Updated:
1. Hitch
2. Star Wars Episode III
3. Madagasscar
4. Longest Yard
5. Mr. and Mrs. Smith
6. Batman Begins
7. War of the Worlds
8. Fantastic Four
9. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

locks:
Lion Witch Wardrobe
King Kong
Harry Potter 4

Good chance: (86-99%)
Chicken Little

Decent chance: (61-85%)
Legend of Zorro (up)
Dick and Jane (new)

Not that bad of a chance (could go either way): (41-60%)
Wallace and Grommit

Don't Think so: (20-40%)
The Producers
Corpse Bride (new)
Munich (new)
Red Eye (new)
Valliant (new) (There Shack! just for you!)

Damn right! And Dukes the last really good chance for a while for 40 millers is out.

What about Get Rich Or Die Tryin?

Yeah that should be on there.

Also I think Fun With Dick and Jane should be at least in the good/great chance(86%-99%) level with Chicken Little. Its Jim Carrey doing his dumb antics thing, his track record for those types of movies are pretty damn good. Bruce Almighty was 67/242, absolutely amazing. Then you can go back to Liar Liar, Dumb and Dumber, Ace: Ventura, The Mask, he can bring it. The appeal on this isn't as great as him playing god but its not bad.

Also 45% chance at least, I would say they could make it:
Rumor Has It
Cheaper by the Dozen 2

Rumor Has It has Jennifer Aniston success written all over it, that and Kevin Costner making a stride to get back into his A-list fram of mind, it has a definite chance. And it looks appealing with some decent 'Harmless lighthearted lifting movie with some alright acting scenes, great to let your load off in' reviews, it could do it. Cheaper by the Dozen 2 on the other hand is a bonified hyped movie I say, definitly could scream out a 41 mil opening at least, even up to 52 mil maybe, it has a chance. The cast is all back, Steve Martin, Bonnie Hunt, Hilary Duff. Cheaper by the Dozen made it into the top ten in its year with 130 mil I believe, this could do that maybe more.

Fun with Dick and Jane does have a good chance, but the only reason I wouldn't consider it a great chance is because it's opening on a Wednesday and it's going to have a weird weekend where it'll drop on Saturday and likely stay the same or increase on Sunday.

But, yes, Jim Carrey will make this movie a huge hit this Christmas. If it opens as well as Meet the Fockers, it has a shot at $200 million total.

Wednesday, yeah I wasn't contemplating that, it'll have a good run though for sure though. Ok yeah it should be kept in good chance. If it was a Friday opener it would be guaranteed 40 mil almost I say. It can still do it.

Hmm, it's interesting to look back and see all those "lock" predictions for The Ring Two, heh.

Oh and I guess only three more movies will open above $40 million for the rest of the year:

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong

Fun with Dick and Jane and Chicken Little both have a chance as well, but I think they'll barely miss out.

One question: If Rumor Has It is released on Sunday(Christmas Day) and it amasses 40 mil in like its first 3 days it doesn't count as a weekend? Because otherwise it would be a definite chance.

I think releasinf movies on a Saturday or Sunday (especially Sunday) just because it's Christmas day is incredibly stupid. Unless, you're trying to go for the best opening day record (which most Christmas day releases aren't) then why waste good millions from Friday and Saturday even if they might be Christmas Eve???

Anyway.... I think 12 is a good number. How many did we have last year?
It's sad to think that from now on till the end of the year, we know only 3 movies will make it, at most 4. Just makes September and October such a bla timeframe to look forward to in terms of box office.

12 is guaranteed, we'll probably go higher. Chicken Little maybe, Zorro probably not but has a chance, and I'll stick with Rumor Has It if they get enough sense to move it to Friday. Otherwise no. Cheaper By the Dozen 2 could do it but its my personal belief that it won't.

Cheaper by the Dozen 2 will be crushed by other December releases and it's being pretty undermarketed as of now (i.e. no one knows it's coming out). It'll be lucky to make $25 million opening weekend.

