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 Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/01) 
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
Oh yeah. Well the movie increased 11% on the first Sunday and 30% on the second Sunday so it could be somewhere in the middle.

If it can increase 20% then that could get it over ¥300 million.


Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:28 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Wow! Bohemian's run is insane in Japan. I believe Frozen was the last movie to have regained #1 position after so long in its run and the marketplace isn't bad either at this point.

Corpse any chance that Bohemian ends with winning 2019 given that 2018's highest movie ended up with $83m USD and ¥9.23 billion?


Frozen was #1 for 16 consecutive weekends by gross, so I think it may have been another movie that regained #1 you are thinking about.

Regarding the second point, I think it depends how much over ¥10 billion Bohemian Rhapsody can actually go. Makoto Shinkai's "Weathering With You" should be huge next year. Following his phenomenon Your Name, I'm guessing ¥15 billion isn't unrealistic. The next Detective Conan film could also surpass ¥10 billion given the growth of the franchise in recent years. And perhaps another Hollywood film might cross that milestone too.


Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:34 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
2019 has potential to be the biggest year ever, beating 2016, if all goes well. This is without knowing where 2018 finished, of course -- it may have broken the record first.

Below I've listed what I consider to be many films that are likely to find success at the box office next year. Next to each film is a projected range using either ¥3-5 billion, ¥5-10 billion, or ¥10 billion+, that I believe each film could fall in. Please note that just because I have a film listed below in any of these three ranges doesn't mean they'll 100% make it; it just means that they have the potential to gross a figure at the low-end of that range, and/or have the chance to go to the high-end of that range.

Example 01: I have next year's Doraemon film in the ¥5-10 billion range. It's incredibly unlikely to gross anywhere near the high-end of that range, but based on the previous film and the franchise's growth recently, it's still likely to reach at least ¥5 billion and achieve the low-end of the range. I want to avoid having too many projected ranges, so it fell there.

Example 02: I have Toy Story 4 in the ¥5-10 billion range. Its predecessor was a huge success, making a bit over ¥10 billion, but with the decline that all but one Pixar sequel (Cars 2) has experienced in the market, the next film is likely to drop and fall below ¥10 billion. It won't drop as low as ¥5 billion, but again, I want to avoid too many projected ranges.

01/18: Masquerade Hotel (¥3-5 billion)
02/01: Mary Poppins Returns (¥3-5 billion)
02/22: The Day's Organ (¥3-5 billion)
03/01: Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (¥5-10 billion)
03/08: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (¥3-5 billion)
03/29: Dumbo (¥3-5 billion)
04/12: Detective Conan: The First of Blue Sapphire (¥10 billion+)
04/19: Kingdom (¥3-5 billion)
04/26: Avengers: Endgame (¥3-5 billion)
05/31: Godzilla: King of Monsters (¥3-5 billion)
06/07: Aladdin (¥5-10 billion)
07/12: Pokemon: Mewtwo's Counterattack Evolution (¥3-5 billion)
07/12: Toy Story 4 (¥5-10 billion)
07/19: Weathering With You (¥10 billion+)
07/26: The Great War of Archimedes (¥3-5 billion)
08/09: One Piece Film Stampede (¥5-10 billion)
09/13: Kioku ni Gozaimasen (¥3-5 billion)
12/27: Welcome Back, Tora-san! (¥3-5 billion)

Release Dates TBD:
May: Detective Pikachu (¥3-5 billion)
Summer: The Secret Life of Pets 2 (¥5-10 billion)
Summer: Men in Black International (¥3-5 billion)
Fall: At the End of the Matinee (¥3-5 billion)
TBA: The Lion King (¥5-10 billion)
TBA: Spider-Man: Far From Home (¥3-5 billion)
TBA: Frozen 2 (¥10 billion+)
TBA: It: Chapter Two (¥3-5 billion)
TBA: Star Wars: Episode IX (¥5-10 billion)


There will probably be a number of films added to the release schedule over the next month or two (Japanese films are often announced late), especially for the months of August and September.

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Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
It seems the last time there were three ¥10 billion+ films was 2010. 2019 looks to have three at the very least. Frozen 2 will probably be classified as a 2020 film, but that will be balanced by Bohemian Rhapsody counting as a 2019 film. Just need one more film to break out to that milestone to beat 2010 and tie 2003 for most ¥10 billion+ films in a year (four films).


Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
The movies seem to behaving some poor Sunday increases compared to last weekend.


Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:34 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
Hopefully Conan 23 does make 10 billion (I personally have serious doubts) and Toy Story 4 actually somehow manages to stay above 10 billion, which should then be enough for four films above the mark (adding BR and Shinkai's new film). I think TLK could actually make over 10 billion as well.


Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:09 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
So based on the ticket sales and the gross from last weekend, Broly should be around ¥291 million. It might go up again though like it did last weekend. I suppose there's a chance at ¥300 million if it can increased by about 3%.


Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:22 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)


So it looks like it's fallen where it was expected to then.


Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
The normal drops aren't surprising. I mentioned in my forecast that Sunday's evening business was likely to be down considerably (the whole day mostly was, in fact) versus last week since Monday is New Year's Eve, which would drag the weekend itself down some.

New Year's Eve is traditionally a poor day at the box office in the market, people out celebrating and such, but New Year's Day and the following days are very, very strong. Jan. 1st-3rd are among the three biggest days of the year, no matter where they fall. These three days (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this year) will likely double or triple this weekend's earnings.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:14 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/29-30)
Will you be posting any estimates later or do you wait until after these New Years days?


Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:38 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/29-30)
:mer:

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(C)2018 Disney. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Estimates (12/29-30)
01 (01) ¥353,000,000 ($3.2 million), -22%, ¥1,685,000,000 ($15.3 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK2
02 (03) ¥342,000,000 ($3.1 million), -12%, ¥7,140,000,000 ($63.3 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK8
03 (02) ¥293,000,000 ($2.6 million), -30%, ¥2,660,000,000 ($23.8 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK3
04 (05) ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), -19%, ¥5,625,000,000 ($50.1 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK6
05 (04) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -60%, ¥855,000,000 ($7.7 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) WK2
06 (06) ¥107,000,000 ($965,000), -42%, ¥615,000,000 ($5.5 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) WK2
07 (08) ¥102,000,000 ($920,000), -25%, ¥780,000,000 ($7.1 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK3
08 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) NEW
09 (07) ¥x99,000,000 ($895,000), -33%, ¥860,000,000 ($7.8 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK3
10 (09) ¥x51,000,000 ($460,000), -32%, ¥290,000,000 ($2.6 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) WK2


Ralph Breaks the Internet appears to have held off Bohemian Rhapsody in reclaiming the #1 spot with a great hold second weekend hold.

I'm going to wait until actuals to type up any weekend analysis, but this weekend largely behaved like a typical last weekend of December -- very normal. With New Year's Eve falling on Monday, Sunday's business was deflated a bit, but expect some big, big numbers from Tuesday onward.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:45 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Weekly Performance
Bohemian Rhapsody - Weekly Performance
WK1: ¥354.3 million ($3.2 million)
WK2: ¥388.5 million ($3.4 million), +10%, ¥1.321 billion ($11.7 million)
WK3: ¥395.0 million ($3.5 million), +02%, ¥2.336 billion ($20.8 million)
WK4: ¥496.0 million ($4.4 million), +26%, ¥3.323 billion ($29.4 million)
WK5: ¥505.1 million ($4.5 million), +02%, ¥4.394 billion ($38.9 million)
WK6: ¥431.5 million ($3.8 million), -15%, ¥5.362 billion ($47.4 million)
WK7: ¥389.1 million ($3.5 million), -10%, ¥6.255 billion ($55.3 million)
WK8: ¥342.0 million ($3.1 million), -12%, ¥7.140 billion ($63.3 million) *Est.*

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Last edited by Corpse on Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:50 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Eighth Weekends
Biggest Eighth Weekends/Eight Week Totals (2001-)

