Before I post the Tuesday estimate, just a note since it may be brought up:

While its admissions today were barely below its opening day (-2%) and this past Saturday (-1%), it likely topped them overall because rural locations account for more of the daily share (1/3 versus 1/4) on the weekdays than on the weekends. Technically its opening day was a weekday, but it behaved more like a weekend.

So, the estimate will be higher than the opening day and this last Saturday even though it slightly (-1/-2%) missed them at the usual locations. I've (we've) been underestimating the weekdays since it opened, and I don't want to keep doing that. 2 theaters are also missing from the usual location's admissions today, so if they were busy locations, it may have come out on top at them anyway.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *est.*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,230,000,000 ($11.8 million) / 925,000 *est.*

19-Day Cumulative Total: ¥17,849,365,450 ($170.0 million) / 13,421,254 *est.*

But isn't this Tuesday a holiday which would make the day more comparable to the weekend and not a regular weekday?

Funny that US election day is a holiday in Japan, but not America.

Not quite because theaters are open much earlier (7am) and close much later on the weekends (up to 11pm/midnight, or later). On the weekdays, including holidays (Mon-Thur), theaters air the last showing at 9/10pm. It is similar to the weekend in that the daily business throughout the day is similar, but it really slows down after 7/8pm due to the drastic decline in showings at rural locations after that time.

Corpse, some days ago, you predicted $181M by Friday and $200M by Sunday, I think that now with this Tuesday a little lower than expected yesterday, you have revised your forecasts downwards right?

Tuesday was dead on with the projection. ¥17.85 billion ($170 million) after 19-days.

Here it is again though, but with the 19-day projection becoming the 19-day estimate instead. Days 20-24 remain the same for now.

NOTE: All films that received a re-release with reported figures in the Summer due to COVID-19 will now be marked with an asterisk (*). And at the bottom of the list you'll find how much each film has earned in re-release so that number can then be subtracted from the total to get the film's original gross.

Top 100 Highest-Grossing Films of All-Time

001. ¥31.66 billion ($257.0 million) - Spirited Away (2001)*
_______________
002. ¥26.20 billion ($212.0 million) - Titanic (1997)
003. ¥25.50 billion ($249.6 million) - Frozen (2014)
004. ¥25.03 billion ($236.5 million) - Your Name. (2016)
--- ¥21.00 billion ($200.1 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *24-Day Projection*
005. ¥20.30 billion ($163.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
006. ¥20.15 billion ($173.5 million) - Princess Mononoke (1997)*
_______________
--- ¥19.97 billion ($190.3 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *23-Day Projection*
007. ¥19.60 billion ($190.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
--- ¥19.06 billion ($181.6 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *22-Day Projection*
--- ¥18.62 billion ($177.4 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *21-Day Projection*
--- ¥18.31 billion ($174.4 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *20-Day Projection*
008. ¥17.85 billion ($170.0 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *19-Day est.*
009. ¥17.35 billion ($164.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
010. ¥17.30 billion ($147.8 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
011. ¥15.60 billion ($188.7 million) - Avatar (2009)
012. ¥15.50 billion ($156.0 million) - Ponyo (2008)
_______________
013. ¥14.19 billion ($131.7 million) - Weathering With You (2019)*
014. ¥13.70 billion ($126.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
015. ¥13.50 billion ($125.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
015. ¥13.50 billion ($66.9 million) - E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
017. ¥13.40 billion ($100.0 million) - Armageddon (1998)
018. ¥13.35 billion ($122.3 million) - Frozen II (2019)
019. ¥13.11 billion ($117.3 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
020. ¥12.85 billion ($120.6 million) - Jurassic Park (1993)
021. ¥12.70 billion ($117.6 million) - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
022. ¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
023. ¥12.16 billion ($112.0 million) - Aladdin (2019)
024. ¥12.02 billion ($123.5 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
025. ¥11.80 billion ($142.8 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
026. ¥11.63 billion ($96.3 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
027. ¥11.00 billion ($46.0 million) - Antarctica (1983)
027. ¥11.00 billion ($88.0 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
027. ¥11.00 billion ($102.4 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
027. ¥11.00 billion ($90.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
031. ¥10.90 billion ($102.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
032. ¥10.80 billion ($130.7 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
033. ¥10.65 billion ($92.7 million) - Independence Day (1996)
034. ¥10.32 billion ($100.2 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
035. ¥10.10 billion ($85.0 million) - Bayside Shakedown (1998)
036. ¥10.09 billion ($94.3 million) - Toy Story 4 (2019)
037. ¥10.02 billion ($82.3 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
_______________
038. ¥9.80 billion ($63.0 million) - The Adventures of Milo and Otis (1986)
039. ¥9.70 billion ($94.1 million) - Mission: Impossible II (2000)
039. ¥9.70 billion ($78.0 million) - A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001)
041. ¥9.67 billion ($125.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
042. ¥9.53 billion ($77.9 million) - Jurassic World (2015)
043. ¥9.50 billion ($66.0 million) - Back to the Future Part II (1989)
043. ¥9.50 billion ($85.6 million) - Jurassic Park: The Lost World (1997)
045. ¥9.40 billion ($80.6 million) - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
046. ¥9.37 billion ($85.5 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
046. ¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
048. ¥9.35 billion ($78.2 million) - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
049. ¥9.30 billion ($83.6 million) - Code Blue (2018)
050. ¥9.25 billion ($111.9 million) - Arrietty (2010)
051. ¥9.20 billion ($59.0 million) - Heaven and Earth (1990)
052. ¥9.18 billion ($83.6 million) - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
052. ¥9.18 billion ($77.7 million) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
054. ¥9.17 billion ($83.4 million) - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
055. ¥9.07 billion ($69.2 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2002)
056. ¥9.05 billion ($79.5 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
057. ¥9.00 billion ($30.0 million) - Jaws (1975)
058. ¥8.96 billion ($91.3 million) - Monsters University (2013)
059. ¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
060. ¥8.79 billion ($49.6 million) - Terminator 2: Judgement Day (1991)
061. ¥8.76 billion ($85.1 million) - The Eternal Zero (2013)
062. ¥8.70 billion ($62.0 million) - The Matrix (1999)
063. ¥8.55 billion ($94.5 million) - Rookies (2009)
064. ¥8.50 billion ($76.5 million) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
065. ¥8.38 billion ($80.2 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
066. ¥8.25 billion ($79.1 million) - Shin Godzilla (2016)
067. ¥8.20 billion ($54.0 million) - Back to the Future Part III (1990)
067. ¥8.20 billion ($67.9 million) - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
067. ¥8.20 billion ($61.2 million) - The Silk Road (1988)
070. ¥8.15 billion ($74.6 million) - Hero (2007)
071. ¥8.10 billion ($56.7 million) - Deep Impact (1998)
072. ¥8.07 billion ($72.3 million) - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
073. ¥8.04 billion ($97.2 million) - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
074. ¥8.00 billion ($84.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
075. ¥7.90 billion ($66.0 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2003)
076. ¥7.80 billion ($66.2 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
077. ¥7.75 billion ($72.0 million) - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
077. ¥7.75 billion ($63.8 million) - Tales from Earthsea (2006)*
079. ¥7.68 billion ($73.8 million) - The Sixth Sense (1999)
080. ¥7.63 billion ($70.6 million) - Zootopia (2016)
081. ¥7.54 billion ($67.8 million) - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back (1998)
082. ¥7.51 billion ($66.3 million) - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
083. ¥7.50 billion ($59.2 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
084. ¥7.40 billion ($49.4 million) - Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)
085. ¥7.34 billion ($64.8 million) - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (2016)
086. ¥7.33 billion ($93.6 million) - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (2012)
087. ¥7.31 billion ($88.4 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
087. ¥7.31 billion ($66.1 million) - Despicable Me 3 (2017)
089. ¥7.27 billion ($66.5 million) - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
090. ¥7.20 billion ($81.7 million) - Die Hard with a Vengeance (1995)
091. ¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
092. ¥7.10 billion ($61.7 million) - Umizaru: Limit of Love (2006)
093. ¥7.03 billion ($71.7 million) - Speed (1994)
094. ¥7.00 billion ($29.9 million) - Ghostbusters (1984)
094. ¥7.00 billion ($53.2 million) - Ocean's Eleven (2002)
_______________
096. ¥6.89 billion ($61.6 million) - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
097. ¥6.88 billion ($56.8 million) - Pearl Harbor (2001)
098. ¥6.87 billion ($77.1 million) - One Piece Film Z (2012)
099. ¥6.86 billion ($56.4 million) - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe (2006)
100. ¥6.86 billion ($88.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (2010)

Bonus 25 (101-125)


Note: Most films released before 1998 have estimated USD ($) totals.

*=re-release earnings included.

Re-release Earnings (inclusion to totals not confirmed yet):
¥855 million ($8.0 million) - Spirited Away
¥853 million ($8.0 million) - Princess Mononoke
¥130 million ($1.2 million) - Weathering With You
¥108 million ($1.0 million) - Tales From Earthsea

Ah ok sorry I read it wrong then and I have another question, why today there were more admissions than the opening day but there were less receipts ? Are there any small discounts on public holidays?

Yeah, basically.

Holidays tend to bring out more family audiences (children) and students, who receive discounted tickets, so the day will have a slightly lower average ticket price. This is why the Sunday average ticket prices have been less than the Saturday's if you also check them out. Since weekday holidays (Mon-Thur) tend to act like Sundays in both their business throughout the day (huge starts that taper off in the evening and die at night) and audiences they attract, it can be reasonable to compare them. Weekdays just tend to stall out an hour or so earlier.

According to this article, it also shattered IMAX record for the third week in a row

The third session for Toho/Aniplex’s Demon Slayer set yet another milestone in Japan, dropping only 11% to earn $1.84M from 38 IMAX screens. The per screen average was $48K and this third weekend becomes IMAX’s 4th highest box office weekend ever in Japan, behind the same film’s first two weekends and only 4% below prior opening weekend record-holder, Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker. The 3rd weekend also shatters the previous 3rd weekend IMAX Japan record held by Skywalker by more than double.

IMAX’s total on Demon Slayer thus far is $8.9M, making it the 2nd highest grossing IMAX box office total in Japan behind Bohemian Rhapsody ($13.4M) which had legged out over four months

You can read the whole article here:
https://www.google.com.ph/amp/s/deadlin ... 07339/amp/

It seems like this film is on track to obliterate Spirited Away's record. I'm curious how Miyazaki would feel about that.

Getting to 20 before previous speed record for 10. It’ll get to 25 before previous record for 15. Think 30 before the previous record for 20 should happen. 35 before the previous record for 25, we’ll have to see.

Fastest Films to 5 Million Admissions:


Fastest Films to 10 Million Admissions:


Fastest Films to 15 Million Admissions:
23/24 Days - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *Projected*
59/60 Days - Spirited Away (2001)
70 Days - Frozen (2014)
86 Days - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
95 Days - Your Name. (2016)
180-190 Days - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
254 Days - Titanic (1997)

Fastest Films to 20 Million Admissions:
111 Days - Spirited Away (2001)
165 Days - Frozen (2014)

I've never posted the Fastest Films to 15 Million Admissions before (should have back when Your Name. was doing its thing), but here it is. Just note that for it, since so few films have sold that many admissions, the exact days for two of the films are unknown, at least for now (I'll go back and check old articles).

Spirited Away was at 14.7 million admissions on its 56th day, so it probably hit 15 million 3 or 4 days later (weekdays), so I'm giving it 59/60 days on the list.

Howl's Moving Castle is a lot more complicated. It was at 14.5 million admissions (day 156) before falling out of top 10, and it never resurfaced. However, the film received a special couples event expansion sometime in the early Summer when its final total was announced shortly after. So it sold ~1 million admissions sometime between its 6th-8th months. Most of that would have been later I believe since it only sold around 60,000 admissions in its last weekend in the top 10, and it wouldn't have been soon after that. So I went with a wide range of sorts before its run ended.

Amazing job ! And Demon Slayer should pass 20 millions admissions just before December no ? In 40-45 days ?

It's tough to project any further than this upcoming weekend, and even this upcoming weekend won't be easy. In every regard, it *should* see a sizable dip this weekend since it's following a third weekend that had a discounted Sunday, and a set of weekdays that included a holiday. Wednesday-Friday will give us a better idea of what will happen over the weekend.

If I must give a rough timetable on when it'll reach 20 million admissions.... let's say hmm. 40-45 days looks reasonable just doing some rough calculations, so well before December. Day 39, November 23rd (Labour Day), could end up being the target/goal for 20 million admissions, but that should be pushing the expectations VERY hard.

We should see a big drop today

Just note that 25/30% is not big. That'd be great if it does that through Sunday.

I fully expect a surprising good Wednesday hold (spillover business from Tuesday, yes I still expect it to have spillovers) coupled with ladies day discount on Wednesday. So a sub-25% drop from last Wednesday is what I assume. Thursday will be rough but I still expect it to sub-30% drop from last Thursday. Its going to 45B people

@corpse I may be wrong but I think that Usual locations ratio is higher on the days with big numbers while lower on day with smaller numbers.

@corpse, where do you find the datas to make your estimations day after day ?

Unless there's still missing admissions which I doubt since it was already updated once we're looking at about 38% drop from last wednesday, I guess some of the wednesday business may have gone to monday/tuesday instead due to the holiday.