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 Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (06/15-16) 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (05/18-19)
Pikachu increased on Monday from last week. Any particular reason or just WOM?


Mon May 20, 2019 9:12 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (05/18-19)
WOM is certainly a reason, but seeing as how Crayon Shin-chan was up Mon.-Mon. as well, there had to be some schools that were out which mostly caused the increase.

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Mon May 20, 2019 2:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (05/18-19)
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Weekend Actuals (05/18-19)
01 (---) ¥386,000,000 ($3.5 million), 0, ¥480,504,400 ($4.4 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) NEW
02 (02) ¥275,989,800 ($2.5 million), -12%, ¥1,965,934,600 ($17.9 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK3
03 (01) ¥211,643,500 ($1.9 million), -33%, ¥5,240,996,600 ($47.5 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK4
04 (03) ¥209,781,900 ($1.9 million), -17%, ¥4,515,354,000 ($40.5 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK5
05 (04) ¥188,453,400 ($1.7 million), -24%, ¥8,318,979,000 ($75.9 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK6
06 (---) ¥x95,000,000 ($860,000), 0, ¥120,748,300 ($1.1 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) NEW
07 (---) ¥x80,000,000 ($725,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku) NEW *ESTIMATE*
08 (05) ¥x71,381,100 ($648,000), -22%, ¥1,853,965,500 ($16.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK5
09 (06) ¥x23,049,700 ($209,000), -42%, ¥290,138,900 ($2.7 million), Kakegurui (Gaga) WK3
10 (---) ¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), Replicas (Showgate) NEW
11 (11) ¥x18,845,980 ($171,000), -05%, ¥257,894,480 ($2.3 million), What is Love? (Elephant House) WK5
12 (09) ¥x18,338,600 ($166,000), -30%, ¥x76,797,600 ($697,000), Kabaneri of the Iron Fortress: The Battle of Unato (Warner Bros.) WK2


>The Confidence Man JP takes the #1 spot, not only debuting higher than its pre-sales ahead of the weekend indicated, but also higher than weekend estimates by a solid margin. The first film based on the Fuji TV Comedy sold an impressive 284,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 324 screens, and reached 357,228 admissions sold since Friday. This is a very good debut, and with an early strong reception, legs will probably be kind. I would expect a finish around ¥2.5 billion ($20-25 million). Certainly not shabby for this time of year.

>Pokemon: Detective Pikachu holds strong in second place, delivering the best hold in the Top 10 on an additional 180,000 admissions over the weekend. WOM appears to be quite good for the film, and I believe a number of weary moviegoers who may have been interested in seeing it, but not in theaters, are likely coming out now. This will probably be a short-lived benefit, maybe til the end of the month, but we may need to keep watch on this one -- it could end up being extra-leggy. For now, expect a total between ¥3.0-3.5 billion (~$30 million).

>Avengers: Endgame ended up coming in third place in a very close race. As mentioned just two weeks into its run, it's the highest-grossing non-Spider-Man film in the market, and then right before going into its fourth-weekend, it exceeded the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone -- this makes it only the fourth superhero film to ever reach the mark. Expect a finish of about ¥6 billion ($53/54 million).

>Kingdom settles for fourth place in its fifth-weekend of release, and it delivered yet another impressive hold this weekend. It's now guaranteed to exceed the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone, and then if it can gross more than ¥5.22 billion, it'll outgross Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno to become the highest-grossing domestic live-action adaptation of a Weekly Shonen manga series. This film was a major win on several fronts.

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire holds steady to round out the Top 5 in its sixth-weekend of release. It continues to track ahead of last year's franchise record-setting film, Zero the Enforcer, and should finish right around the ¥9 billion ($82/83 million) mark. Toho will probably need to give it some special screenings or a late expansion of some sort (like they did with last year's film), in order to surpass the franchise record of ¥9.18 billion, and they actually announced just that with "cheering" screenings at select locations beginning on May 30th.

>According to Our Butler, Iwane: Sword of Serenity, and Replicas remain estimates based on their weekend admissions rankings.