¥1.120 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥695.0 million ($6.3 million), +02%, ¥18.65 billion ($160.8 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥644.9 million ($6.1 million), -08%, ¥15.26 billion ($146.1 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥507.1 million ($5.6 million), -11%, ¥10.97 billion ($121.6 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥505.8 million ($4.2 million), -31%, ¥14.73 billion ($124.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥467.9 million ($4.5 million), -33%, ¥15.41 billion ($150.1 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥455.6 million ($4.6 million), +34%, ¥9.77 billion ($100.2 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥429.7 million ($3.2 million), -44%, ¥17.18 billion ($128.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥424.2 million ($3.5 million), -22%, ¥14.39 billion ($122.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥412.1 million ($3.7 million), +46%, ¥11.56 billion ($104.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥378.1 million ($3.5 million), -26%, ¥13.44 billion ($125.1 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥347.2 million ($3.3 million), -16%, ¥9.93 billion ($93.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥342.0 million ($3.1 million), -12%, ¥7.14 billion ($63.3 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) *Est.*
¥287.0 million ($2.6 million), -05%, ¥10.95 billion ($97.0 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥284.5 million ($2.7 million), -19%, ¥6.53 billion ($60.5 million) - Zootopia (2016)
¥253.6 million ($2.3 million), -16%, ¥6.68 billion ($61.3 million) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥251.6 million ($2.9 million), -09%, ¥9.98 billion ($118.2 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥250.7 million ($1.9 million), -21%, ¥7.79 billion ($59.7 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:50 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Eighth Weekends
Corpse wrote:
Biggest Eighth Weekends/Eight Week Totals (2001-)

¥1.120 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥695.0 million ($6.3 million), +02%, ¥18.65 billion ($160.8 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥644.9 million ($6.1 million), -08%, ¥15.26 billion ($146.1 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥507.1 million ($5.6 million), -11%, ¥10.97 billion ($121.6 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥505.8 million ($4.2 million), -31%, ¥14.73 billion ($124.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥467.9 million ($4.5 million), -33%, ¥15.41 billion ($150.1 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥455.6 million ($4.6 million), +34%, ¥9.77 billion ($100.2 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥429.7 million ($3.2 million), -44%, ¥17.18 billion ($128.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥424.2 million ($3.5 million), -22%, ¥14.39 billion ($122.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥412.1 million ($3.7 million), +46%, ¥11.56 billion ($104.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥378.1 million ($3.5 million), -26%, ¥13.44 billion ($125.1 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥347.2 million ($3.3 million), -16%, ¥9.93 billion ($93.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥342.0 million ($3.1 million), -12%, ¥7.14 billion ($63.3 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) *Est.*
¥287.0 million ($2.6 million), -05%, ¥10.95 billion ($97.0 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥284.5 million ($2.7 million), -19%, ¥6.53 billion ($60.5 million) - Zootopia (2016)
¥253.6 million ($2.3 million), -16%, ¥6.68 billion ($61.3 million) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥251.6 million ($2.9 million), -09%, ¥9.98 billion ($118.2 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥250.7 million ($1.9 million), -21%, ¥7.79 billion ($59.7 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)


I know it was Golden Week and all, but I'm always amazed when I see Frozen on this list. Seems like one of those records that will never be topped again.


Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:59 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: All Time Multipliers
All-Time Best Multipliers (Wide Releases; ¥1 Billion Earners) [1998-]

01. x33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014)
02. x30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. x26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. x26.92 - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
05. x26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
06. x23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008)
07. x20.15 - Bohemian Rhapsody (Nov., 2018) [8 Weeks in Release] *Est.*
08. x19.96 - Les Miserables (Dec., 2012)
09. x17.07 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016)
10. x16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
11. x16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013)
12. x15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
13. x15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
14. x15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
15. x14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
16. x14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
17. x14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
18. x14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
19. x13.96 - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas (July, 2017)
19. x13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
21. x13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
22. x13.64 - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
23. x13.34 - The Greatest Showman (Feb., 2018)
24. x13.20 - Shin Godzilla (July, 2016)
25. x13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
26. x12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
27. x12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013)
28. x12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013)
29. x12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
30. x12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
31. x12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
32. x12.21 - Despicable Me 3 (July, 2017)
33. x12.16 - Wolf Children (July, 2012)


Entries By Month: July (10); December (7); August (3); November (3); January (2); March (2); April (2); February (1); May (1); June (1); September (1); October (0).

Bohemian Rhapsody is only the seventh film, on record, to achieve a multiplier above 20, having hit the incredible milestone after only eight weeks in release. It's going to exceed 25, and likely come very close to 30!

