Ok, I can see what you mean. But then how many critics actually praised it as a movie?

I'm not really making sense here, maybe it is just my vendetta against the film.

I don't think I read one review at the time that said the film had no flaws. Most spent time talking about the brutality or The Butcher or the sets and cinematography, but when conversation drifted to the story or Leo DiCaprio or Cameron Diaz there was a lot less praise to be found.

Gangs of New York had some very great qualities, but not directing and definately not as a Best Picture. It is the single worst nominee in at least the last 10 years. Talk to Her, About Schmidt, Adaptation, The Quiet American, Frida, Far From Heaven, Road to Perdition, Catch Me If You Can, Minority Report, even Y Tu Mama Tambien... they all would have been better candidates.

Oh I'm sorry I should have clarified I was referring to "The Aviator".





Just a sample. And it is how I felt as well.

David Poland's review of Elizabethtown.

It's not looking like any awards are in it's future.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/reviews/elizabethtown.html

I didn't think there would be for some reason. Elizabethtown, for all the promotion, is just a dressed up cute love story. A guy who meets the woman of his dreams on an airplaine, right when he's experiencing a dramatic turn of events, etc.

For me? History of Violence won't get a best pic nom. It will, however, get direction and actor, which is exactly the way Gosford Park and Mulholland Drive went. Its not going to be that big a movie, but the Academy always reserves a back-up "director" nom for life-time acheivement of a person who'll never be that mainstream. This year it came down to Jarmusch and Cronenberg, and by the looks of it, Jarmusch is going to have to wait a few more years. :-(

I'm still weighing in on all the others though. There's alot of Fantasy this Year, and I don't know if it'll be considered (after the past three years) or not. If a fantasy does go through though, its not going to be any of the Summer ones. It'll be Kong or Narnia.

Walk the Line gets acting, but I'm going to hold my tongue on direction and picture nods just yet. I never have much of a clue on bp's until I've actually seen the movies. So this autumn is going to be fun!

Very fun, indeed!

Walk the Line is a lock for the top 4 categories (nominations), and I believe the two leads will definitely win for their respective categories. A History of Violence, one of my most anticipated, very well could get some major attention. I guess it's too early to tell, but it's off to a strong start. I figured that Cameron Crowe had the best chance at that lifetime acheivement award, but early reviews would never support him.

Gosford Park was a Best Picture nominee (A Beautiful Mind, In the Bedroom, Moulin Rouge!, Gosford Park, Fellowship of the Ring). Lynch got nominated instead of Luhrman.


I don't think any of the movies coming out, save for Walk the Line are going to be that big.


I think the opposite... I think A History of Violence could get a best picture nominee still but NOT a director nomination. But I'm not as sure about AHoV as I was when I wrote this last week. I do think Brokeback Mountain's chances are increasing a lot... and Good Night, and Good Luck is starting to arise (yay!)

I would say my new 5 would be:

Brokeback Mountain
Jarhead
Memoris of a Geisha
Munich
Walk the Line


Walk the Line is a sure BP nominee... As sure as anything else. probably direction too. They kind of go hand in hand, which is why I predict pictures and not necessarily directors.

I don't think Crowe is out of the running for Origional Screenplay... at least not yet.

Berardinelli thought Elizabethtown was a mess. He didn't exactly think it was bad, just that it needed major editing and a need to cut out subplots that dragged down the film.

I'm wanting to see this movie less and less, which is odd considering it was my most anticipated of the year at one point.

I'm still hoping for the best, and will still be seeing it, but other movies are starting to look better to me, too. North Country, which opens the same day as Elizabethtown, is gaining on it on my anticipated list, so I hope some better reviews start coming in soon. There was bound to be a few films that didn't quite live up to expectations, and there will probably be a few more.

You guys think Brokeback Mountain has a better bp chance than a movie, say, like North Country?

Right now, yeah, because Brokeback Mountain has a lot of good buzz going for it, and North Country is an unknown commodity, at this point. If North Country comes out firing like Brokeback Mountain did, then I'd give a certain edge to North Country, just because it's Warner Brothers, and they have money to put behind a campaign and a good track record in recent years.

Hey, Libs, and anybody else looking forward to Elizabethtown, but are a little nervous concerning it after early reviews, I have some potentially good news. The whole article is interesting...

http://www.filmfestivals.com/cgi-bin/sh ... t_id=28039

...but here's what it says about Elizabethtown...

Although Venice certainly triumphed this year as far as high-profile celebrity appearances go, Kirsten Dunst did make it to the Normandy coast to present Elizabethtown, Cameron Crowe's most personal work yet, which generally pleased the crowds though rumor has it the film will be cut by about 17 minutes before opening in the US on October 14th.

From everything I've read in the early reviews, some editing cuts are much needed.

I don't think Brokeback Mountain will get nominated for Best Picture.
But right now, it's ahead of alot of films based purely on buzz and early word of mouth.


I just recently saw the trailer for North Country. If it were to be considered in the Oscar race it would be in the genre of Erin Brockovich. But, it just didn't seem to strike that big a chord to me as far as Oscar goes. I think it looks good, but I also thought it was going to be based more on the lawsuit and the name of the case was not even mentioned in the trailer. IT seems to be one of those feel-good empowerment movies but only this one's based on historic/actual events. I don't really see any Best Picture talk in its future. At best, Best Actress and maybe Supporting Actress.