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Last edited by Corpse on Mon May 20, 2019 9:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon May 20, 2019 9:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2019
2019 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) / 1,144,539 [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥1 billion ↨
¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) / 628,000 [806] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥812.7 million ($7.2 million) / 639,000 [467] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) / 586,000 [382] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) / 484,000 [349] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥526.0 million ($4.7 million) / 382,000 [388] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)

¥500 million ↨
¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) / 276,795 [131] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥456.9 million ($4.1 million) / 317,000 [417] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥453.6 million ($4.1 million) / 350,373 [468] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥426.6 million ($3.8 million) / 279,000 [754] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥389.0 million ($3.5 million) / 313,000 [332] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥385.6 million ($3.5 million) / 284,000 [324] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) / 260,000 [329] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) / 210,000 [692] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)

¥300 million ↨
¥289.0 million ($2.6 million) / 242,000 [356] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥267.5 million ($2.4 million) / 206,636 [343] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) / 191,000 [319] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)
¥257.1 million ($2.3 million) / 179,780 [251] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥251.4 million ($2.2 million) / 222,930 [368] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥248.3 million ($2.2 million) / 221,579 [230] - Precure Miracle Universe (Toei)
¥247.6 million ($2.2 million) / 152,000 [880] - Alita: Battle Angel (Fox)
¥221.5 million ($2.0 million) / 180,000 [387] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥217.2 million ($1.9 million) / 140,000 [120] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)
¥201.5 million ($1.8 million) / 154,000 [180] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥200 million ↨
¥199.2 million ($1.8 million) / 150,927 [326] - Snow Flowers (Warner Bros.)
¥188.4 million ($1.7 million) / 141,000 [302] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥186.2 million ($1.7 million) / 139,000 [654] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥185.5 million ($1.7 million) / 144,000 [598] - Dumbo (Disney)
¥185.0 million ($1.7 million) / 140,000 [396] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥172.5 million ($1.6 million) / 120,000 [724] - Bumblebee (Toho-Towa)
¥167.0 million ($1.5 million) / 115,000 [723] - Shazam! (Warner Bros.)
¥161.3 million ($1.4 million) / 142,046 [439] - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
¥160.1 million ($1.4 million) / x98,074 [337] - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
¥152.4 million ($1.4 million) / 120,000 [207] - My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkei)
¥146.1 million ($1.3 million) / 116,000 [238] - The Mule (Warner Bros.)
¥142.6 million ($1.3 million) / 118,000 [299] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥137.0 million ($1.2 million) / 101,000 [331] - It Comes (Toho)
¥121.7 million ($1.1 million) / x86,286 [111] - Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division)
¥121.5 million ($1.1 million) / x88,000 [434] - First Man (Toho-Towa)
¥120.5 million ($1.0 million) / x89,919 [x89] - Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Wed May 22, 2019 7:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon May 20, 2019 9:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2019
2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥8.32 billion ($75.9 million) / 6.51 million [38] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥6.56 billion ($58.6 million) / 4.92 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥5.24 billion ($47.5 million) / 3.59 million [24] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.96 billion ($45.1 million) / 4.34 million [80] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥4.60 billion ($41.9 million) / 3.57 million [E] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥4.52 billion ($40.5 million) / 3.39 million [31] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)
¥3.90 billion ($35.2 million) / 3.01 million [E] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.80 billion ($34.6 million) / 3.06 million [E] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥3.69 billion ($33.4 million) / 2.86 million [E] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.12 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.70 million [E] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.06 billion ($18.7 million) / 1.41 million [E] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥2.04 billion ($18.4 million) / 1.62 million [E] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.97 billion ($17.9 million) / 1.38 million [17] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥1.85 billion ($16.7 million) / 1.58 million [31] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥1.67 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.63 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.11 million [E] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.03 million [E] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.07 million [E] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.34 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.05 million [E] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [E] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.89 million [E] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon May 20, 2019 9:15 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 2019 Weekend #1 Films
2019 - Weekend #1 Films