It's also the fastest film to reach a multiplier of 20. Frozen was at 19.14, Spirited Away at 18.56, Avatar at 18.38, and Your Name. at 16.57 after eight weeks.

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Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:26 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/29-30)
Weekend Actuals are going to be delayed...for awhile. New Year and the following Bank Holidays probably mean they'll be available on Friday. I'll post them when available.

In the meantime, I'll post the dailies for New Year's week, using the estimated cumulative totals as I go. Note that New Year's Eve (Monday this year) is typically a "poor" day for the box office during the holiday week, and that January 1st through the 7th is where the real money is generated (1st-3rd, in particular).

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:21 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year Week Daily Estimates
New Year Week Daily Estimates (12/31-01/04)

Monday (12/31): New Year's Eve
¥120 million ($1.1 million), -57%, ¥1.805 billion ($16.4 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Day 11)
¥117 million ($1.1 million), -37%, ¥7.257 billion ($64.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Day 53)
¥x88 million ($794,000), -51%, ¥2.748 billion ($24.6 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Day 18)
¥x61 million ($550,000), -52%, ¥5.686 billion ($50.7 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Day 39)
¥x48 million ($433,000), -67%, ¥903 million ($8.1 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Day 10)
¥x37 million ($333,000), -51%, ¥817 million ($7.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Day 18)
¥x34 million ($307,000), -65%, ¥649 million ($5.8 million), A Star is Born (Day 11)
¥x31 million ($280,000), -70%, ¥891 million ($8.1 million), The Grinch (Day 18)
¥x30 million ($271,000), 0, ¥175 million ($1.6 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Day 04)
¥x12 million ($108,000), -71%, ¥302 million ($2.7 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Day 11


Note: The cumulative totals are estimates using the past weekend's estimates until actuals are available later this week.
% changes versus same day last week.


New Year's Eve isn't technically part of the New Year Holiday Period, and it's much weaker than the upcoming week. Monday is also down a lot versus last Monday, because last Monday was a national holiday (Emperor's Birthday Observance).

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:47 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year's Week Daily Estimates (2019)
Bohemian Rhapsody is doing exceptionally well in Japan. Is Queen's music a thing in Japan today? Is it featured in many local TV shows and movies?

Queen's music was popular in Hong Kong, but I don't think the younger generations in HK are familiar with Freddie Mercury (though they do know or have heard the songs).


Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:14 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year's Week Daily Estimates (2019)
I thought today was supposed to be a huge day but according to Mimorin ticket sales are barely up from last week and considerably lower than yesterday?


Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year's Week Daily Estimates (2019)
Queen was/is a very popular Western act. I don't know any specifics about their popularity, but I know they toured there way back when, and Japanese audiences are very receptive when foreign artists (same goes for actors, or celebrities in general) visit and especially tour or put on an event.

Japan's rapidly aging population is certainly a contributor to Bohemian Rhapsody's success. As of the most recent data I read: 21% of the population is over 70, 28% is over 65, and 34% is over 60. There are now almost more 70+ year-olds than 0-24 year-olds (22%).

The younger generation likely doesn't know much about Queen, but they account for a smaller percentage of the population and of moviegoers each year, that it wouldn't have much of an impact on its box office. And on the topic of music, modern western music artists are virtually unknown in the market in more recent years. Less than a handful (literally) make any yearly top 100 charts, and it's very rare for any of them to climb near the top 50.

Artists like Madonna, Paul McCartney, Mariah Carey, or pretty much any big name from before the 1990s (or right at that time) chart way, way higher when they release new music than any modern western act can hope to ever achieve. Even a bit more "modern" act such as The Backstreet Boys are still significantly more popular than any modern western boy band, and sell/chart much higher.

The same is pretty much true for domestic music, too, just not quite as extreme. Modern artists still do very well, but when a big name from the past releases new music (which is often in Japan), they often outperform any modern act.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:32 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year's Week Daily Estimates (2019)
bullza wrote:
I thought today was supposed to be a huge day but according to Mimorin ticket sales are barely up from last week and considerably lower than yesterday?


