I think it'll get it. Should make around $16.5 million on Friday.

Day | ---------- Revenge of the Sith ---------- | --------------------- Shrek 2 --------------------- | ------------------ Spider-Man 2 ------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed | --------------------------------------------- | $11,786,415 (- / -) $11,786,415 | $40,442,604 (- / -) $40,442,604
Thu | $50,013,859 (- / -) $50,013,859 | $9,158,767 (-22.3% / -) $20,945,182 | $23,812,920 (-41.1% / -) $64,255,524
Fri | $33,529,613 (-33% / -) $83,543,472 | $28,340,295 (+209.4% / -) $49,285,477 | $32,452,342 (+36.3% / -) $96,707,866
Sat | $40,693,760 (+21.4% / -) $124,237,232 | $44,797,042 (+58.1% / -) $94,082,519 | $33,748,257 (+4% / -) $130,456,123
Sun | $34,212,468 (-15.9% / -) $158,449,700 | $34,900,541 (-22.1% / -) $128,983,060 | $21,955,628 (-34.9% / -) $152,411,751
Mon | $14,352,807 (-58% / -) $172,802,507 | $11,512,320 (-67% / -) $140,495,380 | $27,661,137 (+26% / -) $180,072,888
Tue | $9,907,771 (-31% / -) $182,710,278 | $8,023,299 (-30.3% / -) $148,518,679 | $12,012,472 (-56.6% / -) $192,085,360
Wed | $8,652,951 (-12.7% / -) $191,363,169 | $8,003,467 (-0.2% / -32.1%) $156,522,146 | $10,034,713 (-16.5% / -75.2%) $202,120,073
Thu | $9,079,570 (+4.9% / -81.8%) $200,442,739 | $8,213,208 (+2.6% / -10.3%) $164,735,354 | $9,137,510 (-8.9% / -61.6%) $211,257,583

BJ and his high expectations are expecting an increase in the 95%-115% range today

BJ's expectations are too high

and why would that be :???: AOTC increased 98%

The weekday numbers for all the films in release were so much weaker that week.

Well, I'd say it's pretty clear now that RotS will not beat TPM, and will beat Jurassic Park. That's still a fairly wide range, of course, but the extreme predictions in both directions have been proven wrong.

I'd say that it depends on the Saturday increase (I expect about 25%-35% with the strong weekdays and therefore strong Friday matinees). But with that it would have above 50m this 3 day weekend. With a 60%-63% third week drop I'd give it a multiplier over 4 from that point on for about 360m-370m. It's a bit weaker then my most optimistic projection, but certainly stronger then my general expectations. Well, nice for the film. We will have to see if anything else can beat it this year.

In any case, the 470m club's days are nearing an end. :wink:

Lol, yet another film in the $370m, sheesh.

But, you know, I think the film is holding up quite well. I wouldn't be surprised with "just" a 53-56% drop third weekend.

There is nothing to indicate that it will not beat Menace. You can't judge it on it's first 10 days of release. Legs play a big part in the summer and I think this one will have sexy legs for the summer.

It dropped more then AOTC, and it will need better legs then that film to reach TPM.

Although next weekend's drop will certainly be larger than this weekend's, I don't think it'll be a really significant drop because AOTC didn't have to face so much opener competition.

Day | ---------- Revenge of the Sith ---------- | --------------------- Shrek 2 --------------------- | ------------------ Spider-Man 2 ------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed | --------------------------------------------- | $11,786,415 (- / -) $11,786,415 | $40,442,604 (- / -) $40,442,604
Thu | $50,013,859 (- / -) $50,013,859 | $9,158,767 (-22.3% / -) $20,945,182 | $23,812,920 (-41.1% / -) $64,255,524
Fri | $33,529,613 (-33% / -) $83,543,472 | $28,340,295 (+209.4% / -) $49,285,477 | $32,452,342 (+36.3% / -) $96,707,866
Sat | $40,693,760 (+21.4% / -) $124,237,232 | $44,797,042 (+58.1% / -) $94,082,519 | $33,748,257 (+4% / -) $130,456,123
Sun | $34,212,468 (-15.9% / -) $158,449,700 | $34,900,541 (-22.1% / -) $128,983,060 | $21,955,628 (-34.9% / -) $152,411,751
Mon | $14,352,807 (-58% / -) $172,802,507 | $11,512,320 (-67% / -) $140,495,380 | $27,661,137 (+26% / -) $180,072,888
Tue | $9,907,771 (-31% / -) $182,710,278 | $8,023,299 (-30.3% / -) $148,518,679 | $12,012,472 (-56.6% / -) $192,085,360
Wed | $8,652,951 (-12.7% / -) $191,363,169 | $8,003,467 (-0.2% / -32.1%) $156,522,146 | $10,034,713 (-16.5% / -75.2%) $202,120,073
Thu | $9,079,570 (+4.9% / -81.8%) $200,442,739 | $8,213,208 (+2.6% / -10.3%) $164,735,354 | $9,137,510 (-8.9% / -61.6%) $211,257,583
Fri | $15,470,000 (+70.4% / -53.9%) $215,913,000 | $20,155,038 (+145.4% / -28.9%) $184,890,392 | $13,858,762 (+51.7% / -57.3%) $225,116,345

