I watched Hero tonight again...

I don't think foresee both Walk the Line and The Family Stone both being in the final 5, either.

It'll be interesting to see what direction WB goes in. On paper, Syriana would be my pick. I think Sony is going to realize that they have a much better chance with Memoirs of a Geisha or something else, than banking on something that the academy just isn't going to consider. Can you imagine the uproar if All the King's Men won AGAIN? Since winning is the goal, I think they'll definitely put their big push behind something else, as they'll realize their prospects aren't good with that one.

I can't see it happening with All King's Men either with all the reasons already mentioned.

Would there really be that much of an uproar if All The King's Men were to win again? The original, despite its best Pic win, isn't held in the highest esteem anymore. Few have actually even seen it.

If the quality is there, I think it stands as good a chance as anything, at least in regards to securing the nomination.

On Brokeback Mountain:

"Ang Lee's best film to date; career best performances of Ledger and Gyllenhaal, amazing score and cinematography and a heartbreaking love story to boot. One word: Wow."

hm

Who says it's not highly regarded anymore? And the masses don't vote, so it doesn't matter if they've seen it or not. I'd say that most academy members know the history and the movies quite well, and they aren't going to hand out double rewards, especially with so many good films to choose from.

We're not dealing with an undisputed classic here. It never finds it's way onto any lists (good or bad). It just seems forgotten. It's not Casablanca. I don't think today's voters (who almost certainly were not voters back in '49 when it won) are going to hold its remake status against it. Today is a different time, and the original isn't some masterpiece that nobody wants to see touched.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but it just seems like a movie nobody knows exists. I've never even seen it (love the book though!), and I'm usually pretty good with seeing movies like that.

Few Best Picture winners have been remade. There's not much of a precedent, good or bad. Mutiny on the Bounty's remake was nominated (and if you've seen that, you're sure to think...."what the fuck?"). I'm struggling coming up with any other Best Picture remakes off the top of my head. (Hamlet? That doesn't really count).

Which reminds me: this isn't really a remake of the movie. It's a different adaptation of the brilliant book. "Remake" may not even be the right word for it.

Walk the Line continues to build momentum, as it was chosen to open the AFI International Film Festival.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/Notepad/20 ... 0a_pr.html

Saw a full trailer of All The Kings Men during Nip Tuck last night and it looks like it'll be The Aviator of this year ( most nods, not alot of wins ) Even if it is a remake of a past oscar winner I dont think they'll be passing this one up, plenty of technical and acting awards is in this movies future and if that would be the case it would most likely be getting a best picture nod aswell. Like yoshue said, the original wasnt some undisputed classic, it seems forgotten.

Here's David Poland's update:

Best Picture: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... cture.html

Best Director: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... ector.html

Best Actor/Supporting Actor: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... Actor.html

Best Actress/Supporting Actress: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... tress.html

Best Screenplay/Adapted Screenplay: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... nplay.html

You know a movie that isn't in the top 5 or 6 right now, but if good could surprise MDB style and take the highest honours? Match Point. I've been thinking more and more that this had serious potential. If Woody Allen can reclaim his old academy-royalty magic, look out.

Oh and on Poland-He puts Mrs. Hendersons Presents on the A-list as a top contender? Mayybe, but I don't see it for that movie myself.

Strong reviews continue for A History of Violence.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/history ... critic=all

Reviews counted: 36
Fresh: 30 Rotten: 6
Average Rating: 7.7/10

Viggo's getting a nom. It's in the bag. As far as I'm concerned, he and Phoenix are the only sure things right now.

It's even better now.

Reviews counted: 39
Fresh: 33 Rotten: 6
Average Rating: 7.8/10

I agree that Viggo is one of the frontrunners, even though some pundits are in a bit of denial about his chances.

Viggo, Ed Harris and Maria Bello have good chances at a nom.

And when the three leads and Cronenberg are attached to it, to me that smells a realistic Best Picture push.

Since this is getting more of a wide release, we'll have to wait and see how hard it hits and if it can keep going.

Regardless, I'm glad it's getting good reviews, because I have infinite respect for every single one of the people in the production from previous projects.

