A Minecraft Movie 73m

Not Sure how wide these are going
The Chosen last Supper Part 2- Probably a little less than Part 1
The Friend
Hell of a Summer
The Luckiest Man in America

April 2025 will be bigger than April 2024, though I think March+April 2024 combined will still have the edge with Dune 2, Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters, Godzilla x Kong, Civil War vs Snow White, Minecraft, Sinners, The Accountant 2, Mickey 17.

Minecraft 85m.

Yeesh. Well a box office win is much needed lol without any tracking I would have thought sub-45.

its presales are definitely accelerating. I can confirm tomorrow if 100m OW is happening. I think its definitely in play. Its doing well even in small markets. Not a movie driven by coasts or anything.

Well a breakout was due, we were thrown off by it not looking that good, but if it looked awesome maybe it would've been Mario Bros numbers instead of 300m. At least Gen Alpha seems into movies. Greenlight the Skibidi Toilet movie.

Bumping up Minecraft to 110m OW. its presales are going batshit crazy at this point. its friday pace and number is on par with IO2 !!!

Lol. Sure? After how horrible this year had been this is welcome

Almost on par. But even staying close to IO2 Friday is batshit crazy. That did 50m+ True Friday. This needs mid 30s to comfortably hit 100m. I can see

8/35/42/34 - 109m OW.

Mental. Why do Americans have such bad taste?

$115M. Would need a 3.48X multiplier to approach $400M. Easter is in its 3rd weekend as well.

Since Fast & Furious in 2009 this launch date really is starting to be the start of summer. I feel a lot better about this weekend vs first weekend of May which has been flimsy with tentpoles.

2009: Fast & Furious $71M
2010: Clash of the Titans $61M
2011: Hop $38M
2014: CA Winter Soldier $95M
2015: Furious 7 $147M
2017: Boss Baby $50M - 2 days of April in the weekend
2018: Quiet Place $50M
2019: Shazam $54M
2021: Godzilla vs Kong $32M (biggest OW of that time, likely would have done $70M+ normally)
2022: Morbius $39M but Sonic 2 a week later with $72M
2023: Super Mario $146M
2025: Minecraft $100M+

So likely 6 adjusted weekends of $100M+ OWs this weekend now. I'm not even including all the later half of April MCU/Jungle Book so April's been a very reliable source of $100M+ OWs the last decade. This weekend feels like the "franchise creator" weekend for high potential films.

Can Lilo and Stitch even beat this? Wont be easy for sure.

I'm just excited for another Lilo and Cruise showdown. The original opened against Minority Report in a photo finish. I think Lilo will have better legs but OW is going to be close though it has holiday inflation in its favor so I'll give Lilo the edge as well as its massive trailer views.

Also Minecraft will outgross Snow White's total in its OW. Maybe 2.5 days?

Even by end of day Sat. Its current gross it will definitely be ahead by then.

I could see 10m previews/37m Friday/45m saturday/37m Sunday at high end.

Minecraft blowing up past $100M actually makes perfect sense. We all predicted it was gonna happen after Mario and Freddy, but let our own biases turn us against the idea of it via the "well there's no way something that looks this bad does so well" logic.

Yes when in reality many movies that look bad make heaps of money all the time

I do recall the big $300m+ gross predictions we all made back in 2023.

I picked it in the Draft as a gamble because I thought it was going to either be big or totally flop. Up until this past week I was content with a $80-$120m total gross.

If Minecraft is doing this week this makes me even more hyped for what Lilo can do

I think we got distracted by the pink Momoa+kids part seeming lame, but people like the environment and minecraft animals and stuff + Black.

Warner Bros has been on a roll with non DC Ip since the pandemic.

Dune, Barbie, Wonka, Beetlejuice, Mienecraft all potentially lucrative franchises for them going forward.

It’s got 50% through 38 reviews

I will confirm if there is any impact due to reviews. Presales until yesterday were just off the charts. Tracking close to IO2. if walkups are at Mario/Minion 2 level, its going to double the industry projections and then some.

People forget that at one time Minecraft was the most popular game on the planet.

Despite middling reviews, presales today was nuts. I am thinking 130-140m OW now.

If this goes over 140m that would be mother of god

I have to give it to Mamoa, even if the IP is the star here, he's really pulled WB out of the dumps twice now. Aquaman 2 would have been a bigger disaster without him and Christmas holidays.

Jack Black finds another $200M+ franchise to churn out a few films. Got Kung Fu Panda, Jumanji, Super Mario Bros and now Minecraft.

Maybe his follow up film Anaconda will be interesting to watch. A Black / Rudd pair up over Christmas is another wildcard that he could maybe pull off. Maybe $100M+ off of terrible memes coming from the film?