OW's
Most Likely to Succeed so far
(after reviews, buzz, etc.)

Best Picture:
The Constant Gardener
Cinderella Man
Crash

Best Actor:
Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Bill Murray, Broken Flowers
Terrence Dashon Howard, Hustle & Flow
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man

Best Actress:
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Dillon, Crash
Terrence Dashon Howard, Crash

Best Supporting Actress:
Thandie Newton, Crash

Best Director:
Fernando Mereilles, The Constant Gardener
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ron Howard, Cinderella Man

I'm a little surprised that Sandra Bullock, Kevin Costner, and Paul Giamatti aren't making the cut for them.

I think Paul Giamatti has his Best Supporting Actor nomination. For Cinderella Man, I see that and Costumes and *maybe* Cinematography.

I'm not so sure about Crash. Writing is always a possibility, it's going to depend on how it's percieved on video I think. I think it may be even coming out too soon on video. I think Crash is a perfect example of a film that could be released *right now* do well and produce real substantial Oscar buzz.

All three of these are dead in the water though as far as BP.

We all know March of the Penguins is going to win too

As of now these appear to be fine, but yeah, I see no acting nominations for Crash, though I do think all those listed are deserving (though not Matt Dillon, not really).

After reading a Newsweek article on Walk the Line, I think Joaquin Phoenix is a lock. Reese Witherspoon, too.

And I was surprised to read, too, that Gwyneth Paltrow is supposedly really good in Proof. The movie was giving me a very Human Stain-vibe before, but I don't know, maybe not.

It seems Joaquin and Reese are almost locks even before the release of Walk The Line. Entertainment Weekly's Fall Movie Preview issue has Reese on the cover and an interesting article inside.

As for Gwyneth, she's getting good reviews from Time and The Hollywood Reporter (as you Oscarwatch readers know) even though the movie reviews aren't that great. I'd say she's got a better than average chance for a nomination this year.

I know it's early, but I look at that list and think....."uh, no."

Save the Walk The Line performers, I'd be surprised to see any of those in the final lineup.

Terence Howard had a lot of buzz, but his movie died a pretty quick death. The rest just seem odd, unless there's a last-minute Murray-resurgence, an event I would be pleased to see.

I think Matt Dillon will be very much in the running for Best Supporting Actor.

This actually has nothing to do with commentary on this thread, but I didn't want to start a thread about this, and since this is at Oscar watch, I figured I would post it here. It's a very detailed and gushing review of The Producers I thought some of you might enjoy reading.

http://www.oscarwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6675

I think Walk The Line could be this yaers Ray, with Reese being this years Jamie Foxx...surprisingly.

But there are no locks until January comes around. Cause Million Dollar Baby really did not generate oscar buzz until around November, and everyone was saying it was too out of no where to make an impact at the Oscars, compared to the high profile Aviator and Alexander( )

Variety too.
I'm surprised the movie isn't getting panned by critics so that's good enough. Still, if it ends up being nominated for anything it will probably be for Gwenyth.

Why is it giving off The Human Stain vibes? Is it bec. Anthony Hopkins is in it? Don't worry, if you guys have seen the play, you know the fate of his character. lol

It's nice to see an actual well-received Broadway play be adapted into a film. There hasn't been that many in recent years. And the good ones get some nods, while the bad ones... are just a distant memory. Like HurlyBurly.

Updated:

Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Cinderella Man
Crash

Best Actor:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Bill Murray, Broken Flowers
Terrence Dashon Howard, Hustle & Flow
Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man

Best Actress:
Charlize Theron, North Country
Keira Knightly, Pride and Prejudice
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Dillon, Crash
Terrence Dashon Howard, Crash

Best Supporting Actress:
Sandra Bullock, Crash
Thandie Newton, Crash

Best Director:
Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ron Howard, Cinderella Man

Screenplay - Original:
Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco, Crash
Akiva Goldsman, Cliff Hollingsworth Cinderella Man

Screenplay - Adapted
Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener

Animated Feature
The Corpse Bride
Madagascar
Howl's Moving Castle

In a year where the Best Actor category seems to be shaping up to be the least filled with "due" actors in the past god know how many years... they should nominate and give Murray the win.