Here's a review of North Country.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/reviews/north_country.html

RT also has a few that support the same feeling.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/north_country/?show=all

You're forgetting about the almighty King Kong!

Also: Match Point, The Weather Man(nobodys saying it but I believe it can do it), and on the outside Shopgirl.

Ah yes. I did forget King Kong. I had it in mind when I started writing but completely forgot about it!
I really don't think The Weather Man will get in. I don't know why they pushed it back half a year when they had already started advertising it, but it looks to be way more of a character drama than a strong Best Picture nod in the making.

Match Point is below the radar at this point. I had never heard of it until I started going over every single release till the end of the year. And I still forget. I look at the synopsis every time but it doesn't stick (something about tennis, forgot if it was a drama or a romance). It just looks too small at this point, but it's definitely in that "under the radar" category. I'd place Shopgirl there too, except, personally, I don't see it. I think Shopgirl's best chance is at writing because it's based on Steve MArtin's own written story I believe and if it's really good writing it's because he was on the project and adapted it very smoothly. It seesmt o me it's maybe trying to fit that "Lost in Translation" mold but that movie getting nominated was something that happens once in a blue moon and it was significantly helped by the name Sofia Coppola (more than the name Bill Murray).

Yeah Shopgirl I personally see Danes getting an oscar nom, but BP is unlikely.

Shopgirl won't get a single nomination. Mark my words.

Agreed.

When Snrub and Zingaling agree, there's just no chance whatsoever.

The Family Stone could be a movie to keep an eye on.

http://hollywoodreporter.com/thr/search ... 1001097749

I've been saying that for weeks now!!!

Good to know that I'm not crazy.

http://hollywoodreporter.com/thr/articl ... 1001138163

Toronto can be a cruel winnower. With awards season looming, a contingent from the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn., which votes for the ever-influential Golden Globes, as well as a sizable corps of film critics and journalists all checked out the fall film lineup.

Celebrity press such as Us Weekly and "Entertainment Tonight" breathlessly tracked early Oscar contenders Reese Witherspoon ("Walk the Line"), Charlize Theron ("North Country") and Gwyneth Paltrow ("Proof"). The usually thin ranks of best actress possibilities swelled with the likes of Keira Knightley of "Pride & Prejudice," Cameron Diaz of "In Her Shoes" and Judi Dench of "Mrs. Henderson Presents."

Judging by the reactions of both audiences and critics, "Walk the Line," "Capote" and "Brokeback Mountain" took the lead in the early Oscar fray, while such awards hopefuls as "Bee Season," "Elizabethtown" and "Oliver Twist" ran into resistance.

Roger Ebert on The Toronto Film Festival's potential nominees:

I’ve already written about Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Oscar- lock with his performance in “Capote.” The problem is, there are way more than five obvious candidates in every category. To make a list is to leave out work as good as the work you mention.


(Enlarge Image)Joaquin Phoenix could be nominated for “Walk the Line,” and MacLaine for “Shoes,” Ledger for “Brokeback,” Charlize Theron for “North Country,” Cillian Murphy for “Breakfast on Pluto,” Gwyneth Paltrow for “Proof,” and Claire Danes for “Shopgirl” and Catherine Keener for three different pictures, and Judi Dench for “Mrs. Henderson Presents,”

I don't think A History of Violence will get anything. It will be this year's The Woodsman.

I think A History Of Violence will show up somewhere. The Woodsman was just too small a movie. I think Ed Harris and Maria Bello could show up in supporting categories.

A History of Violence and The Woodsman have nothing in common. Woodsman was never a contender, at any point.

Here's some IN HER SHOES comments from Jeff Wells (Not the most reliable source but, hey, its good to get opinions:

"I saw Curtis Hanson's In Her Shoes (20th Century Fox, 10.7) this morning and it got me. It's "commercial," yes, but not in the pat sense of that term -- this is the best classy chick flick since Terms of Endearment, and they both have award-level Shirley MacLaine performances. Once you get past the first half-hour, which has a rote, almost sitcommy flavor and is all about showing us what an infantile self-destructive screw-up Cameron Diaz's character is (and why her older sister, played by Toni Collete, is perfectly justified in wanting her out of her life), In Her Shoes starts to touch bottom when Diaz visits her long-lost grandmother (MacLaine) at a Florida old-folks home, and then it takes off and starts getting better and sadder and wiser and more touching. This is not an Armond White movie, but it's exceptional nonetheless. It's going to get every woman in the country and a lot of guys, it may wind up as as a Best Picture nominee, and this is MacLaine's year, I think, to win another one. Collette and Diaz will probably also be nominated in their respective categories (which may be different), and Hanson also as Best Director. This sounds gushy, I realize, but trust me -- Shoes works the way a big-studio, high-pedigree, lay-the-groundwork-and-then-make- them-feel-it emotional drama should. Hanson knew exactly what he was doing. "

Of course Hanson knew what he was doing. It's my firm belief that Curtis Hanson ALWAYS knows what he is doing. He's one of our underrated teasures.

