thanks!

So who are your new picks? And Blanchett and Winslett could possibly go lead. I agree that Blanchett is amazing!

Annette Bening (Being Julia)
Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
Uma Thurman (Kill Bill Vol. 2)
Scarlett Johansson (A Love Song For Bobby Long)
Catalina Sandiro Moreno (Maria Full of Grace) - Her performance was better than Bernal's in Motorcycle Diaries. I think one of the performances from either of these movies will get a nominee.

Roberts won't get nothin'.

At the moment, I completely agree.

Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the spotless Mind)
Julia Roberts (Closer)
Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
Audrey Tatou - A Very Long Engagement
Uma Thurman (Kill Bill Vol. 2)

I really hope Uma will get it, but it is unlikely.

Here's what I'm thinking today:

1. Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
2. Annette Baning - Being Julia

Nothing is certain, but I think these two ladies have the best shot at this point, at least for nominations.

3. Emmy Rossum - If Phantom Of The Opera really ends up being a best pic. contender, she's in. She's been very visible in supporting roles in Mystic River and The Day After Tomorrow. I'm thinking this is going to happen.

4. Kate Winslett - For Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless - anyone know if she's being campaigned for lead or supporting in Finding Neverland?

5. Cate Blanchett - The Aviator - I actually think she has a better chance in this category than supporting which looks like a tight race with some good performances (Linney, Portman, Madsen).

Julia Roberts is going to miss out, I think. Her character sounds too cold for Oscar love. Reviews for Audrey Tautou have been mixed. Uma Thurman won't get the benefit of a strong Miramax campaign like Blanchett.

Spoilers: Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby), Sigourney Weaver (Imaginary Heroes - I thought she looked very strong in the trailer), Scarlett Johansen (can't remember the movie's name), Laura Dern (We Don't Live Here Anymore). Anything could happen, even a nom. for Tea Leoni!

I agree with Todd.

Julia Roberts might get a nom, but she won't get her second oscar that fast.

Uma Thurman had an amazing performance, but she has already been snubbed last year.

Emily Rossum might pull off a great performance, but I don't see a young newcomer actress getting it.

Basically it'll be down to Kate Winslet who'll get extra buzz from Finding Neverland, Annette Benning and Imelda Staunton. Imelda Staunton probably has had the best performance out of the three, but many people felt that Benning was snubbed for American Beauty, so she might pull off a win.

I disagree, in recent years there has been a big disconnect between Best Picture and acting awards. Based on the buzz, if anybody ends up with an actress award nomination it's going to be Minnie Driver in supporting.

Current Predictions
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Julia Roberts, Closer
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

You know, I really don't think anything is a lock in this category, and the field is all wide open after Imelda Staunton.

Annette Benning: You know, the film really isn't going anywhere. It's going a bit wider now, but not too much and her buzz has really died down. Though she is still on many predictors' lists, her chances are getting smaller and smaller and smaller.

Uma thurman: She should win the Oscar in my opinion, but just like the movie itself, I'm really not feeling the academy on this one. But don't count it out.

Cate Blanchet: for the Aviator???? This will go straight to supporting and probably win it. Not only is she waaay overdue, but now she's in the oscar-frunt-running film and playing a legend who just died in the past year, or year and a half. The only one who poses serious threat to the actual oscar is....

Kate Winslet: for Finding Neverland. She won't get lead actress and she won't get a nod for Eternal Sunshine. It just won't happen. It seems like some people are inventing buzz for that film and it's way too unrealistic. People will remember her in Sunshine, but will acknowledge it with a Supp. nod for Finding Neverland, and she should be second in line to win.

Julia Roberts: I don't see this as too strong of a role, mainly cuz it's an ensemble piece and the supporting actors will take away more buzz. If the race gets tight, I don't see her getting in there. However, if she really surprises again and turns in a great performance, with her star shining brightest since her 2000/2001 win, I think her chances are better than many others.

Catalina Sandiro Moreno: I never thought she would get the nod. I mean her buzz has really died down since early September. However, the more I think of it, the more I am willing to believe she will be the Keisha Castle Hughes this year! I'm not fully prepared to put her in my predictions, but I am seeing how she can be nominated: a surprise nod just as Keisha's was.