Give the day time, it's only 10am on New Year's Day. Business picks up as the day progresses. :thumbsup:

But do not expect numbers well above last week for films that skew younger. The younger skewing films usually stay flat or see small increases this week versus last week. Kids/teens had last week off already, so it's the films that target adults that see the huge boosts this week since they now have a few days off work. The average working adult doesn't really have any time to see a film in theaters until a real day off, such as New Year and the Bank Holidays.

But, unfortunately, a lot of films in release right now do skew younger, so only Bohemian Rhapsody and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald will experience the true New Year week boost and earn those triple digit increases week-to-week.

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Last edited by Corpse on Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year's Week Daily Estimates (2019)
Here are LAST YEAR's New Year Daily Estimates for reference in terms of increases. The Top 10 was more balanced between adult-skewing and younger-skewing films. You'll see that films targeting more adult audiences saw the biggest gains, while films that targeted younger audiences stayed flat/saw smaller gains.


New Year Weekday Estimates (01/01-05, 2018)

Monday (01/01)
¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), +167%, ¥4,790,000,000 ($42.3 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) Day 18
¥95,000,000 ($840,000), +104%, ¥1,845,000,000 ($16.2 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) Day 24
¥60,000,000 ($530,000), +06%, ¥1,260,000,000 ($11.1 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) Day 17
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), -48%, ¥1,425,000,000 ($12.6 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) Day 17
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), +103%, ¥1,195,000,000 ($10.5 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) Day 25
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +16%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($8.8 million), Kamen Rider Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders (Toei) Day 24
¥15,000,000 ($130,000), -63%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) Day 10
¥15,000,000 ($130,000), +79%, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), Kung Fu Yoga (Kadokawa) Day 11
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +13%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($8.9 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) Day 31
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +118%, ¥700,000,000 ($6.1 million), Bar in the Detective 3 (Toei) Day 30


Tuesday (01/02)
¥275,000,000 ($2.4 million), +150%, ¥5,065,000,000 ($44.7 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) Day 19
¥90,000,000 ($795,000), +152%, ¥1,935,000,000 ($17.0 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) Day 25
¥65,000,000 ($575,000), -01%, ¥1,325,000,000 ($11.7 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) Day 18
¥55,000,000 ($485,000), -04%, ¥1,480,000,000 ($13.1 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) Day 18
¥40,000,000 ($355,000), +129%, ¥1,235,000,000 ($10.9 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) Day 26
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +38%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.0 million), Kamen Rider Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders (Toei) Day 25
¥15,000,000 ($130,000), -43%, ¥390,000,000 ($3.4 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) Day 11
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +75%, ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), Kung Fu Yoga (Kadokawa) Day 12
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), +31%, ¥1,010,000,000 ($9.0 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) Day 32
¥8,000,000 ($70,000), +134%, ¥708,000,000 ($6.2 million), Bar in the Detective 3 (Toei) Day 31


Wednesday (01/03)
¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +116%, ¥5,345,000,000 ($47.2 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) Day 20
¥110,000,000 ($970,000), +128%, ¥2,045,000,000 ($18.0 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) Day 26
¥80,000,000 ($705,000), -02%, ¥1,405,000,000 ($12.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) Day 19
¥75,000,000 ($660,000), +28%, ¥1,555,000,000 ($13.8 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) Day 19
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), +86%, ¥1,280,000,000 ($11.3 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) Day 27
¥30,000,000 ($265,000), +34%, ¥1,055,000,000 ($9.3 million), Kamen Rider Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders (Toei) Day 26
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), -15%, ¥415,000,000 ($3.6 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) Day 12
¥15,000,000 ($130,000), +53%, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Kung Fu Yoga (Kadokawa) Day 13
¥15,000,000 ($130,000), +24%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.1 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) Day 33
¥9,000,000 ($80,000), +109%, ¥717,000,000 ($6.3 million), Bar in the Detective 3 (Toei) Day 32


