I think (obviously) so very much of HOV's chances rest on the box office. The initial take. It's an October release and this year, more than ever, the serious contenders aren't showing up until Nov/Dec. It's gotta do well enough to be remembered. If it gets the "BO disappointment" stigma, it's done. I agree with you that if HOV is as good as advertised, and gets nodded, Viggo's in as well.

And yes, Cronenberg is VERY respected in his field. But he's been off the mainstream radar for a while, and while indie cred is wonderful, Oscar cred is something else entirely. Ron Howard fucking won. They want you to play their game. Jarmusch doesn't do that. Neither does DC. It doesn't mean he doesn't have a shot, but it doesn't help.



The idea of the Vera Drake slot is interesting. The directing branch, in particular, has really thrown us some curve ballls lately (Lynch, Meirelles, Almodovar, Leigh....that's a quartet, to be sure). We gotta be actively looking out for that upset this year.

I just think they're DYING to bring Woody back into the fold. Remember his appearance at the ceremony post-9/11? He's royalty. Maybe he'll even show up this year. Probably not. Don't forget how well Woody is, when he's making good movies, at getting actors nominated. I have a good feeling.

In regards to THE FAMILY STONE here's Poland's original post:

"Masterpiece Of The Familial
Remmeber how My Best Friend's Wedding was a surprising delight, reviving Julia Roberts, bringing Cameron Diaz to ascension, creating a cult around Rupert Everett that had him suggested as the first gay Bond?

Remember how Say Anything came out if nowhere and was funny and emotional and unforgettable?

Remember how Lawrence Kasden's second film, The Big Chill, revived the love of Motown, launched Kevin Kline, William Hurt, Glenn Close and Jeff Goldblum and signalled the arrival of an important director.

This is the provenance of The Family Stone.

We're still three months away from a release date... Michael Giacchino's score still isn't in... there is still some cutting being done... but as landmark comedies go..."

Those movies don't exactly have stellar Oscar histories (except for the Big Chill...they don't HAVE Oscar histories), but there was a later column (that I can't find right now...I'm looking) where he threw it into the Oscar race and suggested, none-too-coyly, that Diane Keaton's performance is a possible winner (not just nominee....winner). We shall see.




I'm 99% sure that Warner Independent, not searchlight, is releasing GN&GL. Either way though, your comments still apply. Immensely.



I don't think it has any Oscar potential. An Elijah Wood vehicle? (I know...LOTR...but that is SO not the same thing) On the other hand, Oscar thoughts aside, I'm getting a sneaking suspicion that the movie will be quite wonderful.

*hiccup*

Way too many strawberry daiquiris tonight, so it's going to take me a bit to get my head back together and comment on this stuff, but I will.

I promise to do this tomorrow, and be very in depth with it, but I'd just be wasting space if I tried to do this drunk.

With the real information/reviews/screenings that we currently have, not just based on buzz and pedigree of those involved, Walk the Line is leading the pack right now, followed by Jarhead. Walk the Line is universally praised, while Jarhead's reaction is a little below that (Kris at OW mentioned his insider link said after the screening that Jarhead may not be fully embraced by the Academy, but the general reaction is good enough). Memoirs of a Geisha had test screening, and it went reasonably well; however, it will have the language/ethnic issues, and both Marshall and Goldsman have strong detractors with their Chicago and A Beautiful Mind wins, respectively. At least the screening reaction means it won't drop off the radar as Alexander did, but it still could be like The Last Samurai or Cold Mountain. Munich is still a mystery, as the whole project has been since the beginning, but it has been occupying the Gangs of New York/The Aviator kind of front runner lock slot. It might not win, as the other two films have shown, but it will take some failure to drop out of the nomination list.

Last year I couldn't have seen Ray winning even when Million Dollar Baby wasn't a factor.

I however can see Walk the Line winning this year. Also on IMDB there are more raves.

I'm sure to some extent it will be generic and a little middling, but most best picture winners are.

