You still don't understand.

The decline from the first Harry Potter movie to the second tells us two things:

1. People didn't like the first movie much

2. All the consecutive Harry Potter movies most likely won't pass $300 million.

Nothing more.

The release date ALWAYS ALWAYS matters. If you release it in September it will most likely struggle to $250 million.

Do you really think it doesn't matter whether you have a holiday in your second weekend or not? I think it does. A lot. It also matters whether you have December coming up with two weeks of holidays or not.

Do you think that if released in the summer Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets would have still made $260 million with the same opening? No way.

people loved that movie... they thought it was great.



i agree.



yes it does... the films are becoming less and less popular. if this was the case, then why the large difference in monies worldwide?

people watch movies across the world at way different times than the united states... release dates dont matter to a moviegoer in malaysia.

theyll see it if its out.

ok... lets say a holiday comes up and another kids movie is released. obviously it will take away from hp's gross.

release dates do not matter for a film like this... people will watch it or they wont regardless of the month it comes out in.

these summer tentpoles like hp, lotr, and star wars are universal... they dont need a december release date to explode or not.

goblet of fire wont reach 250 million dollars.

235-240 at best.

another arguement in favor of Goblet of Fire is just looking at the way blockbusters have been performing this year. Even ones with mixed/weak WOM have had strong legs (The Ring Two excluded). Goblet of Fire also has an element of adventure and romance, which the other three lacked. So it should carry on throughout the holiday season much like National Treasure did, except Goblet will make 3x as much opening weekend. I think it will easily cross $300M, and end at about $310M.

Kong has to be as good, if not better, than all of the LOTR to make it to $300M.

I hope you are kidding me because I am pretty sure that most people on here will agree that the general perception was that the movie wasn't good. I thought that as well and I am a Harry Potter fan.





Summer tentpoles? I'm willing to bet that LOTR wouldn't have done in the summer as well as it did in December either. Unfortunately, of course, there is no way to prove that anymore, but I am convinced of that. You see, you just think that movies like these just depend on their respective WoM and fanbases. But that's not all. Once the fanbases have seen the movies, there's time for casual moviegoers. In the summer more big movies come out than in the winter, there are more choices. Therefore, let's say, if a moviegoer wants to see a movie in Harry Potter's 5th weekend and has absolutely no preference, he'd much rather see a new big movie that is out rather than Harry Potter that's already out for five weeks and rather forgotten. In winter, a couple of blockbusters rule the entire November/December/January. Last winter these movies were National Treasure, Meet the Fockers and The Incredibles (The Polar Express wasn't big to begin with, it just developed great legs). The winter before that, ROTK basically had the winter for its own. This year, Narnia, Harry Potter and King Kong will rule the winter. The good thing about holidays is that they usually can handle many family movies, not just one without them hurting each other significantly.

$235-240 million? Do I sense a bet here?

I feel King Kong is overated, PJ isn't a huge name yet. Lucas didn't become HUGE until Indy. And Spielberg not until several more films, PJ can't souly open a movie like most believe. King Kong looks more mature than Godzilla, but that doesn't mean the GP will think so.

Narnia looks to be a LOTR with more broader appeal, while LOTR didn't appeal to kids as much, Narnia will.

You know, honestly. I still don't think that any other movie will make it this year, but if any will, I think that the only one with a good chance is Harry Potter if it somehow manages to at least maintain decent legs...maybe legs just as good as the second movie had. That might be enough. I don't thnk it will, I see it falling short by about $15-20 million, but it does have a chance.

Yup, as I said before, I still think that Potter is the only one that has got a shot. The $102.3 million weekend confirms that. i don't see it making it, but right now the chances are 60/40, with 40% of it making it. It needs a multiplier just slightly less than the second Harry Potter movie had. If it wasn't for Narnia in four weeks, I think it could have made it.

If it can get to $185m by next weekend, I'd say it has a pretty good chance.

Hmm, actually I see no way how it could NOT get to $190 million after 10 days. I mean the first movie opened to $12 million less and yet made $187 million in 10 days.

It has a great shot at $300 million, now.

3 films this year maybe even 4 if Kong can pull it off

Potter 4 and Narnia are 300m+ smashes

potter will get 300 million. its word of mouth is very good.

Narnia and Kong will not cross $300 million, mark my words. $200 million, yes, but not $300.

I second that.

KK has an outside shot, but it really needs to be beyond excellent.

I used to be so sure that Narnia would even outgross Sith this year. Now I've noticed spatterings of disdain for Disney's marketing tactics from several people on the board (myself, Erendis, etc) and enough people in life (Peers mentioned it yesterday) that I'm starting to wonder if some of the marketing will backfire. Alot of people are getting turned off by the movie when it otherwise would have been appealing, or barring that a walk down literary memory lane.

Now I'm not so sure it'll make 300 million anymore.

I never thought Kong would. But honestly, its because Jackson isn't looking to appeal to everyone. He's making a very specific homage oiece and its going to reflect in the style and rating. His choice of casting and content. I think it'll be great. He doesn't seem like he's sacrificing his project for mass-appeal.

Kong does have the better shot of the two, if for nothing else but Jackson's name. I still can't see it crossing $300 million, though.