charlie jat is near my estimate (we're generally pretty close I think). It's not a 2% drop though. We've been discussing how last Friday was UNDER-estimated last week (and Tuesday OVER-estimated most likely), so the Fri.-Fri. drop is ~19/20%.

I'll post the revised numbers in the Daily Tracker in a few.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥290,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 215,000 *est.*
11/10 - Tues.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000 *est.*
11/11 - Wed.: ¥270,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 210,000 *est.*
11/12 - Thur.: ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million) / 135,000 *est.*
11/13 - Fri.: ¥260,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 190,000 *est.*

29-Day Cumulative Total: ¥21,678,611,650 ($206.9 million) / 16,268,943 *est.*

Three straight days of ~20% drops versus last week. Don't want to say it as a matter of fact, but the chances that it's begun to stabilize are pretty high, and what a strong % to stabilize around at this level of performance, as it begins its fifth weekend.

However, it's getting a boost this weekend due to the first of four scheduled giveaway events. Saturday reservations are pretty massive, definitely ahead of last Saturday, so this upcoming weekend is likely looking at a very small drop (think 15% or less) or may have potential to stay flat/see a slight increase.

Looking good

So that was yesterday, roughly 24 hours ago. So here are how the same key locations, in addition to a few more, are looking now on Saturday with ~7/8 hours before showings begin:

Toho Namba: 22 Showings [13 at 80% full; 5 at 50% full]
Toho Shinjuku: 27 Showings [1 Sold Out; 11 at 80% full; 5 at 50% full]
Toho Umeda: 23 Showings [2 at 80% full; 7 at 50% full]
Toho Nishinomiya: 22 Showings [1 at 80% full; 12 at 50% full]
Toho Ebina: 25 Showings [6 at 50% full]
Toho Ikebukuro: 15 Showings [6 at 80% full; 5 at 50% full]
Toho Sendai: 18 Showings [7 at 50% full]
Toho Kinshicho: 24 Showings [8 at 80% full; 5 at 50% full]

This is its FIFTH Saturday. Much, much stronger than last week, possibly on par with its second or third Saturday.

Looks like we’ll pick up a 9th biggest single day for Demon slayer after all. Really hope we can hit 10. Maybe even this Sunday, with promotional spillover?

I think Toho numbers in particular looks good because it is Toho Cinema Day tomorrow(14th of every month) but it should still hold well overall.

Yes, tomorrow is also Toho Cinemas Day (20-35% off general tickets).

All of MOVIX (22 locations) is 27% sold right now (~8 hours out).

