It’s hard (very hard) for me to imagine any movie pulling a performance close to this zeitgeist, even from the same franchise. But I guess if they adapt the final manga arc as a movie to conclude maybe it could pull an Endgame to this Infinity

The market is known for sequels or follow-ups to phenomenon films dropping quite a bit (Howl's Moving Castle, Avatar, Frozen II, Weathering With You). None of those films disappointed, they're still among the biggest films ever (all top 20), but they had significant declines from their predecessors.

I'd expect something similar for the next Demon Slayer film. Of course, it's taken the term "phenomenon film" to another level, so it might be able to counter some of the drop-off in total, but it's going to be very hard to replicate this scenario again.

Also, they might even do two other films. This movie is about a third of the way into the story. They have enough material to adapt a half-way point arc in addition to the final arc. And the best strategy is to release however many other films they do following the anime adaptation of the arc(s) before it as a lead in again like with the first film. Here is the template that I posted a couple weeks back that they could be following now:

2019: Season One (26 episodes), which adapted volumes 1-6
2020: First Movie, which adapted volumes 7-8
2021: Season Two (24-26 episodes), adapting volumes 9-13
2022: Second Movie, adapting volumes 14-15
2023: Season Three (24-26 episodes), adapting volumes 16-21
2024: Third (Final) Movie, adapting the final volumes 22-23

Note that I haven't finished the series (up though volume 12, but ordered the next few last week), so some arcs/volumes may be better suited as a film/anime than others.

I looked at the statistics a bit on mimorin, even if I don't really understand Japanese, Sunday seems to have started off pretty well (obviously a big drop in entries compared to last Sunday), maybe the ¥1,8 billion that charlie jat predicted are achievable, to see over the rest of the day

@Corpse, I have a question, how do you see Demon Slayer's legs now ? Drops similar to those in Frozen 2 from the same period last year ? Or more or less important drops?

What is the average ticket price for normal day?
And the % for the usual locations on the weekend is 77% ??

It's honestly probably going to have better legs than Frozen 2 from this weekend on. Frozen 2 had average/poor weekdays by releasing in the off-season, which can be risky for a film that skews too young. Demon Slayer's weekdays have been good, and while we already know this, means its appealing to a broad audience. And now with special giveaways every other weekend though the end of the year, its probably going to remain pretty strong over the weekends.

And yes, Sunday is looking good. Just remember that Sunday is generally bigger than Saturday in the market, so it'll gain a bit lead throughout the morning/afternoon before slowing down more in the evening and stalling at night since its before the weekdays. It's going to be a big day, I don't doubt, just be careful projecting anything until later in the day since the morning/afternoon sales are naturally much stronger on Sundays.

Both questions have various answers.

The average ticket price greatly depends on what sort of audience a film is bringing out. In Demon Slayer's case, it's a broad audience that skews just slightly toward students/young adults (slightly). The national average is a little above ¥1,300, and Demon Slayer has been averaging about ¥1,330, but it's different depending on the day.

Monday is usually lower because Aeon Cinemas has cheaper tickets.
Wednesdays are a lot lower for films attracting females since females get cheaper tickets.
Sundays are usually a tad lower (not much though) from being the preferred family outing day (children/students get discounts).

Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are above the average typically because there aren't any discounts offered outside of the standard types (like late-night showings, seniors, students, etc.).

********************

As for the usual locations.. it also depends. For Demon Slayer, it's been above 75% on the weekends, but it's closer to 67% on the weekdays. This is because the usual locations are largely theaters in urban prefectures, which stay open much later on the weekends thus driving their share higher versus the weekdays.

It also depends on the audience a film brings in as well. Not all films get the same share. Family films, for example, generally perform better in rural areas than other types of films, therefore the usual locations don't account for as high a share compared to a film mostly attracting adults. It can also vary by distributor a bit. Toei releases, for example, have a lower share at the usual locations than normal because they have theaters in more rural prefectures where their films perform really well at.

Corpse, the special giveaways and the fact that a new volume of Demon Slayer comes out in December will have an impact on the Demon Slayer box office, but do you think the impact will be quite significant or rather minimal ?

