It'll crack 400 million in USA. Worldwide, it might join the 1 billion club.

My full and final predictions no more revisions.

Opening day: $45 million (includes midnight showings)
Friday: $35 million
Saturday: $43 million
Sunday: $35 million

3-Day: $113 million
4-Day: $158 million

First weekday numbers

Monday: $14 million
Tuesday: $10.1 million
Wednesday: $9.4 million
Thursday: $8.8 million

total after first week: $200.3 million


Second Weekend

3 day- $58 million
4 day- $70 million

Total after Memorial day: $270 million

Total Domestic: $415 million
Total Overseas: $505 million
Total Worldwide: $920 million

Records and feats.

Largest opening day: $45 million
Largest Single day: $45 million
Biggest Thursday: $45 million
Biggest Sunday: $35 million

Days to $100 million: 3 (tying Spider-Man and The Matrix Reloaded)
Days to $200 million: 8 (tying Spider-Man 2)

BOP:

http://www.boxofficereport.com/wbon/forecast.shtml

From CNN:

Total Revenues from BO, DVDs/VHS, and Merchandise for all 6 films are expected to surpass $20B.

Holy...crap.


Btw, I expect George Lucas to personally earn $400-500m from Sith.

O_O WOW! no wonder he's worth billions.

Star Wars is just as frontloaded as The Matrix Reloaded and Attack of the Clones. Or, at least it will be in its opening weekend.

Chances are, we're looking at a 22-30% decrease on Friday (from an opening day in the high 30s to mid 40s), a small increase on Saturday (around 10-25%. This is a bigger movie than Episode II, after all), and a 25-35% decrease on Sunday.

With the maximum of $45m on Thursday and the best numbers throughout the weekend, it'd make: $111,881,250 for the 3-day and $156,881,250 for the 4-day.

With the maximum of $45m on Thursday and the worst numbers throughout the weekend, it'd make: $88,672,500 for the 3-day and $133,672,500 for the 4-day.

With the minimum of $38m on Thursday and the best numbers throughout the weekend, it'd make: $94,477,500 for the 3-day and $132,477,500 for the 4-day.

With the minimum of $38m on Thursday and the worst numbers throughout the weekend, it'd make: $74,879,000 for the 3-day and $112,879,000 for the 4-day.

With the average of $41.5m on Thursday, 26% decrease on Friday, 17.5% increase on Saturday, and 30% decrease on Sunday, it'd make: $92,053,225 for the 3-day and $133,553,225 for the 4-day.

I'd say both extremes are out. Considering how the ones in the middle all sit around $133m ($133,234,408 to be exact, with some decimals on the side...), I think it's safe to place Revenge of the Sith at that amount...

As for the final gross, I'm guessing around $310m.

So, put me down for $92m/$133.2m/$310m

You know how AoTC was considered a disappointment?


Hahahahahaha


Ha...





It was absolutely not for Lucas.

He earned at least $300m from AotC, and possibly over $350m. From TPM, he earned $493m.


He is the richest person who is directly involved with making films (so, no CEOs, executives, etc.). His total worth is around $3B, making him richer than No. 2 Steven Spielberg.

thurs - 43 (15ish for midnights)
fri - 31.25
sat - 42.5
sun - 30.8

3 day - 104.55
4 day - 147.55

2nd weekend drop - 51%
3rd weekend drop - 38%

Madagascar will hurt its 2nd weekend but then the 3rd summer will be in full swing and everyone will want to see it again, plus nothing really good opens that weekend except Pants

Btw guys, does anyone know when the initial numbers will be available?


I mean, will it be around 5pm Friday, or will we be starting to get word by Thursday night?

Well, we'll have an idea of where the Thursday gross is going by Thursday night based on Yahoo Reviews (I hope...).

We'll find out midnight shows by late afternoon tomorrow, I bet. Variety and such things will release unofficial numbers like always.

Hey Box are those earnings from worldwide boxoffice only or are dvds included?
and how much is Spielberg worth?

Well, I don't think I will be at home Friday when the Thursday actuals come out.

If estimates aren't in by Thursday night, I'm going to PM Nebs the charts, and he can add SW3 to them.

Nebs, are you ok with that plan?

126M 3 Day
176M 4 Day
515M total

Man that kool aid is tasty.

It includes everything. Every single thing related to Star Wars that you purchase legally ( :wink: ) adds to Lucas' bank account (It should, it's his creation).

BO-wise, I'd say probably less than half comes from there. Maybe even less than 1/3rd.

Spielberg has $2.3-2.7B.


Thing is, because both own rights to those huge films, they make money from them every year. So Lucas could have retired in 1977 and would still be making money today just from SW:ANH. Also, he has Indiana Jones, which he shares with Spielberg.

And, just as importantly, THX and Industrial Light and Magic, which is responsible for a huge number of the very expensive s/fx in a lot of blockbusters. From a technical perspective, Lucas = genius.

My predictions.

Thursday - $50 million (including 15m from previews)
Friday - $34.5 million (-31%)
Saturday - $42.1 million (+22%)
Sunday - $30.2 million (-24%)
Weekend - $106.8 million
4 day Total - $156.8 million

Cume - $425 million.

Ofcourse...but be back soon!

I wish you are mod so can update title or first post when I'm not around, but will try my best. Can't wait for first charts.

If I remember correctly Lucas himself finances these movies out of his own pocket.

Correct. Not only that, but Fox does not get a share of the box office. Lucas pays them a fee, say $100m, for distributing the film. In turn, he gets what would be Fox's share of the box office. Now, I'm positive that, because this is such a strong brand, it's probably an even 50/50, at the least (the same with Sony and Spider-Man).

AotC made around $650m WW, so the studio return was roughly $325m. Say, Lucas paid Fox a flat $100m fee, that leaves him with $225m. Budget + Advertising (~$135m+$75m) = $210m. This leaves him with $15m in profit before DVDs, exluding merchandise and tv rights. That is amazing. Basically, all those things would be pure profit for him.


Nebs,



Awesome, I can't wait either. It's so good to finally see some major change at the top of the charts.

I think I'll stick with the last predictions I made. I'm confident enough now.

Thu: 43.1
Fri: 33.5
Sat: 42.9
Sun: 29.0

3-Day: 105.4
4-Day: 148.5
5-Day: 159.5
1st Week: 178.1
8-Day: 186.3
Weekday Total: 37.8

Fri: 20.4
Sat: 26.1
Sun: 16.9
Mon: 13.0

2nd Weekend (3-Day): 63.4
2nd Weekend (4-Day): 76.4
Total after 12 days: 262.7
3rd Weekend: 34.2
Total after 18 days: 315.2

Final Total (Domestic): 394.9 (3.75)
Final Total (International): 427.3
Final Total (Worldwide): 822.3

I can't believe I spent a whole half-hour of my life doing that.

Predictions:

Opening Day: $42.5 million
3-Day Weekend: $93 million
4-Day Weekend: $135.5 million

PEACE, Mike

Im now convinced this will be close to $50m opening day - if not more. $160m by the end of the weekend and way past $400m by the end of its run.

Though, i'll keep my predictions as is for the sake of this thread.

It's Thursday. Sith has officially opened. The hexology has come to a conclusion.

My final predictions are $45 million opening, $105 million 3-day, and $150 million 4-day.