Well, so it should be around $70m for the weekend, which imo is great.

Around $55m for the 3-day weekend, so a drop of 49%. I expect $27m-$22m for the third weekend.



Edit: Wow, congrats on 1,000 Nebs, great job \:D/ =D>

Yeah, it's still a great weekend. And, because of the "not-so-great" Saturday increase, that should soften the drop next weekend atleast. I think a drop around 50-55% next weekend will give it around $24-27 million. It'll still pass $350 million with ease. =D>

If RotS manages to hold off Madagascar and Cinderella Man for the #1 spot next weekend, it would become the first movie since TPM to get three weekends at number one with an opening in May, June, or July.

It will because Madagascar has very mixed WOM at best.

People were saying the same thing about Shark Tale dropping. Then it held up better in the second weekend then all expectations.

So people were fooled by Shark Tale, hopefully it doesn't happen again.

Star Wars: Episode 3 looks like it will be the fastest to $300m or tie the record with Shrek 2.

Well if it mirros AOTC's run from now on then it's headed for a $23.5 mil weekend and a $382 mil total. But I think it has a shot at dropping less because there will be very little opener competition. With just slightly better Sunday to Tuesday drops it could get a $27 mil weekend. I'm not going to open a new thread on it though. :wink:

Yay, fastest to $250m as well.

It didn't even drop 50%

Me likey

Day | ---------- Revenge of the Sith ---------- | --------------------- Shrek 2 --------------------- | ------------------ Spider-Man 2 ------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed | --------------------------------------------- | $11,786,415 (- / -) $11,786,415 | $40,442,604 (- / -) $40,442,604
Thu | $50,013,859 (- / -) $50,013,859 | $9,158,767 (-22.3% / -) $20,945,182 | $23,812,920 (-41.1% / -) $64,255,524
Fri | $33,529,613 (-33% / -) $83,543,472 | $28,340,295 (+209.4% / -) $49,285,477 | $32,452,342 (+36.3% / -) $96,707,866
Sat | $40,693,760 (+21.4% / -) $124,237,232 | $44,797,042 (+58.1% / -) $94,082,519 | $33,748,257 (+4% / -) $130,456,123
Sun | $34,212,468 (-15.9% / -) $158,449,700 | $34,900,541 (-22.1% / -) $128,983,060 | $21,955,628 (-34.9% / -) $152,411,751
Mon | $14,352,807 (-58% / -) $172,802,507 | $11,512,320 (-67% / -) $140,495,380 | $27,661,137 (+26% / -) $180,072,888
Tue | $9,907,771 (-31% / -) $182,710,278 | $8,023,299 (-30.3% / -) $148,518,679 | $12,012,472 (-56.6% / -) $192,085,360
Wed | $8,652,951 (-12.7% / -) $191,363,169 | $8,003,467 (-0.2% / -32.1%) $156,522,146 | $10,034,713 (-16.5% / -75.2%) $202,120,073
Thu | $9,079,570 (+4.9% / -81.8%) $200,442,739 | $8,213,208 (+2.6% / -10.3%) $164,735,354 | $9,137,510 (-8.9% / -61.6%) $211,257,583
Fri | $15,550,000 (+71.3% / -53.6%) $215,993,000 | $20,155,038 (+145.4% / -28.9%) $184,890,392 | $13,858,762 (+51.7% / -57.3%) $225,116,345
Sat | $20,800,000 (+33.8% / -48.9%) $236,793,000 | $27,235,110 (+35.1% / -39.2%) $212,125,502 | $17,916,624 (+29.3% / -46.9%) $243,032,969
Sun | $18,750,000 (-9.9% / -45.2%) $255,543,000 | $24,780,215 (-9% / -29%) $236,905,717 | $13,405,357 (-25.2% / -38.9%) $256,438,326
Mon | $15,650,000 (-16.5% / +9%) $271,193,000 | $23,408,002 (-5.5% / +103.3%) $260,313,719 | $5,767,268 (-57% / -79.2%) $262,205,594

Anyone else notice how the box office trend for the Prequel trilogy is going to mirror the Original Trilogy in that the third film is going to outgross the second one.