The whole Ray vs. Walk the Line thing feels a bit like Moulin Rouge vs. Chicago. One picture the previous year sort of blazes the path, wins some praise and awards, etc. Does pretty well at the box office. The second film is a little more accessible and takes all the glory and the Oscars and does twice the business.

Ok, this is going to take a bit to get together, so I hope it's something you guys find informative, if not entertaining.

I think that Walk the Line and Munich are definitely locks, and at this point, the only films I would call that. Here are my picks for what I expect to see nominated.

Munich (Universal) has two things going for it, Spielberg and controversy. It also has a very capable cast. Controversy could already be starting to rear it's head on an international level.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050906/fil ... stinian_dc

Remember what controversy did for Million Dollar Baby, as it firmly put the film in everybody's face. When something is controversial, people like to talk about it, and that's the kind of thing that can create unstoppable momentum. Terrorrism is a very touchy subject in the states, and something that people will definitely see as relevant, so awarding such a film that deals with that subject matter, is a very strong possibility.

On the other side of the coin, is the fact that Spielberg has gotten his share of love from the academy already, and after just awarding somebody (Eastwood) last year, who had also already had previous academy love, they might feel it's best to spilt it up and give it to some new blood. Besides, does anybody really believe that Spielberg will never be in the running again?

Walk the Line (20th Century Fox) is the latest biopic, which the academy has a history of loving, especially when it deals with a recently deceased celebrity. Early screenings are positive, and it's got the two leads being touted as locks for Best Actor and Best Actress, which will all but assure a Best Picture and Best Director nomination, which makes this the film to beat, in my opinion.

Phoenix and Witherspoon are both very capable actors, and playing celebrities, and doing their own singing in the process, is going to come across strong to voters. They can't just sing, though, they have to sound like people who are known, and that will impress. They also have to resemble those celebs, and from what I've seen, besides Reese being much prettier than June, they've both got down vital characteristics of both of them, and those performances are going to carry the load to Oscar gold for the movie.

Elizabethtown (Paramount) will get a nomination. There, I said it. Cameron Crowe is going to be a major contender this year, and could even create a Best Picture/Best Director split this year. He's got a great resume behind him, and word has it that the script could be his best yet. It's getting good buzz, so far, if you can trust early buzz.

The biggest drawback that Elizabethtown has going against it, is it's lead actor. The whole film rests squarely on Orlando Bloom, and let's face it, he's no Tom Cruise. He's got to be able to get the audience to embrace him as a lead, something he's yet to do, and he's got to have a working chemistry with Kirsten Dunst. If Bloom can pull it off, we may be looking at this year's big winner.

Memoirs of a Geisha (Columbia) is going to be the token arthouse choice. I can already imagine hearing that name mentioned several times on Oscar night. Rob Marshall already appears to be an academy favorite, judging by the love that Chicago was given (even though Marshal didn't win Best Director) Stalwart cast members like Ken Watanabe and former Bond girl, Michelle Yeoh, add much to this movies chances of a nomination.

I think that's as far as it will go, as it's not going to have enough mainstream appeal to tip any scales in it's favor.

Syriana (Warner Bros.) Look, Clooney has made a lot of friends in the business, and I see either this or North Country as Warner Bros. strongest chance, and they have a good history of getting recognition in recent years for the films that they push. It's one of the few things they do well lately. Warner Bros. has made a lot of mistakes, and who do you you think they'd rather please, George Clooney or Charlize Theron? They certainly need George Clooney more, just not as Batman.

This does have some things going against it, far more than the rest. For one, Warner Bros. could indeed push North Country as their Oscar picture, and leave Syriana in the rear view mirror. Also, Clooney might care less, as he's probably more interested in his own directed feature, Good Night. And, Good Luck, that has it's own outside chance of some recognition. Let's face it, the academy doesn't have to reward Syriana as a movie in order for them to take care of their pal, as they can choose many different avenues to do that, including a Best Actor nom for Syriana.

Other films with a shot...

Jarhead (Universal) I think Munich is going to knock this out of the competition, but it could be the other way around. Both are relevant issue movies, and both are from Universal, and I don't see both making the top 5 with those two things in common.

