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 Episode III Thread - 16th on All-Time Domestic List 
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Indiana Jones IV
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UPDATED:

Opening Day $39.7
Opening Weekend $96.0
4-Day Weekend $135.7

Memorial Day Weekend $51.8 (-46%)

Total Domestic Gross $340m
Domestic Multiplier 3.54
Opening 3-Day as a % Of Gross 28.2%

Total International Gross $380m
Total Worldwide Gross $720m

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Tue May 17, 2005 1:27 am
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The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Opening Day: 52 Million

4 day total: 160-200 Million

After Memorial Day Weekend: Tack on another 100 Million bringing this to roughly around 300 plus Million and after that, it's smooth sailing at the box office until BATMAN comes out and even then, I think SITH is still gonna hurt the Caped Crusader with the legs this film will have..

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Tue May 17, 2005 2:26 am
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Teh Mexican
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BKB_The_Man wrote:
Opening Day: 52 Million

4 day total: 160-200 Million

After Memorial Day Weekend: Tack on another 100 Million bringing this to roughly around 300 plus Million and after that, it's smooth sailing at the box office until BATMAN comes out and even then, I think SITH is still gonna hurt the Caped Crusader with the legs this film will have..


wow man! thats WAAAAAY to much, i really dont think it will do that amount, at max i say $140M-$145M


Tue May 17, 2005 2:34 am
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May 18 (midnight showings) - $14 million
May 19 - $27 million (not including midnight showings)
May 20-22 - $90 million


Tue May 17, 2005 2:54 am
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matatonio wrote:
BKB_The_Man wrote:
Opening Day: 52 Million

4 day total: 160-200 Million

After Memorial Day Weekend: Tack on another 100 Million bringing this to roughly around 300 plus Million and after that, it's smooth sailing at the box office until BATMAN comes out and even then, I think SITH is still gonna hurt the Caped Crusader with the legs this film will have..


wow man! thats WAAAAAY to much, i really dont think it will do that amount, at max i say $140M-$145M


Well considering FANDANGO has sold $150-200 Million in ticket sales weeks before this has come out making it the largest selling movie in history according to them, I don't think this is impossible.. :-k

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Tue May 17, 2005 3:28 am
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Indiana Jones IV
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My I'm-trying-to-keep-it-real-but-I'm-still-a-fanboy predic:

3 day- 99
4 day- 144

That is:

Thursday- 45
Friday- 35
Saturday- 39
Sunday- 25

Another set of predictions that I came up with:

3 day- 88
4 day- 130

Thursday- 42
Friday- 32
Saturday- 35
Sunday- 21

I stand by the first prediction, the 2nd one is just to make myself feel like I'm still an objective person.

The circumstances, though, they all point out to a stellar opening. It could even go beyond what I've predicted. It's like everything, every single piece has fit so perfectly and the way for SW is totally clear. The sky is the limit really on opening weekend.


Tue May 17, 2005 4:42 am
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The Thirteenth Floor
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MovieDude wrote:
Damn Zing, we almost have the same opening weekend predictions! :) I'm going with 100 million three day, 145 million four day, 44 million second weekend (55 million five day), and a total of 325 million.


Similar here too. 99/140/302


Tue May 17, 2005 5:19 am
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The Thirteenth Floor
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BKB_The_Man wrote:
matatonio wrote:
BKB_The_Man wrote:
Opening Day: 52 Million

4 day total: 160-200 Million

After Memorial Day Weekend: Tack on another 100 Million bringing this to roughly around 300 plus Million and after that, it's smooth sailing at the box office until BATMAN comes out and even then, I think SITH is still gonna hurt the Caped Crusader with the legs this film will have..


wow man! thats WAAAAAY to much, i really dont think it will do that amount, at max i say $140M-$145M


Well considering FANDANGO has sold $150-200 Million in ticket sales weeks before this has come out making it the largest selling movie in history according to them, I don't think this is impossible.. :-k