Hehe, I found myself agreeing with andaroo a lot on this year's discussion. His current five are what I have as well. I also think A History of Violence isn't nearly in as good a position as a few weeks ago, as more indie contenders such as Good Night, and Good Luck appear.

I don't see Phoenix winning for Walk the Line because Foxx won last year, also for playing a real-life musician. People will tire of that if they keep giving awards to people for playing dead musicians. Personally, I think the movie doesn't look all that good. It looks boring. I really couldn't care less about the life of Johnny Cash.

I think everyone is building up Walk the Line to a point where viewers will be underwhelmed when they finally see it.
I think there is too much expectation riding on it and the two performances which for all we know now look to be great performances but maybe not strikingly astonishing!

I think I have been looking at the last quarter's slate of releases quite a few times in the past couple of weeks to at least be fairly familiar with just about every movie being released, and more definitely with all the high profile ones.

I am just repeating it when I say the three best shots at Best Picture now seem to be Munich, Walk the Line, and Jarhead.
Now let me get into that a little deeper...
Walk the Line... all we're going on is a good looking trailer (not that amazing) and some early positive buzz. Ray could have just as much a negative effect as some may think it will a positive effect. the actings nods are more of a sure thing than BP slot.
Munich... all we're really going on is the name: Steven Speilberg. And that's just about it.
Jarhead... great early buzz, great cast, good looking trailer (so far safest bet)

So, in actuality... I'd say we have really 1 or at best 2 near locks now. Munich can easily disappoint!

Many posters and others predicting the race obviously have Memoirs of a Geisha pegged pretty high. But again, we have little to go on right now and the subject matter and production/cast of the film can be just as much a minus as it can be a plus.

Now, assuming the films listed above will take the top 4 spots (and I am fairly doubtful that all 4 will make it) we have only a select few films left on the shelf...

A History of Violence
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
The New World
The Producers

And I think that's about it (With a possible exception for All the King's Men)
And I truly believe all 6 films, at this point, have equal chance... enough pros and cons to weigh each other out.

Unless some movie, under the radar now (like White Countess or Libertine or something), really gains tremendous buzz, I think we are dealing with thesse 10 films named in this post for Best Picture!

Feel free to add, detract, and comment.

You have to remember, Joe, the academy isn't going to take your opinion or my opinion of a film under consideration. You also have to understand, that unlike Jamie Foxx, Phoenix and Witherspoon do their own singing, and that is a performance as well, and it's going to resonate with voters. Trust me on this, singing is not easy to do. If it were, everybody could do it. It takes a lot of work. Phoenix also learned to play guitar good enough to play the chords along with the band. Guitar is a hard instrument to play (I've played for over 25 years), and it's impressive that he could get to an acceptable level, or at least look like he is doing it. That kind of dedication and preparation is not going to be blown off by voters.

Here's an article about what is looking strong according to the Toronto Film Festival. Again, Elizabethtown is said to be disappointing, but they confirm that it's a work in progress with editing cuts being done.

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainmen ... 4876c.html

Winning another important award at Toronto will go a long way to strengthen Brokeback Mountain's position. Otherwise, it could become another Vera Drake, which also won Venice. (not that is a bad thing, considering VD got nominations in acting, directing, and screenplay).

Hmm, this doesn't look encouraging for Memoirs of a Geisha, as I normally hate voice-overs:

09/11/2005 6:06 AM
There's apparently some concern at Sony/Columbia about Rob Marshall's Memoirs of a Geisha (Columbia, 12.9), a pricey period drama and a presumed Oscar contender (in the costume and production design categories, at least). The story is about how a young girl (Zhang Ziyi) "transcends" her fishing-village roots and becomes one of Japan's most celebrated geishas. Research has apparently indicated that the exotic story elements (the film is set in Japan in the 1930s and '40s) aren't being understood and/or absorbed as clearly as Sony would like, so Cold Mountain director Anthony Minghella has been brought in to write some voice-over narration. Adding narration to a film isn't an absolute guarantee that the movie isn't telling its story well enough on its own terms, but let's face it -- it usually means trouble. Then again, it could mean that the test audiences who've seen it are perhaps a tad too provincial and could use a bit more schoolin' about other cultures. I have to be honest and say I've never been very hot about seeing this film. I could go on and on, but tracking the intrigues of a Japanese hottie who makes her way up the ladder by providing sexual excitement for rich guys...I don't know.

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/

I still hear that movie title being repeatedly mentioned on Oscar night. The academy sometimes embraces movies that aren't "understood" by everybody else. As far as voice overs go, last year's big winner had narration, so I don't know why they would think it means trouble. It's just a tool, like a flashback scene is a tool.

Well, it's not really the most creative tool!
Also... aside from ebing in english, some of the cast is chinese learning how to play japanese; add English into the mix and it will take alot to pull this off masterfully!!!

I'm having serious doubts about this. I'm thinking it's going to end up being a Gangs of New York sort of pic. It might get the nod just cuz the year isn't too strong and it's an intriguing story and production. It will get alot of technical nods. But, contrary to New York, I think Geisha will win at least a couple of its nods, most probably in the technical categories!

I disagree about this being a year that isn't strong. I think this year offers much more interesting films than recent years have offered. (Memoirs of a Geisha is not one of those interesting films for me personally, but at least it's different)

Roger Ebert's comments on the Toronto Film Festival.

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbc ... /509120301