OT (before 1997 reissue)

1. A New Hope - $322.7m
2. Empire Strikes Back - $222.7m
3. Return of the Jedi - $263.8m


Prequel Trilogy

1. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
2. Attack of the Clones - $310.6m
3. Revenge of the Sith - $350m+

Ok, so I was about 16 mil off... that not that bad

Day | ---------- Revenge of the Sith ---------- | --------------------- Shrek 2 --------------------- | ------------------ Spider-Man 2 ------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed | --------------------------------------------- | $11,786,415 (- / -) $11,786,415 | $40,442,604 (- / -) $40,442,604
Thu | $50,013,859 (- / -) $50,013,859 | $9,158,767 (-22.3% / -) $20,945,182 | $23,812,920 (-41.1% / -) $64,255,524
Fri | $33,529,613 (-33% / -) $83,543,472 | $28,340,295 (+209.4% / -) $49,285,477 | $32,452,342 (+36.3% / -) $96,707,866
Sat | $40,693,760 (+21.4% / -) $124,237,232 | $44,797,042 (+58.1% / -) $94,082,519 | $33,748,257 (+4% / -) $130,456,123
Sun | $34,212,468 (-15.9% / -) $158,449,700 | $34,900,541 (-22.1% / -) $128,983,060 | $21,955,628 (-34.9% / -) $152,411,751
Mon | $14,352,807 (-58% / -) $172,802,507 | $11,512,320 (-67% / -) $140,495,380 | $27,661,137 (+26% / -) $180,072,888
Tue | $9,907,771 (-31% / -) $182,710,278 | $8,023,299 (-30.3% / -) $148,518,679 | $12,012,472 (-56.6% / -) $192,085,360
Wed | $8,652,951 (-12.7% / -) $191,363,169 | $8,003,467 (-0.2% / -32.1%) $156,522,146 | $10,034,713 (-16.5% / -75.2%) $202,120,073
Thu | $9,079,570 (+4.9% / -81.8%) $200,442,739 | $8,213,208 (+2.6% / -10.3%) $164,735,354 | $9,137,510 (-8.9% / -61.6%) $211,257,583
Fri | $15,579,342 (+71.6% / -53.5%) $216,022,081 | $20,155,038 (+145.4% / -28.9%) $184,890,392 | $13,858,762 (+51.7% / -57.3%) $225,116,345
Sat | $20,918,340 (+34.3% / -48.6%) $236,940,421 | $27,235,110 (+35.1% / -39.2%) $212,125,502 | $17,916,624 (+29.3% / -46.9%) $243,032,969
Sun | $18,708,290 (-10.6% / -45.3%) $255,648,711 | $24,780,215 (-9% / -29%) $236,905,717 | $13,405,357 (-25.2% / -38.9%) $256,438,326
Mon | $14,841,083 (-20.7% / +3.4%) $270,489,794 | $23,408,002 (-5.5% / +103.3%) $260,313,719 | $5,767,268 (-57% / -79.2%) $262,205,594

At its current pace it will get to $300m in 17 days, beating Shrek 2's record (18 days)

Here is what I think it will do this week. I see Sith crossing the $300 million mark on Saturday its 17th day of release
which would beat the previous record by a day.

5/31 -- $5.34m (-64%) - $275.83m
6/01 -- $4.80m (-10%) - $280.63m
6/02 -- $4.91m (+1.8%) - $285.54m
6/03 -- $7.70m (+57%) - $293.24m
6/04 - $12.70m (+65%) - $305.94m
6/05 -- $8.89m (-30%) - $314.81m

Yep, that's the minimum of what I see happening this week.

It should also pass Attack of the Clones this weekend both its orignial gross and original + IMAX gross.

Your math is off. A 74% drop today would give it $3.86m. I think it will have a smaller drop than AotC did, though, because more people are out of school.

Yeah you are right I did 64% instead of 74% but think a 64% drop might be realistic.

These are good numbers. I predicted $70m for the 4day. Not far off the mark. Still (barely) on pace for $400-$420m

Yeah I think a range of $380-$405m is in order.

In 2002 AOTC had nothing but The Sum of all Fears, and Undercover Brother. I don't really see the competition as being weaker this time around.

Sum of All Fears was a more direct competitor then anything Sith will face this weekend.

The Sum of All Fears (along with Spider-Man still going strong) was a lot more competition than Lords of Dogtown, Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants, and Cinderella Man. Very different audiences except Dogtown, which isn't that big anyways.