There have been a lot of talks about how bad/disappointing box-office is this year, so here's another thing that'll underline that once again. Do you realize that this year will most likely be the first year since 2000 (which had none) with only one single $300+ million grosser? The years 2004, 2003 and 2002 had three movies with $300+ million each while 2001 had two (Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone, LOTR: Fellowship of the Ring).

That' set a new low so far. The only movie so far that has crossed the mark is Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith and with War of the Worlds and Madagascar by far failing to come close to the mark, I don't see any other movie crossing it this year. I mean, we actually only have two movies with over $200 million so far and we are already in August. That is sad by itself. But having only one $300 million grosser is really unusual after the three-$300+ million-grossers-streak 2002-2004.


That is not to say that there aren't any contenders to make it. In the following, I will list the only three movies that I believe at least have a shot at making $300 million:


Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - It certainly has the potential, but I just don't think that after the second movie made $262 million and the third $249 million, this one will all of sudden make $50+ million more than the previous. It will have a slightly bigger opening and definitely better legs, but I see it topping out at around $270-280 million which should be the area where all the upcoming Harry Potter movies (maybe except for the last) will end up in.


King Kong - This one is a bit like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, i.e. quite unpredictable. I think it's a lock for $150 million, but anything beyond that is possible. This December, however, is pretty full with high-profile movies (even though not all of that caliber), so I expect it to not have legs as great as any of the LOTR flicks, but it should be enough to cross $200 million. If it is really good and really clicks with the audiences, à la Pirates of the Caribbean, then it can make $300+ million. It certainly looks like a lot of fun. However, as of now, I'll stick with the prediction of around $240-270 million.


The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - This one has enormous potential, but might be a bit hurt by the fantasy overkill and be seen as a LOTR-rip-off by those who don't know the series. Besides that, it has another huge fantasy movie - Harry Potter - released just four weeks before it comes out. That'll hurt as well. Moreover, after the rather disappointing performance of Lemony Snicket's last year, I am not too sure of this one. I had it pegged at around $260-280 million, but right now I see it making around $215-220 million.


Other than these two, I really don't see any other having a chance.

I'm predicting King Kong to be the other one this year.

Of course, it's not a lock, but it's the only movie I have faith in to make $300+ million total for the rest of the year. The director is not only excellent, but bankable. The trailer is action-packed and looks to be a major crowd pleaser this holiday season. It will obviously have some great legs considering that it is around the time of Christmas, which even gave Blade: Trinity a 3x multiplier. The only thing that stands in the way is competition from Fun with Dick and Jane and Narnia.

I could see an opening weekend around $65 million (plus $30-35 million from Wednesday and Thursday), and a multiplier similar to Return of the King (around 4-4.5x), which would be a total around $280-320 million total.

Oh, and maybe we don't have more than one $300+ million movie, but we'll beat last year for $200+ million movies. 2004 had 6 (Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, Passion of the Christ, Meet the Fockers, Incredibles, HP), while 2005 should beat that with:

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
War of the Worlds
Batman Begins (lock)
Wedding Crashers (great chance)
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (decent chance)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (lock)
Chicken Little (all it really needs is a Madagascar-ish opening weekend, and the legs should push it past $200 million - good chance)
The Chronicles of Narnia (great chance)
King Kong (I would call it a lock, but not quite yet...)
Fun with Dick and Jane (Bruce Almighty, anyone? Lower opening, significantly better legs)

Yeah, theres some movies with a chance to do with but it's a long shot except Harry Potter i'd say. It has the best chance at 300m, Narnia just doesnt seem like a movie that would spark HUGE interest, it could do over 200m, but I dont know yet, yeah yeah the book is huge but i'll have to wait and see how the interest is with the general public and King Kong just doesnt seem like it'll do over 300m, like you said 150m is probably a lock, I do think it'll have a huge opening, but I dont know how it'll hold and how good it'll be, 300m seems like a long shot and I see it getting 250m tops.

