I really hope they choose to delay the D+ release for Elemental in Japan because I think it genuinely could do well if given the breathing room since its performance across the globe had shown good audience reception and strong legs for it which bodes well for Japan. Maybe not blockbuster number, but I think something like ¥2.5 to 3 billion total for it would be a solid win for Disney/Pixar after years of disastrous result in the market.

Maybe the way it's holding in the US (and wherever else) will postpone that September Disney+ release that was mentioned in here.

Taking into account that last Sat. was a discount day (and adding improving holds this weekend by ~5-10% because of that), most films saw fair drops around 30% or so this weekend. A couple/few closer to 35% or so.

Indiana Jones and Tokyo Revengers repeat at #1/2.

Pretty slow weekend which sets the stage for How Do You Live? over the holiday weekend next week to kick off Summer Vacation, so fingers crossed we see something big from the near total mystery final (likely) theatrical film from Miyazaki and Ghibli.

Seems like 14b is out for Mario.

I just heard there's a movie opening on the same day as Elemental, and it's Shin-Chan 3d.

Is it expected to be a big movie?

I thought the other Crayon Shin-Chan movies weren't all that big at the box office.

Well... I think ~¥13.5b has been the end goal for a while now, but some stronger weekend holds could have made ¥14b possible.

It's not completely done, as Summer Vacation begins next week so its dailies will improve greatly, but maybe a little too late in the run to provide a significant bump. If Toho-Towa keeps it playing wide enough throughout summer and Obon Festival, it could crawl to ¥14b.

Going to be a photo finish I think between it and Detective Conan which also looks headed for ¥13.5b. Conan did have an unusually strong hold this weekend (its Friday was even up vs last week), so Toho might be giving it a push to ensure it stays above Mario, or to get it above the batch of films at that ¥13.5b mark already. Toho has also given the recent Conan films very late expansions for a one or two week period that we haven't seen here yet.

Crayon Shin-chan 3D shouldn't really impact it if it behaves like past films in the franchise. Its audience is largely set in stone every year. However, if it receives more casual attention that Stand By Me, Doraemon did, it could provide some competition for casual family audiences.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and other films also open the first weekend of August. (It's the weekend before Obon Festival, so that weekend and the couple before it are crowded.)

And, of course, everything could wind up in the shadow of How Do You Live? which opens this upcoming weekend. It remains to be seen how big (or not) this film will be, but if it's big, it'll put some pressure on everything else this summer since theaters aren't likely to move it from their biggest screens.

Still, it's rare for films to hurt each other in Japan, and mid-July through late-August is typically jampacked with many blockbusters or otherwise notable films. Summer Vacation begins the third week of July and lasts through the end of August, and then there's Obon Festival in the second week of August. It's the strongest six-week period of the year at the box-office in Japan, so everyone tries to get in on it.

Thankfully, a bunch of notable films can co-exist perfectly fine here. There's not much crossover appeal between anything, really, so it becomes more of a competition for seating/showings than a competition for audiences. So, if anything, it can just limit what a film can do in a single day vs overall. And this is especially true during major holiday periods like Obon Festival which Elemental opens during.

The First Slam Dunk will make it to August.
https://slamdunk-movie.jp/news/2023071001.html

I see some giveaway mentions there too.

They're probably going to push it to ¥15 billion. The upcoming Summer Vacation dailies beginning next week will help too. If Toei decides to keep it playing through August, it'll be a rare film that managed to play wide through ALL three major holiday periods (New Year, Golden Week, and Obon Festival). I can't actually think of the last one to do it? Other films have played equally as long or longer, but they missed one of the major holiday periods during their wide release.

Here are some close calls off the top of my head (within 3 months in wide release of playing during all 3 major periods):

Your Name. - Missed Obon Festival by 2 weeks (opened just after it).
Top Gun 2 - Missed Golden Week by a month (opening just after it).
Demon Slayer - Missed Obon Festival by 1.5 months.
Suzume - Missed Obon Festival by 2.5 months.

Bohemian Rhapsody is the only one I can think of that I need to check on. I don't recall if it was still playing wide when Obon Festival rolled around during its run, but I don't think it was.

