Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990
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Now, I don't want to disappoint everyone, but the 3,661 theatre count makes me feel very confident about my $40m op. day prediction. I think this will do more or less about as much as SM2 did opening day.
Look at most of the top opening days with averages above $5k in wide release:
Spider-Man $10,901 ( $39,406,872 / 3,615 )
The Matrix Reloaded $10,410 ( $37,508,303 / 3,603 )
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $9,927 ( $38,268,295 / 3,855 )
Spider-Man 2 $9,741 ( $40,442,604 / 4,152 )
Star Wars: Phantom Menace $9,610 ( $28,542,349 / 2,970 )
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones $9,535 ( $30,141,471 / 3,161 )
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $9,303 ( $34,450,834 / 3,703 )
The Passion of the Christ $8,835 ( $26,556,573 / 3,006 )
X2: X-Men United $8,353 ( $31,247,979 / 3,741 )
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $8,048 ( $29,631,453 / 3,682 )
8 Mile $7,925 ( $19,574,765 / 2,470 )
Austin Powers in Goldmember $7,321 ( $26,452,351 / 3,613 )
Rush Hour 2 $7,254 ( $22,617,500 / 3,118 )
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $7,223 ( $26,159,972 / 3,622 )
Planet of the Apes $7,173 ( $25,061,500 / 3,494 )
The Mummy Returns $7,105 ( $24,134,667 / 3,397 )
X-Men $7,069 ( $21,385,000 / 3,025 )
The Matrix Revolutions $6,942 ( $24,311,365 / 3,502 )
The Day After Tomorrow $6,863 ( $23,504,430 / 3,425 )
The Hulk $6,635 ( $24,284,065 / 3,660 )
Signs $6,398 ( $20,884,660 / 3,264 )
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me $6,096 ( $20,190,000 / 3,312 )
Finding Nemo $5,989 ( $20,208,056 / 3,374 )
The Bourne Supremacy $5,825 ( $18,436,125 / 3,165 )
Bruce Almighty $5,775 ( $20,114,325 / 3,483 )
2 Fast 2 Furious $5,770 ( $19,664,160 / 3,408 )
Scooby-Doo $5,571 ( $19,204,859 / 3,447 )
Jurassic Park III $5,540 ( $19,024,360 / 3,434 )
The Village $5,465 ( $20,382,664 / 3,730 )
Van Helsing $5,460 ( $19,519,430 / 3,575 )
Monsters, Inc. $5,372 ( $17,390,000 / 3,237 )
Bad Boys II $5,299 ( $16,883,057 / 3,186 )
I, Robot $5,284 ( $18,072,179 / 3,420 )
Scary Movie 3 $5,249 ( $18,397,000 / 3,505 )
Men in Black II $5,229 ( $18,599,621 / 3,557 )
The Incredibles $5,213 ( $20,503,078 / 3,933 )
XXX $5,131 ( $17,311,194 / 3,374 )
Die Another Day $5,015 ( $16,619,731 / 3,314 )
Troy $5,000 ( $17,053,740 / 3,411 )
Waterboy, The $4,831 ( $12,870,000 / 2,664 )
X Files: Fight the Future, The $4,812 ( $12,635,000 / 2,626 )
Big Daddy $4,790 ( $14,500,000 / 3,027 )
Mummy, The $4,664 ( $14,970,000 / 3,210 )
Reloaded, if you add the $5m previews, has an avg. of $11,795 during the first 26 hours. To match that avg., SW3 would need $43.2m on opening day at least.
Look at adjusted grosses:
Star Wars: Phantom Menace $11,823 ( $35,116,079 / 2,970 )
Spider-Man $11,727 ( $42,391,213 / 3,615 )
The Matrix Reloaded $10,790 ( $38,876,765 / 3,603 )
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones $10,257 ( $32,424,130 / 3,161 )
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $9,927 ( $38,268,295 / 3,855 )
Spider-Man 2 $9,741 ( $40,442,604 / 4,152 )
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $9,642 ( $35,707,747 / 3,703 )
The Passion of the Christ $8,835 ( $26,556,573 / 3,006 )
X2: X-Men United $8,658 ( $32,388,038 / 3,741 )
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $8,657 ( $31,875,487 / 3,682 )
8 Mile $8,525 ( $21,057,191 / 2,470 )
X-Men $8,197 ( $24,797,078 / 3,025 )
Rush Hour 2 $8,010 ( $24,975,155 / 3,118 )
Planet of the Apes $7,921 ( $27,673,918 / 3,494 )
Austin Powers in Goldmember $7,875 ( $28,455,627 / 3,613 )
The Mummy Returns $7,846 ( $26,650,472 / 3,397 )
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $7,770 ( $28,141,106 / 3,622 )
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me $7,500 ( $24,840,059 / 3,312 )
The Matrix Revolutions $7,195 ( $25,198,347 / 3,502 )
Signs $6,883 ( $22,466,287 / 3,264 )
The Hulk $6,877 ( $25,170,051 / 3,660 )
The Day After Tomorrow $6,863 ( $23,504,430 / 3,425 )
Waterboy, The $6,438 ( $17,150,853 / 2,664 )
X Files: Fight the Future, The $6,413 ( $16,837,687 / 2,626 )
Finding Nemo $6,208 ( $20,945,332 / 3,374 )
Jurassic Park III $6,117 ( $21,007,465 / 3,434 )
Scooby-Doo $5,993 ( $20,659,272 / 3,447 )
Bruce Almighty $5,986 ( $20,848,181 / 3,483 )
2 Fast 2 Furious $5,981 ( $20,381,592 / 3,408 )
Monsters, Inc. $5,932 ( $19,202,739 / 3,237 )
Big Daddy $5,893 ( $17,839,567 / 3,027 )
The Bourne Supremacy $5,825 ( $18,436,125 / 3,165 )
Mummy, The $5,738 ( $18,417,815 / 3,210 )
Men in Black II $5,625 ( $20,008,198 / 3,557 )
XXX $5,520 ( $18,622,197 / 3,374 )
Bad Boys II $5,492 ( $17,499,023 / 3,186 )
The Village $5,465 ( $20,382,664 / 3,730 )
Van Helsing $5,460 ( $19,519,430 / 3,575 )
Scary Movie 3 $5,441 ( $19,068,201 / 3,505 )
Die Another Day $5,395 ( $17,878,368 / 3,314 )
I, Robot $5,284 ( $18,072,179 / 3,420 )
The Incredibles $5,213 ( $20,503,078 / 3,933 )
Troy $5,000 ( $17,053,740 / 3,411 )
Even TPM, with more than one and a half decades of pent-up demand and ridiculously high anticipation couldn't get past the $12k mark, not even on fewert theatre counts (corresponding to greater concentration per theatre). Note also that AOTC had a smaller avg. than TPM, on more screens. I think that $12k will be the upper ceiling for the film, so the maximum I see it getting it around $43.9m, but I think it will end up with $40m.
_________________In order of preference: Christian, Argos MadGez wrote: Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation. My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/
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