Ebert & Roeper won't push the film over $100 million. Pointless arguement there.

It opens up against Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. As xiayun has stated before, ALL films are affected when a big film opens. There's no such thing as counter-programming in that case. That said, an opening of $20 million is way out there, even in 3,000+ theaters, which, unlike almost all the Fox releases this year, it might not get because of all the movies being released.

Reese Witherspoon is a draw, but not big enough for Walk the Line. She draws people to romantic comedies; the right ones, though. Her highest grossing film outside of that genre is Pleasantville, which made around $40 million in 1999. She's a draw for a specific genre; she won't bring those same teenage girls out for Walk the Line, unfortunately.

Joaquin Phoenix? He's a draw? No. He's only had three big hits; two of which were backed up by M. Night's name, and the other featuring John Travolta. He hasn't really shown he's a draw yet. Not saying that Jamie Foxx is more of a draw, but this cast isn't what's going to make the film successful at all.

The only thing I agree with so far is that it'll be the more leggy film of the two.

I wasn't arguing that Ebert and Roeper would push it past 100 million, I was pointing out the evident quality to anybody who was questioning it.

Harry Potter, no matter how much denial his fans are in about it, has lost a lot of steam. It's not going to be the 90+ million opener that some of you think it will, and it's also not going to draw in many of the core audience that will opt for Walk the Line. Just check out how virtually uneffected Monster-in-Law was by the behemoth known as Revenge of the Sith, and then get back to me about that counterprogramming argument.

Phoenix is not a draw at all, but Phoenix playing Johnny Cash is a bit different. Witherspoon IS a draw to the female audience. Again, just because you guys don't belong to the group, you simply dismiss it. That doesn't make them just disappear when you do that. 77% of the opening audience for Just Like Heaven were the girls, and that proves that she's a draw with the ladies, and they will indeed support her here. Vanity Fair was a poorly marketed and non commercial film, before anybody decides to drag that lame argument up as if it means something. This is her first commercial movie outside the romcom genre since she's been a box office draw.

Hahh.

Zingy, have you ever heard of something called an "Oscar boost"?

Walk the Line is being released late enough into the year that it might be reissued (re: expanded again) around February.

I think this starpower argument is a bunch of utter BS, people didn't immediately go see Ray because Jamie Foxx was in it, they saw it (initially, at least) because of the popularity of Ray Charles.

If you think Johnny and June Cash are not popular figures in American culture today, you need an embracing reality check because you're an idiot (not you, Zingy, just in general).

count me in.
with the oscar push i see this pulling a final aviator / mdb like gross.

First of all, Monster-in-Law opened a weekend before Revenge of the Sith. That's not counter-programming, Maverikk. Wedding Crashers opening against Charlie and the Chocolate Factory for a different audience...that's counter-programming. Must Love Dogs opening up against Stealth. Down with Love opening against The Matrix Reloaded, that's counter-programming (failed one, though). Two different films opening against each other for different audiences. Not a weekend apart.

Second, I laugh at that statement that people will opt out of Harry Potter for Walk the Line. Sorry, but you have no proof that it'll open to less than $90 million that weekend, and even if it does, you don't think $80 million is even to hurt other films that weekend?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... =23&p=.htm

When Prisoner of Azkaban opened, the only film that helped better than 40% that weekend was a documentary, Super Size Me.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... =46&p=.htm

When Chamber of Secrets opened, the only films that held better than 40% were My Big Fat Greek Wedding (can't go there), The Ring (which had one of the biggest of its run that weekend) and The Santa Clause 2 (which was coming of a 14% drop the previous weekend, but dropped harder thanks to HP).

So, yeah, I seriously doubt the fans have just given up on HP and will "opt out" to Walk the Line, a biopic. Half the audience is KIDS, Maverikk. You think they're going to opt out to Walk the Line with Phoenix?



Maverikk, I realize that Johnny Cash is an icon. I'm not completely ignorant to the world. And, yes, Witherspoon IS a draw to the female audience. I've backed that statement up plently of times. Read back through all the Just Like Heaven threads; I supported it 100%. I didn't and wouldn't use Vanity Fair in this situation either because it was horribly marketed.

But, can you honestly tell me that the same teenage girls who pushed Just Like Heaven to $16 million will see Walk the Line because she's IN it? I don't think so. It's not her genre. Her character might be an icon, but I don't think Reese herself will contribute much to the film's opening weekend. Her fans like her genre, this is different.

Heh. Yes, I know, Libs.

I won't bet on it, but I stand by it.

Oh, and I didn't say Jamie Foxx was a draw, either. I said he draws about as much as Phoenix would.

It most certainly IS counterprogramming. Believe it or not, the studios don't just pay attention to opening weekends, they pay attention to the big picture. I have no idea where you got those made up facts from, but you're definitely barking up a tree of desperation.



Again, just to show you an example that you tried to dismiss as "not counterprogramming", Monster-in-Law brought in 14 million the weekend that Sith opened. I'd be feeling kinda dumb about that "it's not counterprogramming unless it's the same weekend opening" comment if I were you, but I'm glad to be here to educate you.



Where did I say the "fans" would do that? I said the Walk the Line audience, which you are seriously underestimating because it's not your group, so they must not exist, will not go see Harry Potter. It's lost a lot of it's luster, and every time a new HP movie comes out, it's fans start throwing out the same tired arguments. It's the best book. It has the best marketing. It has the best release date. yadda yadda yadda. Each movie has done worse than the last, and the last book didn't sell as well as expected, I believe. Also, something that you definitely never take into consideration, is that the market is ever changing. My Big Fat Greek Wedding's era was a lifetime ago.