Match Point (Dreamworks) Woody Allen...'nuff said. (We know how he creates multiple orgasms that reverberate throughout the academy.)

A History of Violence (New Line) Said to be Cronenberg's best film, and will be New Line's biggest push. (Yes, a King Kong nomination is just fanboy nonsense.)

Crash (Lions Gate) If it was released in the fall or winter, it probably would have gotten a Best Picture nomination.

Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features) The academy won't let Ang Lee forget Hulk so soon.

All the King's Men (Columbia) A remake probably has little chance of a Best Picture nomination, so it'll have to try to get some acting attention.

Good analysis Mav. For Elizabethtown, I heard the early words are mixed, as Variety had an average-to-negative review on it, so I'm not sold on its chance yet. Walk the Line is still the only lock I see so far. Munich has everything going for it, but without real reviews, it's still all based on assumptions. It will take some effort for it to fail, but it happened before for Spielberg with Amistad.

I agree with xiayun that Elizabethtown's chances seem awfully small. Plus, it's opening right near the Almost Famous slot. If that couldn't get in, this can't. I also agree that Walk The Line is looking awfully lock-ish right now.

And I've officially decided that Brokeback Mountain is a longshot, at best. AMPAS doesn't necessarily like Ang Lee very much; he was overlooked for a nomination for Sense & Sensibility, despite the film's many others, and he lost to Soderbergh in 2000 despite having won pretty much every precurser, including the DGA.

We're all counting on Munich to be a lock. In theory, I suppose I agree. But Spielberg still needs to make a good movie here, let's not forget. This can't be The Terminal. Or War of the Worlds. Or Catch Me If You Can. Etc. It's been a while, Spielbergo.

No way Elizabethtown gets a nod before Jarhead, thats not gonna happen. Doesnt matter if the studio that released Munich is also releasing Jarhead, I never heard of that before. I also truly doubt Syriana gets any type of recognition

The studio push matters quite a bit. How can you have never heard of that?

Also, how about giving an analysis so it doesn't sound like you're using the same mindset as one would when predicting boxoffice?

Ouch. The studio can push both movies, why does studio push matter so much? If people are aware of the movie and it's a great movie, doesnt need a big push from the studios. The studios arent gonna go well hmmmm which movie should we push for oscars, if they have two winners they'll push both as much as needed, I doubt either movie will need a big push, they both will be big movies one way or another, lots of controversy will help them also. Your reasoning is flawed in this argument.

My BO predictions are just fine bucko.

Dude, there are a lot of politics involved in the Oscars. Lots of movies, and only 5 spots. Do you really believe that studio push isn't important? I seriously question how much you actually know about how this process works. Educate me on your awards knowledge, since you sound like you are giving an opinion with no precedent to back it up.

If the year continues to play out like we're expecting, basically no big break out surprises and the main front-runners being Jarhead, Geisha, Munich, and Walk the Line, then I think there will be a good chance for Crash to sneak into maybe Directing category!

Last year the only movie that REALLY got a big studio push was Aviator. Anyways like I said, the studios arent gonna debate over which movie to push, if they're both oscar contenders both will get their push, the studio wont leave one in the dust if they have a feeling it's good enough for an oscar, that logic is flawed. Anyways Jardhead as of now has more awareness and the early reviews are great. We know nothing of Munich except it's plot.

Million Dollar Baby was pushed with a very strategic release and plenty of stuff that followed that. Ray was pushed through DVD, and by using Jamie Foxx for all he was worth. The Aviator, of course, was pushed from the start. Finding Neverland was Miramax. It's TV spots from day one were built on an Oscar push.

Again, Killuminati510, do an analysis for the upcoming Best Picture, and give legit reasons for your choices, don't post just to come up with reasons why someone else has flawed logic when you can't provide proof of that. You sound a bit clueless, so prove to me that you aren't since you called me out on my knowledge.

And I'm not saying it's impossible, just that it's unlikely for one studio to fill up 40% of the spots, and studios know this. They don't just sit back and let their movies speak for themselves.

