In alpha order:

* Not released yet.

The Aviator *
Closer *
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finding Neverland *
Kinsey *
The Phantom of the Opera *
Passion of the Christ
Ray
Sideways *
Spanglish
A Very Long Engagment *

Anything else?

01. Does anybody honestly think Hotel Rwanda and Vera Drake will upset a film like Eternal Sunshine or Kinsey or Sideways?

02. Alexander: It comes out in two weeks and the reviews that have been floating around have NOT been kind. Balance this with the fact that I haven't heard ANYTHING great about it aside from comments about Val Kilmer's abilities. This (IMO) only helps The Passion of the Christ and A Very Long Engagement.

03. The buzz on Phantom is conflicted (depending on who you believe) but overall positive.

04. Focus' only remaining horse is Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, I'm sorry Motorcycle Diaries fans.

05. The Incredibles (despite recent chatter) will not be nominated for best picture.

06. Fahrenheit 9/11 is dead. The time has passed. They should have won their documentary award, but even the Democrats are both fairly and unfairly pointing a lot of blame at Moore.

Up to date predictions for early November:

The Aviator (M'max)
Closer (Sony)
Kinsey (Fox)
The Passion of the Christ (Lions Gate)
A Very Long Engagement (Warner)

Best Alternates:

Ray (Universal) in place of everything but Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Focus) in place of Closer or Kinsey
The Phanom of the Opera (Sony) only if Closer fails.

- Finding Neverland, opened yesterday, near me, in limited release. Do you know when it is going wide. All opening dates just say yesterday with nothing about the wide release.

- On Finding Neverland ( besides the assumed Depp ), Closer & Aviator, are there any expected acting nominations?

Next week, the 19th I think.


People have been talking on other websites and in reviews about Winslett in conjunction with Depp.

Closer seems to be Julia Roberts, Natalie Portman, Clive Owen and Jude Law or some combination of them.

Aviator is mostly Leo and Cate Blanchett.

I'm aware of the recent negative buzz for Alexander, but I don't know... I'm still not convinced that it's out of the running.

But I am removing it from my prediction list, just because negative buzz (whether it be legit or not) is still negative buzz.

I think you're dead on with 4 of your predictions, though, add-rock (can I call ya add-rock?:))

If indeed Alexander does fail, I think A Very Long Engagement will be taking this year's epic slot, not The Passion. I also think Finding Neverland has picked up some momentum recently and will only increase as it expands.

My current predictions:

The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland
Kinsey
A Very Long Engagement

Yeah you can call me add-rock.

Alexander is a little beyond "buzz" at this time, because it's nearly to release and people, actual people, have had an opportunity to see it, and it sounds a lot like it is as big a contendor as Troy is. In fact, Troy probably has better chances at any sort of acting nomination at this point, if the reviews are to be believed. Can this change? Sure, but everything from here on out has to go in Alexander's favor, including box office. I think we're looking at a lukewarm reaction at best with a lot of technicals thrown in most likely. Re: The Last Samurai.

I think Warner Bros. is strong enough that they will get one pick in there though, and A Very Long Engagement has a lot going for it, especially if they have to scrap Alexander due to a bad reaction.

I think if Passion of the Christ fails, it will be replaced by another independent and/or a crowd pleaser... or semi independent. With no Passion I see:

The Aviator
Closer
Kinsey
Ray
A Very Long Engagment

Maybe Phanotm of the Opera substituting for Ray.

I just can't see Miramax getting two best picture nominees this year. :?

I guess the thing about Miramax having two nominees is right (unless The Aviator has been financed by WB)...thus, Finding Neverland won't get anything, sadly. And, without the BP support, Mr. Depp won't be able to beat out Foxx for Best Actor. A nominitation is a near-lock, though.

Right now, I think Hotel Rwanda will take Kinsey or Closer's spot. It just seems like the kinda year...

The Aviator
Closer
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda
Sideways

Also, if The Aviator is part a WB film, would they still nominate another WB film, A Very Long Engagement?

I wouldn't say "won't bet getting anything", just not best picture. But hey, there are only five slots and one of them (Aviator) is by all accounts, buzz, politics, reviews, etc. a guarantee. Depp may be nominated (he seems to be the strongest part of the movie) and hey... adapted screenplay is also a good bet, but I already think it's between Foxx and Bardem as far as winning is concerned.


It was my understanding that it was primarily a Warner Bros. product for awhile but then because of Warner Bros.' heavy fourth quarter output (which, ironically, was probably mostly Alexander) they decided to hand over distribution rights to Miramax. That makes it as much of a Miramax film as Ray is a Universal film (Ray was produce independently).

