Labor Day: Let's get the party started.
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Snrub
Vagina Qwertyuiop
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:14 pm
Posts: 8767
Location: Great Living Standards
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 dolcevita wrote: Well now that I've seen Corpse Bride, I have to say its a shoe-in for Oscar Win in animation. There are several reasons behind this.
1. Stop-Animation needs to get a win eventually, because animation industry wants to remain diversified. So far they've given some to 3D Animation, and one to Anime. They passed over a sketchy French Canadian film, but oh well, 2D will rise again. But for now, they'll give it to stop-animation, as one of the most beloved yet under noticed animation styles. That leaves this and Wallace & Gromit, which I assume will at least get a nom.
2. Burton needs a nod eventually. They'll give it to him here, as they seem to perpetually not like his movies quite enough to warrant any of the BIG (actor/actress/direction/picture) nominations. He's also got Chocolate Factory this year that was well recieved. Its his year. I thought he'd at least get some noms for Big Fish, but when that didn't happen, I think the industry is looking to reward him in a less traditional field.
3. There's still a few coming out this year, but to date, there hasn't been a single inspiring animation release. Robots and Co. have been barely breaking fresh on review scales, and their numbers have all been weak. With Chocolate Factory taking 200 million, and Corpse Bride Rivaling any of the box office grosses thus far this year, both getting higher critical acclaim, there's really not even any competition as far as animation movies this year. Barring Wallace and Gromit, which I haven't seen, this will not only get a nom, but get the win. Wallace And Gromit really is the wildcard right now. I'd love nothing more than for Corpse Bride to win every award under the sun, so hopefully W&G will be a resounding failure, critically and financially... still, something's telling me that 5 months from now Nick Park will be walking away with another Oscar...
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| Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:25 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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List of top contenders, from Gold Derby:
BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Goodnight, and Good Luck
Jarhead
Memoirs of a Geisha
Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
Munich
Walk the Line
Maybe: All the King's Men, Cinderella Man, Constant Gardener, Crash, The Family Stone, King Kong, Matchpoint, New World, North Country, The Producers, Rent, Syriana
BEST ACTOR
Eric Bana, Munich
Jake Gyllenhaal, Jarhead
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Tommy Lee Jones, Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Viggo Mortensen, A History of Violence
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Goodnight, and Good Luck
Maybe: Kevin Bacon (Where the Truth Lies), Peter Falk (The Thing About My Folks), Ralph Fiennes (Constant Gardener), Cillian Murphy (Breakfast on Pluto), Sean Penn (All the King's Men)
BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha
Maybe: Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger), Jennifer Aniston (Rumor Has It), Cate Blanchett (Litte Fish), Diane Keaton (The Family Stone), Q'Orianka Kilcher (The New World), Kiera Knightley (Pride and Prejudice), Julianne Moore (Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio), Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof)
_________________ Best Actress 2008
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| Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:22 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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Wow, Rod... you've been hitting the right note all along.
Brokeback Mountain is shaping up to be one hell of a contender I never expected.
Along with two other small independents, Capote and Good Luck, and Good Night, it seems to be stealing the early Oscar thunder!
I'm really thinking that one of those 3 films will get nominated for Best Picture!
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:51 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am
Posts: 15310
Location: Slumming at KJ
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Just saw a TV ad for North Country, and WB is already working it. Before they showed and listed the name of every principle actor, they had "Adademy Award Winner" or "Academy Award Nominee" right above the name.
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| Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:52 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40247
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Yeah Brokeback is heating up pretty nicely.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:57 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada has no chance for Best Picture. It's too entirely small. Unless it picks up a major distributor.
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| Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:05 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am
Posts: 15310
Location: Slumming at KJ
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Here's a very interesting article about A History of Violence. This seems to be the Mystic River/Million Dollar Baby entry this year, as it apparently has disturbing qualities to it. (in a good way)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050919/ap_ ... MlJVRPUCUl
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| Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:21 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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I'm tellin' ya. Either The New World or A History of Violence... don't write off New Line!
Transamerica is taking a tough beating in some articles (posted on Oscarwatch forums).