01/05-06: ¥335.8 million ($3.1 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK9
01/12-13: ¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
01/19-20: ¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK1
01/26-27: ¥477.9 million ($4.4 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK2
02/02-03: ¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) - The Seven Conferences (Toho) WK1
02/09-10: ¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK1
02/16-17: ¥195.9 million ($1.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK2
02/23-24: ¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) - Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK1
03/02-03: ¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK1
03/09-10: ¥612.0 million ($5.5 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK2
03/16-17: ¥437.7 million ($3.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
03/23-24: ¥310.7 million ($2.8 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK4
03/30-31: ¥323.8 million ($2.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
04/06-07: ¥174.7 million ($1.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK6
04/13-14: ¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK1
04/20-21: ¥886.1 million ($8.0 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK2
04/27-28: ¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) - Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK1
05/04-05: ¥587.1 million ($5.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK4
05/11-12: ¥315.9 million ($2.9 million) - Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK3
05/18-19: ¥385.6 million ($3.5 million) - The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK1


Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed May 22, 2019 7:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/1
Will there be an updated multiplier list, or is the latest one good enough for the future?


Fri May 24, 2019 5:24 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/1
Do you mean an updated All-Time Multiplier List, or a 2019 Multiplier List? If the former, I'll update it once Bohemian Rhapsody officially ends its run (should be very soon). If the latter, I actually haven't posted one yet for 2019. I usually wait until around the mid-year to post the first yearly multiplier list, which is approaching. I'll try to get it up this weekend, or sometime early next week.

And welcome to the forum. :)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri May 24, 2019 6:36 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (05/25-26)
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Weekend Forecast (05/25-26)
01 (01) ¥309,000,000 ($2.8 million), -20%, ¥1,115,000,000 ($10.2 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) ¥202,000,000 ($1.8 million), -27%, ¥2,360,000,000 ($21.5 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK4
04 (03) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥5,550,000,000 ($50.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK5
05 (04) ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), -31%, ¥4,835,000,000 ($43.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK6
06 (05) ¥121,000,000 ($1.1 million), -36%, ¥8,550,000,000 ($78.0 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK7
07 (---) ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) NEW
08 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($685,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($960,000), Promare (Toho) NEW
09 (07) ¥x47,000,000 ($430,000), -45%, ¥260,000,000 ($2.4 million), Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku) WK2
10 (08) ¥x42,000,000 ($380,000), -41%, ¥1,915,000,000 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK6


>The Confidence Man JP is aiming to repeat atop the weekend box-office, and it's likely to do so. The film adaptation of the Fuji TV Comedy surprised last weekend and had some good weekdays, and pre-sales today suggest it'll have a strong second weekend hold as well. All of this is evidence of the film is going to have a nice run, and it'll likely keep a strong presence at the box-office until early/mid-July.

>Aircraft Carrier Ibuki is a bit of a dark horse and has a slight chance of surprising and taking the #1 spot. The rescue drama features a renowned cast and good reviews. Independent distributor Kino Films certainly has confidence it, too, given their aggressive marketing and release strategy (332 theaters is a lot for this distributor). Ultimately, I think it'll fall short of the top spot, but it'll have a respectable debut that Kino Films will be satisfied with. Look for this one to potentially have some strong legs.

>Pokemon: Detective Pikachu appears like it's coming back down from the boost it seemed to receive from previously weary moviegoers, but it's still holding well. The last two weeks suggested it could have easily exceed the ¥3 billion milestone, and while it'll still get there, it'll finish just barely above that mark again. Overall, this may still be viewed as "disappointing" in the market, but the ¥3/3.5 billion mark is where the recent films in the animated franchise have landed, so I'd consider it a modest success. It could have been much less rather than much more.

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire, Avengers: Endgame, and Kingdom will all continue to better their already excellent performances, with all three films still on track to reach their final milestones of ¥9 billion, ¥6 billion, and ¥5 billion, respectively. All three are above and beyond performers and should find themselves a spot on the Yearly Top 10 list.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri May 24, 2019 6:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Upcoming Release Schedule (June & July
Upcoming Release Schedule: June & July

06/07:
[328] - Aladdin (Disney)
[201] - Almost a Miracle (Warner Bros.)
[161] - Children of the Sea (Toho Video Division)
[101] - Cold Pursuit (Kadokawa)

06/14:
[345] - Men in Black International (Sony)
[126] - Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku)
[x93] - Don't Cry, Mr. Ogre (Kadokawa)