Obviously hugely impressive if Slam Dunk gets to ¥15 billion, but you can also argue it'll be the only ¥15 billion earner that, arguably, needed the push. This isn't intended to bring down its performance in any way, either. Its legs these past... 4 months or so of its release have been crazy strong, among the strongest ever for a film playing up to/over the half-year mark.

Nice cross promotion.

I like those collabs Cruise does in Japan. He had something with Uma Musume last year as well. Embracing local properties is a good way to stay relevant.

Two more days until How Do You Live? opening day

Reservations are looking good for Friday. I haven't checked many places yet, but encouraging sales from the few locations I did check earlier.

I'll have Studio Ghibli's BO History posted here later. The Wind Rises was sort of viewed as a "weak" way for Miyazaki to go out on, so hoping How Do You Live? is the fitting swan song for him and (likely) Ghibli too.

How Do You Live? opens this Friday. It's the first Studio Ghibli theatrical release since 2014, so 9 years ago, unless you count the small release 2016's The Red Turtle which was a co-production with France and was a very limited release.

I thought it was common knowledge, but after seeing comments this year about wanting Studio Ghibli to take on The Legend of Zelda for Nintendo..., but Studio Ghibli closed their film production department in 2014. And many of their staff and animators went on to form Studio Ponoc in 2015, which is effectively the studio successor to Studio Ghibli.

Miyazaki came out of retirement in 2017 to begin work on How Do You Live?, and it's a Studio Ghibli production..., but this is very likely going to be the only exception assuming it is indeed Miyazaki's final film.

Studio Ghibli Box-Office History

OPENINGS:
¥1.483 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 - Howl's Moving Castle (Hayao Miyazaki, Nov. 2004)
¥1.094 billion ($9.6 million) / 810,000 - Spirited Away (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2001)
¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 - Ponyo (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2008)
¥960.9 billion ($9.8 million) / 747,454 - The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2013)
¥907.5 million ($7.9 million) / 672,696 - Tales from Earthsea (Goro Miyazaki, July 2006)
¥895.6 million ($10.3 million) / 680,190 - Arrietty (Hiromasa Yonebayashi, July 2010)
¥715.0 million ($6.1 million) / 540,000 - Princess Mononoke (Hayao Miyazaki, July 1997)
¥394.1 million ($3.5 million) / 328,007 - The Cat Returns (Hiroyuki Morita, July 2002)
¥387.5 million ($4.9 million) / 296,006 - From Up on Poppy Hill (Goro Miyazaki, July 2011)
¥378.9 million ($3.7 million) / 285,234 - Memories of Marnie (Hiromasa Yonebayashi, July 2014)
¥284.3 million ($2.9 million) / 222,822 - The Tale of Princess Kaguya (Isao Takahata, Nov. 2013)