David Poland is underestimating Good Night and Good Luck. It looks to be a good contendor for the "indie" spot.

Viggo from the RT reviews isn't really getting any extreme acclaim thus far, in fact unless I missed one he isn't mentioned on the page once.

I really hope History of Violence is as great as im hearing and I cant wait to see it, but does it really seem like a movie that would get honored come Oscar time. Sure we might see a nod for Maria Bello and maybe Viggo ( I dont see the reivews really praising him that much like Shack said ) but I dont think a best picture nod is gonna happen, doesnt seem like the type of movie the oscars would honor.

From reviews i've read Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain is the only sure thing right now.

Underestimating Good Night and Good Luck. It looks to be a good contendor for the "indie" spot. All the King's Men... way too high. Falling for Sean Penn? Haven't we already done this for the last few years? I don't see Penn as a Russell Crowe that will push the Academy for nominating his movies year after year, didn't we learn after 21 Grams?


Fernando Meirelles and The Constant Gardner won't come *close* to the top. It's liked but not liked that much. Instead he pushes Sam Mendes down the list really far despite the fact that Mendes' film is one of the bigger releases aiming at Oscar and that Mendes' last two films have commanded a lot of attention from the Academy Awards.


I wonder if the stench of failure is going to hurt Heath Ledger... I mean his career thus far hasn't been very great. Then again... Charlize Theron. I still think it's Joaquin's year. This will be his second nomination, he's familiar to an audience of millions, he's one of America's greatest actors at the moment.

Nathan Lane won't be nominated... NO WAY.

I also disagree with his comparison of Hoffman and Strathairn. I think there's still room for Pheonix, those two, and a combo of folks like Ledger or Mortensen or Clooney or even Penn.

There's no way in hell Cheadle gets a nomination for Crash. People are more focused on Newton and Dylan.


This is a better list, although I would replace Q'orianka with Paltrow... seems like they are driving Proof hard to get her a nomination. I'm not so sure about Theron, but like every year there are only REALLY 7 or 8 good female performances for lead (unfortunately).

Uma Thurman getting a nomination for playing an over the top Swedish secretary that hardly speaks a word of english. No. it is NOT going to happen. I would say that Yeoh and Bello are the story here until some more movies come out (Supporting categories are so hard!).


He's way too high on Crash. But I would think this is the place where it would be nominated. This is going to be also the place where Munich and Good night and Good Luck have a go at it. I expect Munich to win this, sight-unseen. Apparently from what I've read about Spielberg consulting those around him, that the script is *very* good.

No for Gardnener (again, he's waaaay too high on this). Jarhead, North Country, Brokeback, Walk the Line seem solid for this. Capote's only nom will come from acting I think.

I wonder if he thinks Matt Dillon is Bob Dylan's son.

"Matt Dylan - Crash..........Hard to get in with Cheadle ahead of him"

And Phoenix is a lock. Everybody knows that. (including Poland)

Killuminati510, A History of Violence is definitely the kind of film that the academy would recognize. Any tight picture with violence and character studies as the centerpiece will go over well with them. Only two years ago, Mystic River was nominated.

I started seeing heavy bus add campaigning for North Country today. It looks to be pretty good, and the director is well liked right now after Whale Rider. I see its chances, and her chances, going up, and still think its a far more likely candidate pick for best pic nom than Brokeback Mountain.

Yeah I know, that's weird... the heat is SO not on Cheadle when it comes to Crash, if there is any, it's on Dylan and Newton and Terrance Howard (maybe in association with Hustle & Flow). Fuck, i hated the film and even I can see that

The Oscars do nominate people year after year, *sometimes* this happens, but I doubt Penn, Theron, Winslet and Cheadle, all recent nominees/winners will ALL be nominated. That just seems too convieneint

I dunno about that. There's no reason why both of them can't be nominated, but Brokeback has a lot of heat going into it at the moment, it looks like a critic fav.

North Country more of a chance then Brokeback? No way, reviews are pretty bland so far http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/north_c ... critic=all Theron does have a great chance to get nominated for best actress though.

Can you really compare Mystic River to History though? I mean the reviews make it out to be a very brutal film, Mystic River seems like G rated stuff compared to History of Violence.