06/21:
[328] - X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Fox)
[326] - The Fable (Shochiku)
[250] - If I Could Ride a Wave With You (Toho)
[x98] - Final Fantasy XIV: Dad of Light (Gaga)

06/28:
[350] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony)
[242] - Bento Harassment (Showgate)
[234] - Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Vanilla of the Land of Ice Cream (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
[141] - The Journalist (Star Sands/Aeon Entertainment)
[138] - Hot Gimmick: Girl Meets Boy (Toei)
[x82] - Sea of Revival (Kino Films)


________________________________

07/05:
[204] - Diner (Warner Bros.)
[x73] - Free! Road to the World - Dream (Shochiku)

07/12:
[367] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho)
[349] - Toy Story 4 (Disney)

07/19:
[TBD] - Weathering With You (Toho) *Makoto Shinkai's latest*
[283] - Tokyo Ghoul "S" (Shochiku)

07/26:
[TBD] - The Great War of Archimedes (Toho)
[TBD] - The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa)
[TBD] - Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer! (Toei)


Preliminary theater counts in [brackets] are subject-to-change, especially for premium format releases distributed by Disney and Warner Bros.

Theater Count Key:
<100: Limited.
101-149: Wide.
150-199: Below Average.
200-249: Standard.
250-299: Above average.
300-349: Very wide.
>350: Optimal.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat May 25, 2019 8:53 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Upcoming Release Schedule (June & July
Corpse wrote:
Upcoming Release Schedule: June & July
--snip--


Thank you for the list! Any chance you could add projection ranges to the bigger movies (or all if you have time) based on current buzz and trends? Just so we get a sense for how things are going :)


Sat May 25, 2019 8:59 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Upcoming Release Schedule (June & July
Here is a fairly wide-range list of projections:

¥10 billion+ potential (~$100 million+):
Weathering With You

¥5-¥10 billion potential (~$50-$100 million):
Toy Story 4

¥3-¥5 billion potential (~$30-$50 million):
Aladdin
Men in Black International
Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution
Spider-Man: Far From Home
The Secret Life of Pets 2

¥2-¥3 billion potential (~$20-$30 million):
The Great War of Archimedes

¥1 billion potential (~$10 million):
Almost a Miracle
Bento Harassment
Diner
If I Could Ride a Wave With You
Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer!
The Fable
Tokyo Ghoul "S"

Less than ¥1 billion (Sub-$10 million):
Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Vanilla of the Land of Ice Cream
Children of the Sea
Cold Pursuit
Don't Cry, Mr. Ogre
Final Fantasy XIV: Dad of Light
Free! Road to the World - Dream
Hot Gimmick: Girl Meets Boy
Sea of Revival
The Journalist
Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom
X-Men: Dark Phoenix


A few notes:
Weathering With You probably has the widest range since it could "only" earn around ¥10 billion, but it could also easily do ¥15 billion+. It's a uniquely difficult film to predict given how massive Shinkai's last film was.
Toy Story 4 is in a wide range. I expect it to do much better than ¥5 billion but I doubt it matches the success of its predecessor given how Pixar sequels have all declined in the market, so I wouldn't expect a total too close to ¥10 billion.
Aladdin is still a dark horse to me. There are both good and bad signs for it, equally, so I don't feel confident throwing out any specific number for it.

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Sat May 25, 2019 9:38 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Upcoming Release Schedule (June & July
Is Lion King releasing in August then?


Sat May 25, 2019 11:41 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Upcoming Release Schedule (June & July
Yeah, August 9th.

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Sun May 26, 2019 4:46 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (05/25-26)
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Weekend Estimates (05/25-26)
01 (01) ¥347,000,000 ($3.2 million), -10%, ¥1,155,000,000 ($10.6 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥295,000,000 ($2.7 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) ¥206,000,000 ($1.9 million), -25%, ¥2,365,000,000 ($21.6 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK4
04 (04) ¥152,000,000 ($1.4 million), -27%, ¥4,840,000,000 ($43.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK6
05 (03) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥5,550,000,000 ($50.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK5
06 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) NEW
07 (05) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥8,560,000,000 ($78.1 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK7
08 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥x90,000,000 ($820,000), Promare (Toho) NEW
09 (06) ¥x40,000,000 ($365,000), -57%, ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) WK2
10 (08) ¥x39,000,000 ($355,000), -46%, ¥1,915,000,000 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK6


Everything mostly performed as expected this weekend. The Confidence Man JP held even better than early weekend numbers suggested though, delivering an excellent second weekend hold that easily allowed it to secure its second weekend atop the box-office. Sadako has the admissions to have earned a debut in the Top 5 (fourth or fifth) but this one isn't showing in any premium formats, so I expect its average ticket price to be relatively low. I think it'll just miss the Top 5 in revenue.