Come on BKB, the source for that is some guy who says he knows someone who remembers seeing something somewhere on TV about it. :wink:


Tue May 17, 2005 5:22 am
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junio wrote:
My I'm-trying-to-keep-it-real-but-I'm-still-a-fanboy predic:

3 day- 99
4 day- 144

That is:

Thursday- 45
Friday- 35
Saturday- 39
Sunday- 25

Another set of predictions that I came up with:

3 day- 88
4 day- 130

Thursday- 42
Friday- 32
Saturday- 35
Sunday- 21

I stand by the first prediction, the 2nd one is just to make myself feel like I'm still an objective person.

The circumstances, though, they all point out to a stellar opening. It could even go beyond what I've predicted. It's like everything, every single piece has fit so perfectly and the way for SW is totally clear. The sky is the limit really on opening weekend.


Based on all the evidence I hardly think those are crazy fanboy predictions. :wink:


Tue May 17, 2005 5:23 am
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Are we doing midnight predictions?

Mine - 12.5m


Tue May 17, 2005 5:24 am
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What's the record for Midnights shows? Didn't Return of the King get, like, $8 million? If that's the highest, Sith will destroy it.


Tue May 17, 2005 6:25 am
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Code:

all $ are in millions.

                Op- Opening   Memorial  3day  3day 3day Dom- Over WW  Mult  Mid-
                en- Weekend   Weekend   2nd   OW % OW   es-  seas Ttl w/o   nig-
                ing (thu-sun) (fri-mon) wknd  of   Mult tic  Ttl      OD    ht
                Day 3day 4day 3day 4day drop  Ttl  iply Ttl 
================================================================================
Algren            ?   65   ?    ?   ?      ?  22%  4.6  301    ?    ?    ?     ?
MG Casey         46   91 136   51   ?    44%  32%  3.1  285  386  625  2.6     ?
Korrgan           ?  105   ?    ?   ?      ?  31%  3.2  338    ?    ?    ?     ?
Nebs             46  116 162   77  91    34%  23%  4.3  500  531 1031  3.9    15
matatonio        40   96 136   51  60    47%  31%  3.2  308  373  681  2.8     ?
Snickety Snack 2  ?   87   ?    ?   ?      ?  29%  3.4  297    ?    ?    ?     ?
Dr. Lecter       41   96 137    ?   ?      ?  28%  3.6  341    ?    ?  3.1     ?
Amer              ?    ? 138    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  406    ?    ?    ?     ?
BJ               48  115 163   64  83    44%  23%  4.4  502  598 1100  3.9     ?
ShadyMilkman      ?  102   ?    ?   ?      ?  25%  4.0  405    ?    ?    ?     ?
neo wolf          ?   90   ?    ?   ?      ?  27%  3.7  330    ?    ?    ?     ?
RogueCommander   44  108 152   59  71    45%  27%  3.8  405  600 1005  3.3     ?
Daniel Raedts     ?    ?   ?    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  525    ?    ?    ?     ?
ChipMunky        40  115 155   71  90    38%  21%  4.7  537  463 1000  4.3     ?
DP07             41   99 140   41  51    59%  33%  3.1  302  370  672  2.6    13
Maverikk          ?    ? 125    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  350    ?    ?    ?     ?
hans             46   91 137   52  65    43%  25%  4.0  360  390  750  3.5     ?
jb007             ?   96   ?    ?   ?      ?  21%  4.8  462    ?    ?    ?     ?
Riggs27           ?   94   ?    ?   ?      ?  29%  3.5  327    ?    ?    ?     ?
Samweis Gamdschie ?   93   ?    ?   ?      ?  32%  3.1  291    ?    ?    ?     ?
Nazgul9          40   95 135   47   ?    51%  27%  3.7  350  400  750  3.3     ?