上映日：11月14日(土)
作品名：劇場版「鬼滅の刃」　無限列車編 ＭＯＶＩＸの予約状況
ＭＯＶＩＸ仙台　　　　上映回数(11)　残(2151)　( 889/3062)　予約率:29%
新宿ピカデリー　　　　上映回数(12)　残(2206)　(1231/3503)　予約率:35%
ＭＯＶＩＸつくば　　　上映回数(15)　残(3384)　( 445/3924)　予約率:11%
ＭＯＶＩＸ宇都宮　　　上映回数(14)　残(3420)　(1647/5196)　予約率:32%
ＭＯＶＩＸ伊勢崎　　　上映回数(13)　残(2348)　( 864/3264)　予約率:26%
ＭＯＶＩＸさいたま　　上映回数(14)　残(2439)　(2742/5260)　予約率:52%
ＭＯＶＩＸ川口　　　　上映回数(11)　残(1422)　(1672/3161)　予約率:53%
ＭＯＶＩＸ三郷　　　　上映回数(17)　残(4147)　( 719/4957)　予約率:15%
ＭＯＶＩＸ柏の葉　　　上映回数(10)　残(2633)　( 382/3070)　予約率:12%
ＭＯＶＩＸ亀有　　　　上映回数(17)　残(3440)　(1636/5213)　予約率:31%
ＭＯＶＩＸ昭島　　　　上映回数(18)　残(4144)　( 646/4887)　予約率:13%
ＭＯＶＩＸ橋本　　　　上映回数(15)　残(2945)　(1376/4396)　予約率:31%
ＭＯＶＩＸ清水　　　　上映回数(15)　残(3362)　( 593/4045)　予約率:15%
ＭＯＶＩＸ三好　　　　上映回数(15)　残(3964)　( 749/4856)　予約率:15%
ＭＯＶＩＸ八尾　　　　上映回数(14)　残(2619)　(2182/4881)　予約率:45%
ＭＯＶＩＸ堺　　　　　上映回数(18)　残(4866)　( 771/5735)　予約率:13%
ＭＯＶＩＸあまがさき　上映回数(16)　残(3877)　( 861/4833)　予約率:18%
ＭＯＶＩＸ京都　　　　上映回数(14)　残(2178)　( 889/3153)　予約率:28%
ＭＯＶＩＸ倉敷　　　　上映回数(14)　残(1436)　(2348/3854)　予約率:61%
ＭＯＶＩＸ日吉津　　　上映回数(12)　残(2264)　(1048/3396)　予約率:31%
ＭＯＶＩＸ周南　　　　上映回数(12)　残(2664)　( 696/3432)　予約率:20%
大阪ステシネ　　　　　上映回数(15)　残(4349)　(1122/5579)　予約率:20%
※上記には字幕回含まず
通常回：(合計)　上映回数(312)　残(66258)　(25508/93657)　予約率:27%

Thank you, Yushiro (5ch) in Saitama (if you're reading this) for compiling this as usual.

For comparison, tomorrow's MOVIX reservations are 10.3% higher than last Saturday. Would have added that to the post above, but had some connection issues.

And clearly Toho is WAY up versus last Saturday (probably over 50%), so a Saturday increase is looking very likely.

Hope the momentum continue on Sunday too

That was based on last Friday number, which as many mentioned was wrong so...

Presales for sunday is looking at 80% of last week, i think the trend during Wed to Fri will continue

@Corpse, you said this Saturday could be higher than last Saturday ($8.3M) or even be on par with 2nd Saturday ($14.3M) or 3rd Saturday ($11.6M), how could Sunday be?

And when you say that this Saturday could be higher than last Saturday I want to believe it, but do you really think that it can be tied with the 3rd and especially the 2nd Saturday?

Because ok the estimates are strong, but sometimes that does not mean all

Bad or good news for Sunday? Anychance it will increase before Sunday start?

Second Saturday is probably over-reaching, but third Saturday is likely. We'll have to see though. It's not good to make claims that end up false, but its Saturday is currently aiming that high. Pre-sales for the day will be released in a few hours.

As for Sunday, it'll clearly benefit from the giveaway as well. 1.5 million are being given out, and if two-thirds or close to ends up being handed out on Saturday, then Sunday will probably have somewhere around 500,000 or so remaining.

And Sunday's are a bit harder to read in terms of pre-sales. I wouldn't expect a Sun.-to-.Sun. increase since some of the business is being syphered to Saturday this weekend, but it's probably still in for a strong hold. I don't want people somehow thinking 20% drops are bad. A 20% drop is never bad. They're great, and amazing when discussing numbers that are still this high. You have a film managing to compete with the biggest openings in its fourth and now fifth week in release. Think about that.

Personally I was thinking of a weekend around $11M- $12M, so whatever happens if this weekend manages to make figures around my forecasts I would be happy and even more so if it happens to exceed my expectations

Very good article here discussing where all the money this film is making and where it'll end up:

https://eiga.com/news/20201112/8/

The author is using ¥35 billion (I'm rounding this up to $350 million to make this easier work out) as a final projected total for his article. Note: This isn't a prediction, but since it's very likely to surpass Spirited Away, the next goal would to be that mark and it appears on track for a finish somewhere around there for now.