Audrey Tatou: She could also come from behind but only if the movie is really well recieved by both audiences and critics (critics are almost a lock) and if the film itself gets ALOT of Oscar buzz and help from the Globes and critics' lists. I really don't see it, but you can't ignore it. By the way, she wasn't nominated for Amelie and that was her breakout role!

Emily Rossum: I don't know, she's pretty young and it doesn't seem that she's quite there yet by the look of her face, acting wise. I may be juding her too quickly (and by face I mean her split second scenes in the Phantom trailer). I think she could only get in if The Phantom becomes another Chicago band-wagon, which I doubt.

Many people are forgetting Hillary Swank in Clint astwood's rushed before the year ends 'Million Dollar Baby', though it's too early to tell what that film holds for Oscar.
There's still Nicole Kidman in "Dogville" and "Birth" but I think both were too controversial and too small to get her anywhere really, though she did give her best performance yet in Dogville.


You know, with the public strongly behind Uma Thurman and critics' lists undoubtedly mentioning KB2, I'm thinking it would be a great and possible surprise if she got in there!! I really am thinking now that she has a shot!


So, with the field wide open, anything could happen. Even all the ones I listed that aren't stroong enough or this or that might all get the nods cuz they are essentially all the runners in the race!!

this looks about perfect to me:up: 8)

Current Predictions:

Imelda Staunton- Vera Drake
Kate Winslet- Eternal Sunshine of the spitless Mind
Catalina Sandino Moreno- Maria Full of Grace
Julie Deply- Before Sunset
Julia Roberts- Closer

Other Contenders: Annette Bening- Being Julia, Uma Thurman- Kill Bill vol. 2, Laura Dern- We Don't Live Here Anymore (though it's unlikely both her and Julia Roberts will be nominated), Nicole Kidman- Dogville (it's too good to be ignored EVERYWHERE), Scarlet Johansson- Love Song for Bobby Long (if the movie's good and even somewhat award worthy she'll probably be in), Hillary Swank- Million Dollar Baby.

I don't think Rossum will win, but she could easily get a nomination if Phantom is nominated for best pic.

As far as a big disconnect between best pic and acting awards, that's somewhat true, but not for acting nominations:

'04 - Return Of The King - No noms., no wins
'03 - Chicago - 4 acting noms, 1 win
'02 - A Beautiful Mind - 2 noms, 1 win
'01 - Gladiator - 2 noms, 1 win
'00 - American Beauty - 2 noms, 1 win
'99 - Shakespeare In Love - 3 noms, 2 wins

These are for the winning picture of course, but even a best pic nominee can raise the performers visibility.

My current predictions:

Best Actress
Julia Roberts-Closer
Imelda Staunton-Vera Drake
Audrey Tautou-A Very Long Engagement
Kate Winslet-Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Annette Benning-Being Julia

Alt: Emmy Rossum (The Phantom of the Opera)

My predictions change every two or three days. Currently:

1. Annette Bening - Being Julia
2. Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
3. Kate Winslett - Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
4. Julia Roberts - Closer (I'm finally joining the Julia bandwagon)
and now...

5. Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby

Will she face Annette Bening again in a repeat of '99?

Is it possible Imelda Staunton might miss out on a nod?

This race is so unpredictable. I hope the NBR gives us a clear candidate and I hope it's Kate Winslett or Annette Bening.

Yes.

My predictions too change every couple of days. Every year there's someone that loks like a sure thing, gets tons of attention from critics but then misses out. Imelda Staunton looks like a very possible candidate this year with her movie doing less than $2 million at the box office.

My updated predictions:

I will not predict Scarlet for now, until I know if the movie is even Oscar material, but if its somewhat worthy, she'll be in.

Annette Bening- Being Julia (or it could be her that misses out. it's a very small film as well.
Julia Roberts- Closer (if the film does end up being embrced by the academy)
Uma Thurman- Kill Bill vol. 2
Kate Winslet- Eternal Sunshine
Catalina Sandino Moreno- Maria Full of Grace OR Julie Deply- BEfore Sunset (I strongly believe one of them will be nominated)

Alternate: Hilary Swank- Million Dollar Baby

....