MikeQ.            ?   95   ?    ?   ?      ?  32%  3.2  300    ?    ?    ?     ?
FILMO            41   98 139    ?   ?      ?  25%  4.0  388  462  850  3.5     ?
want2write       35   95 130    ?   ?      ?  29%  3.5  330    ?    ?  3.1     ?
insomniacdude    45  105 150   60  78    43%  22%  4.6  480  350  830  4.1     ?
Ragnarok         45   90 136   39  47    57%  31%  3.2  290  319  609  2.7     ?
El_masked_este.. 42   95 137    ?   ?      ?  33%  3.1  290    ?    ?  2.6     ?
Squee             ?   87   ?    ?   ?      ?  27%  3.8  327    ?    ?    ?     ?
Impact           47  112 159   68  90    39%  29%  3.5  390  510  900  3.1     ?
revolutions      41   95 136   50  62    47%  29%  3.4  325  500  825  3.0     ?
moviedude        45  100 145   44  55    56%  31%  3.3  325    ?    ?  2.8     ?
scottb           40  111 151   63  75    43%  27%  3.6  405  485  890  3.3     ?
Zingaling        45  101 146   55  68    46%  29%  3.4  348  400  748  3.0     ?
Futureboy         ?  103   ?    ?   ?      ?  30%  3.4  345  465  810    ?     ?
Killuminati510    ?    ? 120    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  355    ?    ?    ?     ?
BKB The Man      52  108 160    ?   ?      ?  32%  3.1  340    ?    ?  2.7     ?
Jon Lyrik         ?    ?   ?    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  290    ?    ?    ?     ?
rusty            33  105 138    ?   ?      ?  26%  3.9  410    ?    ?  3.6     ?
nghtvsn          43  108 151   64  81    41%  26%  3.8  415  502  917  3.4     ?
Terminator1997   36  101 137    ?   ?      ?  23%  4.3  434  510  944  3.9     ?
addrOck           ?    ? 125    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  400    ?    ?    ?     ?
Legend of Jam    35  105 140    ?   ?      ?  29%  3.5  363    ?    ?  3.1     ?
Positive Jon     37   97 134    ?   ?      ?  27%  3.7  363  387  750  3.4     ?
Amos             40   96 136   52   ?    46%  28%  3.5  340  380  720  3.1     ?
Steve            38   97 135    ?   ?      ?  31%  3.2  315    ?    ?  2.9     ?
Erendis          38   86 124    ?  75      ?  26%  3.8  325  350  675  3.3     ?
baumer72         39  110 149    ?  75      ?  27%  3.7  410  490  900  3.4     ?
JMorphin         40  100 140    ?   ?      ?  31%  3.2  321    ?    ?  2.8     ?
StarWars         39   97 136   56  73    42%  24%  4.1  397  454  851  3.7     ?
TonyMontana       ?   78   ?    ?   ?      ?  31%  3.3  255    ?    ?    ?     ?
The Dark Shape   37   93 130   72   ?    23%  27%  3.8  350  380  730  3.4     ?
Archie Gates     40  115 155    ?   ?      ?  33%  3.0  350    ?    ?  2.7     ?
loyalfromlondon  47  123 170    ?   ?      ?  26%  3.8  470    ?    ?  3.4     ?
Mesjarch         46  108 154   74  93    31%  25%  4.0  435  470  905  3.6     ?
RB652             ?    ?  95    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  308    ?    ?    ?     ?
Raffiki          43  104 147   74  85    29%  25%  3.9  410  590 1000  3.5     ?
Vovanik          37   82 119    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    ?     ?
dolcevita        38   91 129    ?   ?      ?  24%  4.1  375  325  700  3.7     ?
torrino          38   80 118   42   ?    48%  28%  3.6  285    ?    ?  3.1     ?
BOYFRESH         40  113 153   72  87    36%  25%  4.0  450  525  975  3.6     ?
KC               42  102 144    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    ?     ?
Flava'd‡         44  107 151   60  77    44%  26%  3.8  410  560  970  3.4     ?
MadGez           41  108 149    ?  74      ?  25%  4.0  437  370  807  3.7     ?
~~~Archangel~~~  41  106 147    ?   ?      ?  23%  4.3  460  500  960  4.0     ?