TOTALS:
¥31.68 billion ($261.2 million) / 24.28 million - Spirited Away (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2001)
¥20.18 billion ($173.7 million) / 14.98 million - Princess Mononoke (Hayao Miyazaki, July 1997)
¥19.60 billion ($190.0 million) / 15.50 million - Howl's Moving Castle (Hayao Miyazaki, Nov. 2004)
¥15.50 billion ($156.0 million) / 12.87 million - Ponyo (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2008)
¥12.02 billion ($123.5 million) / 9.72 million - The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2013)
¥9.25 billion ($111.9 million) / 7.58 million - Arrietty (Hiromasa Yonebayashi, July 2010)
¥7.84 billion ($65.3 million) / 6.18 million - Tales from Earthsea (Goro Miyazaki, July 2006)
¥6.46 billion ($54.4 million) / 5.50 million - The Cat Returns (Hiroyuki Morita, July 2002)
¥4.46 billion ($57.8 million) / 3.55 million - From Up on Poppy Hill (Goro Miyazaki, July 2011)
¥4.45 billion ($32.5 million) / 3.50 million - Porco Rosso (Hayao Miyazaki, July 1992)
¥4.05 billion ($40.3 million) / 3.30 million - Pom Poko (Isao Takahata, July 1994)
¥3.53 billion ($34.0 million) / 2.81 million - Memories of Marnie (Hiromasa Yonebayashi, July 2014)
¥2.85 billion ($29.3 million) / 2.08 million - Whisper of the Heart (Yoshifumi Kondo, July 1995)
¥2.64 billion ($18.2 million) / 2.15 million - Kiki's Delivery Service (Hayao Miyazaki, July 1989)
¥2.38 billion ($23.2 million) / 1.99 million - The Tale of Princess Kaguya (Isao Takahata, Nov. 2013)
¥1.87 billion ($11.4 million) / 2.16 million - Only Yesterday (Isao Takahata, July 1991)
¥790 million ($7.1 million) / 760,000 - My Neighbors the Yamadas (Isao Takahata, July 1999)
¥760 million ($3.4 million) / 910,000 - Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind (Hayao Miyazaki, Mar. 1984)
¥590 million ($4.6 million) / 800,000 - My Neighbor Totoro/Grave of the Fireflies [Double Feature] (Hayao Miyazaki, Isao Takahata, Apr. 1988)
¥580 million ($3.7 million) / 770,000 - Castle in the Sky (Hayao Miyazaki, Aug. 1986)

So, what is How Do You Live??

What we know:

-Opens this Friday (7/14)
-Director, Screenwriter (Hayao Miyazaki, of course)
-Producer (Toshio Suzuki, of course)
-Composer (Joe Hisashi, of course)
-Runtime (124 minutes)
-Rating (G) *PG equivalent compared to the US
-Title taken from the 1937 novel of the same name, but it is NOT an adaptation of this novel. It's assumed, I think, that Miyazaki took the idea/theme (or simply title) of the novel and created an original story from there.

And that is IT. It's a mystery what this film is beyond that basic release information above. There was a teaser poster released last year, but it's quite abstract and gives nothing away whatsoever. There's been no images, no footage (trailers), no synopsis, no casting, no reviews (I don't think?), etc.

Moviegoers will be going in blind this weekend otherwise.

Also, while we don't know the budget yet, there's a very high chance this will be the most expensive production in Japan history.

Even if they had not close the studio in 2014 they still couldn't do Legend of Zelda because the studio was already involve with Ni no Kuni.
But maybe a very very small short animated sequence is possible, like Star Wars' Baby Yoda.

Yeah.

Also, it should be safe to assume flight of some kind (character/creature with wings or flying capability, a flight device like a broom or glider, a plane perhaps, or something else) will be featured in the film either as a main component or in a key scene/sequence. Miyazaki loves flight/flying, and it's been featured in all but one of his films (Ponyo) in the past. Or did Ponyo also have a flight sequence? It's been a while since I've seen it.

Ponyo had water sequences that resembled flight, especially at the end.

I'd pay for a Ni No Kuni movie for sure. The puns in that game are top notch. "Have a rook around" says the raven shopkeeper.

I don't remember anything "flight-like" in Mononoke

I don't know if there will be flight scenes (it feels likely, considering the teaser poster is, well, a bird), but I do think we won't be getting planes? The Wind Rises kinda was the culmination of Miyazaki's love-hate relationships with (war) planes. So I'm not sure he has anything else to tell about them.

You're both right! Haha. So just Mononoke. Makes me wonder why he didn't have a flight-inspired scene or maybe some sort of flying spirit or guardian in that one now. Maybe it just didn't make sense anywhere.

How exciting! Looking forward to the first numbers. Hope they're huge.

Should at worst take #2 but possibly #1 I think. Not really sure it beats SA on satsun only but the extra day should be enough.

Presales are a bit uneven with some very strong locations and some meh ones, but overall seems pretty good. I also noticed some key locations like Shinjuku have it basically playing ONLY on plf screens, so I expect a pretty high atp.

How Do You Live? will released tomorrow! It seems like there's also no red carpet event and no early screening for press and critics.

Perhaps it has to do with the fact that it takes place in a world that is just entering its industrial revolution and is about the the end of of the pre industrial revolution era where nature was still king.