It's never too early.

Looks like Air and Viola Davis could be the first Oscar candidates here. Two more weeks until release.

If Mario makes $$$ and wins the year, going to hard not to give it the animated Oscar too for how big it gets unless a critically acclaimed animated movie comes out.

Air has a decent chance to get into the 6-10 range

Past Lives is an already critically acclaimed movie with asian actors that has strong chance at nomination

I think Killers of the Flower Moon is overall frontrunner as its native subject matter gives it the extra juice in this climate compared to if it was just an all white male gangster movie. But it wouldn't have the underdog story like recent winners.

I think an interesting play for them could be pushing DeNiro for supporting actor. I think a career celebration could resonate as it will have been 43 years since he won an Oscar for Raging Bull for best actor (also one Best Supporting for The Godfather II in 1974).

Raging Bull was his 14th film. Moon will be his 103rd!

It worked wonders for JLC and I feel like DeNiro has been much more prolific the last 43 years. Almost like Streep got for Thatcher after a long time without any wins.

By the time the next Oscars comes around Air will be forgotten.

The oscars found a good way to balance nominating movies that people actually watched without just being a populust (not a typo) contest like the grammys have become.

Hopefully they keep up the trend and we see big things for Oppenheimer and Dune 2.

I think Air gets in. Davis gets supporting actress nom and possible win as a makeup for snubbing Woman King last year.

Air is not having nearly the impact or hype of EEAAO. I think it will be snubbed in all categories

I don't think anything will have the acclaim of EEAAO this year. That was some serious ass-kickery at the oscars.

Air really seemed to disappear into thin "air." (You know I was going to go there).

Maybe if IJ5 is really good Harrison Ford can get a career nod? He's got one nod over his entire career for Witness and that was 38 years ago. Probably a stretch but who knows.

So even less than two months later we can see that my feeling was correct about Air not being in contention come Oscar season.

I'm feeling DeNiro has a strong chance to win next year. Feels like he hasn't been in an awards role like this and playing a villain is going to resonate a lot more than The Irishman. Martin + Leo + DeNiro would be a big legacy celebration play to give it to DeNiro 43 years after his last win for Raging Bull. Would bring him up to 3 if it happens. Kind of like Streep for The Iron Lady type campaign would be effective.

Some of the reviews are calling this one of DiCaprio's best performances.

That's not saying much. Apart from Gilbert Grape he's always the same.

Barbie could get an Adapted Screenplay nod if it's truly great. Actress nom for Margot a long shot maybe?

Spider-verse seems like a near lock for a nomination for best animated film and likely win unless something really stands out. Given the critical, audience and box office reception seems like it has a fair chance for a best picture nod too.

I loved Past Lives but not sure about its Oscar prospects. Maybe Screenplay and acting noms? If the awards season is weak maybe it'll manage to get a few.

Robbie feels like she could become a frontrunner if Barbie delivers. The entire movie anchors on her and she was involved behind the camera as well. If the box office is there going to be hard not to give it to her and also with the Academy pandering for ratings right up their ally too to support a movie trending non-stop on social media with young people.

I went back on the data, and think we've only had a best actress winner in a $150M+ film twice ever. Once with Stone with La La Land and the big one with Bullock and Blind Side with $256M. The box office pretty much became a runaway train for Bullock in her campaign.

For men, Joaquin did it for the Joker ($335M), Malek with BR ($200M+), Revenant ($184M), Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln ($180M+), Crowe in Gladiator ($180M+), Hanks for Gump ($329M), Rain Man ($173M) from 1975 on.

A woman anchoring a possible $300M+ (unadjusted) blockbuster and taking home the best actress Oscar is something that's never been done before. Would be an interesting narrative and the sheer size of the cast involved too as an ensemble will definitely play well in the acting group with Robbie as leader.

If the summer indeed becomes the summer of Barbie like it looks like it could, feels very much like a Hanks Forrest Gump type award recognition. He won the year before but the sheer scale and impact of the movie and role among the public was just too big to ignore.

Barbie isn't getting nominated. Don't be silly. And while she's the "lead", the whole film seems to anchor on making Ken the butt of every joke. I don't see how this film gets top accolades. But I'm not surprised the idea raises its head on KJ. Happens every year.

If he's supporting Gosling would probably have a better chance of winning than Robbie.

Barbie definitely has a shot at screenplay, tech noms, and even acting noms if the field ends up not that competitive

I don't know about how it is globally but Barbie just seems to be permeating all across pop culture now in North America from a hype perspective. Will it live up to it? Not sure but this doesn't feel like just another blockbuster right now.

Actress is the one category that Flower Moon won't be a huge favorite in. But there's no way we're going two years in a row without a black person winning. Fantasia in The Color Purple seems like an easy way to go. Diana Degarmo really needs to step her acting game up though. She can't be the only contestant from American Idol season 3 without an oscar!

Actually it's still possible Gladstone is lead actress instead of supporting (I'd probably guess the latter though)

DiCaprio for 2nd Oscar and De Niro for 3rd with Gladstone winning the category she's in feels right, but it would make Killers of the Flower Moon SO dominant. Lately it's been all about the underdog that comes up at the end and beats the Killer of the Flower Moon of its year.

She was the lead in the book, but the trailer definitely made her seem like a supporting character. That would actually work out better overall so Viola Davis can win supporting for Air. She was terrific and I still think Amazon is gonna push Air back into the mix when the award season comes around.

Taraji P Henson would also make sense as supporting actress winner