Lol omg, if you're gonna use arguments like this we can say every freakin movie gets a push one way or another. I'll make a list of what movies I think will get nominted and why, then you can break it down and tear it to pieces if you want.

Like I said, you don't come across as someone that has anything more than an opinion, and you can call logic flawed all you want as long as you can't prove it is. I'm not here to argue, but if you're going to call someone out on something, you should be prepared to be called out yourself.

Go ahead and list your movies, but I'll bet I'll have better things to do than to tear it to pieces, even if I don't agree. And be sure to stick around during the awards season. I guarantee you'll learn.

Well heres my interpretation of their rankings:

1. Jarhead- Its the frontrunner. Its been mentioned to death so I won't go much further. The country needs this kind of movie, with Sam Mendes mr. American Beauty at the helm, Jake Gylanhall the rising star, and Jamie Foxx with his first post-ray performance as a supporting character, expect it to be a hit bo-wise as well. It is in my mind the one to beat without a doubt.

2. Walk the Line- With its two acting noms locked up, its on Jarheads back in a major way. It looks to capitilize this year in every way Ray couldn't. They've got hugely star actors who could both take the acting Oscars at the helm, and much more hype for this film, thanks to Ray of course. The only thing is the reviews so far have been saying that its good, but not the best film of the year. Like A-/B+s. But those should be enough. It doesn't matter if Jarhead and Munich get better reviews, this has other factors going for it. The general movie and respect could be enough to take it.

3. Munich-is Speilberg of course going for his serious movie again. 7 years since Ryan, he has a shot. It centers on the Olympic Munich travesty of course, and the revenge. Eric Bana looks strong. In the pack this is the one guy who knows what its like to live up to the directors chair promise. If he has the magic in him, he could blow the other two out of the water. Jarhead and Walk the Line as great as they look don't have the potential as this one. I mean, theres a chance Speilburg will pull off something more than a regular oscar-nominated controversy movie. If he truly is the greatest director to ever live, there has to be a movie that comes from him eventually that knocks all the other movies completley out. Theres a chance Munich becomes least surprising winner of all time.

Those are locks in my opinion. They, unless something else pops up should be the favorites. Then it goes:


4. Memoirs of a Geisha Geisha Looks excellent, the only problem is the language. And while it has great chance at a nom. its the only movie in like the top 15 that has absolutely no chance of winning. Foreign film yes, but thats all it'll get. Zhang Zhyi will get a nom, maybe win, I just don't see this having any chance of taking the BP. Sorry xiayun.

5. The New World- Its a wild choice of sorts, because as much as it can do well at the awards, it has a high chance of going the way of Farrell's Alexander. But if its done well I really do think it can intrude on the top 3 nominees and genuinly challenge for Best Picture. For BP possibility, its right up there in my opinion. Geisha can't win, so this has a chance at being the 4th wheel in the race. Or yeah as mentioned it flops. Next:


Those are the top 5. The rest:


6. The Weather Man- Its only been mentioned, for acting neverthless, in one line in this thread. I think it could be the ultimate dark-horse in the competiton. It looks to hava quirk-ish vibe, but in a very good way. Its one of my most anticipated. The acting in it is also there. Nicolas Cage has his acting boots on for the first time in a long while, and from the trailer hes looking to nail it. Micheal Caine is also another bright spot. He has a chance here to finally perform as a superstar, rather than the last couple years of side/not as needed characters for him a la Bewitched and BB. I'm really surprised there isn't more buzz for it.

7. All the Kings Men- All the Kings Men is the remake of a BP. The cast is fantastic, it could very well sneak in there. Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Jude Law. WOW. But I don't see as much for it this year as I normally would. Not the right time I guess.

8. King Kong- King Kong would be the uber-blockbuster choice, and with a talented cast(Black, Brody, Watts) and Peter Jackson at the helm it could very well take a charge.

I'll tell you one thing, Crash is a lock for at least a screenplay nom, if not a BP nom. It may have come out too early for the latter but it isn't likely it'll be completely shut out because, by and large, people have loved the movie. I don't know if Elizabethtown will get anything more than a screenplay nod, it looks too small and inconsequential. The same goes for Shopgirl although I hope the film is great enough to sneak in because I loved Martin's novella it's based on.

