Shrek 2 is a family film. Nearly all family films pull a 3.3+ multiplier.

POTC2 should have between a 2.4 and 3 multiplier.

POTC wasn't a family film?! :razz:

It's freakin' Disney. And, it appealed to ALL ages. The first one got such a great multiplier because it was a great family film.

If it was just a great action film, it wouldn't have topped $200 million.

It wont do as good as the original.

90/220

Not exactly, it did get a wider, older audience. So it wasn't your normal family film. Any PG-13 film is not a family film.

My prediction..

Opening: $116 million
Total: $310 million

larger opening MG, larger opening.

POTC got families, but I think it was primarily a teen film more than anything. Most of my friends saw it at least three times over the summer.

If this stays on a Friday opening, then its 3 day weekend will easily top 120 mil and likely get up to around 130-140. With this being a family film, its Sat could and likely would surpass its opening Fri which would give it a great weekend multiplier. I think its Friday could open in the upper 40's and possibly top 50 mil and with an increase on Sat everyone would be going nuts much like when Spidy increased on its Sat. Bruckheimer and company will lay claim to 2006 with around 400 mil and in 2007 with Pirates 3.

$115 million opening
$426 million total

$64M/$194M

Nah I disagree. Most adults I know loved it to death.

that prediction is absolute BS.

why do you think this film will inder perform :?:

Because I thought the movie was absolute garbage except for Depp's performance.

That's really no reason to say that the general public (who absolutely loved the first one) lost interest when they heard you hated it. :razz:

ok, its still going to make 400m+ though :wink:

Damn.

I didn't think the original one was anything special at all.

I concur, even though I like the movie.

These $100m+ opening weekend predictions are much too high imo.

The success of POTC had to do more with the competition or lack there of during its release more than its quality.

I have set the total for POTC2 at 60% of the original, which is normal for most sequels.

not this one. It should act more licke a shrek 2.

I don't think so. Shrek sold 50 million combined vhs and dvd. POTC while successful was not even in the same universe as Shrek as far as home video goes and at best sold a third of what Shrek sold.

jb007, Pirates of the Caribbean was huge on DVD. It sold 10 million in the first week.

I'm sure it sold atleast 40 million units, and that does warrant a huge sequel.

More like 18 million. DVD sales are the frontloaded things EVER.

Anywho...

Opening: 116.9
Total: 388.5 (3.32)

Jon is correct. DVD sales are frontloaded excluding kids movie.

POTC sold 14.85 million copies as compared to 50 million for Shrek. In fact only two movies have sold more than Shrek, The Lion King and Titanic. Now you can see why Shrek 2 was so huge.

Shrek 2 as big it was has sold 35 million units and is expected to hit 40 million (after they lowered their target) by the end of the year.

Hmm, I'd say POTC's success was because of its originality (well, because of Johnny Depp's originality) and the lack of adventure flicks. Just look at Sahara, National Treasure and both The Mummy flicks. All of them were hits to some degree (okay, Sahara is arguable, but it still did well).

POTC actually had lots of competition. It faced a $20+ million opener in its second weekend and THREE $20+ million openers in its third week, followed by $30+ million openers in its weeks #4, #5 and #6. Five movies that were released during the first 5 weeks of its run made over $100 million in total (Bad Boys II, Spy Kids 3D, Seabiscuit, S.W.A.T. and American Wedding).

Where did you hear that Shrek sold 50m units?

But no blockbuster after May 30, 2003 helped POTC immensely. If you guys want to predict 400-500 million go for it.