That makes The Aviator this year's co-production, which previously includes Master and Commander, The Hours, Titanic, etc.

Warner Bros. IS handling the international distribution. But in the end it means that The Aviator's Oscar push will primarily come from the big "M" and with them having the problems that they are having this year, I can't see them pushing as hard as they would need to be to get Finding Neverland in as well as The Aviator.

- After seeing the Phantom trailer, I am wondering how it will do at the awards or even nominations. I liked it but I am not sure if it will follow in Moulin Rouge steps or especially Chicago. I don't think it is a lock.

As Phantom has a darker tone and a less none cast than Gere, Zeta-Jones and Renee Z.

- On Finding Neverland after seeing, I would rather it get the Best Picture than Best Actor. I want Jim Carrey to get the nomination for Eternal first. If there is room for Depp then I am OK with him getting the award. Not that Depp wasn't good, I just liked the movie more for the whole than the individual performances.

Current Predictions
The Aviator
Closer
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Sideways
A Very Long Engagement

If The Aviator is as good as rumored, and Closer ends up being great, then this selection of 5 films would probably be one of the best line ups of the last 20 years.

Actually, aside from 2002, almost all of the lineups of the last five years have been great.

I wish I had so much more tiem to discuss this...
But since I have to leave now, I'll just say a few things....

1) yes, F9/11 is out of the running
2) no animated film will get in the best 5 picture slots
3) Alexander is not yet dead, I still have faith, though I am very close to taking off my predictions.
4) Eternal Sunshine will NOT get nominated
5) Ray has an EXTREMELY low chance ta a nomination
6) I saw Kinsey and it's not near A Beautiful Mind. It was great, but there was somethign that just held it back from screaming 'epic biopic' It will NOT get nominated, TRUST me.

The possible nominees as I see them are...

Aviator
Closer
Phantom of the Opera
Alexander
Finding Nemo
Sideways

on the outside
Passion
Hotel Rwanda

I don't know where this buzz is building for A very Long Engagement, but it seems unlikely to get nominated. On top of being foreign, it just seems too small. Then again, it's yet to be released, and I will see it, so we'll have to wait on that one!)

Raffiki, I think you mean Finding Neverland instead of Finding Nemo since that is contrary to your point 2.

Finding NEMO?

Heh, read above. andaroo elaborated on why Finding Neverland won't be nominated (both films - Aviator/Neverland - were produced by Miramax)

I don't see why Miramax can't get two nominated this year. Cold Mountain was snubbed partly because of backslash against Harvey and Miramax, but also partly because the film itself isn't that great either. The year when Gangs of New York was nominated, Chicago won. So it's not as if it's unprecedented to have two come from the same studio.

ya, one year had 3 miramax films I believe in the best picture 5.

The only thing stopping Neverland right now is buzz. It seems it build it up and then the released it limited and the buzz for some reason just stopped in its track. Maybe its expansion will cause more talk....

and yes, I meant finding Neverland originally.

Why these four?

Eternal Sunshine: Focus is a player in the Best Picture race, this is one of the best reviewed pictures of the year.

Kinsey: Strong performances by Neeson and Linney, strong critical support. You are right it is not an "epic biopic" it's smaller.

Ray: Popular support has been relatively amazing. Universal is a player in the Best Picture race.

To me, these three pictures are a wash with a film like Sideways to fill that small independenty-y picture slot.


It's Warner Bros and Jeunet. Mostly now because Alexander is dying and if you don't think of Aviator as a Warner Bros property, then A Very Long Engagement fits the bill to a t.

If Passion isn't nominated and Phantom fails at the box office and with Oscars this may be the first time in a long stretch of years where there is not a really popular (read: high box office) film nominated for Best Picture. In that case, I think for most people, most of the nominees really blend in together.

2003's nominees had a LOT more personality and life to them and by this time last year we were down to about 7 films that really had a shot.

Warner Brothers isn't really much of an Oscar player until last year when they had two main contenders in Mystic River and The Last Samurai, and they still showed a lack of understanding on what to focus for their campaign and had a somewhat disappointing results in term of nominations. The Aviator and The Phantom of the Opera will be more than enough for them to handle.

Bumping this thread - think it may get some interesting comments after reviewing.

---------------------------

In reviewing this thread, not one mention of Million Dollar Baby.

I know that MDB was filmed in about 40 days but how come other movies are talked about before their release but there was nothing on MDB.

It was scheduled for 2005 for most of the year...

Yeah, Million Dollar Baby is one of those rare examples of something coming out of nowhere.

Last year, all around was a crazy year for Oscars.