choubachou       38   90 128    ?   ?      ?  38%  3.5  319  376  695  3.1     ?
Buffjedi          ?    ?   ?    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  560  440 1000    ?     ?
Ivan K           40   92 132    ?   ?      ?  29%  3.4  315    ?    ?  3.0     ?
Kali Ariel       44   95 139    ?   ?      ?  27%  3.7  350    ?    ?  3.2     ?
neostorm         51   94 145   47  59    50%  23%  4.3  401  425  826  3.7     ?
Snrub             ?    ?   ?    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  289    ?    ?    ?     ?
Chris            44   98 132    ?   ?      ?  26%  3.8  375    ?    ?  3.4     ?
newfoundglorysp  32   79 111   43  56    46%  29%  3.4  270  500  770  3.0     ?
alex young       41   90 131    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    14
junio            45   99 144    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    ?    ?     ?

Premiere          ?    ?   ?    ?   ?      ?    ?    ?  400    ?    ?    ?     ?

================================================================================
average          41   98 140   57  73   -43%  27%  3.7  369  448  838  3.3    14

Low              32   65  95   39  47   -23%  21%  3.0  255  319  609  2.6    13
High             52  123 170   77  93   -59%  33%  4.8  560  600 1100  4.3    15
================================================================================

TPM actual       29   65 106^  51  67   -22%  15%  6.6  431  493  924  6.1     ?
AOTC actual      30   80 110   48  60   -40%  26%  3.9  311  339  650  3.5     8



^ 106 is a 5-day total as TPM opened on wednesday.  AOTC opened
on thursday and ROTS will also open on thursday.


opening weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is thu-sun.
memorial day weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is fri-mon.


Click here for boxoffice stats for Episode I
Click here for boxoffice stats for Episode II
Click here for Episode I vs. Episode II weekend showdown
Click here for Episode I vs. Episode II daily showdown


Tue May 17, 2005 8:10 am
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Zingaling wrote:
What's the record for Midnights shows? Didn't Return of the King get, like, $8 million? If that's the highest, Sith will destroy it.


AOTC got 8m as well.

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Tue May 17, 2005 10:54 am
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BJs midnight showings prediction:

18m

I think that arounbd 35%-40% of the films opening day will be in midnight showings alone.

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Tue May 17, 2005 11:29 am
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Indiana Jones IV
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add my midnight showing prediction of 9.43 m.

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Tue May 17, 2005 2:54 pm
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Well i have no idea on the midnight showing....ill say... $10.5M


Tue May 17, 2005 3:41 pm
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Hmmm.. I'll say around $11 million for the midnight showings.


Tue May 17, 2005 3:49 pm
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How about weekday numbers for this one. Being that this one is PG-13 and may be favored more by teens and adults then the previous Prequels I think it may have stronger weekday numbers.

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All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Tue May 17, 2005 4:20 pm
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Opening day:43.5

4 day weekend:156.2