Teenage girls LOVE love stories. Want proof? Go hunt down the box office for a movie called Titanic. I'll guarantee you would have been singing the same story about how teenage girls wouldn't be drawn to a movie like that, but they were...over and over. Don't underestimate the groups that you don't belong to. I wish I would have told you not to overestimate the groups that you do belong to before that xXx 2 prediction, but live and learn.

Jamie Foxx did contribute to why Ray opened as well as it did, not by his name, but by how extraordinary the performance was in many people's eyes leading up to the release. I believe in this case, reviews really helped. Actually, for any bios, I'd argue that the performance itself is much more important than who did the performance. If it had just been a mediocre movie about Ray Charles, I don't think people will care enough to rush into the theaters the opening weekend. The name of the character alone can only push a movie so far; you need people to look at the trailer as well as after watching the movie and say "wow, my god, this is Ray Charles, this is so real."

Similar case applies to Walk the Line. The leading names of Reese and Pheonix don't matter much here. What matters is if they can transform themselves on screen and make the audience believe they are watching Cash's life. By all accounts, they did, and that's a great foundation.

I think if the movie is released smartly, it will have a chance. The studio will be wise to not push this into 3000 theaters the opening weekend against HP4. Theater owners could be impatient and if they only see $5000 PTA, the chance of getting those bigger screens (400-600 seaters) in following weekends will become smaller. The studio can't afford to let the movie lose the edge at box office before the Golden Globe nominations. A pattern of 1800-2000 theaters and then expanding, which has been used by many oscar nominees recently, will be great. Unlike Ray, which I haven't seen but heard the story to be on the boring side, Walk the Line has some good romance in it and could become a crowd pleaser.

Oh, yes, you're right Maverikk. I can't wait until that week when all the teenage girls in my school starting making plans to see Walk the Line that weekend because Reese Witherspoon is in it and it it somewhat of a love story.

CAN'T WAIT.

Don't bother educating me about counter-programming, Mav. I already know what it is. I think I'll "opt out" of arguing with you, as it never goes anywhere. I'll be keeping an eye on this thread to see if facts are actually presented. Looks all opinionated so far.

Don't run off so quickly. I think the frustration in your words is because you are starting to be a believer in my words. It happens.

I'll follow Zing's example and opt out of any arguing. Why bother, the bet is made and I stand by it.

Michael is right that a slow release will be the only way for it to make it (and the only one that would make sense). I sense around 2,200 theatres with slight expansions to follow. I also fully agree with his take on the performance in the biopic. When I saw Foxx in the movie, I saw Ray Charles. The similarities were uncanny. When I see Joaquin Phoenix, I see Joaquin Phoenix simply because I don't know Johnny Cash well enough to imagine him. He also doesn't have the many distinct features like Ray Charles had them (the moves and the way he talked), at least not that the majority of people knows them.

I'll leave it at that. The oepning will be around $12.5-15 million and the total around $50-80 million depending on how good it really is.

Self-explanatory.

so whats the average opening wknd prediction?

Im thinking about bumping my opening wknd prediction to 16m, it would be in around 2600 screens and a screen average around 6,500. does that sound to high?

Zingy and I aren't arguing. I would hope that you could present a case, regardless of the bet being made, but I understand why you can't.

Also, as I've pointed out before, we're talking about an American icon here, so the people here aren't going to have the same issues of not being able to identify him that a guy who lives in Germany does. Ray Charles was more widely known the world over, but they're on equal ground here in the states.

I'm going to keep building my case, regardless, and I think many more people will see the light. You and Zingy are welcome to join the 100 million club at any time.

I already did make my case incase you missed it. Often enough. I am also not inclined to repeat myself.

When you believe your words, you've never had a problem repeating yourself. Face it, Lecter, you're trying to make these points, yet you admit that you're uneducated on the subject matter. I'd have a hard time trying to make a convincing case under those circumstances, too. I still like you and consider you my friend, though, so cheer up.

meh, what was Rays theater average?

Just incase you lose, will you say that you were uneducated on the subject matter? I mean...just incase?

2 Ray Uni. $20,039,730 - 2,006 - $9,989 $20,039,730 $40 1

And why would that make any sense? Maverikk was uneducated on Johnny Cash? You're the one who claims to be not terribly familiar with him. I don't feel you can base your opinion of this film's potential entirely on yourself. You don't know how popular he is, especially in the South.

I was raised on Country music, and had Johnny Cash in my life since as long as I can remember. I even know how to play some of his songs. I'm probably the last person anybody would think could play Johnny Cash songs, so that alone should tell you how far his reach is.

Familiar enough to make my prediction, though and stand by it. Not familiar enough to judge between $50 and $80 million. Popularity won't help too much. How many bipoics succeeded on popularity? Would you say John Nash was popular? Or Frank Abagnale (sp?) ? Or were Ray Charles and Mohammed Ali and Jim Morrison less popular than them?

Or Loretta Lynn?

You can bring in adjustion as much as you want, but it did not pass $100 million unadjusted and USUALLY people don't use unadjusted numbers in arguments here. Also, I did state above why I don't bring that one into a conversation. I do not know how the marketplace was back then when it was released...the acclaim, the awards, the competition, the circumstances etc. I know these things for WTL. That was my last word for now, now let's wait till ending of October.