Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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But, jb007, maybe $400+ million predictions are crazy, but how can you justify a total like your prediction?
That's even more crazy than a $400+ million prediction...
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:33 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
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Location: Bonn, Germany
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 jb007 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: jb007 wrote: The success of POTC had to do more with the competition or lack there of during its release more than its quality.
I have set the total for POTC2 at 60% of the original, which is normal for most sequels. Hmm, I'd say POTC's success was because of its originality (well, because of Johnny Depp's originality) and the lack of adventure flicks. Just look at Sahara, National Treasure and both The Mummy flicks. All of them were hits to some degree (okay, Sahara is arguable, but it still did well). POTC actually had lots of competition. It faced a $20+ million opener in its second weekend and THREE $20+ million openers in its third week, followed by $30+ million openers in its weeks #4, #5 and #6. Five movies that were released during the first 5 weeks of its run made over $100 million in total (Bad Boys II, Spy Kids 3D, Seabiscuit, S.W.A.T. and American Wedding). But no blockbuster after May 30, 2003 helped POTC immensely. If you guys want to predict 400-500 million go for it. No, but I think $250-300 million is a fair deal... _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:51 pm |
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jb007
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Just like my prediction for the Incredibles was about $255M (Monster's Inc) though the rest of you were at 300-400M. The prediction for POTC2 is 60% of the original as for most sequels and is more viable than the silly 400-500m predictions.
POTC had a very fortunate period for it to succeed and the sequel will not have the luxury.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:54 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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jb007 wrote: Just like my prediction for the Incredibles was about $255M (Monster's Inc) though the rest of you were at 300-400M. The prediction for POTC2 is 60% of the original as for most sequels and is more viable than the silly 400-500m predictions.
POTC had a very fortunate period for it to succeed and the sequel will not have the luxury. Well, actually, I predicted $250 million for it, too. Everyone was hyping that up because it was Pixar. It wasn't a sequel.
And, this "60%" deal you're talking about mostly applies to movies like action sequels and such. For Disney movies, especially one like this? Hell no. You're obviously very biased about it considering you hated the first one, though the majority of people who saw it loved it.
The movie just had an amazing performance, and loved by all ages. I'd be utterly shocked if it grossed less than $200 million.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:58 pm |
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jb007
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Zingaling wrote: jb007 wrote: Just like my prediction for the Incredibles was about $255M (Monster's Inc) though the rest of you were at 300-400M. The prediction for POTC2 is 60% of the original as for most sequels and is more viable than the silly 400-500m predictions.
POTC had a very fortunate period for it to succeed and the sequel will not have the luxury. Well, actually, I predicted $250 million for it, too. Everyone was hyping that up because it was Pixar. It wasn't a sequel. And, this "60%" deal you're talking about mostly applies to movies like action sequels and such. For Disney movies, especially one like this? Hell no. You're obviously very biased about it considering you hated the first one, though the majority of people who saw it loved it. The movie just had an amazing performance, and loved by all ages. I'd be utterly shocked if it grossed less than $200 million. Then be prepared to be shocked. :wink:
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:59 pm |
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choubachou
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 1796
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If it indeed opens on a Friday, I think it is guranteed to beat Spider-Man's weekend record. PotC2 will be a monster. If it opens on a Wednesday, I'd expect no less than $175M in 5 days.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 3:16 pm |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
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I think it should have good legs.
We're forgetting why Pirates of the Caribbean made $300m on a $45m opening. It had appeal to everyone. Sure, the teenagers will rush out opening weekend, but the older people who loved the first will keep the movie from tumbling.
I'd expect an $80m-ish opening with a $280m finish.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 3:23 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
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Dr. Lecter wrote: BJ wrote: BJ wrote: BJs prediction:
Friday: 52.60m
Saturday: 60.49m +15%
Sunday: 45.36m -25%
Opening Wknd: 158.45m
Domestic total: 444m
2.8 multiplyer 8)
just barely passing shrek/Drek 2 hm, after episode III's opening day this prediction seems somewhat posible now. Exactly Episode II is what shows that it's impossible. POTC 2 will come NOWEHERE near ROTS' hype and you expect it to outdo its first day? Also, you expect the opening weekend record to be beaten by over $40 million right away?  Opening weekend records have been beaten by similar amounts percentage wise a number of times. ROTJ, Batman, HP came close, Spiderman. Obviously, it has never been 40m because the growth is exponential. The current opening weekend record would have been broken 4 times already if not for Wed. and Thur. openers. It's very vulnerable, especially as films open with more on average each year.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 3:42 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
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This appeals to all audiences. I think it has the widest appeal of any film in recent years. WOM is out of this world. It's at #16 all time on the yahoo list in terms of its grade. I think it will simply be the franchise of this decade.
BJ it won't increase on Saturday, it will likely drop.
Opening day: 60m
Opening weekend: 162m
Total: 475m
The legs won't be as poor as many sequels since it has such a wide audience including families.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:21 pm |
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MGKC
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Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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DP07 wrote: Opening day: 60m
Opening weekend: 162m
Total: 475m 
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:34 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
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DP07 wrote: This appeals to all audiences. I think it has the widest appeal of any film in recent years. WOM is out of this world. It's at #16 all time on the yahoo list in terms of its grade. I think it will simply be the franchise of this decade.
