Released too early? (late summer). Not as much of a box office hit as it was supposed to be? Maybe a little too dark? Actors carrying other films? Sometimes you will notice a picture like Sideways, pushed by the indie folk, Million Dollar pushed by the critics, Ray pushed by the public, The Aviator pushed as an old-Hollywood-presige picture and Finding Neverland pushed as a literary film. Despite the lack of a real b.o. performer last year, there are a lot of conventions here. Sometimes that doesn't leave much room for anything else to get nominated.

Remember that Academy members, all of them, vote on best picture nominees (just for nominations). It's the only category that every single academy member gets to vote on, and they only get to put three choices on their ballot. If Road to Perdition, because of personal tastes, politics, etc. isn't on that top 3 then it is effectively shut out of a BP nomination.

Schindler's List was nominated, yet it was dark.

same with saving private ryan

million dollar baby was very dark

shawshank was mostly dark, etc.

RTP made barely over 100 million dollars, which is more than List and Baby.


Of course this is all opinion. For a film like Road to Perdition, having a lower box office is more of a problem because of its status as a wide release, big studio picture, a-list star, etc.. A $150 million performance would have pretty much secured its status as a Best Picture nominee. Ray wouldn't have gone anywhere without its box office performance.

Mystic River doesn't fall into that same bracket (although Mystic had a HUGE box office). It really depends picture to picture. I would say this year Box Office is important for Jarhead, The New World (although since it moved this is a big question mark) and films like The Producers and to an extent it even tugs at pictures like A History of Violence. But Munich and Match Point? Brokeback Mountain? All The King's Men? It doesn't tug on them the same way.

The same list of issues are not applied to every film in the same way. The Constant Gardener can be a huge Oscar success if it can keep going with word of mouth and general buzz, but this isn't happening. This is life. This is why 95% of the Best Picture nominees are usually released in Nov or Dec.

I think the top contenders right now are...

Joaquin Pheonix
Heath Ledger
Philip Seymor Hoffman
Viggo Mortensen
Jason Strathairn
Ralph Fiennes
Jake Gyllenhaal
Sean Penn
George Clooney
Eric Bana

In that order.

This year seems much less predictable than less one, to be honest with the only lock seeming to be Joaquin Phoenix.

My predictions:

Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
Eric Bana - Munich
Jake Gyllenhaal - Jarhead
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain (is he lead or supporting?)
Colin Farrell - The New World

Sean Penn is the wildcard at this moment, IMO. As far as the winner goes...Phoenix or Gyllenhaal, I'd say.

Really? I think Hoffman is about to become the next safest bet behing Phoenix (who was on the cover of this weeks Time Magazine btw).