Oscar campaigns usually start in September so we could start seeing some heavy candidates in 4 months for next Oscars!

Feel like West Side Story is going to be a dominant player. It's first trailer dropped during the previous Oscars so feel like it's already started its campaign.

Who do you think will dominate next year?

Something we have never heard of yet.

couple things to note:

1) Four big musicals based off three big properties with big names attached: In The Heights (LMM), Tick Tick Boom (LMM), Dear Evan Hansen (Julianne Moore/Amy Adams), and West Side Story (Speilberg). My bet is that the former stuff don't make it in WSS gets to be the sole musical contender which helps it a lot; but if one of the other stuff sneak in then I don't think any of them will win anything.

2) The tech categories will be VERY competitive. Matrix 4 and Dune both seem to be the early front runners and both will likely be incredibly impressive productions that will make it hard to choose. Though I won't completely sleep on the MCU's Eternals...

3) Speaking of which, the delay of Eternals will be boosted now by the fact that Chole Zhao is not some unknown but a BD winner. With her and Jolie involved, I wouldn't be shocked if it ends with a lot of nods, picks up a lot of tech wins, and flirts with potentially winning as folks clamor for the Oscars to be more populist. Of course, this is completely dependent on it being a genuinely great film which is a massive TBD

4) Bradley Cooper has two major films (PTA's film and GDT's film) and seems likely to get a nod for at least one of them

5) Ridley Scott may get a BD legacy win for House of Gucci or the Last Duel

6) the likely BP winner is probably something that doesn't have a release date yet

i actually think this will be one of the hardest award seasons to predict (which is saying a lot given my record).

you have a lot of films that got delayed due to COVID so will see way more potential contenders than usual i think. But more importantly, I think the macro-situation will make things really hard to predict. I do think the ratings of this years Oscars and the lack of impact of this awards season will create a push to nominate populist/mainstream films. I wouldn't be shocked if one of Dune, Matrix 4, or Eternals gets a BP nod. I think if WSS becomes a mega hit, it can be a BP frontrunner. I think we could have a Avatar vs. Hurt Locker type situation again but unlike 2009, I would favor the blockbuster over the indie/arthouse film.

also, because of the Chadwick/Viola loss, we will not have had a black Best Actor/Actress winner since 2006/2002. I wouldn't be shocked if theres an #OscarSoWhite push again for these categories.

on the flip side, the Best Director has only had one white man win since 2011. I think this will be a return to the norm, with Ridley Scott probably an early frontrunner for one of his films as I think the legacy aspect of his career can become a big story.

They will be going for ratings in this one.

The only thing I'm feeling is that an uplifting film will win best picture and not overly dark movie.

Life has been so heavy the last year. I could see something uplifting resonate with an Academy and public that is ready to turn the page and start a new roaring 20s.

Wonder if this Gucci film will be good. If it's at least well acted I think Gaga will get nominated again, which is nuts.

^ That's a big IF and assumption. Gaga's aura has muted last couple of years after her first nomination which might help her in the long run if she keeps delivering high quality movies but I don't see her getting nominated soon.

Gaga should be good for a nomination, though I don't see a win

If Joe Wright wins Best Picture and Director for Cyrano, will David come back?