It's Labor Day. It's time to make those bold and daring predictions based on buzz and whatever we can make up about the nominees and get away with until the big shows.

To be quite honest, to me, this year is more about the math of awards because I really haven't scoured Oscarwatch or Goldderby or the other awards sites this year looking at impressions of the upcoming movies.

Alas, we’re here in September, where all the “magic” starts, and in order to help jump start this topic, we have to get bold. So I will get bold. I will purge myself of as much bias as possible and present the cool hard facts as I interpret them.

Here are the five films that I think have the biggest shot at Best Picture. I’ve broken a few rules this year too. While Munich and Jarhead are both Universal and the only reason why the former is a co-production is that Universal is apparently buying Dreamworks. Also like 2005, we’ll be lucky if any of these hit $100 million this year.

With that said, here we go.

A History of Violence (New Line Cinema) – A History of Violence has *numerous* things going for it. It has a talented, respected director (David Cronenberg), it has a star who’s respected and was sort of overlooked in the success of one of the biggest Oscar success stories of all time, and the supporting cast is equally as strong. It is also getting great word of mouth from those that have seen it.

New Line has two pictures to sell this year. I think they will pick the one with the better cast (Violence).

Jarhead (Universal) – The hurricane only makes Iraq look worse, the time is ripe for Jarhead. Also filled to the teeth with stats that would make any studio jealous is this film. With the few reviews available, this looks like it is hitting the mark. And Sam Mendes? Yeah.

Memoirs of a Geisha (Sony) – At this point, Geisha is our epic. Not as robust an epic as everyone would like to think, but it works. Whether it can bring nominations to not only actors of non-Caucasian descent as well as being really foreign? We’ll have to see what happens there. The Academy, despite recent attempts, really are not as forward thinking as we think. Still, it’s got everything going for it, including a prime release date, Rob Marshall who has a recent Best Picture win for a picture he directed, and some very hot (career wise) actresses. Will controversy mar it? Memoirs of a Geisha’s best shot going for it is the amount of technicals it will get nominated for.

Munich (Universal/Dreamworks) – Munich is the Gangs of New York, Return of the King, The Aviator, it is the Oscar film that is a pretty much known quantity from the moment it was announced. Spielberg is a master, and it’s been 7 years since Saving Private Ryan. In between he’s had a lot of success and (in my opinion) his most challenging period of film.

The subject matter, the timing. This is it. This is the film that people will be talking about, which is why The Producers and All the King’s Men and The New World are going to have a tough time on that Christmas day and after time slots.

Walk the Line (20th Century Fox) – Joaquin Phoenix and Reece Witherspoon are the closest we have to nomination locks in the big categories this year and James Mangold the director has shown promise in the past with Girl, Interrupted and Cop Land. It’s not the strongest competitor, it is going to suffer opening against Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, but unless we got King Kong coming at us then it will probably be the most crowd pleasing.

In addition, Walk the Line has basically already won the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy. I'm sorry to those in The Producers/Rent's camps. But they will at least be nominated.

Other films with a shot:

King Kong (Universal) – Okay, I know what you are saying to yourself, but listen to me. There are no films between Labor Day and New Years that have the potential to break out other than the big three year end releases, between Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe and King Kong, Kong with it’s Oscar winning director, teams, writers, actors, etc. definitely has a lot going for it. If the Academy chooses to nominate a film that in 2005 made a LOT of money, it will most definitely be Kong. They won’t reach back into the summer. Besides, Jackson’s team may be nominated for tech awards like there is no tomorrow. It is, however, a remake. This would take the place of Jarhead.

All the King’s Men (Sony) – It’s got a log going for it and a lot against it. For it: a capable cast, a very capable writer. Against it: it’s a remake of another Best Picture winner, the director doesn’t have a ton under his belt, has bad release timing, just too gosh-darned small. Sony won’t sacrifice Memoirs for it though.

Match Point (Dreamworks) – After Melinda and Melinda and Allen’s surprising resurgence in 2005, the apparently-good Match Point could deliver in writing and maybe even as a Best Director. It seems primed to be the Vera Drake of 2005. This would take the place of Jarhead.

The New World (New Line Cinema) – New Line has two potential horses this year. The New World has been removed from November due to the problems with the production. It’s sad in a way because it seems to be gimping itself. I fully think that it needed the space that Jarhead will have for it to do well. Malick always produces interesting films, and I think it shows a lot of promise. As a non fan, I think Ferrell is taking too hard of a beating for Alexander, but that’s how the cookie crumbles. I just see no passion enough from the audience to see this being nominated for best picture. This would take the place of A History of Violence.

Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features) – It would be stupid of me not to mention a Focus product that is directed by Ang Lee, even though there’s a lot about Mountain which spells doom. Subject matter, the Cannes issue, the Hulk issue, etc. I honestly think they should have run The Constant Gardener in December instead of this. But oh well! This would take the place of Jarhead or A History of Violence.

Animated Film:

The Corpse Bride (Warner Bros.) - The likely winner. A good opportunity for a non-traditional animated film to win big. And I believe The Corpse Bride will win big. It's got the thrust of Nightmare Before Christmas and James and the Giant Peach going for it. It's also not CG, which is becoming a plus.

Howl's Moving Castle (Disney) - Howl's apparently doesn't brush up against the brilliance of earlier Miyazaki works, but by comparison to the 2005 wasteland of Animated films, it looks golden. And it's *really* from 2004, making 2005 look like even more of a wasteland.

Madagascar (Dreamworks) - It made a lot of money.

Other pictures with a shot:

Robots (20th Century Fox) - It's quite clear that if there is a God, he hates us, so Howl's would be ejected by the middling Robots. May Satan have mercy on our souls.

oooh...awards season is here!

I have to leave in about a half hour and will be gone for awhile today, but this is the first place I'm stopping when I get back. I have plenty of my own ideas, so far, and I hope to see a number of other people taking part in this thread. I'll single them out by name if they don't!

Yay. I'm a bit anxious to see what film is "the film of the year" though. (hope this award season doesn't dissapoint...)

I'm thinking Memoirs of a Geisha won't get a nomination for BP. As much as I'm anticipating it, the whole english thing could be an issue, though it would be a pleasant surprise if it does end up being an amazing film. And the big surprise of the year could be The Producers, we'll see...

The Producers is not going anywhere. If anything it will be liked by the public and the Globes but nothing else.

It's problems are numerous:

- Untested director
- A comedy
- A musical
- A cast which hasn't gotten a lot of Oscar attention and to boot is more ensemble.
- Universal has got 3 other films in play... Munich, Jarhead and the tech friendly King Kong. Even Cinderella Man is more friendly than this one.
- It's as much of a remake as anything, even though it's not in the form of a musical.
- Walk the Line will beat it in the Globes race.

Jarhead, Munich, Walk the Line.

In terms of overall buzz (and buzz they'll probably end up receiving), I think those are the frontrunners as of now.

I think Memoirs is up there, but again, it has a lot going against it.

I honestly haven't heard enough about A History of Violence to predict anything.

As for animated film, I hope to god that something comes along between now and Christmas that'll knock Madagascar AND Robots out of the running.

Andaroo, while I agree with you on The Producers' chances (quite slim, as of now), I don't think I necessarily agree that its status as a musical is a "problem." The Academy loves to embrace a good musical.

Aside from two recent examples, there is a 30ish year gap in the Academy's appreciation of musicals.

Is that gap because the academy doesn't like musicals, or because there were no musicals for them to reward?

I cannot think of one Oscar-worthy musical in that 30-year gap. Newsies? Grease? Jesus Christ Superstar? No on all counts.

If it's good, they'll pay attention. Musicals are old, classic Hollywood tradition.

AMPAS doesn't make the musicals, they just judge them.

This is just too funny!

I sat around 12:00 mi-day thinking of what to do on Labor Day! I decided to start, finally, going through the year's releases and begin my Oscar tracking. I've spent the last hour collecting titles (Around 30) of the year's already released and to be released movies that will most probably vie for the Oscars.

I was going to go in depth into each one and I thought I'd check in here for a few seconds and saw this
Give me the day to read it and I'll add whatever else I found!

I know you are not a Producers supporter, but that's the question isn't it? Do I feel there were award worthy musicals in the last 30 years? Yes. Traditional musicals? No. I don't think Moulin Rouge was traditional either tho.


I don't necessarily agree with this. I'm sure the producers of The Producers hope this is the case. I think both Moulin Rouge and Chicago had bigger/better reasons to be nominated. Moulin because it seem to hit this weird place with the audience where they supported it beyond it's genre and Chicago, a super high budget Miramax push with previously Oscar nominated performances.

I don't feel The Producers has that.


Again, I don't agree with this, because there's been about 2 generations between the time when Oliver! won and Chicago won. We'll have to agree to disagree with this.

Yoshue, I'd really like to see your top 10 or so at this point. You seem to be a good addition to this section because you weren't here last year were you?

Raffiki:

Definately add some if you think they are missing or tear apart mine. No logic in this thread will be frowned upon! I guess the only thing that I'm dead set against happening is The Producers. It's just waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay not happening. Maybe that and Rent.

