I am not using last Saturday as comp but the 4th Sat, its currently 48% down from 4th Saturday from last few hours. If it stay like that, it will reach around 230k usual location or 335k overall IMO.

It's going to improve over the day and do better than that. Imo an ideal drop over its 4th Saturday would be a 36% drop as that would correspond to two consecutive 20% drops.

Unless some correction is done 215-225k seems like it. About where what we expected in morning.

SA still lock, no?

Doraemon is definitely going to be moved out of those screens...jesus, doesn't even look like it'll pull half of what DS pulls on its 6th saturday.

Any movie will pale for several months in comparison with DS best to only compare it with its own potential.

Of course it is. Assuming you mean the re-release included number, Demon Slayer only needs ~¥6 billion more to pass Spirited Away. After a ~¥1 billion weekend, that's 100% locked with holiday support still to come.

SA is locked for weeks now.

At this point I feel anyone asking that question is just adding for fun. There is just no way they are serious about that record with this kind of performance and posting record breaking numbers almost everyday.

Being on BoT, I have seen such question for other films as well. These are mostly serious.

@corpse may be put it in heading.

No matter how bad it drops, it may start dropping 35-40% a week from here, thanks to Christmas it will still cross SA.

what about the 35B yen milstone now?

Ah yes BoT has those but mostly those queries are for US Box office. Japan works completely differently

I believe the lowest grossing movies with a 1 billion opening weekend are franchise movies like One Piece Strong World or Yôkai Watch 2.0, with around a 4.5-5 multiplier. It basically needs to do slightly better than the worst performing movies in terms of longevity to surpass SA, and its legs so far suggest that it will.

A lot of that will depend on the boost it will get during the holiday season. It's on track for 31B-33B range right now. The good news is that it's confirmed to be on theaters till March 2021 so there is a very good chance for 35B mark but again it's too early to give a projection that far.

Now that's a number it will need regular holds, I am projecting it will reach there but can change.

If the COVID effect is mostly on weekend we might see good drop on next weekdays, but still need to wait

Is the news about this coming new year holiday will be 2 weeks true? christmas week + 2 new year holiday weeks. Or it is still just an idea from the gov?
@Corpse can you confirm?

Lots of new discussion

First: Good job getting closer on Saturday charlie and ymblcza.
Second: Yes, it's still beating Spirited Away, still, as long as theaters are open. If they go back to 50% capacity on the weekend, that will slow it down, but it'd get there.
Third: While it hasn't been implemented yet, it's expected that New Year will be extended an extra week this year, yes. This is because of how the New Year holiday and following Bank Holidays occur over the weekend itself this upcoming year, meaning travel congestion is a big concern come that Monday with COVID. And with cases rising, this is almost surely going to be accepted soon.

I don't have as much time this morning to do too much on here until later this evening, so a few things:

Demon Slayer: Lower Saturday than I was predicting, but it's still a good number. It's still 80-90% as strong as the first Saturdays of many major openers, and this is its sixth Saturday. It'll see a bump tomorrow because of the holiday Monday (see below on a holiday Monday's impact on Sunday), and will surpass Your Name. to become the #4 all-time film tomorrow. And then on Monday, it'll surpass Frozen to become the #3 all-time film and will be within striking distance of Titanic shortly afterward to become #2 all-time.

Stand By Me, Doraemon 2: It had very similar Saturday as this past August's release. This is...fine. At least it didn't come in lower. And it should have a bigger Sunday, so opening higher than it looks pretty good now. Not guaranteed, but it's more likely than not. Depending on the Sunday bump, and its average ticket price (thanks to its IMAX screens), it *might* get near ¥500 million for the weekend frame. Anything over the August release I'd consider a victory, but if it would manage to hit ¥500 million, I'd consider it a success. Lower than the first Stand By Me film, of course, but family films have struggled this year so it's in that "good enough' territory.

And lastly: Sundays before a holiday Monday. Sundays before a holiday Monday are often quite big, with most films experiencing nice increases when this happens. I don't have too much time to look up a lot of examples, but go back and look how Toy Story 4, Jurassic World 2, and Finding Dory did (and any other films that played with them). Those are some of the more recent big films that opened on a holiday Monday weekend and saw big gains on Sunday as a result. There are more examples, of course, just want everyone to know that tomorrow (today) should be quite strong.

Hope it sees a nice Sunday bump to put the weekend frame over HP1's 6th weekend and preferably ¥1 billion as well.

A drop a little more important than I imagined indeed but that is understandable with the rise of the cases of the corona, last Saturday which was inflated and the Doraemon release which brings a little conccurence to Demon Slayer, I hope that tomorrow and Monday will catch up on this Saturday a little less strongly

I heard that from the beginning of next week there will be restrictions in Japanese cinemas due to the corona virus, is that true? If this is true it should surely impact the box office but I hope it will not impact too strongly

So umm.. just checked the corona cases in Japan, and it's the highest it has ever been..

Do you guys have any info if maybe cinemas had anything to do with this third peak of corona cases in Japan? I mean it will certainly be an interesting case of study in the future, because I assume 100% of people in movie theaters in Japan wore their masks, so Idk it just seems like it'd be an interesting study to see just how effective masks are.

Also, did the Japanese government ever close cinemas? Because if cinemas were closed in March or whenever they were, I think they should probably close them right now. I don't think this would hinder the movie in the long run anyway.

At least Japan cases are way less than many countries so just hope that they would decrease and try to not lose hopes more people would die from suicide than Coronavirus in japan.

Bummer Saturday (not a disaster or anything, just on the low end of hopes). I will blame corona and no one will ever be able to prove me wrong