Presales for Minecraft is more like a family movie than fan driven. Saturday is by far the strongest presales. I am expecting 12+ internal multiplier of its previews which is expected somewhere in 4-5m depending on final surge.

That's very encouraging. If I'm reading that correctly, do you think $60M is the floor for this now?

I think so. even 70m+ is in play depending on how it finishes.

Jack Black has been hot. Let's get a School of Rock 2. Shallow Hal 2 if you really want to get spicy.

A Shallow Hal with Ozempic angle would be interesting.

Also Jack Black has an unparalleled ability to latch on to franchises like Jumanji so definitely has a good agent.

School of Rock 2 is also that type of movie from the early 00s like Mean Girls that continues to grow on people. Wouldn't be an Elf 2 type blockbuster run but would still get a great showing.

That won't happen. Black has said before the only film he's regretted was Shallow Hal.

Definitely opening > 70m. How much higher depends on how crazy the finish is. I could see it pull a Mario and open > 100m OW :-) Remote but will not rule it out.

$70M+ floor now is even better. Clearly the IP still has a lot of fans. Great to see moviegoers excited to see something.

A massive rebound for WB too after Mickey 17, Companion, Alto Knights, Rohirrim, and Joker 2. I don't think they've had anything do massive business since Beetlejuice in Sept almost 7 months ago.

My final predicts before reviews are out.

DOM - 9m previews / 115m OW /350-400m Domestic
OS - 400-450m
WW - 750-850m range.

I dont know if this will be the lowest predicted industry forecast for an OW. In terms of absolute number there have been many as most breakouts are under predicted. This in % could be a record.

I feel like Hunger Games might be there or Jurassic World or TPOTC. HG in particular sort of came out of nowhere to pull a $150M+ opening. JW came out of nowhere to take the OW weekend which I don't think was on anyone's radar to happen.

back in 2012 we did not have robust tracking. Jeffrey wells used to provide NRG numbers. I think Industry data had it at 80-90m OW if I am not wrong. we can go back to the movie thread to confirm it.

But now almost all theaters have reserved seating and so tracking is way better. Predicting 70m for it 2 days before release seem flabbergasting. just wait for deadline thread on Friday morning where Rival studios will provide a more accurate projection of what it can do. I think 2x the trade projection is happening :-)

Looks like strong starts overseas too.

Here's a crazy stat, if Minecraft pulls a $134M+ OW (past Batman 2022), it will only be WB's 2nd film to do so in the last 9 years (aside from Barbie in 2023's $162M).

Feel like we are going to get another massive overperformance from a WB film in a month with Final Destination. They also have Sinners next week so will be a massive month and a half for them.

So ... its THIRD film to do so.

Ok second film to do $135M+ in the last 9 years for WB.

we should track its OS run here. OS gross is 144m. Japan and Korea are opening end of the month.



Most amazing is Poland where it broke the OW record of all time. Almost 1m admits.

Current top 10 courtesy StarLord@BOT


 

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So now looking to see 3 films overperform expectations this month.

Cumulative gross from April 1-9: $262,170,087

Minecraft Perhaps another $200M this month.
Sinners +$80M (in month)
King of Kings +$80M (in month)

With in month grosses from these three and cumulative gross so far looking at $622M. Add in other April films and other grosses from holdovers and could reach $700M+ for April. Great considering March missed $400M.