Here's my thinking over the last few days:
Bet on it
001 Walk The Line (20th Century Fox)
002 Munich (Universal/Dreamworks)
Probably
003 Memoris of a Geisha (Sony)
Potentials
004 Brokeback Mountain (Focus)
005 Jarhead (Universal)
Look out for these
006 A History of Violence (New Line)
007 Good Night, and Good Luck (Warner)
008 The New World (New Line)
Has "big" problems/issues but wouldn't be impossible
009 The Producers (Universal) [remake/comedy]
010 All The King's Men [remake]
011 Capote (Sony Pictures Classic) [small studio]
012 Crash [super early release date]
013 King Kong (Universal) [remake/fantasy]
014 The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada [super small studio]
Never Gonna Happen
015 Shopgirl (Buena Vista/20th Century Fox) [won't hit the academy members correctly]
016 Rent (Sony) [secondary musical]
017 Transamerica [Transexuals/some bad word of mouth]
I Have No Clue
xxx The Family Stone (20th Century Fox) [maybe not because of Walk the Line]
xxx Syriana (Warner Bros.) [watch out, Warner is not pushing much this year!]
xxx North Country
Wouldn't it be cool?
xxx March of the Penguins
Last edited by andaroo1 on Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:04 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40247
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Jarhead is Bet On It I think. It seems to be the #1 contender.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:37 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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I agree. Jarhead seems to be the best contender at this point.
Walk the Line is a shoe in for the lead acting categories and the strength of its buzz and chances in the big races will undoubtedly make it a big contender in the Best Picture race. However, I think the closest movie to a lock is Jarhead. It has all the makings of a great Oscar nominee including directing, genre, acting (promising new stars plus oscar veterans).
I highly suggest taking Munich off the lock list. We still don't know anything about the movie other than the name: Steven Speilberg. I agree, odds are in favor of its nomination, but it's the one movie we know least about!!
As weird as it may sound, I personally think that Felicity Huffman's win at the Emmys hurt Transamerica or at least her chance of getting something for it. I'm not saying there were huge possibilities before. But now that she did win unexpectdely, they may not pay as much attention to rewarding her again this year.
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:25 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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The only reason why I haven't really considered Three Burials in the past is because it didn't have a steady release date or even a distributor.
And while the film still has many things going against it (small film, I think half of it will be in Spanish) it will be a contender for best picture, though I don't actually expect it to end up in the topp 5.
Tommy Lee Jones, however, will be a strong contender i8n the best actor race now as well.
_________________Best Actress 2008
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:29 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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BTW, Dan Rather was on Larry King Live... I just happened upon it.
He just gave a *super* glowing review of Good Night, and Good Luck.
He says that it's a great movie even out of context of journalism but that the audience would learn a lot about what it was really like.
If Dan Rather likes it... then it has to have some substance.
Shack wrote: Jarhead is Bet On It I think. It seems to be the #1 contender. If you look at everything... media, etc. really Walk the Line is the film that's walking away with the buzz. Munich has this assumed things, it only has to partially deliver to be worth it.
Jarhead has a ton going for it, but it's not a sure thing yet, and could easily falter.
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:36 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40247
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Walk the Line has been getting alot of "Good, but not absolutely great. Joaquin Phoenix gives a pleasing Cash, but the real standout here is Reese Witherspoon who completley shines as June Carter."
I think it will be nominated for BP, but it basicly has no chance of winning against Jarhead or Munich.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:48 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Shack wrote: Walk the Line has been getting alot of "Good, but not absolutely great. That's a bit of a stretch. Walk the Line's reception has been pretty extremely heavy great and is poised to probably be the only popular favorite. A Best Actor + Best Actress combo can push a picture to a win. The acting branch of the Academy is insanely influential. Quote: I think it will be nominated for BP, but it basicly has no chance of winning against Jarhead or Munich. Explain this. Not their stats, those should be mentioned. They both have stats in spades (although there is a potential studio conflict between them). But aside from two really great reviews of Jarhead and Munich they are virtually unknown.
I see no reason why Walk the Line cannot win Best Picture if the reviews we see represent the general feeling. The Best Picture winner is often not really considered the "best" of the batch of nominees. Sometimes it's the only nominee that there seems to be agreement on.
The pictures with the word of mouth at the moment are mostly Walk the Line, Brokeback Mountain and Good Night and Good Luck. The later two actually have wins attached to them.
Last edited by andaroo1 on Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:54 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am
Posts: 15310
Location: Slumming at KJ
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Shack wrote: Walk the Line has been getting alot of "Good, but not absolutely great. Joaquin Phoenix gives a pleasing Cash, but the real standout here is Reese Witherspoon who completley shines as June Carter."
I think it will be nominated for BP, but it basicly has no chance of winning against Jarhead or Munich. I don't know where it's been getting that reaction. Got any links?