The same could be said about history of violence and not being a contender at all

the only thing that it benefits from is that it could be seen by more people than the almost not-seen-at-all Woodsman.

But it seems to have lost almost all the buzz it gained at Cannes, and the reviews, while almost all positive aren't really extraordinary like they were for the woodsman, and in fact mostly call it one of the director's weaker efforts. viggo is not getting the kind of reviews bacon got for the woodsman either, and it's early release date (the woodsman was released too LATE in the year, you could argue) make me think it will be forgotten come oscar time.

A History of Violence reminds me of The Cooler. I think Ed Harris will get a nomination like Alec Baldwin did, but I also think Maria Bello won't miss out on one this time.

First off, before I start, let me just say I don't think A History of Violence will be that great or even small of a contender at the Oscars. It's only real shots, in my opinion, are Lead Actor and Supporting Actress.

Now... I don't think you could really compare Violence with Woodsman as far as Oscar contenders go. In actuality, they do have some similarities... trying to live a life with the past constantly haunting you (at least on the very surface). The Woodsman was, first off, released WAY too late and completely lost in the shuffle. It was too small of a film and not that big of a power-draw actor to find itself. It's the kind of movie that needed slow building up in word of mouth and buzz.

A History of Violence is the exact opposite for seeming to be the most comparitive player this year to the Woodsman last year. IT got alot of buzz early on and it's release date may still be too early. However, awareness, overall is much higher and possibilities are immensely greater than The Woodsman ever had. I think Violence still has potential to carry on into the Oscar season if it starts winning some prizes or at least getting strong mentions. If it gets middle-of-the-road buzz from here on out, box-office is going to be its make-it or break-it factor. If the public doesn't seem too interested or sin't talking about it as much as other buzzed releases, the press will play it down and could be an integral factor in removing it from the race.


In reponse to Libs' post: I don't think Ed Harris will get a nod. He just doesn't seem like a pivotal character that is goven anything really important or Oscar-worthy to do. Then again, I have yet to see the film.

I think Viggo will have a decent chance to get in the short list of actors come nominations day. The buzz for the movie will carry Maria Bello to a nomination or not.

This year's Oscar race is so weird. It's still way too early to tell ANYTHING!!!

I do agree with you about Maria Bello being a strong contender, from everything I've read, but I think Ed Harris, a career supporting actor, who has already received 4 Oscar noms, won't be getting a nomination this year, but if he does, it would be hard to bet against him not winning after all those shutouts. Cronenberg and Viggo have ligit shots at a nom, I believe.

The film has a strong rating and good reviews out of the gate, and I can't imagine a movie with this subject matter, and strong performances, getting snubbed if these kinds of reviews keep coming in.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/history ... critic=all

I saw Proof today.

I really liked it. I thought it was great.
Gwyneth Paltrow really delivers. I mean, she REALLY nails this performance. She is so good. And all the supporting players are really great too. Hope Davis and Gyllenhaal all have their moments. Anthony Hopkins shines too.

All in all, it was really just a great movie.
I don't know how it would have faired if released later in the year. I think it's one of those small gems that really catch some people's attention. But, in the end, it's not enough of a heavyweight to really get in the Best Pciture race. It also seemed kind of short when all was said and done. But, if played out right in the Oscar season, they could get a couple of acting noms out of this. I REALLY hope Paltrow gets a nod for this one. I'm hearing she wants to leave acting...

I almost feel like the performances were too great for this amazingly modest film. The acting really makes the movie and ties the great story all in together.

Well now that I've seen Corpse Bride, I have to say its a shoe-in for Oscar Win in animation. There are several reasons behind this.

1. Stop-Animation needs to get a win eventually, because animation industry wants to remain diversified. So far they've given some to 3D Animation, and one to Anime. They passed over a sketchy French Canadian film, but oh well, 2D will rise again. But for now, they'll give it to stop-animation, as one of the most beloved yet under noticed animation styles. That leaves this and Wallace & Gromit, which I assume will at least get a nom.