King Kong is my choice, it'll be the perfect winter movie, I think. The director and cast are amazing so they should help. I see 310-335 for it, second place this year. HP4 will make 290 mil I think, while Narnia is 205 mil maybe.

Harry Potter obviously has no chance. My guess would be Kong if any film does it, although Narnia is possible.

It's certainly possible that we will only see one.

The only one I see as having the potential is Goblet. It probably will only make 240 but there's always the chance that it could have unexpectedly good word of mouth or the competition be unexpectedly weak.

Predict:
HP - 240
Narnia - 200
King Kong - 180

So yeah, I expect the year to end with just Sith as the only 300 flick.

I would post the 'clap' emoticon but ....

Narnia's my choice. Had it been the sole occupant of late autmn/winter action/fantasy, as Jackson's stuff was for the last three years, it would have beaten out Sith with Shrek 2 type numbers. As Potter and Kong are out, they'll all shoot eachother in the foot (but Potter beats them chronologically, so will suffer least). Narnia loses a good 75 million right there, but barring really terrible WOM and reviews, it could still pull 300. Kong is more adult oriented. Regardless of how good it is (and actually if the better it is the more likely it will get a PG-13 or R rating) it will not appeal to very young people, and so the parents forced to accompany will all select a different (Narnia) movie.

At the moment I dont see HP, Kong or Narnia doing it. The only way is Kong getting "LOTR Reviews" .

again, narnia is the only one that should be even close to a guarantee.

king kong might make it

HP has no chance of clearing 300 million.

I dont see any of them doiung 300mill.
Kong:240
HP4:235
Narnia:210

The only one that has a chance is narnia if it has the passion effect where church groups go out in droves to see it but right now i dont see it.

I believe FUN WITH DICK & JANE may've had December been less crowded. Anywho, I don't believe anything will, not even NARNIA or KONG. SITH'll be the only film in 2005 to pass $300 million...

First off, Passion is the only church movie to ever get church goers out in droves, EVER. There is no way Narnia will have that affect.

That is not to say that Narnia won't have people coming in droves to see it, just that it won't be church goers (going because their church is talking about it, even though I am sure church goers will see it).

Narnia is NOT as popular as LotR, and I would say that it is all but impossible for the WOM to be better than LotR movies. So any gross that is 300+ million I think is out of the question. However, I think Narnia is a lock for 200 million. Outside of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, Narnia is the most popular fantasy series of all time. In terms of quality I think it is better than Harry Potter (but worse than Narnia). Just the "next LotR" alone I think will get this movie the big opening it needs to get past 200 million, plus the holiday legs will let is get a very decent gross. I just don't think 300 million is possible given FotR barely passed the mark.

Harry Potter 4 could do it. I think Harry Potter 3 didn't do as well as it should of because of the poor WOM of the previous two (much like Batman Begins, even though not to the same extent), PoA was a much better movie than the other two, and hopefully will get people anticipated for the 4th. Although the WOM for PoA was not nearly as good as lets say Batman Begins, I think it will still be enough to see the first increase in gross for a Harry Potter movie. Although, I still don't think it will pass 300 million, 270-300 million is very possible.

King Kong I think has the best opportunity to pull it off. It has the best release date out of all of the films (weekend before Christmas). Has the hottest director in the world right now. And its trailer has gotten amazing WOM. Whether it will be a good enough movie to make 300 million is still up in the air. But I think quality is the only thing holding this movie back from the 300 million gross.

I agree with Doc, I don't think anything else will make anything near 300 mill. I think Kong and Narnia will make about 220, and Potter will do about 250 but nothing else will get near 300.

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - This could cross 300 million if the WOM is tremendous but as of now I don't see it, given that the last film didn't why would this one?

King Kong - I don't think this film has much of a chance, to be honest. It could only if Jackson replicated the magic of LOTR and what are the chances of that?