I'm taking changing your mind really often to a whole new level

After some of the early reviews, I'm now predicting a nomination for Hilary Swank as one of this year's surest things. (And I'm also putting the movie into the top 5 in best picture)

Morgan Freeman for best supporting actor, Eastwood for lead (that category jsut keep getting more crowded every day!)

Rod, I almost completely agree with your predictions, or actually your train of thought, except Kate Winslett. I don't know what it is about you fans, but you have to let Eternal Sunshine go! It's not happening, lol!
Trust me, some people know how fanatic I am about Kill Bill, it was my whole life half this year... but I know it's gonna happen.

Eternal Sunshine could get nods for screenplay probably and slim chances, very slim for Jim Carrey. But Best Picture and Actress are not gonna happen...

The way I see it now...

1. Imelda Staunton (I do think she will get in, knowcking Benning out, unless a bit fo a wider release gets Julia ore buzz)

2. Julia Roberts: The film is starting to become a bandwagon for acting nods and with critics highly praising it and Roeper saying specifically about Julia that she's better than she was in Erin B. she has a great chance... plus she's always in the news cuz of her baby and Ocean's 12....

3. Hillary Swank: this movie si gonna come and create a strom.... I ahve a feeling it's gonna be another Mystic River, but if it gets a Best Pic nod, I'm guessing this will be the movie to miss out on the director nod for obvious reasons.

4. Catalina Sandino Moreno- Maria Full of Grace OR
Julie Deply- BEfore Sunset : While Julie Delpy deserves it just as much as Imelda and Uma ad more than everyone else, she is wishful thinking on my part... I think if the academy is anything like last year, will nominate Catalina Moreno

5. Uma Thurman: This can most possibly not happen and is my dream Oscar wish this year, but she is just SOOOO good and it might be the academys way of rewarding the film because it will be mroe prestigous than Carradine's nod for Supporting Actor.... I HOPE this one gets in....

Other possibilities....

6. Annette Benning: The film is so small and not really well recieved. Her performance got raves but her buzz is REALLY dying down.

7. Emmy Rossum: If Phantom comes to be the bandwagon that Chicago was, she could actually get in... probably in place of Uma

8. Audrey Tautou: This is a waay long shot, but not an impossibility. They are really trying to market and advertise this film hard-on (don't even go there ) and they can give this to her to compensate for Amelie!


You now, for the really unpredictability factor for this category, I can almost safely say the women mentioned in my post are really the ones in the competition and I don't really see anyone else getting in....

Why do you think Jim Carrey has a better chance than Kate Winslet (she already has 3 noms to her name compared to...none for Carey despite some deserving performances...not to mention that the best actor category is ultra-crowded. 5 months ago I would have said Jim had a chance, but with the kind of competition in the mix right now...Gael, Javier, Liam, Jamie, Clint, Kevin, Johnny, Leo...I just have a hard time seeing him even stand a chance.)

I can see why you would think the movie itself doesn't have a chance (I disagree though) but not why you think Kate Winslet doesn't have a chance.

She's the best thing about the movie, BTW (Isn't she always?)

I also don't care about Kill Bill vol 2. as I have not seen it (I need to before the year is over) so there is no bias in my prediction. I think Uma will have a good chance.

And I disagree with your "if the academy is anything like last year" comment on Catalina. The academy rarely goes for those more subtle, true-to-life performance. They like more showy performances, and they did that last year (no Scarlet?). Maybe with the exception of Keisha Castle Hughes.

I just noticed when I wrote about Kill Bill, I wrote I know it's gonna happen.... I was gonna say I know it WON'T happen, loll.