Thursday (01/04)
¥185,000,000 ($1.6 million), +24%, ¥5,530,000,000 ($48.8 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) Day 21
¥75,000,000 ($665,000), +63%, ¥2,120,000,000 ($18.7 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) Day 27
¥70,000,000 ($620,000), +06%, ¥1,475,000,000 ($13.0 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) Day 20
¥65,000,000 ($575,000), +08%, ¥1,620,000,000 ($14.4 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) Day 20
¥30,000,000 ($265,000), +33%, ¥1,310,000,000 ($11.6 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) Day 28
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), -11%, ¥440,000,000 ($3.8 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) Day 13
¥25,000,000 ($220,000), +20%, ¥1,080,000,000 ($9.5 million), Kamen Rider Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders (Toei) Day 27
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), -01%, ¥1,035,000,000 ($9.2 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) Day 34
¥9,000,000 ($80,000), +18%, ¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), Kung Fu Yoga (Kadokawa) Day 14
¥7,000,000 ($60,000), +43%, ¥725,000,000 ($6.4 million), Bar in the Detective 3 (Toei) Day 33


Friday (01/05)
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) NEW
¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), -58%, ¥5,645,000,000 ($49.8 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) Day 22
¥50,000,000 ($445,000), -47%, ¥1,525,000,000 ($13.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) Day 21
¥50,000,000 ($445,000), -43%, ¥1,670,000,000 ($14.8 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) Day 21
¥45,000,000 ($400,000), -36%, ¥2,165,000,000 ($19.1 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) Day 28
¥20,000,000 ($175,000), -48%, ¥460,000,000 ($4.0 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) Day 14
¥20,000,000 ($175,000), -54%, ¥1,330,000,000 ($11.8 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) Day 29
¥15,000,000 ($130,000), -61%, ¥1,095,000,000 ($9.6 million), Kamen Rider Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders (Toei) Day 28
¥10,000,000 ($90,000), 0, ¥10,000,000 ($90,000), We Make Antiques (Gaga) NEW
¥6,000,000 ($55,000), -61%, ¥1,040,000,000 ($9.3 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) Day 35


% Changes Versus Same Day Last Week.

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Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year's Week Daily Estimates (2019)
So as an estimate, if Broly did ¥293 million for the weekend then what could it be looking at for Monday to Wednesday?

Because with you saying that each day could rival a weekend and that Monday to Wednesday could double or even triple the weekend, I was thinking it was maybe good for ¥200 million a day at least.

But now it's fallen quite far behind where it was last week by 11am and it only did about ¥73 million last Tuesday.

Nevermind it rivalling the weekend, it's barely gonna rival last Tuesday at this rate.


Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:04 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year's Week Daily Estimates (2019)
bullza wrote:
So as an estimate, if Broly did ¥293 million for the weekend then what could it be looking at for Monday to Wednesday?

Because with you saying that each day could rival a weekend I was thinking it was maybe good for ¥200 million a day at least.

But now it's fallen quite far behind where it was last week by 11am and it only did about ¥73 million last Tuesday.

Nevermind it rivalling the weekend, it's barely gonna rival last Tuesday at this rate.


Not for Broly. It doesn't skew old enough to receive a more significant boost, and it's a naturally frontloaded film. The Dragon Ball franchise is one of the more frontloaded series in the market, and New Year or not, holidays don't provide too much benefit for films like this -- they don't suddenly gain thousands or millions of new viewers.

You're jumping the gun by comparing today versus last Tuesday. Only 20-25% of showings have concluded, and I promise business picks up in the evening during holiday periods. New Year is one of the biggest days of the year, but few are going to get up and attend an AM showing after New Year's Eve. I even believe some theaters open an hour or two later on New Year's Day. Just have a little more patience and wait for a fuller picture. :)

The thing is, not many films are targeting adults this New Year. The only true one that is probably attracting an 80%+ adult share (35 year-old+) is Bohemian Rhapsody, so it's going to benefit from the holidays the most. The younger skewing films sort of split their New Year benefit with last week since their audience was free to go to the movies already.

But, I'd say...maybe around ¥350-400 million for Broly from Monday to Thursday (Thursday will be a big day, too, since it's the last Bank Holiday). That isn't a confident projection, though, because it's the New Year period just began a few hours ago and it's hard to determine how it's affecting Broly at the moment.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:18 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: New Year's Week Daily Estimates (2019)
Would it reassure you if I said I'm 90% certain that Broly will outgross Resurrection F?

The only concern I really have in it not doing so is if it sees large screen/showtime cuts in a couple weeks.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:38 pm
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