Tue May 17, 2005 4:35 pm
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Ill raise my prediction

4 day total= 138 million
final domestic total= 405 million


Tue May 17, 2005 6:21 pm
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Remember all those times threads about the next BIG BO movie?

Well, I think this baby's goin' go big...

Opening Day: 48

3 Day Weekend: 118

4 Day Weekend: 158

Memorial Day Wknd - 3 Day: 68

Memorial Day Wknd - 4 Day: 88

Domestic Total: 518

Overseas Total: 582

Worldwide Total: 1,100


Tue May 17, 2005 9:11 pm
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Now, I don't want to disappoint everyone, but the 3,661 theatre count makes me feel very confident about my $40m op. day prediction. I think this will do more or less about as much as SM2 did opening day.

Look at most of the top opening days with averages above $5k in wide release:

Spider-Man $10,901 ( $39,406,872 / 3,615 )
The Matrix Reloaded $10,410 ( $37,508,303 / 3,603 )
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $9,927 ( $38,268,295 / 3,855 )
Spider-Man 2 $9,741 ( $40,442,604 / 4,152 )
Star Wars: Phantom Menace $9,610 ( $28,542,349 / 2,970 )
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones $9,535 ( $30,141,471 / 3,161 )
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $9,303 ( $34,450,834 / 3,703 )
The Passion of the Christ $8,835 ( $26,556,573 / 3,006 )
X2: X-Men United $8,353 ( $31,247,979 / 3,741 )
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $8,048 ( $29,631,453 / 3,682 )
8 Mile $7,925 ( $19,574,765 / 2,470 )
Austin Powers in Goldmember $7,321 ( $26,452,351 / 3,613 )
Rush Hour 2 $7,254 ( $22,617,500 / 3,118 )
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $7,223 ( $26,159,972 / 3,622 )
Planet of the Apes $7,173 ( $25,061,500 / 3,494 )
The Mummy Returns $7,105 ( $24,134,667 / 3,397 )
X-Men $7,069 ( $21,385,000 / 3,025 )
The Matrix Revolutions $6,942 ( $24,311,365 / 3,502 )
The Day After Tomorrow $6,863 ( $23,504,430 / 3,425 )
The Hulk $6,635 ( $24,284,065 / 3,660 )
Signs $6,398 ( $20,884,660 / 3,264 )
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me $6,096 ( $20,190,000 / 3,312 )
Finding Nemo $5,989 ( $20,208,056 / 3,374 )
The Bourne Supremacy $5,825 ( $18,436,125 / 3,165 )
Bruce Almighty $5,775 ( $20,114,325 / 3,483 )
2 Fast 2 Furious $5,770 ( $19,664,160 / 3,408 )
Scooby-Doo $5,571 ( $19,204,859 / 3,447 )
Jurassic Park III $5,540 ( $19,024,360 / 3,434 )
The Village $5,465 ( $20,382,664 / 3,730 )
Van Helsing $5,460 ( $19,519,430 / 3,575 )
Monsters, Inc. $5,372 ( $17,390,000 / 3,237 )
Bad Boys II $5,299 ( $16,883,057 / 3,186 )
I, Robot $5,284 ( $18,072,179 / 3,420 )
Scary Movie 3 $5,249 ( $18,397,000 / 3,505 )
Men in Black II $5,229 ( $18,599,621 / 3,557 )
The Incredibles $5,213 ( $20,503,078 / 3,933 )
XXX $5,131 ( $17,311,194 / 3,374 )
Die Another Day $5,015 ( $16,619,731 / 3,314 )
Troy $5,000 ( $17,053,740 / 3,411 )
Waterboy, The $4,831 ( $12,870,000 / 2,664 )
X Files: Fight the Future, The $4,812 ( $12,635,000 / 2,626 )
Big Daddy $4,790 ( $14,500,000 / 3,027 )
Mummy, The $4,664 ( $14,970,000 / 3,210 )



Reloaded, if you add the $5m previews, has an avg. of $11,795 during the first 26 hours. To match that avg., SW3 would need $43.2m on opening day at least.

Look at adjusted grosses:


Star Wars: Phantom Menace $11,823 ( $35,116,079 / 2,970 )
Spider-Man $11,727 ( $42,391,213 / 3,615 )
The Matrix Reloaded $10,790 ( $38,876,765 / 3,603 )
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones $10,257 ( $32,424,130 / 3,161 )
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $9,927 ( $38,268,295 / 3,855 )