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Sun May 26, 2019 7:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (05/25-26)
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Weekend Actuals (05/25-26)
01 (01) ¥351,000,600 ($3.2 million), -09%, ¥1,205,906,900 ($11.0 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥246,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥332,068,500 ($3.0 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) ¥211,320,400 ($1.9 million), -23%, ¥2,355,500,500 ($21.5 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK4
04 (---) ¥164,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥209,706,700 ($1.9 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) NEW
05 (04) ¥153,219,800 ($1.4 million), -26%, ¥4,870,528,100 ($43.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK6
06 (03) ¥147,715,900 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥5,564,046,500 ($50.4 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK5
07 (05) ¥132,052,500 ($1.2 million), -30%, ¥8,575,715,400 ($78.2 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK7
08 (---) ¥x65,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥x97,519,600 ($889,000), Promare (Toho) NEW
09 (08) ¥x41,416,700 ($378,000), -42%, ¥1,916,583,400 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK6
10 (06) ¥x40,074,100 ($365,000), -57%, ¥208,582,200 ($1.9 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) WK2
11 (07) ¥x34,148,600 ($311,000), -60%, ¥260,074,600 ($2.4 million), Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku) WK2


>The Confidence Man JP easily held onto the #1 spot in its second weekend of release, and delivered an excellent 9% hold in the process. I expect good/great holds for most of its run, and it should end up finishing above the ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) mark. This would be a particularly good result for a film that opened just two weeks after a major holiday period.

>Aircraft Carrier Ibuki comes in second place, and didn't disappoint with a solid 194,000 admissions sold over the weekend frame across 331 screens. It reached 265,070 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a solid debut, but it's a very impressive debut for independent distributor Kino Films. It should finish around ¥1.5 billion ($15 million).

>Pokemon: Detective Pikachu slips to third place in its fourth-weekend of release, delivering yet another good weekend hold -- the second best in the Top 10. The film's trajectory remains unchanged, and it should finish just above the ¥3 billion ($30 million) milestone.

>Sadako makes a surprising debut in fourth place, selling 118,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 416 screens. It reached 152,023 admissions since opening on Friday. Its average ticket price came in much higher than I was expecting. I don't have an opening list of the many Sadako (Grudge) films, but this opening is likely in the middle of pack. Legs can be kind of unpredictable for the horror genre, but a total of ¥1 billion ($10 million) is doable.

>Kingdom rounded out the Top 5 by edging ahead of Endgame this weekend (the two films have been neck-and-neck for the past few weeks), earning itself a good hold in its sixth-weekend of release. Unless it experiences an unexpected drop next week, it's likely to outgross Death Note: The Last Name (¥5.2 billion) and then Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno (¥5.22 billion) to become the highest-grossing live-action film adapted from a Weekly Shonen manga series.

>Avengers: Endgame gets bumped out of the Top 5, but it's still performing well, and holding noticeably better than most superhero films. Its chances of reaching the ¥6 billion milestone was 50/50 at best just last week, but this weekend's hold should nearly lock the milestone up. I expect it'll finish at ¥6.1/6.2 billion ($55/56 million).

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire continues its excellent run in its seventh-weekend of release, and is keeping a strong ¥1 billion lead over last year's franchise record-setting release. It's very likely to exceed the ¥9 billion milestone now, and while its impressive lead over last year's film will begin to shrink very soon, I do believe it'll stay ahead of it and set a new franchise record. I expect it'll end up grossing around ¥9.2/9.3 billion ($84/85 million).

>Promare's weekend figure remains an estimate, but its three-day total is the actual. It sold 64,975 admissions since opening on Friday across 200 screens.