I think that 'The Fog' has a slim chance as 'The Grudge' got around 39 million during its opening weekend and that didn't have name recognition.

Actually, it's been pretty much talked about on MTV for a while.

Yeah, the Steve Martin and Hilary Duff appeal should be pretty high on it. Carmen Electra, Eugene Levy, all decent grabs. I don't think Kutcher is in this one but thats probably all for the better. I think if its reviews are good, and its marketed extremely well, it could maybe get a Meet The Fockers original-sequel multiplier, which would be like 210 mil or so, but thats the absolute ceiling, I doubt it'll go that high. My early guess is that it'll grab maybe 125-130 mil total equaling the first, maybe 155 mil or so if it does alright, 190 mil if it does excellent.

The only thing is if Rumor Has It is a much more appealing film I think right now, so if the reviews and WOM on that are better it may grab alot of the audience. If RHI gets bad WOM and not so great reviews, meaning Cheaper By the Dozen 2 gets better WOM and better reviews, then Cheaper By the Dozen 2 will blow it out of the water with at least 150+mil lock, probably going higher. CbtD2 has better potential actually probably, Rumor Has It isn't aiming as high as its going for about 110 mil to call it a success.

But Rumor is probably going to be the better film, so it won't be as hurt as Cheaper as Cheaper is expected to outperform it. Rumor is probably going to hurt Cheaper, if it is a success then Cheaper won't pass 115 mil most likely. If Rumor tanks then Cheaper has all the family comedy audience meaning it could get up to 155-175 mil, a major hit.

The Grudge had so much more going for it, though. It had an actress with somewhat of a fanbase (Sarah Michelle Gellar), it was the first movie to start the huge and ongoing horror movies wave, it cashed in on the success of The Ring. The Fog comes out in the year of the worst horror movies overload in history. Incase you haven't noticed, horror movies just don't do well anymore. House of Wax, Dark Water...

I'd say there are still a few movies that will reach the mark... Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire as well as King Kong are locks. But Chicken Little, Get Rich Or Die Tryin, The Chronicles Of Narnia, and Fun With Dick And Jane have great chances too.

Fine I'll update this with the suggestions i have been getting!

Updated:
1. Hitch
2. Star Wars Episode III
3. Madagasscar
4. Longest Yard
5. Mr. and Mrs. Smith
6. Batman Begins
7. War of the Worlds
8. Fantastic Four
9. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

locks:
Lion Witch Wardrobe
King Kong
Harry Potter 4

Good chance: (86-99%)
Chicken Little
Dick and Jane (up)

Decent chance: (61-85%)
Legend of Zorro

Not that bad of a chance (could go either way): (41-60%)
Wallace and Grommit
Get Rich or Die Trying (new)
Rumor has it (new)

Don't Think so: (20-40%)
The Producers
Corpse Bride
Munich
Red Eye
Valliant (There Shack! Just for you!)
V For Veredda (new)
Flightplan (new)
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (new)
Yours Mines and Ours (new)

No, horror movies don't do well in the middle of the summer with so much competition. In the fall and spring they tend to do much better. Just look at how Skeleton Key is performing much stronger then Dark Water in mid August.

How many 40+ OWs did we have last year?

Thirteen.

2003 holds the record with fourteen.

1. Hitch
2. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
3. Madagascar
4. The Longest Yard
5. Mr. and Mrs. Smith
6. Batman Begins
7. War of the Worlds
8. Fantastic Four
9. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
10. Chicken Little

Locks
11. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
12. King Kong

Great Chance
13. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe

Good Chance
14. Fun with Dick and Jane

Looks like it'll be a tie with last year unless Fun with Dick and Jane can pull it off.

I think Narnia is as much a lock as King Kong is. I see Fun With Dick and Jane in the 30-40M range, unless the TV ads are hilarious. It is possible, but I would only give it a fair chance at breaking 40M OW at this point.

Yeah, Narnia is a lock, IMO. If Lemony Snicket's which has a much less popular book and a darker touch to it could pull off $30 million, this one can top $40 million.