Well, Rod... I see more and more where you're coming from. I, too, don't see a chance for Jim Carrey now that the race is really tightening up.
I guess I shrugged off Kate Winslet too soon.... I guess I can still consider her, but it won't change the fact that I highly doubt she will get in on a nomination.
The mian reason is Finding Neverland.... she will probably score a supporting nod for that and that will totally undermine her chances for a best actress nod. And I think if the Academy wants to reward the movie itself, it will do so with some other awards and most notably Best Screenplay.
See, if it was something like Kill Bill, where Uma is basically THE movie, it would make sense nominating her as a reward for the film. But Sunshine isn't that character-based, it wouldn't seem likely that they nominate Winslet for the movie itself, that's why I wouldn't bring that up....

Then again, you never know what the academy will do. If they will go out and nominate someone from a film like that it would more likely be Julie Delpy who with Uma ruled the Best Actress this year!

I really don't know. Now that I look and see there are really only 9 main players in the Best Actress race, I guess I should open up a chance.... maybe I am being too close minded about Eternal Sunshine.... it's just that it really strikes me as the type the Academy rarely or maybe occasionally likes, but the release date and the fact that it didn't really break out at the box office either really puts it back. I mean, I really don't understand where you guys are coming from discussing a Best pic nod. But, I sorta see the Best Actress thinking. We'll just have to see...
I can't imagine how I'll feel if Eternal Sunshine does get nominated!

Why Best Pic is a possibility:

It is one of the year's best reviewed movies, second best behind Sideways you could say.

Adaptation came close (well not like REALLY close but..) to getting a nomination 2 years ago. It was a contender that did really well with the Globes and then went on to do well in the acting categories at the Oscars. Most agree that Eternal Sunshune is a better movie, and also at least a bit more Academy-friendly. Take into consideration the fact that this is probably a weaker year than 2002 unless Hotel Rwanda, Million Dollar Baby, and Spanglish ALL turn out to be huge Oscar contenders (and that maybe it's time to reward Kaufman after so many good movies) and you can see why you would go from Adaptation being probably in the top 8 or so vote-getters to the top 5 from Eternal Sunshine. That it's a love story doesn't hurt.

Plus, Focus has been a huge player in the race the past few years and this is their only film (It's not gonna happen for Diaries) so if they're smart they'll give it a good push.

Well, first let's start with Adaptation....
Even though Eternal Sunshine has gotten a handful of better reviews than Adaptation (I think, I'm not sure), I, myself, highly doubt and don't think that it is more Academy-friendly than Adaptation.
Second, compare their box-office....
Adaptation opened with a $54,000+ PTA while Eternal Sunshine opened wide in around 1300 theatres and managed $6,000+ PTA
Sure, Eternal Sunshine made more but at its highest theatre count it was almost exactly twice of Adaptations highest ever theatre count.... and it made $10 million less than Adaptations doubled gross. There are more factors at play, so I won't really use this as a strong argument, but also...
Adaptation was almost just as well recieved by critics and maybe even more by audiences and it had a huge push cuz it came out on the eve of the Oscar race....
So compare that to Eternal Sunshine (if say they stood the same ground as possibility for Oscar, which I myself don't think so) Adaptation still would be favored cuz Eternal Sunshine was released WAAAY early in the year.
My point is.... if Adaptation had all that buzz and support and missed out on a nomination, there is just NO WAY Eternal sunshine will get in.

Then....
2002 was comparably a very weak year.... we have a more tangible frunt-runner in this race at the same time that year.... Chicago was almost exactly where Phantom was in buzz... many people said it was great, some from Summer screenings said it was bad and it wasn't until early January when it started picking up steam. Before then Gangs was the frunt-runner, which lasted a but longer than Alexander this year. But that opened to lukeward box-ffoce and mixed audience/critic reaction....
Out of the nominated films, The Hours was by far the best, but that was never a frunt-runner.
This year we have Aviator, deny or not! It WILL get a nomination and is poised at this point to win with Best Picture/Director/Supp Actress/Score (probably) and a couple of techies maybe (this is all in my opinion)

then we have Closer with RAVE reviews and equally raved Kinsey (which I, myself, for some reason don't believe in) and then Hotel Rwanda and Million Dollar Baby, starting to gain alot of buzz. You still have Phantom in the mix and though out my top 5 predictions, u just can't count out the Passion....
And even after that some others are crying for Mar Edentro and Neverland is up there. Ray is showing some legs in the race, but moreso in the actor. Sideways still comes into play after all of this.... the best reviewed movie of the year! If a small quirky film will get in there, it WILL be Sideways way over Eternal Sunshine....

