Well you're wrong. Harry Potter was more popular than LotR before the movies came (now I would say LotR is more), and LotR is absolutely more popular than Narnia.

Narnia will gross somewhere between 200-300 million. But I REALLY doubt it will get over 300 million.

not even 300.1 million?

ehh..ill shut up now.

Didnt the new Potter book do record breaking numbers or something? I mean common, Potter is as popular as it ever was, the new movie should be huge, no doubt that it has the best chance of the three. Fact is, it's the only one of the bunch basically a lock for 200m, the other two are a toss up.

yes its a lock for 200, but 300 is always the question. Potter books/movies are getting huge with each new release, thats evident in the opening weekends. But the only problem is its legs. Despite the better quality from each of the new films, it seemed legs got worst.

I think it should do better Azkaban, and maybe do better then Chamber of Secrets, but I dont know if it could beat the Sorcerers Stone.

I'd be shocked if any of the 3 movies mentioned were to make $300M. Note to everyone thinking Narnia can make it because of LOTR: I think we're all forgetting that what helped LOTR was that nothing worthwhile was released for about a month after it's release. 5 days after Narnia King Kong opens (Which, with the media's nose up Jackson's butt, will probably suck up all of Narnia's hype), then Fun With Dick and Jane, Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (:gag:) and Rumor Has It all opening over Christmas, I just don't see how it can survive to $300M, unless it somehow gets a Best Picture nod (Odds: 46923489-1). And Kong has to deal with everything opening over Christmas as well. And HP4 will get clubbed by Narnia, KK, FWDAJ, CBTD2 and Rumer Has It.

Damn Christmas is crowded.

Harry Potter is a lock for 200 million, but won't make 300 million. The series has clearly reached the fanbase it operates on: If the two previous films failed to make 300 million, why would this one? There is not going to be a sudden growth in the fanbase, there simply isn't any reason to assume so. It's going to be more frontloaded than the other HP flicks. The previous three flicks had strong WOM as well, so WOM won't push this above 300 million. The series has reached it's maximum audience. The first film has curiosity and novelty factor going on, therefore it made more money. But now the series is not going to reach more casual moviegoers, it operates purely on it's fanbase.

Narnia: Looks like a lock for 150 million, and has a small chance at 300 million. The fanbase is not enormous like some say, Narnia books are NOT as popular as LOTR or HP. No matter how you try to twist it, they simply aren't as popular and well-known. But it might have truly great WOM, pushing it north of 300 million. It has a better chance than HP4.

King Kong: A lock for 180 million, and has the best chance of grossing 300 million. The trailer is having AMAZING reactions in trailers, PJ is clearly on a roll now, and the concept has appeal equally to both sexes and to all age groups. Women will flock to see the romance, kids will flock to see giant monsters battling, and there is enough epic scope action to please anyone. And the recognition of the extremely famous brand name surely helps as well. I think this will have great WOM, pushing it north of 300 million, but of course it's impossible to know for sure at this point. It's family film, it's a fun popcorn adventure film, and it has enough gravitas and artistic ambition to appeal to more demanding moviegoes.

I'll say:

King Kong is the only flick of these three to make more than 300 million.

1) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $380m
2) Chronicles of Narnia: TLTW&TW - $275-$300m
3) Harry Potter 4: GOF - $270m
4) King Kong - $240m
5) War Of The Worlds - $230m
6) Charlie & The Chocolate Factory - $210m
7) Batman Begins - $205m
8) Madagascar - $195m
9) Wedding Crashers - $190-$200m
10) Mr. And Mrs. Smith - $185m

And to think that $300m is so easy these days .

Personally, i think Narnia has the ability to be the breakout hit of November/December and it will be a force to reckon with Overseas come Christmas. King Kong i'm excited for; however, its genre is more frontloaded and could be crushed by its own hype. If it can outgross WOTW, i'll be really happy

Narnia has the best chance (I say it will make 310m)

I don't think kong will because of bad casting, and already a lot of complaints, when I saw the trailor, some actually thought it was a comedy and laughed out loud throughout the thing, and at a second trailor, at F4 the audience was full of moons, and some chuckles when they heard Jack Black. And at my 2nd viewing at watching WOTW again, people thought it looked stupid. Though my fourth viewing (I need to see some new trailors) the audience had a good reaction.

King Kong just on its name is insured for 150m, and looks to end around 260m (even if this film had no comp, 300m would look near a bit out of reach) I think this will be the next WOTW, Jackson isn't a very big name (still pretty decent though) to those outside of the LOTR world, everyone on this site and most sites will disagree with me, but I still stand on my ground, and I would except if I was to be wrong, but for now this is my opinion, Jackson isn't near as big as a name as he is on the internet, Kong's trailor got a very mixed reaction, this looks like a WOTW without as good CGI effects, and those who still think they can improve the CGI, had better think twice, by now the most they can do with the CGI effects is tweak it, any major improvements is near impossible (told to me by someone in the visual effects depo)

I really don't see King Kong doing it, and at this point I think Narnia has a slim-to-none chance of topping $250 million.

Yeah, at this point I don't see any film topping $300 million for the rest of the year, which is odd. Quite a downer of a year.

None of the three will.

If we have another 300 million movie this year I think it will be A sound of Thunder...............just kidding .King Kong in my book is the only hope for another $300 million movie.

