxx. I never said he was a draw a la opening Stealth, I said that when Ray came out he was just coming off a hot hit, and coming off a hot hit like Collateral puts you way up when you compare it to coming off a disappointment like Just Like Heaven. And that added to the acclaim for Best Actor, and #1 frontrunner status put him right up there where Witherspoon is almost sitting at.

And are you serious? Comparing Walk the Line to Titanic? Yeesh...reacchinggggggggg.

Wild Wild West was a cowboy movie, the term cowboy is branded by being white. And Klein is a very much white supporting character.


...


Maverikk do you know how desperate you're sounding right now? I mean through the last 3 pages of my valid points, this has been the briefing. For every one of my valid claims and points pointed out, instead of actually countering and saying why your view on that claim is different, you've done this: a)Posted links and statistics about Johnny Cash's career, and b) Reply to my every paragraph with empty insults against my posting style, and how I don't post enough links, and how I don't do research enough, and how I don't show proof.

Do you how many times in the last 5 pages you've said "You're saying opinions that you made up. You are presenting facts out of nowhere. Don't you look up this things? These are making you look like an idiot. You're giving opinions you can't back up. You're talking in circles. You didn't research! therefore your posts are invalid. You didn't back anything up with links. I know so much more about this than you. You have no evidence of this, I am right and you are wrong. I am always right(not that one but pretty much). Uh I'm winning obviously. I am right and you are wrong. Don't worry if I completley shred your unstable comments. I'm beating you. " Like 10 000 times. Virtually everything you've replied with to my two posts has been name-calling, without actually bringing any arguments to the table yourself.

It just seems kind've lame to me. Especially when its a 36/37 year old arguing with a 15 year old. I mean at least come up with some kind of actual counter-points to my posts.

So what you're saying, is that if Gus have 5 million dollars and Bill has 4 million dollars, but Sigmund only has 3 million dollars, since he doesn't have the most money, he doesn't have a lot? um...




And so is Reese, so you're saying she'll be a draw because of that AND because she's got a huge female fanbase? I would have to agree on that.



Do you want me to list the number of times somebody had a bomb after they just came off a hot hit to completely destroy the point that you're trying to make? Jamie Foxx was nobody when Ray came out, and only a small group of people really knew who he was, or even knew he was the guy who was in Collateral. Most of the moviegoers aren't as astute as we are here, because we take it as serious as people take sporting events.



Why is that reaching? I was comparing the fact the the love stories are central to both films. You think that's a stretch?



Yes, and Smith didn't fit into the cowboy that people could identify with, because he wasn't white, and it was based off a very popular TV show where James West was a white guy. Why do you think The Hooneymooners bombed so hard?




....




Your points aren't valid, or you would be able to present more than just you word to substantiate your claims. Why is that an insult? How could you possibly be insulted by me expec ting more from you than just your word, especially when I've proven many of them wrong in this very thread already?



Jesus, you act like I've continously called you an asshole. I haven't called you any names, but you have made claims that aren't accurate more than once, and said them in a matter of fact way. It's led me to telling you to present facts. I countered such points as you claiming all woman like stories about people with afflictions, and to be honest, I didn't even want to counter such a point, but did so so I wouldn't be accused of dodging it or conceding it. I don't know how you could even make such a claim and expect it not to be challenged, and then to get offended when it was. When claims are made about Johnny Cash fading decades ago, you should expect for his career achievements with links presented to be thrown in your face. When you make claims that "Hurt" only sold because he died, you better expect to be called on it. It was a hit before he died. You can't make those kinds of claims and expect it to go unchallenged. You've made a lot of those, and that's why I've started telling you to present links, but I did tell you I would start doing that if I saw it happening, so it shouldn't have surprised you.




Shack, don't take it personally. The counter points I've come up with are being missed, such as you claiming that blacks gave unanimous support to Ray Charles, who you called the whitest black man alive in the same sentence, and I told you that you were talking in circles, because blacks wouldn't unanimously support Charles if they viewed him that way. I countered your point right there. I countered your point that people look at Johnny Cash as Johnny Cash, not as some dumb hillbilly that married his cousin (which Jerry Lee Lewis did, by the way) and can't read or write.

By the way, Johnny Cash was in an excellent TV movie called The Pride of Jesse Hallam, in which he plays an illiterate man. I don't know how anybody would be able to find it, but he had great acting ability, too.

Didn't "open my eyes" one bit.

I found this interesting, and it's from one of the many female fans that Johnny Cash had, talking about the benefit that Ebert and Roeper hosted, and picked Walk the Line as the film they screened.

http://johnnycash.groupee.net/groupee/f ... /112101044

Hey Gang!

The movie/fundraiser event last night was awesome!! I'll hold off sharing my thoughts about the film until November - when all of us will have seen it. However, I can tell you that for all 135 minutes, there was not a peep in the room and not one person got up to use the bathroom!!

The event was quite successful and very cool. It sold out and raised over $26,000 for the American Red Cross to help victums of Katrina. It was attended primarily by film lovers rather than JC fans. There were even two evacuees that relocated to Chicago in attendance.

Richard Roeper and Roger Ebert introduced the film by teasing us and saying that there really was no movie, but that the two of them would be singing for us instead. They then started singing a bit of "Jackson." Ebert did JC's part and Roeper did JCC's part - very funny and a little strange! The two critics then said that they could not offically give a "review" of the movie since it had not yet been released. However, they then added that they both liked the movie "Ray" very much and both felt that "Walk the Line" was much better.