2. Burton needs a nod eventually. They'll give it to him here, as they seem to perpetually not like his movies quite enough to warrant any of the BIG (actor/actress/direction/picture) nominations. He's also got Chocolate Factory this year that was well recieved. Its his year. I thought he'd at least get some noms for Big Fish, but when that didn't happen, I think the industry is looking to reward him in a less traditional field.

3. There's still a few coming out this year, but to date, there hasn't been a single inspiring animation release. Robots and Co. have been barely breaking fresh on review scales, and their numbers have all been weak. With Chocolate Factory taking 200 million, and Corpse Bride Rivaling any of the box office grosses thus far this year, both getting higher critical acclaim, there's really not even any competition as far as animation movies this year. Barring Wallace and Gromit, which I haven't seen, this will not only get a nom, but get the win.

I guess Constant Gardener is officially dead in the water.

It's a shame, too; I finally finished it, and it's head-and-shoulders above anything else I've seen this year. Fiennes and Weisz are equally deserving of recognition, as it the film. Meirelles is a great director, and I can't wait to see where he goes next.

Dolce, that's great to hear about Corpse Bride. I, too, think it's a lock as of now. The only qualifier to that is the potential for a major box office belly-flop. But this weekend's PSA, plus the general upbeat tone of the reviews should bring about at least a moderate gross. But Oscar doesn't like a flop.

Jeffrey Wells' personal favorite Toronto films and analysis of their oscar and commercial prospects:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/

1. Brokeback Mountain: I didn't expect to be as moved as I was. Not a "gay cowboy" movie, but a film about the costs of love denied and lost. My idea of a profoundly sad film, and obviously a love story of a strikingly original cast... certainly in terms of multiplex movies. Oscar potential: A probable Best Picture candidate (if it doesn't tank financially). Ditto Ang Lee for Best Director. Heath Ledger, who gives the best performance of his career here, will almost certainly snag a Best Actor nom. Commercial prospects: No telling, although I'd like to say quality sells itself and let it go at that. I know this movie is a kind of break- through, and therefore a marketing challenge as far as the cultural foot-draggers are concerned.

2. No Direction Home: Bob Dylan: An electrifying music-history saga, a powerful American epic and Martin Scorsese's finest film since My Voyage in Italy. Oscar prospects: It's not going out theatrically so Oscar doesn't figure. Commercial potential: The numbers for the doc's PBS airing on 9.26 and 9.27 should be huge; ditto the sales and rental for the DVD (in stores on Tuesday, 9.20).

3. Capote: Searing, fascinating drama about a writer who pours his heart out and uses every ploy in the book to produce a groundbreaking novel, but loses his soul in the process. So deft and mature it's almost like Louis Malle directed it. Oscar prospects: Phillip Seymour Hoffman's performance as Truman Capote is an absolute lock for a Best Actor nomination, and I really think the film is good enough to be in the running for a Best Picture nomination. Clifton Collins, Jr. deserves a nom for Best Supporting Actor, Bennett Miller for Best Director, and Dan Futterman for Best Adapted Screenplay. Commercial potential: Everyone who's ever heard the name "Truman Capote" is going to want to see Hoffman. One of those films that every semi-educated soul over the age of 25 or 26 is going to have to see...right?

4. Tsotsi: Emotionally pungent drama about the spiritual awakening of a socio- pathic teenage killer after he finds an infant boy in the back seat of a car he's stolen. Winner of Toronto Film Festival's audience award. Oscar prospects: A shoo-in for Best Foreign Language Film (it's spoken in "Tsotsi-taal," a mixture of several tongues), but obviously only if it gets picked up right away and pushed into theatres before 12.31. Commercial potential: A toughie...will depend very much on word-of-mouth, reviews, how good the marketing campaign is, etc.

5. A History of Violence: David Cronenberg's strongest and most commercial film since The Fly. Oscar prospects: Limited, although William Hurt could push through with a Best Supporting Actor nomination. Commerical potential: On the modest side.

6. In Her Shoes: Best upscale chick flick since Terms of Endearment. Oscar prospects: Forget what Manohla Dargis or Stephanie Zacharek may or may not say about it -- the fact that it emotionally connects means Shoes could go all the way and land noms for Best Picture, Best Director (Curtis Hanson), Best Screen- play, Best Actress (Toni Collette), etc. An assured Best Supporting Actress nom for Shirley MacLaine. Commercial potential: Very big, although Fox is going to have to work hard at first to sell it to the women who don't read reviews, or who move their lips when they do.

