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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11556
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Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
What would happen if Ken and Mrs. Oppenheimer decide they want their OWN movie to star in as leads?
We'll see in March 2024 when The Fall Guy is getting released. Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling star. Directed by David Leitch who made the original John Wick, Deadpool 2, Hobbs and Shaw and Bullet Train. He's also a previous stuntman and this movie is a stuntman action drama.
Could be a bigger hit as the follow up movie for two stars at the forefront of 2023's biggest movie moment.
Does The Fall Guy benefit at all here? Feel like there will be lots of goodwill to each from moviegoers on this one. It's a thriller based on the 1980s show.
It's budget was estimated at $125M in fall 2020 so probably will be at least $175M by next year considering Covid.
Last edited by O on Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Jul 21, 2023 11:10 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32117 Location: the last free city
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - March 2024
I remember watching the original show in the 80’s I didn’t know they were making a movie. SWEET!
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Fri Jul 21, 2023 11:16 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - March 2024
Barbie and Oppenheimer will have no effect whatsoever on this film.
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Sat Jul 22, 2023 4:25 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11556
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - March 2024
The Super Bowl ad really didn't do much for me. Really a toss up and will need to be exceptional quality IMO to be a hit. Also is giving me Argylle vibes.
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Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:54 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22697 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - March 2024
The SB ad was too try hard IMO. Seems to be a middling performer at best.
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Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:36 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - March 2024
I'd be surprised if this does well. Feels like something that will do sub-70m. It does have a good date but we'll see.
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Mon Feb 12, 2024 12:41 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - March 2024
I feel like bullet train numbers at minimum shouldn't be difficult
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Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:45 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22697 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - March 2024
I think $100-$120m is achievable - though that's fairly lacklustre for a summer opener.
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Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:23 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38120
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - March 2024
I think it'd have been more fun with Gosling x2 instead of casting ATJ as the real movie star. The relationship between him and Blunt is pretty similar to Anyone But You so I guess that could help it.
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Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:52 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11556
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
First reactions coming from SXSW seem great.
One saying it is a blend of Tropic Thunder, Lethal Weapon and Fletch and Gosling is even better in this than he is in Barbie. Another it's a crowdpleaser. Lots of great action. Great chemistry between the stars which seemed obvious at the Oscars.
Maybe after Anyone But You revived romcoms we'll get action comedies back with a vengence if this takes off.
I also think shifting a film from March to first weekend of May is a ballsy move of confidence on the studio's part. They wouldn't put a clunker (cough Argyle) there.
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Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:37 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6180
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
Presales started today and its probably way too early for this. Not much action so far. But that means nothing. Seems crowd pleasing with a great cast. I am hoping it has great reviews and breaks out big close to release.
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Wed Mar 13, 2024 1:13 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
Starts at 90% RT with 7.8/10 avg rating. Reminds me of the Lost City, but better reviews.
Seems like it should do at least 30m OW, since the reviews are decent. Could push 40m if there's a pent up demand for movies after a light April.
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Thu Mar 14, 2024 12:21 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38120
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
Not sure why there's reviews already, but nice to see they delivered quality wise
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Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:23 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
Shack wrote: Not sure why there's reviews already, but nice to see they delivered quality wise Premiered at SXSW.
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Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:49 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
New trailer is much better imo. Looking forward to it now.
I think with good buzz it could open in the 30s. Anything over 40m would be great.
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Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:38 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22697 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
It should be able to open to $40m.
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Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:13 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32117 Location: the last free city
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
Should easily open to $50 million +
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Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:38 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38120
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:10 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11556
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
The new trailer is great most importantly feels nothing like Argylle.
Seems like an all around fun movie vs one of those our movie is so smart ones that don't tend to do well.
Also, did I see a cameo from Adam Sandler in this trailer?! They guy in the green at the club.
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Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:42 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
If I’m not mistaken, anything over 30m would be the second biggest opening for a completely original screenplay since the pandemic after Nope. So anything over 30m should be a win.
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Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:28 am |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21647 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
zwackerm wrote: If I’m not mistaken, anything over 30m would be the second biggest opening for a completely original screenplay since the pandemic after Nope. So anything over 30m should be a win. Fall guy is not original, its an adaptation of a tv series. If Fall Guy is an original screenplay (I used to watch the TV show, I think Majors is even listed to cameo in the movie) then the list would be: Barbie- 162 million Eras- 93 million Oppenheimer- 82 million Five Night at Freddy's- 80 million Uncharted- 44 million Nope- 44 million Wonka- 39 million Jungle Cruise-35 million Elvis- 31 million The Lost City- 30.5 million Megan- 30.4 million Bullet Train- 30.3 million I think anything above 35 million would be a more than good start. Gosling definitely has some Barbie Goodwill going into it so I'm hoping 40-50 million.
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Sun Apr 14, 2024 11:28 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38120
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
I forgot why Deadpool isn't in the usual first week of May or last week of April spot. Was it the strike?
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Sun Apr 14, 2024 12:13 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
Shack wrote: I forgot why Deadpool isn't in the usual first week of May or last week of April spot. Was it the strike? Yes.
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Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:33 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
Thegun wrote: zwackerm wrote: If I’m not mistaken, anything over 30m would be the second biggest opening for a completely original screenplay since the pandemic after Nope. So anything over 30m should be a win. Fall guy is not original, its an adaptation of a tv series. If Fall Guy is an original screenplay (I used to watch the TV show, I think Majors is even listed to cameo in the movie) then the list would be: Barbie- 162 million Eras- 93 million Oppenheimer- 82 million Five Night at Freddy's- 80 million Uncharted- 44 million Nope- 44 million Wonka- 39 million Jungle Cruise-35 million Elvis- 31 million The Lost City- 30.5 million Megan- 30.4 million Bullet Train- 30.3 million I think anything above 35 million would be a more than good start. Gosling definitely has some Barbie Goodwill going into it so I'm hoping 40-50 million. Wow I had no idea you’re right that it’s based on a show.
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Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:35 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22697 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Fall Guy Predictions - May 2024
So many bloggers and podcasters also didn't realise it was a TV show.
I used to watch it as a kid as well. In the era of Charlie's Angels, Six Million Dollar Man, Airwolf etc
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Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:03 pm |
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