Spider-Man 2 $9,741 ( $40,442,604 / 4,152 )
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $9,642 ( $35,707,747 / 3,703 )
The Passion of the Christ $8,835 ( $26,556,573 / 3,006 )
X2: X-Men United $8,658 ( $32,388,038 / 3,741 )
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $8,657 ( $31,875,487 / 3,682 )
8 Mile $8,525 ( $21,057,191 / 2,470 )
X-Men $8,197 ( $24,797,078 / 3,025 )
Rush Hour 2 $8,010 ( $24,975,155 / 3,118 )
Planet of the Apes $7,921 ( $27,673,918 / 3,494 )
Austin Powers in Goldmember $7,875 ( $28,455,627 / 3,613 )
The Mummy Returns $7,846 ( $26,650,472 / 3,397 )
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $7,770 ( $28,141,106 / 3,622 )
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me $7,500 ( $24,840,059 / 3,312 )
The Matrix Revolutions $7,195 ( $25,198,347 / 3,502 )
Signs $6,883 ( $22,466,287 / 3,264 )
The Hulk $6,877 ( $25,170,051 / 3,660 )
The Day After Tomorrow $6,863 ( $23,504,430 / 3,425 )
Waterboy, The $6,438 ( $17,150,853 / 2,664 )
X Files: Fight the Future, The $6,413 ( $16,837,687 / 2,626 )
Finding Nemo $6,208 ( $20,945,332 / 3,374 )
Jurassic Park III $6,117 ( $21,007,465 / 3,434 )
Scooby-Doo $5,993 ( $20,659,272 / 3,447 )
Bruce Almighty $5,986 ( $20,848,181 / 3,483 )
2 Fast 2 Furious $5,981 ( $20,381,592 / 3,408 )
Monsters, Inc. $5,932 ( $19,202,739 / 3,237 )
Big Daddy $5,893 ( $17,839,567 / 3,027 )
The Bourne Supremacy $5,825 ( $18,436,125 / 3,165 )
Mummy, The $5,738 ( $18,417,815 / 3,210 )
Men in Black II $5,625 ( $20,008,198 / 3,557 )
XXX $5,520 ( $18,622,197 / 3,374 )
Bad Boys II $5,492 ( $17,499,023 / 3,186 )
The Village $5,465 ( $20,382,664 / 3,730 )
Van Helsing $5,460 ( $19,519,430 / 3,575 )
Scary Movie 3 $5,441 ( $19,068,201 / 3,505 )
Die Another Day $5,395 ( $17,878,368 / 3,314 )
I, Robot $5,284 ( $18,072,179 / 3,420 )
The Incredibles $5,213 ( $20,503,078 / 3,933 )
Troy $5,000 ( $17,053,740 / 3,411 )



Even TPM, with more than one and a half decades of pent-up demand and ridiculously high anticipation couldn't get past the $12k mark, not even on fewert theatre counts (corresponding to greater concentration per theatre). Note also that AOTC had a smaller avg. than TPM, on more screens. I think that $12k will be the upper ceiling for the film, so the maximum I see it getting it around $43.9m, but I think it will end up with $40m.

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Tue May 17, 2005 9:21 pm
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Same argument as I made in another thread, plus charts. Needless to say, I'm going to with 40M opening day also.

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Tue May 17, 2005 9:24 pm
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xiayun wrote:
Same argument as I made in another thread, plus charts. Needless to say, I'm going to with 40M opening day also.



Oh nice, I'm glad I'm not alone here.

I think that the fact that it's a wider release, plus the fact that it is, after all, a Thursday and not a Weekend Day, will keep its average below $12k.


We'll see soon enough.

_________________
In order of preference: Christian, Argos

MadGez wrote:
Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation.


My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/


Tue May 17, 2005 9:27 pm
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Nevermind, I don't want to go over 43 million... I'll go with 43 million even opening day, 98 million for the weekend, 141 for the four day, and 315 million total, final prediction.


Tue May 17, 2005 10:04 pm
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