I'm not saying that it will gross 180 mill, but as Darth Kosh said, those are including the midnight showings with Clones drops. I don't think 180 is possible, but it is not going to drop 40% tomorrow. I can see 20-25, but no matter how you look at it, it's huge.

Thank you xiayun! This is one of the many reasons why I nominated you for Best Box Office Predictor.

PEACE, Mike

I see something like this:

Thur: $50.00
Fri: $30.50 (-39%) *Read below for reason
Sat: $38.13 (+25%)
Sun: $29.74 (-22%)

3-Day: $98.4
4-Day: $148.4

Matrix Reloaded had about $8 million (?) for midnight showings. That would put it at $34 million for a normal Thursday. It would have dropped 10% Thursday to Friday then.

Star Wars Episode III would have $33.5 without midnight showings. A 10% drop from that is $30.2. That's a 40% drop from its Thursday opening.

I didn't expect the numbers to work out like that. When I put them in, I was actually surprised it supported my thoughts of a 35%+ drop. It is pointing torward that now.

You are still not getting it. YES, I realize that Clones' Thursday number has the midnight screenings in it, but they account for 16% of the Thursday gross, whilst ROTS midnight screenings count for 34% of it's Thursday gross. Big difference there, and thus the reason why you can't just simply take Clones' drops and apply them.

PEACE, Mike

You will prolly take alot of flack for predicting that high of a drop..........but I agree with you. I think it will have a rather sizable drop today. Rush out factor was massive for this.

i see a 30% drop on friday. i just can't see it falling almost 40%

Heh, don't mind MG. He's still in denial because he predicted a $280 million total. :razz:

:laugh:

Maybe... :wink: If it drops 65% next weekend, you all will bow to me then.

so who guessed right with the opening day?
what page is that chart thing on....

i'll be pointing and laughing when it drops not even close to that much

don';t even know if the chart was made.

But Scott V on the main site got it right.
I'm so proud of him .. bit kissie from me!!

Nah, it won't. That's the brilliance of this release date. Even The Matrix Reloaded, which was hated by soo many, dropped 60%. I see no way in hell that Episode III will drop anymore than that with the awesome WOM it has. It's Memorial Day weekend next weekend, so I don't see your 65% drop happening, and because of that, there will be no bowing down of any kind. :razz:

Unless, of course, you want to bow down to me...

Absolutely!!

Congratulations on a fantastic prediction, Scott V =D> =D>

BKB The Man $52
neostorm $51
deathawk $50
Scott Vasquez $50
BJ $48.07
bradley witherberry $48
Impact $47
loyalfromlondon $47
MG Casey $46.5
hans $46.2
Nebs $46
Mesjarch $45.6
Zingaling $45.6
Ragnarok $45.1
insomniacdude $45
scottb $45
KC $45
junio $45
xiayun $45
Dr. Lecter $44.5
Chris $44.1
RogueCommander $44
Flava'd‡ $44
Kali Ariel $44
Jeff 42 $44
DP07 $43.99
neo wolf $43.5
Raffiki $43.4
Positive Jon $43.1
MovieDude $43
Animosity Reigns $43
baumer72 $42.5
MikeQ. $42.5
nghtvsn $42.5
El_masked_esteROIDe_user $42
rolandka19 $42
matatonio $41.1
FILMO $41
revolutions $41
torrino $41
MadGez $41
~~~Archangel~~~ $41
alex young $41
ChipMunky $40
Nazgul9 $40
Jmorphin $40
Archie Gates $40
BOYFRESH $40
Ivan K $40
Amos $39.7
StarWars $39
Steve $38
Erendis $38
dolcevita $38
choubachou $38
The Dark Shape $37
Vovanik $37
Terminator1997 $36
Lucky $36
want2write $35
Legend of Jam $35
rusty $33
newfoundglorysp $32.1

BJ $18
Kali Arie $16l
Nebs $15
Ragnarok $15
Animosity Reigns $15
DP07 $14
alex young $14
Dr. Lecter $12.2
Zingaling $11
matatonio $10.5
revolutions $10
newfoundglorysp $9.43

Congrats deathawk, Scott and Kali.

PLUS, you are failing to see that I myself predicted a $46.5 opening that would lead to a $280 total. I don't think all odds are against me.

This isn't a good comparison at all, but do you remember Sin City and it's "fantastic" legs it would have? WOM doesn't mean a thing when there's people rushing out to see it.

I never thought Sin City would have fantastic legs. It's the type of movie to drop hard, and people here were overestimating it a lot. Episode III, on the other hand, is something completely different. It's a movie people are willing to see more than once (or even twice). Sin City was not, in my opinion. Plus, Sin City didn't have Memorial Day weekend in it's second weekend.

That weekend alone will push Sith past $300 million. Assuming it makes $100 million this weekend:

3-Day: $100,000,000
4-Day: $150,000,000

3-Day: $45,000,000 (-55%)
4-Day: $56,250,000

Just with this weekend and next weekend alone, it's $206 million. With weekdays and little competition (June 3rd is a dead weekend for openers anyways, and Batman doesn't come out until June 15th), do you really think it can't get an extra $100 million from the weekdays and weekends? It's not going to have drops over 50% every weekend, MG.

I'm glad I'm a member of the $150m in 4 days club.

To give some interesting perspective.

- A 3 day opening of $50,013,859 would currently place a movie #45 on the all time opening weekend chart just behind Independence Day.
- The Phantom Menace didn't reach $50 million till its third day of release.
- Attack of the Clones two day total was $54,546,174
- Return of the Kings two day total was $51,470,821
- Revenge of the Sith after one day is already the 17th highest grossing movie of the year.
- Revenge of the Sith's one day take of $50,013,859 averages out to $2,144,617 per hour.
- The last movie to have a 3-day opening over $50 million was The Village.
- The rest of the top 10 for Thursday May 19th grossed a combined $4,476,503

I do expect it to keep falling hard every weekend. I think you overestimate the people who see it more than once. The general audience does not do that kind of thing anymore when you have DVD. We will only know who's right at the 3rd or 4th weekend.

as darth vader says "Impressive.....most impressive"

That was the one that surprised me the most. Just... wow..

I have exactley the same numbers like you. I think Thursday is inflated just because it sounds nicer to be above 50 Million. This is why I agree with your 40% drop off to friday and all the other numbers

The Matrix Reloaded and Attack of the Clones are the only other movies to open on a Thursday so they are the only two to compare to.

Revenge of the Sith's opening if it follows The Matrix Reloaded's pattern (Wednesday night previews are combined with Thursday's numbers for TMR).

Thursday: $50,013,859
Friday: $36,860,214 (-26.3%)
Saturday: $40,472,514 (+9.8%)
Sunday: $30,678,165 (-24.2%)

3-day total: $108,010,893
4-day total: $158,024,752

Revenge of the Sith's opening if it follows Attack of the Clones pattern

Thursday: $50,013,859
Friday: $40,511,255 (-19%)
Saturday: $51,894,917 (+28.1%)
Sunday: $40,478,035 (-22%)

3-day total: $132,884,207
4-day total: $182,898,066

wait a second!! thats not right. Thats definitely not right. Incredibles??