This money will be split between: 1. Theater Chains. 2. Distributor(s). 3. Production Companies.

1.) Theater Chains: The article notes that theaters get 50% of a film's earnings. So using ¥35 billion (~$350 million) as the projected total, theaters will be getting ¥17.5 billion (~$175 million). That leaves ¥17.5 million (~$175 million) more to be handed out, so where does that go?

2.) Distributors: The article notes that distributors receive 20% of a film's earnings after the theater share. In this case, that's ¥3.5 billion (~$35 million). Furthermore, since this film is a joint distribution between Toho and Aniplex, it'll be split between them, so both will receive ¥1.75 billion (~$17.5 million). But in Toho's case, they also own and operate Toho Cinemas. Therefore, they'll also get their share of the Theater Chain share discussed above based on what the film earned in their theaters. So after the distributor share is subtracted, we have ¥14 billion (~$135 million) remaining, so where does that go?

3.) Production Companies: In this films' case, there are three production companies (Aniplex, Shueisha, and ufotable). In rough terms, they will evenly split the remaining ¥14 billion (~$135 million), but only after the film's budget and marketing costs are removed from the equation. As the producer of the film itself, ufotable handled this and spent an estimated ¥700 million (~$7 million) on the budget (¥500 million) and marketing costs (¥200 million). That leaves the companies with ¥13.3 billion (~$128 million) to share. But we're not done subtracting from this total yet. Since ufotable is the studio that produced the film, they receive 10% of the profit from this point in the returns, meaning they earn ¥1.3 billon (~$13 million) as their production success fee. So from that alone, they've already earned back almost double what they spent on the budget and marketing of the film. That leaves ¥12 billion (~$115 million) remaining to be split based on investment shares, which is estimated to be 45% (Aniplex), 45% (Shueisha), and 10% (ufotable). So that's ¥5.4 billion (~$50-55 million) for Aniplex and Shueisha each, and another ¥1.2 billion (~$12 million) for ufotable (bringing their profit up to ¥2.5 billion (~$25 million), or 3.5x+ the budget and marketing costs now).

So in conclusion, assuming a ¥35 billion (~$350 million) finish, here's the approximate profit earnings:

¥17.5 billion (~$175 million) for Theater Chains
¥7.15 billion (~$70 million) for Aniplex (subsidiary of Sony)
¥5.4 billion ($50-55 million) for Shueisha
¥2.5 billion (~$25 million) ufotable
¥1.75 billion (~$17.5 million) + % share* from their owned cinema chain for Toho

*Toho Cinemas usually generate 30% or so nationwide, so that'd be about ¥5 billion (~$50 million) for their % share from the theater chain amount. So Toho's profit, as part of both the theater chain share and distributor share, would be near ¥7 billion (~$70 million) or so, maybe a little higher. That'd leave ¥12 billion (~$115 million) or so to be split between the other chains.

Highest Saturday Pre-Sales (2014-) [~50% of Market]

495,308 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *1st Saturday*
404,653 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *2nd Saturday*
260,329 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
257,536 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *3rd Saturday*
176,259 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *5th Saturday*
170,054 - Frozen II (2019) *1st Saturday*
164,961 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *4th Saturday*
138,795 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
134,399 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
133,265 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
126,032 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
117,302 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
116,563 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
114,570 - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
113,434 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
106,945 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
103,969 - Frozen II (2019) *2nd Saturday*
x94,641 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
x93,216 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) *1st Saturday*
x92,166 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
x91,384 - Weathering With You (2019)
x88,838 - Toy Story 4 (2019)
x85,557 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
x84,025 - Aladdin (2019)
x78,000 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) *2nd Saturday*

As expected from the high reservations going into the day, the pre-sales are above last Saturday's. Also, while it may not apply here since this film is so huge, pre-sales represent less of the daily sales the longer a film in in release in most cases, so that could be potentially even better news here.