BJ it won't increase on Saturday, it will likely drop.
Opening day: 60m
Opening weekend: 162m
Total: 475m
The legs won't be as poor as many sequels since it has such a wide audience including families. :BJs head explodes:
totaly AWESONME!!!!!!!!! :ROCK: :ROCK: _________________The Force Awakens
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:41 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
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Opens on my birthday next year... woohoo! \:D/
If it stays on the Friday, it will almost certainly top the weekend record. $120 million over the weekend, and about $350 million total.
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:05 pm |
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jb007
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Looking at all the predictions, this will easily surpass the bad predictions (including mine  ) for The Ring 2, which supposedly was the sequel to a movie that had super WOM. POTC2 will fall short by $200M to $250M per some of these predictions. I can't wait for July 2006. \:D/
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:24 pm |
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Bodrul
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Opening day: 35m
Opening weekend: 92m
Total: 265m
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:49 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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jb007 wrote: Looking at all the predictions, this will easily surpass the bad predictions (including mine ) for The Ring 2, which supposedly was the sequel to a movie that had super WOM. POTC2 will fall short by $200M to $250M per some of these predictions. I can't wait for July 2006. \:D/ The Grudge, White Noise, Hide and Seek, Boogeyman, and all other horrors killed The Ring Two's chances.
That, and horrible WOM for itself.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:55 pm |
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jb007
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Zingaling wrote: jb007 wrote: Looking at all the predictions, this will easily surpass the bad predictions (including mine ) for The Ring 2, which supposedly was the sequel to a movie that had super WOM. POTC2 will fall short by $200M to $250M per some of these predictions. I can't wait for July 2006. \:D/ The Grudge, White Noise, Hide and Seek, Boogeyman, and all other horrors killed The Ring Two's chances. That, and horrible WOM for itself. Swords and Sandals, baby.
King Arthur, Alexander and Kingdom of Heaven.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:19 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
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How do "swords and sandals" movies have anything to do with Pirates of the Caribbean? If that's seriously you're comparison, it's one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.
No offense. :wink:
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:24 pm |
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jb007
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Jiffy208 wrote: Where did you hear that Shrek sold 50m units? Quote: To boost DVD sales, Mr. Katzenberg has courted one of the nation's most influential retailers, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., and its chief executive, Lee Scott, with frequent calls and visits to the company's Bentonville, Ark., headquarters. That paid off in 2001, when the studio's original "Shrek," with strong support from Wal-Mart, became one of the biggest-selling movies. To date, "Shrek" has sold more than 50 million copies in DVD and video world-wide.
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Last edited by jb007 on Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:38 pm |
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jb007
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Zingaling wrote: How do "swords and sandals" movies have anything to do with Pirates of the Caribbean? If that's seriously you're comparison, it's one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.
No offense. :wink: If you haven't noticed POTC is Swords and Sandals and they are out of favor and that is just one of the reasons.
None taken. Not as dumb as the SUREFIRE The Ring 2 70M Opening weekend. You guys keep digging the graves.
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Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006
The Greatest Actor Ever.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:42 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
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I don't see how you can compare a Disney action/adventure starring two of Hollywood's biggest hunks (unfortunately, Bloom is considered one), which made $300+ million in the box office...to Alexander.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:45 pm |
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jb007
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Zingaling wrote: I don't see how you can compare a Disney action/adventure starring two of Hollywood's biggest hunks (unfortunately, Bloom is considered one), which made $300+ million in the box office...to Alexander. Wasn't this hunk in Kingdom of Heaven? and that did $46M. :razz:
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The Greatest Actor Ever.
Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:47 pm |
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MGKC
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jb007 wrote: Swords and Sandals, baby.
King Arthur, Alexander and Kingdom of Heaven. POTC does not qualify into that genre. Those are so called "epics", POTC does not try to be like that with giant full-scale wars and such. People got tired of that after Lord of the Rings.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:48 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
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jb007 wrote: Zingaling wrote: I don't see how you can compare a Disney action/adventure starring two of Hollywood's biggest hunks (unfortunately, Bloom is considered one), which made $300+ million in the box office...to Alexander. Wasn't this hunk in Kingdom of Heaven? and that did $46M. :razz: I'm not saying he's a box office draw. I mean, Secret Window didn't exactly make $200+ million, either.
What I'm saying isn't that POTC isn't exactly 100% "swords and sandels". It's not even in the same league as Alexander.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:49 pm |
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jb007
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MG Casey wrote: jb007 wrote: Swords and Sandals, baby.
King Arthur, Alexander and Kingdom of Heaven. POTC does not qualify into that genre. Those are so called "epics", POTC does not try to be like that with giant full-scale wars and such. People got tired of that after Lord of the Rings. There are swords and people are wearing sandals and I am not calling it an epic.
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Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006
The Greatest Actor Ever.
Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:51 pm |
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MGKC
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jb007 wrote: MG Casey wrote: jb007 wrote: Swords and Sandals, baby.
King Arthur, Alexander and Kingdom of Heaven. POTC does not qualify into that genre. Those are so called "epics", POTC does not try to be like that with giant full-scale wars and such. People got tired of that after Lord of the Rings. There are swords and people are wearing sandals and I am not calling it an epic. I'm saying that King Arthur, Alexander, and Kingdom of Heaven are more of epics than swords and sandal films.
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| Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:52 pm |
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