King Kong... WILL do it

Yes you can. Sith's trailer was awesome and the chance to go abck to the roots and see Darth Vader helped it. This potter film is just a middle of the road picture and therefore there is no reason for it to do any more than the last one.

And you know that because of what? The Narnia books sold a lot of copies and if it wasn't for the lotr films, they might never have been as popular as we know them to be.

Just becasue there is no reason doesn't mean it can't happen. Do you honestly think that the film, which will open at least to POA numbers and 4,000+ theaters, the weekend before Thanksgiving, will have WORSE legs than POA? Let's say it opened to $90 million....I personally think it'll be a good $10 million higher, but for the sake of the discussion, we'll use $90 million. The 3-Day Thanksgiving weekend helps potter fall...40%. That's higher than what I personally think Thanksgiving will allow. SS dropped 36.3%, and COS 23.9%, though it opened two weeks before Thanksgiving. That's a $54 million 3-day. Mix in about $35 million for the Monday-Thursday (Potter 1 got about $37 million in the same time frame; COS, about $20) and the total after two weekends is $179 million.

That's 20 million more than what POA had in the same timeframe. That's 30 million more than COS in the same timeframe. That's a bit less than $10 million behind SS in the same timeframe.

The numbers just don't add up to a total less than POA. It's, at this point, with the hype of the book, impossible to get lower than $250 million.

I think people are failing to realize that this won't have bad legs like Prisoner of Azkaban did. Opening in November will give it good legs, and with the same opening as Prisoner of Azkaban (more or less), it's almost guaranteed to make more.

But it won't have the summer weekdays to take advantage of. Doesn't that equal things out.

No, it doesn't because the holiday season is actually more profitable than the summer. Also, it won't have Shrek 2 still making $30+ million the weekend it opens.

OK.


It's going to fall much more than 40%. You can't compare it to COS because that was its 3rd weekend. The first fell 36.3% as you said. But, as these movies have gone along, they've become much more frontloaded. I think its fall we be slighlty over 50% which is very possible over Thanksgiving. Even Spongebob fell 44% in its 2nd weekend on Thanksgiving and it wasn't that frontloaded.


I can partially agree, though it will be slightly lower, it won't make a difference here.


It will be ahead of the previous 2 in the daily pattern for awhile, but POA had summer weekdays to catch up, and COS hasn't even got to Thanksgiving yet.


Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Weekend 1: $95 million, Total: $95 million
Weekdays 1: $30 million, Total: $125 million
Weekend 2: $45.6 million (-52%), Total: $170.6 million
Weekdays 2: $8.5 million, Total: $179.1 million
Weekend 3: $18.2 million (-60%), Total: $197.3 million
*First weekend of December always has huge falloffs
Weekdays 3: $4.5 million, Total: $201.8 million
Weekend 4: $10.7 million (-41%), Total: $212.5 million
Weekdays 4: $3.3 million, Total: $215.8 million
Weekend 5: $6.9 million (-35%), Total: $227.7 million
Weekdays 5: $2.5 million, Total: $225.2 million
Weekend 6: $4.5 million (-35%), Total: $229.7 million
Weekdays 6: $6 million, Total: $235.7 million
Weekend 7: $6.8 million (+50%), Total: $242.4 million
Weekdays 7: $4.5 million, Total: $246.9 milion
Weekend 8: $3.7 million (-46%) Total: $250.6 million
Weekdays 8: $1 million, Total: $251.6 million
Weekend 9: $2.2 million, Total: $253.8 million

And it should make another $5 million out. I myself was a bit surprised that my calculations got passed $250 million, because I was out to prove that it wouldn't make it. But I did forget to factor in competition, and it might fall harder on some of the weekends because it is much more frontloaded than SS (which I based my percent falls off of).

the evidence points to a less than 250 million harry potter film this november.

continual drops between the films shows it.

Spongebob was insanely frontloaded. When was the last time before Spongebob that a family movie dropped 40% over the Thanksgiving weekend.? I am pretty sure that Spongebob was at least as frontloaded as Harry Potter will be.

Moreover, true, this one will be more frontloaded than the first and will drop more than the first in its 2nd weekend. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER, it will also open bigger. Not to the $90 million that Insomniacdude has listed as an example, but much much rather to $95-100 million. The biggest drop I can see it having over the Thanksgiving Weekend is 45% (and that's pushing it). Considering it'll be a drop-off from $95+ million, it'll still make $52+ million.



All of POA's summer weekdays' effect has been eliminated by the horrible 2nd weekend drop to which the 2nd wekend drop of Harry Potter 4 won't even come close.





Trust me, it will not drop 50+% over the Thanksgiving weekend. Also, as you see, there is no way around making $250 million for it.

Kong. King Kong.

Hehe, are just not reading what folks like me or Insomniacdude are saying in this thread?

The drop between the second and the third movie just indicates that summer is not the right time to release a Potter movie. That's all. With the same opening weekend as it had in June, if released in November, Harry Potter 3 would have made $270 million at least.

honestly its all speculation, but i dont think youve convinced me enough.

i could agree if HP2 grossed more than HP1... then id see your point with HP3 having a lesser gross because of the summer.

but i just think that with that big of a drop between 1 and 2, it puts the franchise on the proverbial down-turn until the final movie, where it will go gang-busters cause its the end.

i think i sit on the side that says that HP3 would have dropped whether it was in november or december. i really dont think the release date truly affects a movie of this caliber.

seriously, you could release this film in september and itll make 200 million easily.

What Lecter and insomniac said.