And yes, aiming for the second Saturday was over-reaching. Let's see how close it gets to the third Saturday now.

Putting together a weekend prediction now, but I want to note a few things before doing so since some questions may come of it.

1. Saturday is a Toho Cinema Day (14th of each month), so tickets are discounted at their locations. So this will lower the average ticket price for the day, but not as much as a nationwide discount day or Ladies' day. I find lowering the average ticket price a film is at by 2/3% usually works well on these days, so I'll be doing this again here.

2. Sunday is typically bigger than Saturday, which has also been the case with this film over the past three weekends, but it's likely to be a bit weaker this weekend due to the giveaway event skewing business more toward Saturday this weekend. Sunday won't be weak by any means, it already has several marked showings at the busy locations, and will also benefit from the giveaway. Can it match or beat Saturday? Possibly, but it should see a slight dip versus Saturday.

So that's that. Prediction will be posted in about 30 minutes or so. I need to go back and add the USD totals to the Biggest Fifth Weekends/Five Week Totals list which will take some time.

Biggest Fifth Weekends/Five Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.550 billion ($14.8 million), -13%, ¥23.23 billion ($221.7 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *Weekend Prediction*
¥1.069 billion ($8.5 million), +10%, ¥10.52 billion ($83.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥890.0 million ($7.9 million), -06%, ¥13.26 billion ($109.3 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥888.9 million ($7.4 million), +16%, ¥10.47 billion ($87.7 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥862.5 million ($8.5 million), -20%, ¥11.16 billion ($108.8 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥851.2 million ($7.9 million), +13%, ¥9.94 billion ($92.3 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥841.0 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥834.5 million ($7.8 million), +47%, ¥7.50 billion ($70.4 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥789.1 million ($7.6 million), -17%, ¥9.86 billion ($94.2 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥782.5 million ($7.3 million), +44%, ¥6.68 billion ($62.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥756.6 million ($6.3 million), -18%, ¥9.69 billion ($80.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥698.9 million ($6.5 million), -20%, ¥8.56 billion ($79.0 million) - Aladdin (2019)
¥532.7 million ($5.0 million), -17%, ¥9.65 billion ($89.3 million) - Weathering With You (2019)
¥526.7 million ($4.3 million), -23%, ¥8.37 billion ($68.8 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥520.8 million ($4.3 million), -07%, ¥6.95 billion ($57.6 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥518.4 million ($5.6 million), +02%, ¥7.00 billion ($75.3 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥513.8 million ($4.7 million), -34%, ¥8.28 billion ($75.7 million) - Frozen II (2019)
¥505.1 million ($4.5 million), +02%, ¥4.39 billion ($38.9 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥504.1 million ($4.6 million), +10%, ¥4.55 billion ($42.4 million) - Zootopia (2016)

I'm predicting the weekend to be down about 10% (+10% on Saturday, -20% on Sunday), but the drop would be slightly more in gross (by that 2/3% I mentioned) due to Saturday being a Toho Cinemas Day. I don't want to jinx it, but so far I've UNDER-estimated every weekend. Let's see what happens this weekend!

So the animation studio would be earning between $20/25 million. That's pretty solid.
We'll have Unlimited Budget Works for a while.

I’m hoping for 900+750, but anything above 1.5B is of course insane (I N S A N E) for a 5th weekend.

Just keep the founder away from it...

What ever happened with him and the tax evasion mess? I heard he (they, ufotable) paid the money back, but haven't heard anything else regarding him or the studio over this issue.

Oh right, i'd forgotten about that.
I guess now the Japanese tax agency will keep both eyes on them...

It's easily going to take the biggest 6th and the biggest 7th weekend too, but I think biggest 8th weekend will be the first time it faces a real challenge. In fact I think Frozen will probably keep that record.

Corpse is still shying away from a bigger estimates. It's will hold sub-10% this weekend