As for the sequels I do not think they will have the same level of success, I fully expect them to take #2, #3 OW positions but don't see them beating SA. This movie is aided by getting a whole lot of screens because there is nothing in theaters right now (specially Hollywood) and the fact that the theaters didn't have any "must see" movie months before this. The sequels will not have such benefits though it will be interesting to follow their runs, in terms of how close they get to Movie#1 and SA.

I'd imagine the giveaways will provide a decent boost since they guarantee ticket sales, as an admission is required to receive one. They'll certainly help with repeat viewings. Note that boost doesn't necessarily mean an increase on the weekends they're given out. Not saying it can't happen, it could, but I'd expect stronger holds these weekends instead (at least while the numbers are still so high). We'll know their impact next weekend with the first giveaway.

The release of the final volume is going to be very hyped next month, and while I believe it will benefit the movie a bit, it's not a guaranteed event to bring out new moviegoers/repeat viewers. The weekend that the final volume is released is also the weekend that the rebroadcast of the season one finale airs in primetime, which will bring out the anime-only audience who have been catching up each week.

Hopefully it can pass both Princess Mononoke and Harry Poter to enter the top 5 all time after this Sunday.

It will mostly miss that mark on Sunday but should easily happen on Monday. I do expect it to be #6 by Sunday though.

It'll pass both of them today.

It's nearly guaranteed unless the weekdays were lower than predicted because this weekend is certainly delivering. It technically passed Princess Mononoke on Saturday if you exclude its re-release which hasn't officially been included in its total. But if you want to include it, then it'll surpass it today instead. Same with the first Harry Potter.

Sunday is looking great. It can be tough to project Sunday's at this point sometimes because films can really stall out after 7/8pm, but I'd say it's on track for around 550,000 admissions at the usual locations, so perhaps near 725,000 overall for the day. That'd give it a fourth weekend of ~¥1.7 billion ($16 million+) and ~1.3 million admissions if Sunday reaches the mark.

Something wrong with the number happened? This Sunday, the numbers (of all movies) have been slowing down fast after just 5pm ....

Thinking ¥860mn Sunday and ¥1.66bn weekend (-34%). Total ¥20.28Bn ($193.6mn). Let's see what actuals are tomorrow.

For now thinking ¥3Bn 4th week, which keeps it on ¥35Bn route but ¥38Bn may be tough.

It need more than 20.30B yen to enter to the top 5 all time tho.... hopefully the actual mumber will make it pass the milestone....

That's what I was talking about on terms of #5 all time though hopefully it will see a better drop than that with actuals.

The programmers fixed Sunday. I wasn't on to see what was happening, but many seats were being marked as unsold when they were actually sold. But they fixed ir aftee 8, so all good.

Sunday still slowed down a lot at night, but managing a sub-50% drop (almost sub-45%) from a discount say is impressive. It's also up about 11/12% versus yesterday. That's not surprising (Sundays > Saturdays), bur it's further assurance of fine legs ahead.

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Weekend Admissions

Biggest Openers Since 2015:

Weekend Results (~70% of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
1,967,023/2,548,968 (77.2% capacity), [267/12,091] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020)
---1,739,509/2,400,067 (72.5% capacity), [267/11,618] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020) *2nd Weekend*
---1,542,124/2,289,348 (67.4% capacity), [267/11,140] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020) *3rd Weekend*
---920,920/2,117,220 (43.5% capacity), [267/10,015] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020) *4th Weekend*
886,099/2,078,835 (42.6% capacity), [267/7,389] - Frozen II (Nov., 2019)
748,438/1,436,072 (52.1% capacity), [258/4,368] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
703,128/1,299,917 (54.1% capacity), [249/3,625] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
697,121/1,487,446 (46.9% capacity), [263/5,175] - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)
676,886/1,200,412 (56.4% capacity), [240/3,324] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
621,123/1,051,181 (59.1% capacity), [231/3,415] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
583,307/1,626,823 (35.9% capacity), [251/6,355] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
572,042/1,043,666 (54.8% capacity), [230/2,936] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
569,497/1,392,147 (40.9% capacity), [236/5,431] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
564,449/1,416,549 (39.8% capacity), [261/4,673] - Weathering With You (July, 2019)
559,049/1,406,597 (39.7% capacity), [261/4,672] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
549,579/1,389,766 (39.6% capacity), [247/5,670] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
547,821/1,330,179 (41.2% capacity), [254/5,015] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
530,132/1,116,138 (47.5% capacity), [250/3,838] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
526,470/1,302,175 (40.4% capacity), [245/4,570] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
521,805/1,426,417 (36.6% capacity), [267/5,521] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dec., 2019)
494,190/1,298,579 (38.1% capacity), [231/4,461] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
477,529/1,048,231 (45.6% capacity), [261/4,552] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
436,267/x,908,420 (48.0% capacity), [218/2,520] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
429,097/x,903,746 (47.5% capacity), [221/3,049] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
427,077/x,913,713 (46.8% capacity), [229/2,643] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
413,446/1,823,898 (22.7% capacity), [258/6,439] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
408,053/x,969,280 (42.1% capacity), [235/3,141] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
407,419/1,271,559 (32.0% capacity), [252/4,010] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
398,627/1,101,595 (36.2% capacity), [257/3,337] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
395,204/1,150,630 (34.3% capacity), [254/3,559] - One Piece: Stampede (Aug., 2019)
385,119/x,998,768 (38.6% capacity), [240/2,966] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
371,995/1,021,926 (36.4% capacity), [237/3,331] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
370,390/1,515,394 (24.4% capacity), [243/5,111] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
364,228/x,947,797 (38.4% capacity), [262/4,025] - The Lion King (Aug., 2019)
344,292/1,394,229 (24.7% capacity), [236/4,683] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
342,594/1,196,457 (28.6% capacity), [259/4,113] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)
338,566/1,028,823 (32.9% capacity), [260/3,645] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
336,993/x,969,600 (34.8% capacity), [247/2,836] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
327,709/1,025,446 (31.9% capacity), [233/2,903] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
313,592/x,790,757 (39.7% capacity), [259/3,559] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (July, 2019)
311,497/x,841,015 (37.0% capacity), [252/3,307] - Avengers: Infinity War (Apr., 2018)

Bigger Fourth Weekend at the usual locations than any OPENING weekend from the past 5-years.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *est.*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,230,000,000 ($11.8 million) / 925,000 *est.*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 255,000 *est.*
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000 *est.*
11/06 - Fri.: ¥270,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 200,000 *est.*
11/07 - Sat.: ¥790,000,000 ($7.6 million) / 585,000 *est.*
11/08 - Sun.: ¥850,000,000 ($8.2 million) / 640,000 *est.*

24-Day Cumulative Total: ¥20,339,365,450 ($193.9 million) / 15,266,254 *est.*

Biggest Single-Days (Admissions) [1998-]

1,270,234 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Saturday)
1,239,752 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Sunday)
1,157,654 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Sunday)
1,140,390 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Sunday, Discount Day)
1,115,182 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Saturday)
~925,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Tuesday, Holiday)
910,507 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Friday, Opening Day)
887,893 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Saturday)
~800,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (First Saturday, Opening Day)
790,000 - Frozen II (Second Sunday, Discount Day)
~690,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (First Saturday, Opening Day, Discount Day)
~685,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (First Sunday)
~640,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Fourth Sunday)
~625,000 - Frozen II (First Saturday)
~625,000 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (First Saturday)
~620,000 - Toy Story 4 (First Sunday)
~605,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Monday)
~600,000 - Toy Story 4 (First Monday, Holiday)
600,000 - One Piece Film Z (First Saturday, Opening Day)
~590,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (First Sunday)
~585,000 - Frozen II (First Sunday)
~585,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Fourth Saturday)
~580,000 - Howl's Moving Castle (First Saturday, Opening Day)
~560,000 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (First Sunday)
~560,000 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (First Saturday)
~555,000 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (First Saturday)
~550,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Second Sunday)
545,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Monday)
540,000 - One Piece Film Z (First Sunday)
~540,000 - Frozen (Eighth Monday, Holiday)
~535,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Second Saturday)
~525,000 - Howl's Moving Castle (First Sunday)
~525,000 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Second Sunday)
-515,000 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (First Sunday)
510,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Friday)
505,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Wednesday)
~500,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (First Sunday)
~500,000 - Rookies (First Saturday, Opening Day)

~ Estimate.

Demon Slayer now makes up 37% of the entries on the list.