I think you could successfully argue almost everything at this point.

Of the ones on my list I think Walk the Line is an absolute lock now that the reviews are starting to pour in. Munich as well. A History of Violence is my most wishful-thinking choice and Memoris of a Geisha is the picture in my top 5 that I care the least about.

Agreed, I think those are the top three contenders (at the moment) this year.

Madagascar will be nominated. We can hope about Robots.

I didn't really go into Forein or Documentaries because they can be rather elisive although I'm positive March of the Penguins will win, and it's likely that Grizzly Man and Murderball will be nominated.

Unfortunately, true. The line up will probably look like this.

Chicken Little, Howl's Moving Castle, Madagascar.

And if HMC's not nominated...

Munich, Jarhead, Brokeback Mountain, Walk the Line and Memoirs of a Geisha. I think these will be the final 5...


(but there's always a surprise nominee...)

You know what? There is more of a clutter of movies this year than last year, but only very very few stand out. I think there are 3 locks as of now that will definitely knab 3 out of 5 spaces on the Best Picture list unless they get panned by critics or do horrendous business at the box office.
These 3 are...
Walk the Line
Munich
Jarhead

Now, Memoirs of a Geisha is the next thing to a lock but that English language factor is really something only time will reveal as an obstacle or not and it's release is too far off to tell.

That said, what is really left? Nothing.

I'm really anticipating History of Violence, but to be honest I don't think it has any chance at a big Picture slot.

there are only a handful of movies left that could occupy that last spot...

All the King's Men
The New World
The Producers

Not one movie from that list stands out more than the others at this point in the race and so I am inclined to say there still may be a chance for Crash to get in there. Or any early release, like Constant Gardener or Proof and Unfinished Life (which are all getting fantastic reviews)

I think there is alot of things up in the air right now, so there's no telling what could happen.

I am preparing a big list of contenders and might just make my own thread, but among small films to watch out for, whether it be in only acting or writing categories are...

In Her Shoes
Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio
Good Night, and Good Luck
North Country
Bee Season
The White Countess
Capote
Upside of Anger

I think Brokeback Mountain, The New World, and A History of Violence are the 3 prime films for the Best Director but no Best Picture slot. Memoirs of a Geisha could be the one that takes the other side of BP/BD split given it will no doubt get the tech support (early screening and trailer are pretty much confirming that) but may lack support from acting or director branches. Also the release date of second weekend of December hasn't been very favorable in term of oscars, as The Last Samurai and Cold Mountain showed us.

What else has David Cronberg done? Why is he in such a good position for Director nod?

I don't know why after I checked out his filmography, but I always had this feeling of film noir or producing wierd but interesting films with Cronberg, similar to Lynch, even though his IMDb scores are considerably lower.

I'm not sure if it was clear, but let me assure you, andaroo, that I agree wholeheartedly. While there is not a movie I want to see more than The Producers this year, it doesn't exactly have great Oscar potential.

And yes, the only way The Producers is gonna find itself with any major Oscar nods is if it strikes some unexpected vein, i.e. Chicago and MR. And I sure don't think it has any of those necessary traits.

My only real disagreement with you is on the issue that its identity as a musical is a hindrance; I think it helps. Major musicals, even in that 30 year gap, found some nominations (AMPAS loved Cabaret, although it lost to the Godfather, it won 8....All That Jazz got a boatload of noms in '79). What musicals, in your opinion, were Oscar-worthy between ATJ in '79 and Moulin Rouge in '01? My belief is that they love to nominate a musical, if its good. But there were literally no good Musicals in that 22 year period. It's not an exact match, but they did nominate Beauty and the Beast in '91.

Hollywood produced no other good musicals in that time. None. Well, Woody Allen's Everyone Says I Love You was, I thought, a borderline masterpiece. But the tepid reponse, critically and financially, sealed that coffin.

It's kind of a moot point; The Producers is not likely to find itself in the final five. But I still think AMPAS loves to nominate musicals, when they're worthy.

And no, I was not here last year. But I should have been. Oscar discussion is always fun.

My top 10 thus far....almost impossible. I have not seen ten movies this year that I liked....
1 First 45 minutes of...I had to leave....THE CONSTANT GARDENER
2 March of the Penquins
3 Upside of Anger
4 Broken Flowers
5 Kingdom of Heaven
6 Batman Begins
7 Melinda and Melinda, I suppose
8 40-Year Old Virgin, which emphasises the current morose moviegoing landscape.