I would consider Jarhead a lock if not for its subject matter. Three Kings was about the same thing and it didn't get much love from the Academy. The pedigree is there, no question with Mendes directing. He's yet to make a bad film.

The New World seems like a lock for a cinematography nom, nothing more. It might be too associated with Alexander by way of its star to do much of anything.

It would be great to see Family Stone sneak in there, continuing Rachel McAdams success. We'll have to wait and see though.

Munich seems like a lock for a BP nom. It's topical and Spielberg after all.

I have one last thimg, any chance for a film like Batman Begins to get nominated for something? The critics loved it but Spider-Man never panned out even though Ebert thought it should have been given a BP nom.

Ok, we all know l have very little idea of what l type when it comes to the Oscars and such, (and by we all l mean I), but l wonder, why the absolute lack of faith/buzz/love for North Country? l just saw the trailer before CGardener, and l think it looks fantastic, and could definitely see it making some noise come Oscars. Is it just too early to be thinking about it?

Also, can someone tell me why King Kong seems to have been discounted? l think that's pretty highly underestimated right now.

And now, l think l'll go ahead and finish reading this thread...maybe my questions have been answered in the last few posts.

Here's some early reviews of Elizabethtown.

http://hollywoodreporter.com/thr/review ... 1001055205

http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117928 ... id=31&cs=1

Elizabethtown may grab a screenplay nod. At least it's in the running for one. But I'm more glad to see Bloom do something great.


It's actually an interesting question. Warner Bros doesn't seem to have a lot going for it this year and they've pushed some pretty strong pictures in recent years (including last year's winner).

I would just say it's not getting the right attention, it's got some good attributes and no negatives that I can think of.


Genre/Remake I would say although if it was the same cast and production crew filming a drama it would be a frontrunner. Which is not to say Kong will be missing from the ceremony, it could easily grab Score/Production Design/Effects/etc. nominations/wins.


That's absolutely garbage. The whole Oscar thing is run on money and studio support, which is why if you are releasing a Lions Gate film or even a Fine Line (sub of New Line) your chances are pretty nil. Lord of the Rings had a $50 million dollar campaign, and Universal threw a lot of money and attention at Ray. There is rarely ever a film that gets in which doesn't have some studio muscle behind it.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but if you throw out all the co-productions, the only time in like the last decade that a studio got more than one picture nominated for best picture was in 2002 with Miramax (Chicago and Gangs of new York) AND they had a co-production that year (The Hours). That's why the studio situation is so important. You are not going to see Universal pictures with 3 pictures in the top 5, it's statistically improbable. So if you have a list with Munich and Jarhead and The Producers on it, sorry, but it isn't going to happen.


It's not out of the running for screenplay, but I just watched it 10 minutes ago and I can't imagine it getting any other awards (maaaaaaaaaaaybe Cinematography, although those tend to align more with BP choices). I'm actually really, really disappointed. LGF made a good move releasing it in the time when it was surrounded by so much garbage... not because I think it's garbage, but just because it looked golden next to the others. I'm really, really disappointed in it Besides... LGF is not really an "Oscarish" studio as of yet.


Effects belong to other films this year (I would say Kong and Star Wars are locks with some other potentials floating about). I don't think it could stand up against the production design of some of the later films. The score isn't eligible I don't think. I don't see where it would possibly be nominated.

I think it would be safe to say that EVERY movie with a major nomination last year had a massive, expensive, studio Oscar push. If they hadn't, they wouldn't have been nominated. That, like it or not, is the nature of the beast.

Yup, which incidentally is why I don't really get emotionally wrapped up in the Oscars and why we can predict them in the first place. I try to explain to people that it's really no different than the Box Office where certain films get marketing and good release dates and others don't.

It's like a sporting event.

But my favorite films rarely show up on the top 5, although I usually have one or two that I think are absolutely brilliant.

Overall I think the Academy is generally good in finding good middle ground between popular commercial movies and film as an artform.