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - This is the one I do believe has the best shot of any film. It has the fantasy element which made LOTR successful, may be rated PG, and is based on a wildly successful series of books.

Goblet of Fire could easily do it. A book and a movie have never came out in the same year, so it could spark a 2nd $300M grosser.

I think GOBLET OF FIRE will be able to. It's got the advantage of the book coming out during the same year, and people are craving more HARRY POTTER byu the day. Plus, the third was widely considered to be the best film in the series.

Goblet of Fire is the middle of the road in the Potter series. If Chamber and Azkaban didn't do it, Goblet surely will not.

King Kong... eh, I don't think it will, either. $200 million, maybe. MAYBE.

Sith might be the only one. Unless, you know... Wedding Crashers has FREAKISHLY long legs. *joke*

I will guarantee that Potter does not make 300 mill....it has dropped significantly since the first and it will more than likely do the same in this one.

No movie from winter of 2005 will get to $300M.

$250m is the bar. Only HP4 has a good shot. The rest would be lucky to get to $200m.

Oh, totally! In fact, it was the teaser trailer for PoA that got me so intrigued that I read all five books so I could be caught up to watch the movie! I had never seen the first two films, and only saw them after finishing the books and before PoA came out.... Thus far, PoA's my fav. HP film.

So, for me, the excitement is still new 'cause I've only been a fan for about a year and a half. I'm *itching* to see a new HP movie, even if it *is* based on one of my least favorite of the HP books. I think the action will lend itself well to a film.

And the director is carrying on Cuaron's darker vision, so I'm *really* anxious to see Goblet!

Joy

when the other harry potter films have been decreasing quite a bit movie by movie, i dont understand why people say its going to make more than 250 million.

the last one didnt make it, so why should we think the next one will?



without seeing the first film? WOM is built after people see it and they tell their friends. this film could go gang-busters, we dont know how big it can be.

however, the odds of this being a terrible movie are slim. the director is great, the source material is great, the track record of these genre films is great recently, disney wont let this movie suck.

Well, there is a difference between terrible and brilliant. I don't think Narnia will be terrible (and as a fan, I sure hope not!), but it might be around the same level as the first two Harry Potter flicks and if there is one thing I am sure about then that is that Narnia's fanbase is certainly not bigger than Harry Potter's. Considering only one Harry Potter film passed $300 million so far and that only by $17.5 million, I doubt Narnia can pull it off.

Well Attack of the Clones made $130M less than Phantom Menace so shouldn't Revnge of the Sith have made much less than AOTC?

Can't use that logic for franchises like Harry Potter or Star Wars.

i explained in the narnia thread that this logic is incorrect.

revenge of the sith was the last movie in the star wars trilogy.

the goblet of fire is just another harry movie. its not the end.

if this was the final harry potter episode then yes, the movie would gross a lot of bank.

you cant compare the goblet of fire with the revenge of the sith because one is the final episode of one series, while goblet is the 4th out of supposed 7.




i argue that narnia is just as popular as harry potter if not more.

however, the only reason i see narnia coming up short from the first harry potter is repeated viewings.

the fact is that older people do not see too many films.

my dad, for example. my dad is a prime reason for why certain movies succeed and some dont. if my dad goes to see a film, its probably a big film.

case in point... my dad has only seen a handful of movies in theaters in a few years.

2001... lotr:fotr
2002...spiderman and lotr:ttt
2003...lotr:rotk

he sees the movies that matter to him. the ones that get the non-movie goers to see. my dad read books as a kid, comic and non-fiction.

my dads favorite books are the lotr series. right behind that is narnia.

youre gonna get a lot of people like this... middle-aged men and women who didnt see harry potter, who watched lotr.

narnias fanbase will be huge... the only thing against it is that very young kids wont watch this in repeated viewings like they will with harry potter.

narnia's gross will be 25 million off the first harry potter's film gross with somewhere in the range of 295 - 305 million.