MAD can go one of two ways, it can drop like a stone, which I don't think it will, or it can have small drops fro here on out and make about 175 mill. That is how I think it will happen. I think it will fall about 40% next weekend and it will probably finish number two again.

Well looks like I nailed this film now the Q is, can this film make it to 200m. I think it can do to the lack of competition it will recive over the next month or two. Shark boy and lava girl looks like it will open in the 35m-45m range if the conditions are right when it opens, but that is not nearly anough money to hinder the legs of this film especialy in the summer. Also even with Mixed WOM CGI films are still able to get a multiplyer in the 3.5 to 4.0 range out side of the summer. With summer wkdays and mild holds this film will easily get a 4.0 multiplyer that would put it in the 180m-200m range.

I expect a finish in the 210m-220m range with some outstanding legs

BJs estimated multiplyer:

4.0-4.5

I think a range of 160-175 is more in order.

Nice total for Madagascar, just goes to show how desperate people are for a family film.

Personally I thought the film was terrible and almost as bad as Shark Tale. When will there be a good CGI film again?

Even though the trailer wasn't very impressive, I still trust Pixar to deliver with Cars next year. As for this year, it's fine with me to not have a good CGI film quality-wise because that will clear the way for Miyazaki to capture his second oscar with Howl's Moving Castle.

I estimate it to finish around $170m to $200m. Madagascar's 3-day estimate is actually lower then Shark Tale's 3-day opening. The only reason I have Madagascar beating Shark Tale is because its going to be playing in the summer time meaning higher weekday numbers. Though if it's declines are heavier it might not beat Shark Tale.

It has the post holiday weekend to face though, which will mean it could very easily drop 50%+, which Shark Tale did not.

Also competition for its audience will be more difficult as several new family films are opening in the next few weeks.

the only true thread this film will face in the comming wks is The Adventures of Shark boy and Lava Girl, and that will have a very small affect on this films legs. I think this film is home free untill Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is released

if a CGI film will bad WOM can easily score a 3.5 multiplyer outside of summer with just as much if not more competition than why cant a summer CGI film with killer wk days get a 4.0 or better in the summer :???:

I agree with BJ, this film will reach 190m-200m, it might even cross the 200m mark. Really, 165m is a minimum, and even that I would regard as nearly impossible. New competition in the coming weeks isn't great, and it will have good legs through June with increasingly strong weekdays. I think people are underestimating out of their dislike of the film the same reason Shark Tale's legs were greatly underestimated.

BTW, I think it has the best chance of taking the top spot next weekend.

Six points for Madagascar...........

I think you might be right here.

I'm thinking it's going to have astounding legs as well... There's virtually no big competition until Charlie and the Chocolate Factory:

Shark Boy & Lava Girl - its biggest threat, but only has small kid appeal
The Perfect Man - only will take teen girl audience
Herbie: Fully Loaded - not sure on this one yet

I think Madagascar can reach $225 million.

I am disappointed in this movie. Yes, this will do $200M. But the potential was there to easily go over $300M and a few months prior to release I had expected this to cross $350M. This is a huge hit for DW without any doubt.

The brilliance shown with King Julian/other Lemurs and the penguins is lacking with the main characters. I still look at this as a lost opportunity by DW.

I agree, that this could have been huge, not 300m but 250m atleast. The main characters weren't soo well done, unlike the side ones.

That is the most maddening part about it.

Does anyone think it will get to 200 mill?

It might inch past $200 million. It had a much better drop than I expected this past weekend, and its drop will just get better and better. This could drop 30-35% this weekend. It'll definitely hit $175 million now, though.

Should get to at least $175 million and could possibly creep past $200 million. Strong international numbers will mean this film will make a profit before it hits the DVD market.

Shame, since it really wasn't that great.

yeah finally saw it today and it's by far the weakest out of all animated movies. even sharkslayer was better.

it'll make $200 mill.

It looks like it does have a decent shot at 200 mill. That is much better than I expected.

Nah you dont give yourself enough credit. In your original post you predict 185-200 which was pretty on the mark.

I never really expected this to do $300 million, simply because the trailer wasn't very good at all. Like Robots and Shark Tale, the trailer was incredibly unfunny. And, the marketing was bad, too. The only advantage it had was Memorial Day weekend, which will now push it past $200 million if it continues to have good drops.

EVen with an average 30%-35% drop its dailys will be so outstanding that it will get 200m easily

Maybe subconsciosly, I was thinking 150 mill... :razz: