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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Nah, they won a Nobel Prize.
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Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:30 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
(beyonce released an album, mufasa died in the movie and people still were real emotional about it)
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:02 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
If the movie had 90% RT it probably could have beat the Force Awakens
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:15 pm |
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lesterg
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 11:40 am Posts: 1339
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Yep. The movie basically being a forgery of the original is what’s going to keep this club from succeeding.
You almost wonder if the directors of the original could have a case with the dga for credit on this.
_________________
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Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:19 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Great numbers, not fantastic. still it as signs of the market slowing down
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:36 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14480 Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
The schedule is wide open and dailys will be better than any time of the year besides December. If Aladdin can get anywhere near a multiplier of 4, this can too.
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Sat Jul 20, 2019 6:19 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
I was wrong. Awesome rebound.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:25 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20349 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
60% drop looks likely. Won’t get more than a 3x multiple at most and that’s if it gets good late legs like Spider Man Homecoming. I’m thinking around 550 total.
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Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:08 pm |
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lesterg
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 11:40 am Posts: 1339
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Yeah I don’t see any path to victory at this point. It was a bold prediction made the day the film was announced and I have no regrets about starting the club. I truly believe it would have happened if Disney had, you know, made a good movie.
Thanks to all who joined!
_________________
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Fri Jul 26, 2019 7:45 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14480 Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
August will be much better. It might get 650m, but nowhere near 750m.
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Sat Jul 27, 2019 6:34 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3130
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
No way it even gets to $600m. It would need 31% drops (3.22 multiplier) from here on out. This is frankly astonishing.
PS: saw the movie finally and enjoyed it alot more than I expected
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Sat Jul 27, 2019 9:12 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14480 Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Don't know what math you are trying to use. It needs drops like 38% to reach 600m. It can drop in the 30s after H&S. Aladdin's first drop was 53%, and it faced more competition later in it's run.
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:52 am |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14480 Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
I think you're making two big errors with your math. You're not including the current weekend, and you're not including weekdays.
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:57 am |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am Posts: 1742 Location: Calisota
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
The concept of an "average 38% drop" is a bit misleading. It's much different if it drops 28% first and 48% then or viceversa. A 38% drop on its third weekend is really unlikely, so it actually needs to average a weekly drop in the low 30's% after its third weekend, which translates to weekend drops no higher than 30% considering the weakening of summer weekdays starting from week 5.
Every drop above 45% next weekend makes the 600M mark absolutely impossible. Low 40s makes it unlikely.
_________________
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:02 am |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14480 Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
We have to see if the holds improve like Aladdin, but with August competition I would bet on under 35% or better. People here didn't even think Aladdin would get 300m at first.
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:58 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32106 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Boy we were wrong on this
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:02 pm |
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Moviebuf
Angels & Demons
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 6:44 pm Posts: 270
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
DP07 wrote: We have to see if the holds improve like Aladdin, but with August competition I would bet on under 35% or better. People here didn't even think Aladdin would get 300m at first. Aladdin is what is making me think people are under predicting. Lion King has essentially the rest of the summer to itself to nab the kids at home from school market during the weekdays. It won't get to 750 million, but 600 million sounds just about right.
_________________ Proclaimed King of Loonies!
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:23 pm |
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Spidey
Teenage Dream
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:13 pm Posts: 10677
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
The Lion King expands to 4,802 theaters this weekend, breaking the record for highest theater count it set two weeks ago.
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Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:48 pm |
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lesterg
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 11:40 am Posts: 1339
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Disney is hinting that Aladdin will get a sequel so you almost wonder if they’ll try making a follow-up to this. I’m not opposed to it because at least they’d be forced to do something original.
_________________
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Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:03 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22681 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Oddly enough - a sequel to TLK will probably get me to go and see it.
They'll make one.
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Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:33 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18881 Location: San Diego
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Very keen for an Aladdin sequel. That has big potential.
I could see a sequel to this decreasing. Probably still do big overseas but probably sub 500m.
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Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:11 pm |
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nghtvsn
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 7:13 pm Posts: 11015 Location: Warren Theatre Oklahoma
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
I guess the music wasn’t strong enough to get this to the heights I thought
_________________ 2009 World of KJ Fantasy Football World Champion Team MVP : Peyton Manning : Record 11-5 : Points 2669.00 [b]FREE KORRGAN 45TH PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.A. DONALD J. TRUMP #MAGA #KAG! 10,000 post achieved on - Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 7:49 pm
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Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:12 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22681 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
The music was been there/done that.
I agree with public that an Aladdin sequel has greater upside.
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Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:59 am |
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Eshwar
Newbie
Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:40 am Posts: 1
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
The movie basically being a forgery of the original is what’s going to keep this club from succeeding.
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Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:42 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22681 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: The Lion King (live-action) over 750m domestic club
Eshwar wrote: The movie basically being a forgery of the original is what’s going to keep this club from succeeding. Indeed! And welcome to KJ Eshwar!
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:47 am |
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