Revenge of the Sith is a lock, so who will get the other 2 slots?

Sin City was cartoonish, even though it was by design, so I'm not looking for a nom in this category.

Batman Begins was a bit...pedestrian.

Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy was nothing special, from what I saw.

War of the Worlds is a definite frontrunner. (ILM does rule, afterall \:D/ )

Fantastic Four stands a really good shot at it, since it's the most elaborate superhero FX movie on the slate.

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire is a possibility, but nothing in those movies, thus far, have been wow inducing like other franchise films.

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe could slip in there, but more needs to be seen.

King Kong isPeter Jackson, and I think they will consider him and his movies rewarded enough recently, and with a lot of competition, I think it'll get shut out unless it's too incredible to pass over.

ROTS is a lock. Batman has traditional FX going for it and a big deal was made of it. WoTW has a good chance. FF4 (cept for mr fantastics) is looking like it but might get dismissed for just plain ol fun, Hitch hiker is a no no, potter ... well .. we'll see .. king kong i think is quite locked for a nomination but prolly will have the least chance for the win .. chronicles .. that all depends on if it turns into a phenomenon or not.

I still think the studio politics pit ROTS and War of the Worlds against each other (and by extension Harry Potter). WETA will get a King Kong nom, I'm pretty sure.

I think Narnia is starting to look like a good contendor... the awards tend to nominate one of the "smaller" companies doing work outside of ILM/WETA.

We'll see. Batman is not out of the running completely either.

I think the "final 7" will be:

Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith
War of the Worlds
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Batman Begins
King Kong
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe

then either Fantastic Four or something we haven't seen... like maybe The New World has good CG or something.

=D> Herbie =D> - haven't you seen the trailer or for the breast reduction on Lindsay.

King Kong is a lock.

Sith
Worlds
Kong

Seem most likely to me.

You and I must have seen different Buckbeaks then.


ROTS is locked into a nom and maybe a win. They were too good to ignore. The rest of the contenders (Potter, Narnia, and Kong, anyway) have almost entirely unfinished FX shots, so I can't judge those yet. I'll wait to see WOTW and Fantastic 4 as well. I do agree, though, that Batman's "old-fashioned stunts and camera tricks" deal might be able to secure a nomination.

I'd say that's eligible for Visual Effects, makeup and Costume design.

RETURN OF THE SITH
KING KONG
WAR OF THE WORLDS
HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE

There can only be three movies, movies. Unless it acts like most other categories and we see a higher number of movies pushed for a nomination then in years past (last year only had about seven movies pushed for the FX award, which had three nominees altogether).

Revenge of the Sith
War of the Worlds
King Kong
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Chronicles of Narnia

If Burton goes ahead and nom/wins animation for Corpse Bride as I suspect, we could switch up Chocolate Factory for Harry Potter.

I see the point of Sith and Worlds being production politics victims, but I don't see it happening. They're too different as far as tone, and both gaining such notoriety from huge directors. They'll both get their due.

Chocolate Factory won't probably even make the final 7 with the nominations crowd. It's more a production design type of thing.

Potter basically won't/can't be nominated at this point. For it to be nominated I think Star Wars AND War of the World will have to be nominated, and there is no way three ILM films will be nominated.

I wouldn't go so far as to say WOTW will be making the final cut. I think the FX were great, but they can be topped easily with what's coming up this year.

I actually would go so far as to say WOTW wont get a SFX nod.

HP4 and the Dragon are sure to get a nod, ditto Star Wars ... I would say Kong has a better shot than WOTW.

Is Visual Effects one of the awards that can have more than three nominees? I know Makeup had four nominees in 1999 (and three were from crap movies).

My revised take is that Worlds will win, Sith and Batman will get nominations. Batman did have some cool shots and should be considered a contender if Kong disappoints which I think it will. HP4 has an outside chance but the effects in those movies have never been cutting edge.

I'd agree completely, though I'd say The New World won't make the final cut. With a budget of 30-50 million (depending which source you listen to) I think we've seen about as much as the movie has in it, so I can't picture it getting a spot. Fantastic Four has a chance, but I can't imagine both it and Batman getting nominated, and considering the budget I'm not sure the effects are going to be that prominent in comparison to Star Wars or Kong. Right now I'd go with Star Wars, King Kong, and either Batman or War of the Worlds. Harry Potter has some stuff that would work well, but I think it's going to get the short end of the stick considering it still has several other movies to impress us with, whereas WOTW won't have a sequel and this was the last Star Wars ever. Isn't Narnia WETA? If so, I'd eliminate it's chances as King Kong is a far more likely canidate.

Narnia isn't Weta, they're only doing some of the weapons for it.

Correct, WETA is doing production design for Narnia only.

Special Effects are being handled by the Daredevil/Superman Returns folks.

Seriously, am I the only one that saw Buckbeak? That creature was amazing and could give Gollum a run for his money.

OK, that's a bit of a stretch, but Buck Beak is one of the best CG creations ever. Period.

Buckbeak was pretty amazing, I also agree.

If you were joking, you have amazing foresight

King Kong, War of the Worlds, Star Wars, and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire are the frontrunners in my mind. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe has an outside shot.

I second that.

Hmm, I no longer think that War of the Worlds will get a nom because the other three movies I have in mind are just looking too strong.

I am thinking:

ROTS
King Kong
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire


I am pretty sure the Oscar will go to ROTS, though.