Also, Jarhead and Munich haven't even been screened yet. How on Earth does it have no chance against two films that might suck when Walk the Line has been getting raves?
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:58 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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And it's clear I'm having a problem with English tonight.
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:00 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40247
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'If the reviews we see represent the general feeling'
You just answered your own question. If you go by the reviews, this is on the same graded level as Ray about. This has more buzz because the spotlight was opened up by that movie, and also this has two well-known names giving worthy performances. Most of the buzz is centered around the acting, not necessarily how good the movie is.
Jarhead on the other hand from the few reviews we have has been said to be excellent. Mr. American Beauty Sam Mendes brings satarical moments, good performances, controversy, and just an overall vibe of efficiency.
For Munich we're just going by a name, Spielburg. The subject matter is also a go-getter.
I think Walk the Line goes with Memoirs a Geisha for being in the top 5 of most likely to be nominated, but not the top 5 most likely winners. In that issue Memoirs isn't even top 10 in my mind as they'll never give it to that movie. For actually winning I put it as: 1. Jarhead, 2. Munich, 3. Brokeback Mountain, 4. The New World, 5. King Kong , 6.Good Night and Good Luck, 7. Syrinia, 8. Walk the Line.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:06 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Shack wrote: You just answered your own question. No? Quote: If you go by the reviews, this is on the same graded level as Ray about. Not at all... People weren't as insane about the FILM as they were Jamie Foxx. You are seeing what you want to see out of the reviews. You are not taking it in whole. People have been actually writing articles about the direction and shots, the story. Quote: This has more buzz because the spotlight was opened up by that movie, and also this has two well-known names giving worthy performances. By this logic... Ray is Moulin Rouge and Walk the Line is like Chicago. Quote: Jarhead on the other hand from the few reviews we have has been said to be excellent. Mr. American Beauty Sam Mendes brings satarical moments, good performances, controversy, and just an overall vibe of efficiency. You sound like a billboard now. Look, Jarhead is in my top 5, and I expect great things from it. I have been looking forward to it all year. But honestly, the buzz just isn't quite with it yet, and that is making me a little nervous being that all these other films are starting to get screened and there are still massive question marks hanging over films like Jarhead, Giesha, and especially The New World and Munich. Quote: For Munich we're just going by a name, Spielburg. The subject matter is also a go-getter. The subject matter is also a turn off, and if handled incorrectly (which is possible) then things can go south really quickly. Jarhead is also massively political, which can hurt it.
Never downplay the popular favorite, and of the selection, Walk the Line will be the film with the least amount of controversy and barring something weird like Penguins or Kong being nominated (a GREAT stretch) it will probably be the BO champ of the bunch. We all know it's (in your opinion, "Ray good") and based on how much the general populace would choose Ray over any other of the Best Picture nominated films of last year, I don't know why that comparison (even if I think it's unfair) is necessarily a bad thing.
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| Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:18 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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The Film Experience's updated predictions:
Picture
1. Jarhead
2. Brokeback Mountain
3. Walk the Line
4. Family Stone
5. All the King's Men
Director
1. Sam Mendes, Jarhead
2. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
3. Woody Allen, Match Point
4. Steve Zaillian, All the King's Men
5. David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
Actor
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
2. Sean Penn, All The King's Men
3. Ralph Fiennes, Constant Gardener / White Countess
4. Tommy Lee Jones, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
5. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Actress
1. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
3. Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
4. Joan Allen, Upside of Anger
5. Charlie Theron, North Country
Supporint Actor
1. Peter Sarsgaard, Jarhead
2. Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents
3. Barry Pepper, Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
4. Clifton Collins Jr, Capote
5. Matt Dillon, Crash
Supporting Actress
1. Shirley Maclaine, In Her Shoes / Rumor Has It
2. Toni Collette, In Her Shoes
3. Maria Bello, A History of Violence
4. Q'Orianka Kilcher, The New World
5. Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener
Original Screenplay
1. Crash
2. Match Point
3. Family Stone
4. Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
5. Good Night, and Good Luck
Adapted Screenplay
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Jarhead
3. Shopgirl
4. In Her Shoes
5. All the King's Men
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| Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:13 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40247
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They're surprisingly quite pro-All the King's Men. Maybe we shouldn't count that movie out actually.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:21 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am
Posts: 15310
Location: Slumming at KJ