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Mon May 27, 2019 7:23 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2019
2019 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) / 1,144,539 [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥1 billion ↨
¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) / 628,000 [806] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥812.7 million ($7.2 million) / 639,000 [467] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) / 586,000 [382] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) / 484,000 [349] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥526.0 million ($4.7 million) / 382,000 [388] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)

¥500 million ↨
¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) / 276,795 [131] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥456.9 million ($4.1 million) / 317,000 [417] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥453.6 million ($4.1 million) / 350,373 [468] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥426.6 million ($3.8 million) / 279,000 [754] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥389.0 million ($3.5 million) / 313,000 [332] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥385.6 million ($3.5 million) / 284,000 [324] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) / 260,000 [329] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) / 210,000 [692] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)

¥300 million ↨
¥289.0 million ($2.6 million) / 242,000 [356] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥267.5 million ($2.4 million) / 206,636 [343] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) / 191,000 [319] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)
¥257.1 million ($2.3 million) / 179,780 [251] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥251.4 million ($2.2 million) / 222,930 [368] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥248.3 million ($2.2 million) / 221,579 [230] - Precure Miracle Universe (Toei)
¥247.6 million ($2.2 million) / 152,000 [880] - Alita: Battle Angel (Fox)
¥246.0 million ($2.2 million) / 194,000 [331] - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films)
¥221.5 million ($2.0 million) / 180,000 [387] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥217.2 million ($1.9 million) / 140,000 [120] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)
¥201.5 million ($1.8 million) / 154,000 [180] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥200 million ↨
¥199.2 million ($1.8 million) / 150,927 [326] - Snow Flowers (Warner Bros.)
¥188.4 million ($1.7 million) / 141,000 [302] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥186.2 million ($1.7 million) / 139,000 [654] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥185.5 million ($1.7 million) / 144,000 [598] - Dumbo (Disney)
¥185.0 million ($1.7 million) / 140,000 [396] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥172.5 million ($1.6 million) / 120,000 [724] - Bumblebee (Toho-Towa)
¥167.0 million ($1.5 million) / 115,000 [723] - Shazam! (Warner Bros.)
¥164.0 million ($1.5 million) / 118,000 [416] - Sadako (Kadokawa)
¥161.3 million ($1.4 million) / 142,046 [439] - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
¥160.1 million ($1.4 million) / x98,074 [337] - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
¥152.4 million ($1.4 million) / 120,000 [207] - My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkei)
¥146.1 million ($1.3 million) / 116,000 [238] - The Mule (Warner Bros.)
¥142.6 million ($1.3 million) / 118,000 [299] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥137.0 million ($1.2 million) / 101,000 [331] - It Comes (Toho)
¥121.7 million ($1.1 million) / x86,286 [111] - Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division)
¥121.5 million ($1.1 million) / x88,000 [434] - First Man (Toho-Towa)
¥120.5 million ($1.0 million) / x89,919 [x89] - Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2019
2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥8.58 billion ($78.2 million) / 6.71 million [45] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥6.56 billion ($58.6 million) / 4.92 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥5.56 billion ($50.4 million) / 3.79 million [31] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.97 billion ($45.2 million) / 4.34 million [87] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥4.87 billion ($43.7 million) / 3.66 million [38] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)
¥4.60 billion ($41.9 million) / 3.57 million [E] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥3.90 billion ($35.2 million) / 3.01 million [E] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.80 billion ($34.6 million) / 3.06 million [E] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥3.69 billion ($33.4 million) / 2.86 million [E] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.36 billion ($21.5 million) / 1.64 million [24] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥2.12 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.70 million [E] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.06 billion ($18.7 million) / 1.41 million [E] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥2.04 billion ($18.4 million) / 1.62 million [E] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.92 billion ($17.3 million) / 1.63 million [38] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥1.67 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.63 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.11 million [E] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.03 million [E] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.07 million [E] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.34 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.05 million [E] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.91 million [10] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [E] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.89 million [E] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 2019 Weekend #1 Films
2019 - Weekend #1 Films

01/05-06: ¥335.8 million ($3.1 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK9
01/12-13: ¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
01/19-20: ¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK1
01/26-27: ¥477.9 million ($4.4 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK2
02/02-03: ¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) - The Seven Conferences (Toho) WK1
02/09-10: ¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK1
02/16-17: ¥195.9 million ($1.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK2
02/23-24: ¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) - Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK1
03/02-03: ¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK1
03/09-10: ¥612.0 million ($5.5 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK2
03/16-17: ¥437.7 million ($3.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
03/23-24: ¥310.7 million ($2.8 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK4
03/30-31: ¥323.8 million ($2.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
04/06-07: ¥174.7 million ($1.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK6
04/13-14: ¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK1
04/20-21: ¥886.1 million ($8.0 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK2
04/27-28: ¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) - Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK1
05/04-05: ¥587.1 million ($5.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK4
05/11-12: ¥315.9 million ($2.9 million) - Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK3
05/18-19: ¥385.6 million ($3.5 million) - The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK1
05/25-26: ¥351.0 million ($3.2 million) - The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2


Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
How much do you think The Lion King will make?


Mon May 27, 2019 9:39 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
Umm... I don't know. The Disney live-action remakes are hit or miss in the market, and there's a massive gap between the two categories. They Disney Princess films don't just outgross the Disney Animal films, they blow them out of the water at the box-office.

Disney Princess Remakes:
¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) - Beauty and the Beast
¥11.80 billion ($142.8 million) - Alice in Wonderland
¥6.54 billion ($63.5 million) - Maleficent
¥5.73 billion ($46.6 million) - Cinderella
¥2.78 billion ($26.3 million) - Alice Through the Looking Glass

Disney Animal Remakes:
¥2.43 billion ($21.5 million) - Christopher Robin
¥2.21 billion ($21.5 million) - The Jungle Book
Sub-¥1 billion* ($8/9 million) - Dumbo

*Dumbo might have barely crawled to ¥1 billion, but tracking ended far enough below the mark that it probably did miss it.

Aladdin opens in two weeks, so we'll see how that one does first. It's more in the Disney Princess category, but it's not a traditional Disney Princess film. Will Smith is a decent draw still and keeping the songs and musical numbers in the film will help it, so those are some positives. Overall, I'm feeling good about its chances of success in the market. It won't be Beauty and the Beast or Alice in Wonderland big, but maybe more of a Maleficent/Cinderella type of performance.

As for The Lion King... It's clearly in the Animal category, more so than any other Disney live-action remake, so that's a major negative against it based on the performances of past Disney live-action remakes. Is the remake still a musical? The most recent trailer has Timon and Pumbaa singing "The Lion Sleeps Tonight", but I haven't heard any of the actual classic songs/musical numbers yet. If the retains the songs/musical numbers, that'll help it a lot. If they're excluded, I wouldn't be surprised with a very disappointing (bomb territory) performance.

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Wed May 29, 2019 4:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
"Japan, which was also the focus of WB’s promotion and where the movie is handled by Toho, is not expected to react with the typical disdain for U.S. remakes of its IP. Enthusiasm, we hear, is high and Toho has been pushing the hell out of it. The last Godzilla had its second-best showing in Japan with about a $30M final." Deadline

Has the situation for King of the Monsters in Japan changed at all?


Thu May 30, 2019 1:04 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
I don't think so. I still mostly think it'll have a similar performance as the 2014 film in the market. If it didn't include the many classic kaiju, I'd be predicting a decline, but they'll probably help keep it from dropping too much.

Friday pre-sales are pretty poor so far. It'll be more of an evening/night film, but even the busiest theaters aren't really seeing much in pre-sales for the day. That said, Friday's performance won't really tell us too much this week because Saturday is the 1st of the month (national discount day), so Friday will be deflated as a result. Still, nothing is indicating a breakout or anything of the sort. A big film would still have strong Friday ticket sales regardless.

And I wouldn't take Deadline as a credible source for the market either... Nothing against them, but they always seem to over-hype films based on Japanese material in the market. I remember they "heard" that Alita: Battle Angel was having big pre-sales a week before opening (I didn't even see any advance showings...), even saying people were seeing it twice..., and then suggested it was headed toward a big debut in the market. But that definitely didn't happen. It had a mediocre debut, followed by very poor legs that landed it in the bomb category. And that wasn't surprising. Anyone who follows the Japanese market will tell you that it's very rare for Hollywood adaptations of Japanese source material to succeed in the market.

