I'm actually reminded of Charlies Angels 2. This will probably have a lower opening weekend, but about the same total. The tabloids will obviously go ga-ga for this one, but I'm not sure why general audiences will care that much about it. Angelina Jolie is the most sure actor/actress on the planet to have there film bomb, and even Brad Pitt isn't the huge draw people make him out to be. He's only ever had five movies hit 100 million. Troy was a huge historical epic, and Ocean's Eleven/Twelve had a huge cast even without him, leaving Interview with the Vampire and Seven. Otherwise, Sinbad was one of the biggest bombs of it's respective year (although it had little to do with him), Spy Game was a bomb (62 million total vs. a 115 million budget), The Mexican was a very mild hit even with Julia Roberts (57 million budget vs. a 66 million total), Snatch made 30 million (though I wouldn't count that as it's not a very mainstream movie), and the rest of his movies since 12 Monkeys in 1996 have gone from doing slight business (Sleepers 53 million gross vs. a 44 million budget) to all out bombing (Meet Joe Black: 44 million total vs. 90 million budget; Seven Years in Tibet 37 million total vs. 70 million budget; The Devil's Own 42 million total vs. 80 million budget; Fight Club's 37 million total vs. a 140 million budget). He's luckily gone for a lot of quirkier roles rather then selling out, but he's by no means a huge box office draw. So with two stars that are better known for there tabloid exploits then box office drawing muscle, a fun but not spectactular trailer, and no previous connection to any other form of media, I'll be optimistic and say it's a slight hit with a 35 million opening and 100 million total. It could do 25/67, or just MAYBE 40/115, but I doubt it.

You know, you've got a point there.

If I don't think about the actors of this movie and just look at what it looks like, I'd say $40+ million in its opening weekend is assured. But as you said, Jolie IS box-office poison (I mean seriously: Sky Captain, Alexander, Life or something like It, Beyond Borders, Tomb Raider 2...) and Brad Pitt is somewhat of a draw, but rather minor in the States (he's big overseas, though). I don't know....This one looks good, really good and this is a lackluster summer, so some movies will eventually open really well, some that we don't expect. The last trailer isn't much different from the other ones, but they all look good. Besides that, it might have good WoM as it is directed by Doug Liman, so chances are the movie will be liked by masses...

My current predictions:

Opening weekend - $29.5 million

Total gross - $88 million

I'd say this is the sleeper of the summer, maybe $140m, it looks like a ton of fun.

30/85

You know, everyone, including me, is saying it looks like a lot of fun.

But just cuz it looks like that doesn't mean anything. IT could turn out to be pretty bad and have horrible word of mouth. That coupled with huge releases in the immediately proceeding weeks could result in disastrous legs.

I think this one really depends on quality. Even if it's not that great a movie, if it delivers on action fun then it could do pretty good. If even the action is mediocre and the plot too thin, then it's in big trouble.

I'm not sure it will be #1 though.... I think The Longest Yard and Madagascar will have just died down to under $30 million, should either or both of them turn out to be huge blockbusters and so I think the date is fine... I think the date is pure perfection. Anything before would be overshadowed by preceeding box office giants. Anything after would be clobbered with box office giants. What a perfect date. If not the optimum date of release, the only one availabale that would bring the best results.

At this point, I'm thinking $40-45 million opening
And it could close anywhere between $100 and $150 million

*MEMO TO ALL:DUE TO UNFORESEEN EVENTS, WE ARE EXPERIENCING A TICKET RECEIPT DROUGHT THIS YEAR. SO TAKE WHATEVER YOUR TOTAL BOX OFFICE PREDICTION AND SUBTRACT IT BY 25% TO GET YOUR FINAL VOTE*

Before the 2005 BO plague
Opening 27.0 million
Total 73 million

After the 2005 BO plague
Opening 20.0 million
Total 55.0 million

I won't drop mine. Mr. and Mrs. Smith is actually in the summer. It's the first summer movie after my school lets out. It got great reactions last night when I saw House of Wax. The trailer is great, the cast is great, and the time is right.

What to you mean, ticket receipt drought. Not enough tickets are being sold or tickets aren't accounted for???

$20m/$50m

Because it looks fun.

saw the trailer again before Kingdom of Heaven last night and it sill ROCKS! this one and ROTS trailer were the only times the crowds got exicted over.
this should have a huge (over $50 mill) opening weekend take.

*MEMO TO ALL: IF YOU WANT TO ATTEMPT TO MAKE A WITTY AND INSIGHTFUL COMMENT ABOUT THE FAILURE OF MANY HIGH PROFILE MOVIES IN 2005, PLEASE REMEMBER TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT WITTY AND INSIGHTFUL*
:razz:

BUMP

The marketing is amazing for Mr. and Mrs. Smith. The trailer is attached to every movie I've seen in the past two months. I wouldn't be surprised if this did gross $50 million opening weekend, but that's still a stretch.

Nebs I don't get your prediction, you say it looks fun then give a tiny prediction of 20/50. At one time I thought it would make about those numbers but that was because I thought it looked bad.

I'm upping my prediction, it may be stupid but it looks stupid in a summery sense that will go down well. 50 opening, 150 total

37.5 million opening weekend
105 million total-domestic

Take it with a grain of salt, but Mr. and Mrs. Smith is already No. 2 on the moviefone list.

It might just be me, but I feel like the struggling marketplace is calling out for a movie exactly like this one.

I agree. It's the struggling of the market place that makes me increase my prediction for this movie. It just feels like a summer movie that people are ready to rush out to see. I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks 50M.

Neither would I. There's a lot of hype surrounding this movie, and it's the first movie to come out after school gets out (for most). The stars are hot, the time is right, there's no *big* direct competition in the way. This could easily break out with $50 million.

While I wouldn't be surprised either to see this one pass $50 million, I don't think it will quite get there. It'll be fairly frontloaded though, because there's not much else for the action-junkie to see right now, so they'll rush out to see it.

As of right now:
Opening Weekend: $43 million
Total Gross: $110 million

I don't think it can manage more than a $13 million Friday. So my prediction is a $34.3 opening and a $104.9 finish.

Hmm, well at this point I'm feeling sort of unsteady. I could see it going down two very different paths, and I still hold that my 35/95 is a strong possibility. However, I could also see 45/125 or more at this point, depends how it goes.

40m/134m

The marketing has been great, so while I once thought it would get an opening near 30m, I'd now say 40m. Unlike many action films though I think this will have a pretty good multiplier. The summer weekdays will of course help, but I think the real difference is that it is more comedy oriented. Come on MovieDude, this isn't I, Robot, it should have a multiplier of at least 3. :wink:

It's now #1.

I don't think it is going to make 100 mill either. I think it will open modestly with about 30 mill and close with about 85 mill. This will not make 100 mill.