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xiayun wrote: The Film Experience's updated predictions: Picture1. Jarhead 2. Brokeback Mountain 3. Walk the Line 4. Family Stone 5. All the King's Men The Family Stone getting some love. I think it's definitely one to keep an eye on. I don't see a remake like All the King's Men getting anything outside of acting. Director1. Sam Mendes, Jarhead 2. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain 3. Woody Allen, Match Point 4. Steve Zaillian, All the King's Men 5. David Cronenberg, A History of Violence Still not sure about anything but acting getting recognized for All the King's Men. I do think Cronenberg is a good bet, along with A History of Violence, which seems to be this year's Mystic River. Actor1. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line 2. Sean Penn, All The King's Men 3. Ralph Fiennes, Constant Gardener / White Countess 4. Tommy Lee Jones, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada 5. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain Unless Tommy Lee Jones gets some muscle behind a campaign, I don't see him scoring anything. Clooney is far more likely.Actress1. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line 2. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents 3. Diane Keaton, The Family Stone 4. Joan Allen, Upside of Anger 5. Charlie Theron, North Country All are very possible, and I'm surprised to see the unjustly forgotten Joan Allen making a list.Supporint Actor1. Peter Sarsgaard, Jarhead 2. Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents 3. Barry Pepper, Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada 4. Clifton Collins Jr, Capote 5. Matt Dillon, Crash I have always believed that Matt Dillon would last and receive a nom for Crash. Not sure about the rest, as none of them are on my radar.Supporting Actress1. Shirley Maclaine, In Her Shoes / Rumor Has It 2. Toni Collette, In Her Shoes 3. Maria Bello, A History of Violence 4. Q'Orianka Kilcher, The New World 5. Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener I think Maria Bello is a good possibility, as are Collette, who is really a lead, and Maclaine, who'll definitely get a nom for one of those films.Original Screenplay1. Crash 2. Match Point 3. Family Stone 4. Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada 5. Good Night, and Good Luck Those would be my picks.Adapted Screenplay1. Brokeback Mountain 2. Jarhead 3. Shopgirl 4. In Her Shoes 5. All the King's Men I could see Steve Martin getting a nom for Shopgirl. Again, I don't see All the King's Men getting nominations thrown at it in all the major categories. Not bad picks, but they've ignored some surer bets, I believe.
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| Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:55 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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I don't quite get the idea that they say that Cronenberg is a huge contendor for Director but that A History of Violence is really far down on the best picture ranks. I don't care either way... but the two categories have an incredibly strong link.
Meaning if you say "x has a great chance at best picture" then that film's director also has a really strong chance at a Best Director nom. And visa versa.
Also the justification for Woody Allen (that Cannes embraced him) has a special meaning in Woody's case, because Europeans tend to be kinder to Woody Allen films than Americans.
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| Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:58 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am
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Location: Slumming at KJ
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andaroo wrote: I don't quite get the idea that they say that Cronenberg is a huge contendor for Director but that A History of Violence is really far down on the best picture ranks. I don't care either way... but the two have an incredibly strong link. I don't see why, either. WAY too focused on their misguided belief that All the King's Men, a movie that is a remake of an Oscar winner, is going to clean up just because of the great cast. The cast might get some recognition, but the story has already got it's recognition. Syriana doesn't even get a mention...lol
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| Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:03 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Yeah. I mostly don't believe that Sony is going to push the shakey All The King's Men... as you said, a remake of a Best Picture winner over their other (stronger) competitor Memoris of a Geisha, which has been a potential contendor before anything else in this thread.
Memoris has potential of being incredibly tech heavy as well.
Sony pushing Memoris of a Geisha, All the King's Men, Capote AND Rent? We gotta pick and choose folks. If anybody is getting multiple nominations this year it's Universal (Munich, Jarhead, The Producers, King Kong, etc.).
Also, The Family Stone is 20th Century Fox... Walk the Line is 20th Century Fox. I hope it's good, but I don't think they will both fall on the same ballot.
Between North Country, Syriana and Good Night and Good Luck, Warner has a very indie looking set of films that are all seemingly fighting for a similar (older, intelligent, metropolitan, liberal) audience.
Last edited by andaroo1 on Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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| Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:12 am |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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andaroo wrote: Wouldn't it be cool?
xxx March of the Penguins No. 
The rest of your wrap up sounds pretty good though.
Can you please now elaborate on "Mwuhahahahah"! I'm still scratching my head over this.....
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| Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:25 am |
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