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Thu May 30, 2019 1:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Godzilla Box-Office History
In case I forget to post it before the weekend, here's the Box-Office History for Godzilla franchise:

Godzilla Box-Office History:
# Of Films: 34 / Years Active: 1954-Present

Admissions:
12.55 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962)
9.61 million - Godzilla (1954)
8.34 million - Godzilla Raids Again (1955)
7.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1964)
5.69 million - Shin Godzilla (2016)
5.41 million - Ghidorah, the Three-Headed Monster (1964)
5.13 million - Invasion of Astro-Monster (1965)
4.21 million - Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster (1966)
4.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1992)
4.00 million - Godzilla vs. Destoroyah (1995)
3.90 million - Godzilla (1998) *Hollywood*
3.80 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla II (1993)
3.40 million - Godzilla vs. Space Godzilla (1994)
3.20 million - The Return of Godzilla (1984)
2.70 million - Godzilla vs. King Ghidorah (1991)
2.50 million - Destroy All Monsters (1968)
2.48 million - Son of Godzilla (1967)
2.40 million - Godzilla, Mothra and King Ghidorah: Giant Monsters All-Out Attack (2001)
2.23 million - Godzilla (2014) *Hollywood*
2.00 million - Godzlla vs. Biollante (1989)
2.00 million - Godzilla 2000 (1999)
1.78 million - Godzilla vs. Gigan (1972)
1.74 million - Godzilla vs. Hedorah (1971)
1.70 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla III (2002)
1.48 million - All Monsters Attack (1969)
1.35 million - Godzilla vs. Megaguirus (2000)
1.33 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla (1974)
1.20 million - Godzilla: Tokyo S.O.S (2003)
1.00 million - Godzilla: Final Wars (2004)
0.98 million - Godzilla vs. Megalon (1973)
0.97 million - Terror of Mechagodzilla (1975)


Note (1): This doesn't include the recent animated trilogy. Official admissions (or earnings) were never released since they didn't gross very much, but they sold under 500,000 admissions each, so they'd rank at the bottom of the list.
Note (2): Second Most-Attended Franchise in Japan after the Doraemon Franchise.

_________________
Japan Box Office

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu May 30, 2019 2:16 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
Corpse wrote:
Umm... I don't know. The Disney live-action remakes are hit or miss in the market, and there's a massive gap between the two categories. They Disney Princess films don't just outgross the Disney Animal films, they blow them out of the water at the box-office.

Disney Princess Remakes:
¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) - Beauty and the Beast
¥11.80 billion ($142.8 million) - Alice in Wonderland
¥6.54 billion ($63.5 million) - Maleficent
¥5.73 billion ($46.6 million) - Cinderella
¥2.78 billion ($26.3 million) - Alice Through the Looking Glass

Disney Animal Remakes:
¥2.43 billion ($21.5 million) - Christopher Robin
¥2.21 billion ($21.5 million) - The Jungle Book
Sub-¥1 billion* ($8/9 million) - Dumbo

*Dumbo might have barely crawled to ¥1 billion, but tracking ended far enough below the mark that it probably did miss it.

Aladdin opens in two weeks, so we'll see how that one does first. It's more in the Disney Princess category, but it's not a traditional Disney Princess film. Will Smith is a decent draw still and keeping the songs and musical numbers in the film will help it, so those are some positives. Overall, I'm feeling good about its chances of success in the market. It won't be Beauty and the Beast or Alice in Wonderland big, but maybe more of a Maleficent/Cinderella type of performance.

As for The Lion King... It's clearly in the Animal category, more so than any other Disney live-action remake, so that's a major negative against it based on the performances of past Disney live-action remakes. Is the remake still a musical? The most recent trailer has Timon and Pumbaa singing "The Lion Sleeps Tonight", but I haven't heard any of the actual classic songs/musical numbers yet. If the retains the songs/musical numbers, that'll help it a lot. If they're excluded, I wouldn't be surprised with a very disappointing (bomb territory) performance.


It does have the original songs. And didn't Zootopia make bank?


Fri May 31, 2019 7:18 am
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