And I really think Eternal Sunshine fall behind Before Sunset and the Incredibles for 2nd best reviewed.

The one and ONLY reason I would even give Eternal Sunshine a moment of though in the Best Picture race is your before-mentioned 'Focus slot' But since Vanity Fair came and quickly faded and then Motorcycle Diaries came and is now on the downward fade.... I don't see Eternal Sunshine overcoming from behind and snagging a nod or even a top 10 position. I am sorry, I just don't!

Well let's not forget that Adaptation did so well in par BECAUSE of all the award attention it got (6 Golden Globes nominations, which I don't think ES can match, best actress, best acotr, screenplay, picture yes. it would also have to get director and it'd still only be 5. it doesn't have supporting actors that are likely to be nominated which keeps it at a disadvantage).

So as far as box office I don't think you can compare them. You could also argue that ES is now out on DVD so more people have gotten a chance to see it.

I'm keeping it on my list, and might change my mind about it once awards start getting handed out, which won't have to be long, IFP's (elligible?) and NBR are in less than a week.

A NBR win (very possible) would skyrocket its chance with Oscar. Quills and Gods and Monsters missed out, but Quills didn't have the reviews ES has, not even close, and G&Ms, well, that one did miss out despite its win. Even a second place finish means a best picture nominations more than half of the times.

So I';ll wait on those as well as critics lists (I don't know why i have to wait for this one though, it WILL show up, big time.).

I know a lot of people were saying the same thing about Lost in tRanslation around this time last year, and LIT wasn't as "out there" as ES but it's still not the thing the academy usually goes for.



But at the very least I think you are way underestimating Kate Winslet. she'll be a big player in the race.

We'll see

That's all I can give for now :wink:

Hmmm... eight days later, it's almost assured out of the race.... guess I'm halfway right (the other half is Winslet not getting nominated, though I'd like to see it)

The race is starting to take shape now... I don't think I have time to give my full analysis but here is where I think the race is going...

Top contenders...

1. Hillary Swank: quickly gaining monumental buzz and shaping up to be this year's acting ensemble epic with 2 clear leads and a great supporting actor rather than CLOSER, split almost equally between 4 great actors.

2. Imelda staunton: Her buzz is dying down and after holding on for so long, I'm ready to have her slip if it continues this way. She desperately needs a boost and critics' lists and award might do it. She is just so good that if her name still stays in voters' minds, she'll be in.... but if her buzz keeps heading downward, she could just slightly miss out. For now, she's still on this list.

3. Annette Benning: I thought she was dead until National board of Review rejuvinated her. I think there is going to be a show-down between Benning and Staunton and one of them might miss out on the nomination.

Next in Line...

4. Julia Roberts: her performance isn't as memorable as some critics are saying mainly because she does the least talking of the four and might have the least screen-time of the four. Nevertheless, she was awesome and the buzz is there!

5. Catalina Sandino Moreno: After summer, her buzz has never been on par with the other actresses in this race. She needs not just mentions now.... she needs wins to revive her chances. the only reason why I still keep her here is because she could be this year's Keisha Castle Hughes and plsu there have been alot of news circulating about the Academy not knowing what to do with their exclusions of so many great foreign films because of their rules... she could benefit from that, by them spreading the love ot foreign movies just as the trend has been showing the past two years...

6. Emmy Rossum: she did get the breakthrough actress from the NBR and she can truly sing; I believe she has been taking voice lesson since she was 7.... but can she act as good as she can sing? As silly as it sounds, I think her nod has alot to do with public reaction... if she is a worthy to be in the role so many people idealized Sarah Brightman in. If the audiences don't give her a chance, the Academy won't either. If the audiences loves her, you'll know the Academy will be thinking too!

In the distance....

7. Uma Thurman, Kill Bill

8. Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine

9. Julie Delpy, Before Sunset

10. Audrey Tautou, A Very Long Engagement

Well, I guess I did end up givign a sizable analysis.