Figured a few people here will either see Cinderella Man on Sunday or some time early next week during advance screenings.

I'm very excited about Cinderella Man. Ron Howard has a great Oscar track record with films based on real events (Apollo 13, A Beautiful Mind) so I don't see how Cinderella Man will be any different.

Unseen, I think Cinderella Man is in contention for the following nominations.

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Score

I think Renée will be the odd man man out. But, she has managed back to back to back nominations in the past so I can't completely rule her out. The AMPAS LOVES her. (Bridget Jones, Chicago, Cold Mountain).

Any movie titled 'Cinderella Man' doesn't deserve an oscar. Really ...

Yeah, I don't know. Good or no good, I think because Howard has had so much success in the past, the Acadamy isn't going to give him too much. He got alot of love for Beautiful Mind, and Crowe is on back-to-back Oscar wins already. One with Howard. And only a few years ago. Do you think they're ready to reward the same combo (director/actor) even if its good?

I'll give you score and cinematography, editting. I don't know about the other ones yet though.

It's a better title than that other boxing film.

Hurricane was a good title.

Howard has won for A Beautiful Mind but he wasn't even nominated for Apollo 13, which was a horrible snub. Crowe did have three nominations in a row, but only one win. He was also passed over for his performance in Master And Commander (rightfully so, I think. Good performance, but not great.).

Having said that, I think this will be this year's Road To Perdition and Collateral which both got several technical noms. and a nomination for supporting actor. I think Paul Giametti has the best chance of getting nominated because he's missed out in the last two years. Crowe could get nominated too. I think Howard and Renee Zellweger will miss out . It's obvious Oscar loves Zellweger and they also love the long-suffering wife role, so those two things could help her. I would bet on a Golden Globe nomination for her because they love her even more than Oscar.

Anyway, we'll see......

So true. That's the surest bet, when they could nominate her for The Edge of Reason.

Overall, I agree with your analysis a lot.

No second boxing movie this year.

Stranger things have happened. Remember the year 3 WWII movies (Saving Pvt. Ryan, the Thin Red Line, Life Is Beautiful) and 2 movies about Queen Elizabeth ( Shakespeare In Love and Elizabeth) were all nominated for best picture?

That makes no sense since the AMPAS has nominated multiple WWII films in the past. Not to mention M$B and Cinderella Man are vastly different.

Apples and oranges really.

NO SECOND BOXING MOVIE THIS YEAR!

RAWR?

Bwahahahaha!

Guys, there's a difference between *War* and *Boxing.* Most likely Academy, Globes, etc, wouldn't turn down a holocaust movie even if it was mediocre at best (because, you know, they're compassionate, worldly people). Case-in-point....The Pianist.

Howard just got one.
Renee just got one.
Boxing just got one.

Crowe and Giamatti = the best chances.

This year's Oscars are completely unhinged, there is NOTHING that I see as a potential frontrunner, except Spielberg's not-really-called-Vengence-but-it's-a-good-title-so-i-will-call-it-that.

Just. As if A Beautiful Mind's Oscar win was yesterday.

There's no "real" reason Cinderella Man can't be considered for the Oscar race.

As for last year, Million Dollar Baby is more Old Yeller than it is Rocky. You couldn't find a pair of more dissimilar boxing films if you placed Cinderella Man on Mars.

If you distill the history of the Academy Awards on a timeline, and look at the distance between March 2002 and June 2005 I would say, yes, Howard "just" got one.


Not yet. It does have a pedigree, I've never doubted that. It's in every god-damned commercial for this thing. I do think this movie is going to rub a lot of people the wrong way, critically. The reviews are very sappy, even the positive ones, so at best (to me, at this very moment) this looks like the *fith nominee like Ray and Seabiscuit that is shitty but people might like it so we'll nominate it*. Not exactly Oscar gold, but if it does what it needs to. But we'll see, that's just a hunch. Expect 65% on RT.

I also know that Universal also could play The Interpreter (maybe), and they also could play Jarhead, which has a great pedigree, then everyone is intent on The Producers getting recognition, AND SPIELBERGS project is Universal AND King Kong.

So no, I don't think there is room in the oven at this very moment for a June release movie.

You wanted your reason, there it is.


It didn't stop people from lumping Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line together.

But yes... one of the following will be nominated...

The Intepreter
Cinderella Man
Jarhead
The Producers
"Vengence"

and flying out there gobbling up techs is the unknown of King Kong.

Is Cinderella Man the strongest horse in that line up? It's one thing when Ray and Seabiscuit are ALL it has going for it. But Universal of 2005 is like the Pheonix. Does it have what it takes to beat a musical, a modern day war film and a project that Spielberg has been passionately talking about for years?

I don't think so at this point, and nobody has convinced me of the box office love or potential critical fawning of this film.... yet.

We'll see in two weeks.

Incidentally, I really want to see this Sunday but nobody will go with me.

And to head this off at the bend, I will not write off War of the Worlds and King Kong as contendors yet (Star Wars is killed by scriptwriting and acting) the past season, with no real hits, and movies that most of the audience couldn't get behind (besides Ray *kind of*), and a really underperforming winner has me believing that there will be some sort of commercial back-lash this year, and one of the big heavy but decent sci-fi/fantasy/animated films still has a little, tiny, chance of a shot.

Especially when those films are helmed by Spielberg and Jackson.

I can't believe you mentioned The Producers. :wink:

You should go by yourself if needed. At least with Cinderella Man, you know for the most part what you're getting. Most films lie through their teeth via ads to get people in.

I know... but Universal has their hands in a lot of pots this year, and that can lead to trouble!

I can't go to movies by myself. Otherwise I will just wait for DVD :???:

Can't? Can't? There is no can't.

Though there are a few select critics raving about it, some important ones even...I expect to the movie to be just well reviewed in the end, not great.

I can at best see this movie following the path of Road to Perdition.

This movie wont get nominated for anything.

That may be pushing it a little.

Anda, you really should go tomorrow night. I won't have anyone to talk to here about Cinderella Man.

Actually my sister called me up and like...

"Fuck work, I'm not hosting a meeting at 6pm on the Sunday before Memorial Day"

So I will be going to see it tomorrow night.

Oh and I can easily see a costumes nod for this sucker.