7. Walk the Line: Admirably pared-down, ultra-believable Johnny Cash biopic...rooted and steady on its feet. Oscar prospects: Guaranteed Best Actor and Best Actress noms for Joaquin Pheonix and Reese Witherspoon; possible Best Picture and Best Director (James Mangold). Commercial potential: I don't think it's going to do what Ray did, but reasonably spirited business seems likely.

8. Thank You for Smoking: Sharp, clever, quippy...lacking in emotional gravitas. Oscar prospects: Not that kind of thing. Commercial potential: Good to pretty good.

9. Mrs. Henderson Presents: Not a massive home run but a very brisk serving of semi-effete British humor in a perky period vein. A lively near-perfect film for the over-30 (or do I really mean over-40?) crowd. Oscar prsopects: A better-than- decent chance of Dame Judy Dench landing a Best Actress nomination...if the Weinstein Co. campaigns hard and smart for it. Commercial potential: Rather good.

10. Sketches of Frank Gehry: Sydney Pollack's doc is a highly intelligent look at an exceptional man, and a profound contact high. Oscar prospects: There's no theatrical distribution deal, and even if it lands one it may be too late (or so I understand) due to Academy rule about August deadline. Commercial potential: The only viewing opportunity for sure right now is a PBS "American Masters" airing in the fall of '06.

11. Why We Fight: Eugene Jarecki's doc about the carrot-and-stick relationship between American interventionism over the decades and the military-industrial complex is utterly fascinating, well-sculpted, and stirring. Oscar prospects: Good potential to figure among the Best Feature Doc nominees. Commercial potential: Good.

As for the rest...

Good, Fairly Good, Decent: Mary (dir: Abel Ferrara), Cache (dir: Michael Haneke), Tristram Shandy (dir: Michael Winterbottom...although I'm leaning on the word of trusted sources, as I was shut out of the press screening last Monday), Everything is Illuminated (dir: Liev Schreiber), Imagine Me and You (dir: Ol Parker), L'enfer (dir: Davis Tanovic), Vers le Sud (dir: Laurent Cantet).

Shortfalls: North Country, Stoned, John & Jane, Romance & Cigarettes, Lie With Me.

Near-wipeout: Elizabethtown...but an obit would be premature at this stage, as a re-edit is in the works.

Wipeouts: Tideland, Revolver, Wassup Rockers, The Cabin Movie, Mrs. Harris.

If only the music grabbd me...: The Devil and Daniel Johnston.

Gloob gloob: Shopgirl, The President's Last Bang, The White Masai, Mistress of Spices, Sorry Haters.

Martyr-Ball: The War Within, Paradise Now

Missed 'Em: Leonard Cohen: I'm Your Man, Iberia, Tristram Shandy, The Matador, Edison, Jesus is Magic, The World's Fastest Indian, The Proposition, The Notorious Bettie Page, Wah-Wah, Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride (didn't care that much about seeing this one), Oliver Twist, Bee Season.

At this point, I don't think those two nominations are even in question. They'll definitely make the top 5 in their respective categories, and I also expect the film and director to get recognition. I also believe that Reese and Joaquin will win.

It's nice to see a year where a lot of films we were predicting to deliver delivered, especially the fall releases. Elizabethtown seems to be the only high-profile failure so far (still has a chance of recovery, but the hit it took is pretty hard). Oliver Twist is out of any contention too, but people weren't predicting a lot for it anyway.

Having not seen the film, I agree.


The one surprise is In Her Shoes. I never had a doubt that it would be a good movie, but I never thought it'd be a serious Oscar contender, being considered a chick flick and all.

I agree. Elizabethtown still has a chance, albeit, the slimmest of chances. At this point, I'm just hoping the editing cuts they are doing makes it an enjoyable film, but I don't expect the next Jerry MaGuire or Almost Famous like I originally hoped for. Maybe it will be a nice surprise.

Speaking of surprises, I'm sure we'll have some more surpises, both good and bad, as films like A History of Violence, Syriana, Jarhead, Munich, In Her Shoes, North Country, Shopgirl, Prime, The Family Stone, Memoirs of a Geisha, All the King's Men, and Match Point come into play more prominently. It's definitely shaping up to be a great season, with more quality pictures coming out than we are used to. Even the films that probably won't be considered for any major awards, like Derailed, King Kong, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang, and Rumor Has It (and a few mentioned above), gives us movie fans plenty to be excited about.

Family Stone is a movie that could come out of nowhere I think and snag some nominations.