After the show, Roger Egert personally handed everyone a "Walk the Line" movie poster and asked them how they liked the film. Everything at the concession stand (alcohol included) was donated by the Gene Siskel Film Center and was free for the entire evening.

While Joaquin does a great job acting and singing, and many have said that he sounds just like Johnny Cash, there is no doubt that everyone on this forum will not be confused.


Debbie O'Donnell

Well seeing as though Ebert gave Ray 4 stars and he thought Walk the Line was much better, it looks like the film is definitely getting 4 stars as well. That's always good to put on the TV spots.

They don't just do this kind of thing for people who are marginally popular.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050928/en_nm/arts_cash_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - He topped Nashville charts, conquered New York publishing and is the subject of a new movie. Now the late Johnny Cash will reach Broadway in February with the opening of "Ring of Fire," a musical featuring the classic songs of the legend known as "The Man in Black."

The producers said on Wednesday the musical featuring 38 of Cash's songs would begin performances in New York in February, directed by Richard Maltby, who won a Tony Award for conceiving and directing the Fats Waller musical "Ain't Misbehavin'."

The show follows a string of so-called "jukebox musicals" using an artist's song catalog, and comes within months of a biopic about the country legend, "Walk the Line," which was a hit at the Toronto Film Festival this month.

After a career that spanned five decades, Cash died in 2003, just a few months after the death of his wife, country singer June Carter Cash.

He told his own story -- from his youth as the son of an Arkansas sharecropper, to touring with Elvis Presley and Jerry Lee Lewis and his descent into drug addiction -- in the book "Cash: The Autobiography," published in 1997.

The musical, which is playing a pre-Broadway engagement in Buffalo, New York, this month, features all the hits from "I Walk the Line" to "The Man in Black" and "Country Boy."

The Buffalo opening won a good review from The Toronto Star, which urged readers to put aside reservations about jukebox musicals based on disappointing recent shows such as those based on the music of John Lennon and the Beach Boys.

"There's no cliched stage biography here, nor is there an artificially constructed story trying to string it all together," the newspaper wrote. "What you get are three dozen numbers that Cash performed in his lifetime, presented in an impressionistic format that suggests the man's life journey, without ever spelling it out."

No single actor sings all Cash's songs or plays him.

"The persona, the voice, are unduplicatable, and the very best we could achieve would be a poor imitation," Maltby said, explaining the decision not to present Cash himself on stage.

In the program notes for the Buffalo production, he said Cash, who had rejected several previous ideas for a musical, had given his approval for the project shortly before he died.

Maltby said that while it is not Cash's life story, what emerges is "an almost mythic American tale -- of growing up in simple, dirt-poor surroundings in the heartland of America, leaving home, traveling on wings of music, finding love, misadventure, success, faith, redemption, and the love of a good woman."

Hah, I think Zingy is just hoping Walk the Line doesn't hit the $100M mark because only one movie about a music superstar in November will. Because, you know, the 50 Cent is so much more of a cultural icon than Johnny Cash. I guess getting shot like fifteen times and living to go on and rap sexually suggestive songs gets you high up in this era.

I knew there was a reason for his denial, and I think you just hit it.

50 Cent alive and in full stride is much more popular than Johnny Cash dead. Thats how 8 mile, if counted as a biopic as it basicly is, is the #1 grosser in its area.

Ya think? Of course someone who's alive and continuing to make music (I'm not counting Tupac) would be more popular at the moment than someone who died a few years ago.

I also don't think 50 Cent is as popular as Eminem, although I do see his movie doing well ($80M?).

Ok, guys and girls, step up to the plate. You all know 100 million, after all the stuff that's been presented in this film's favor, is going to happen.

The 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Maverikk
2. dolcevita
3. Libs
4. Killuminati510
5. BJ
6. MovieDude
7. newfoundglorysp
8. the man from fran...ce
9. insein-darko
10. rusty
11. Maximus
12. Flava'd?
13. Moolah

The Under 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Zingaling
2. Dr. Lecter
3. Shack
4. matatonio
5. revolutions
6. bABA
7. Animosity Reigns

On November 15th, Joaquin and Reese will be presenters at the CMA awards. Good publicity for the movie opening 3 days later, huh?

http://www.cmaawards.com/2005/news/pres ... asp?re=459

HELL NO! O_O what are they thinking. They should be presenting at the BET awards. Like DUH!!
What the hell does country music have anything to do with Johnny Cash. So freaking stupid of the marketing department.

Another reason why this movie will NOT top $100m. Sux to be u Mav.

I will join the under $100 mil club.

Very few biopics earn $100 mil, the ones that reach that milestone starred Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator, Catch Me If You Can) and Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich). Two of the films (ABM, TA) were platform releases in Dec that built on awards season to reach $100 mil. One film (CMIYC) was a Dec wide release directed by Spielberg with Tom Hanks in a supporting role. The last film starred Julia Roberts at the height of her box office power. EB was a spring release that had one of the biggest openings ever for a drama. Roberts was also the early favorite to win best actress and Steven Sodeberg(sp) received double directing Oscar noms for Brockovich and Traffic. If Walk the Line was a Dec platfom release it might be able to reach $100 mil thanks to awards season. Right now I can't see "Walk the Line" performing better then Ray.I don't think WTL has enough star power and the film needs a better release date.