And of those, the only Best Picture nomination I could see justified was Constant Gardener (But that is only based on the first 45 minutes).

Is not a good year. Takling about the upcoming good movies is exciting and all, but I'm ready to fucking see them. It's gotten depressing. And some potential good ones (mostly docs...Grizzly Man, for example) haven't come close to me.

Spider
eXistenZ
Crash
M. Butterfly
Naked Lunch
Dead Ringers
The Fly
Videodrome
Scanners

Oh I meant your top 10 Oscar prognostics (spelling?)

Cronenberg will go if his movie catches a big wave. But it's not like Lynch and Mulholland Dr.; Lynch has an Oscar history (Elephant Man, Blue Velvet)....Cronenberg hasn't made in a memorable movie in quite some time. And has never been nominated.

As goes History of Violence, so goes DC. His position is no stronger than any of the other major contenders at this point.

I'm starting to think MATCH POINT may be a serious contender. AMPAS loves Woody, although they haven't responded to his dramas as much as his comedies. If this is a return to form, look out. If nothing else, a screenplay nomination seems assured if the movie is close to as good as the word on it.

Ah, I see, andaroo. Sorry. Let's give that a try.

1 Munich
2 Walk The Line
3 Jarhead
4 Memoirs of a Geisha
5 Match Point
6 All The King's Men
7 The New World
8 History of Violence
9 The Producers
10 The Family Stone- David Poland has seen this, and suggested a few weeks ago that this was some kind of Oscar-contending masterpiece.....I don't know about that, but that statement stuck with me. It's not ridiculous to think this could take the sometimes token comedy slot.

The first six smell like good bets, assuming quality is there. Family Stone is just me going on David Poland hearsay (I remember his PHANTOM fiasco last year...surely, though, the guys gotta be right about something at some point).

I'm skeptical of New World and History of Violence's chances....I have a hunch NEW WORLD will underwhelm, and I think History of Violence is coming out too early and will not make enough money. Plus, I wonder if the fact that its based on a graphic novel will bring out the snobbishness of the voters. And Cronenberg is a very divisive filmmaker.

One contender I left off is Mrs. Henderson Presents, with Judi Dench (They love her!), and could theoretically fill that "Full Monty" slot that's been ignored recently.

Good Night. And, Good Luck, if it catches on, can't be counted out.

I think Cinderella Man is a lost cause. I'm not too optimistic on BROKEBACK. I don't know what to think of North Country. Lots of possibilities. Should be fun.

RENT is fucked, in case anyone was harboring hope out there.

With A History of Violence I think it benefits from a decent studio... New Line, a recent winner. Word is that Viggo is exceptionally good in it, which isn't surprising because he's at least decent in everything, even horrible movies (GI Jane, Hidalgo, A Perfect Murder, etc.). It also has an extremely strong supporting cast. SAG/Globe nominee Bello (the Cooler) and William Hurt and Ed Harris.

At this point there is no Jack Nicolsons this year (although Nick Cage could pull off something with The Weather Man) so I think Viggo really is in the running for a Best Actor nomination. My logic is that Best Picture and Actor very often are some of the most linked categories. I think a good leading male performance can push a picture over the top.

I would also completely disagree with the assessment of Cronenberg's career. I think he very much like Jim Jarmusch, that he is known and respected in that field, he just produces unconventional material. But being the fact that the giants (other than Spielberg) are taking a year off I think he and his film definately are on the radar.


I would definately say he has the best shot of any of the directors who have had their films screened at this point, maybe other than Sam Mendes or Rob Marshall.


I think a return to form for Woody would be a Screenplay nomination, but I don't rule out a Director position either. Like I said, it's very Vera Drake with this one maybe. There is a Woody Allen stigma that could potentially hurt it, but unlike many of his movies, it's serious and he's NOT IN IT

The Family Stone. Hmmm. Unknown director/writer and a pretty *meh* cast. It is going to have to be solid gold to even be considered, but as we have a super weak Origional Screenplay category this year, maybe that's it's in.


So do I. I don't think the audience is ready to forgive Colin Ferrell yet.


All true. I will be hard to judge, the only other thing that's similar to it is Road to Perdition.


If I could will a film to be brilliant and be in the top five, I would go with this one. I *loved* Clooney's first film. Fox Searchlight has had brilliant material before (Before Sunset) and wasn't able to do much with it though, so I don't hold out a lot of hope.


For picture yes, but for costumes, set and maybe Paul Giamatti I don't know. We'll have to see how the DVD release pays out.


Always is, this year is a little weird.


Yeah.

What do you think of Everything is Illuminated?