EDITED: I was wrong. Nothing to see here.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

so if it makes about 75 million this weekend, then about 45-50 million next weekend, then another 30, then 20, then 15, 10, then about 5 for the next few weeks or so, that would be about 280+ 50 + 30 + 20 + 10 + another 15, then lets add the weekdays, about 4 times 5, then 4 times 3, then 4 times 2, then about 24 times 2, we get another 20 + 12 + 8 + 48....thats 280 + 50 + 30 + 20 + 10 + 15 + 20 + 12 + 8 + 48, which gives me 330 + 95 + about 70, which gives me 425 + 70, which gives me 495 million.

These are my calculations. It will be tough to cross that 500 million, because i was generous with my calculations. Damn, i just hope it makes it. 500 is a better number than anything with a 4 at the beginning.

I'm expecting about $67 mil (4-day) $53 mil (3-day) this weekend and $26 mil next weekend, which might even be lower if it drops more than 50%. I see this getting 'only' $381 mil right now.

You think it can drop only about 51% considering AOTC dropped 56% in 2002? Personally I'm thinking low 20s next week and a total of about 368m.

Yes we know that the less it makes the better you will feel

Oh come on, I've never said anything against this movie, in fact I liked it quite a bit. I've merely been predicting that it would be frontloaded, and I did go at least a bit too low.

I did predict 129m for The Matrix Revolutions during opening weekend, and I'm such a fanboy I saw that movie 8 times. I went a bit too far with the frontloading on that one and in this case as well, but it's not related to me liking/disliking them.

The 2.67 multiplier I was predicting would not even have been that low for this movie in this frontloaded age. The fact that it will be higher is even better. The multipliers around 4 that many were predicting were entirely unrealistic.

I have yet to accuse any SW fans of predicting high numbers because they like the film. That is regardless of whether it might be the case.

Is there something wrong with predicting it to drop as much or a bit more then AOTC did? After all, it has dropped more then AOTC this weekend. It's been able to reach more of its audience so far with 9,400 screens which logically means more frontloading.

We should expect a $56 million dollar 2nd weekend - $72 million 4 day....

Unfortunately. I want more money, dammit!

Day | ---------- Revenge of the Sith ---------- | --------------------- Shrek 2 --------------------- | ------------------ Spider-Man 2 ------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed | --------------------------------------------- | $11,786,415 (- / -) $11,786,415 | $40,442,604 (- / -) $40,442,604
Thu | $50,013,859 (- / -) $50,013,859 | $9,158,767 (-22.3% / -) $20,945,182 | $23,812,920 (-41.1% / -) $64,255,524
Fri | $33,529,613 (-33% / -) $83,543,472 | $28,340,295 (+209.4% / -) $49,285,477 | $32,452,342 (+36.3% / -) $96,707,866
Sat | $40,693,760 (+21.4% / -) $124,237,232 | $44,797,042 (+58.1% / -) $94,082,519 | $33,748,257 (+4% / -) $130,456,123
Sun | $34,212,468 (-15.9% / -) $158,449,700 | $34,900,541 (-22.1% / -) $128,983,060 | $21,955,628 (-34.9% / -) $152,411,751
Mon | $14,352,807 (-58% / -) $172,802,507 | $11,512,320 (-67% / -) $140,495,380 | $27,661,137 (+26% / -) $180,072,888
Tue | $9,907,771 (-31% / -) $182,710,278 | $8,023,299 (-30.3% / -) $148,518,679 | $12,012,472 (-56.6% / -) $192,085,360
Wed | $8,652,951 (-12.7% / -) $191,363,169 | $8,003,467 (-0.2% / -32.1%) $156,522,146 | $10,034,713 (-16.5% / -75.2%) $202,120,073
Thu | $9,079,570 (+4.9% / -81.8%) $200,442,739 | $8,213,208 (+2.6% / -10.3%) $164,735,354 | $9,137,510 (-8.9% / -61.6%) $211,257,583
Fri | $15,470,000 (+70.4% / -53.9%) $215,913,000 | $20,155,038 (+145.4% / -28.9%) $184,890,392 | $13,858,762 (+51.7% / -57.3%) $225,116,345
Sat | $20,820,000 (+34.6% / -48.8%) $236,733,000 | $27,235,110 (+35.1% / -39.2%) $212,125,502 | $17,916,624 (+29.3% / -46.9%) $243,032,969