Both these movies had lower theatre count than Bad Samaritan which in comparison is doing worst of the lot.

Rth has 46-48m for Saturday.

The low end of that will be close to Avenger's 47% Saturday jump and I guess it is expected with what Mike mentioned about Cinco De Mayo.

Tully would have opened to $1m without Charlize.

I was hoping for a 50 mil Sat. Oh well 115 mil second weekend still pretty great.

Rth has updated the IW's Saturday numbers to $46.5m. There is a good chance IW's weekend comes in lower than BP's 2nd weekend.

So other than the massive opening weekend AIW has not really out performed BP. I wonder how massive BP opening weekend would have been if the OW theater count was even. Black Panther 4,020 vs Infinity War 4,474

I think Movie Pass removing the repeat viewing option is hurting this movie

Haha. I love how PT so easily dismisses the massive opening weekend (not to mention that it wins in 2nd weekend comparisons too). IW burnt off more demand on the opening weekend, so naturally its holds would be worse. But there is only one thing that matters and that's total gross. After 10 days, IW is still way ahead of BP ($47m ahead, in fact), and 7 of those 10 days it has had a higher gross than BP. It's doing fine, and it should stabilize on its third weekend. It took BP 15 days to reach $450m, IW clears it in just ten.

IW is doing good but it will not have the incredible holds BP had. Should end its run with 630 to 660 million domestically.

As long as it tops TA that's a win IMO and it's already significantly ahead of that movie OS and will be WW, but it should be obvious by now that it won't have BP legs. Not that it was going to anyways because casuals could easily go into that movie without seeing any of the previous Marvel films, and that also helps immensely with repeat viewings.

We'll see.... It's got 11 days before it's legs get destroyed in back to back weekends. If IW is not at 650m+ by then Total Gross "race" will go to BP which should be at 700m+

Such a joke Overboard only opened in 1,600 theaters. Obviously it should expand next weekend but it will face direct competition from the two openers. Could have opened stronger this weekend in more theaters. The studio mainly targeted Hispanic moviegoers but with such a subdued wide release they clearly figured they wouldn't reach much of a Caucasian audience. The audience for How To Be A Latin Lover was 89% Hispanic while only 41% for Overboard. It had way more crossover appeal.

^ Agreed. It was a mistake opening Overboard in a barely wide release. It could have crossed $20m+ OW if it was a wider release.

Well a Marvel movie (BP) just survived another one (AIW) so who is to say it won't happen again? They could easily do double drive-ins specially with a deal already in works between the studios. Which could benefit AIW in the end. Solo's weekend is MD weekend and I think AIW can survive. I don't think "destroyed" is the right word here.

Plus this Saturday was subdued to the Cinco De Mayo which could result in better than expected 3rd weekend hold plus a slight Mother's Day boost (boys also have Mom's )

My mom has been catching up on the Marvel films, but she cried at the end of Age of Ultron, so I don't know if I would be a good son taking her. (She was inconsolable after Guardians of the Galaxy)

It depends if it was a good crying or bad Plus its not just us but there are under-10 boys who the Mom's would take to movies on Mother's Day and they "might" pick Avengers for the kids happiness

Awww probably not a good idea lol

The true point is not what's their total gross after x or y days. They're both box office sensations that will likely end their run with a similar total. BP was unexpectedly huge as it became a must-see for every afro-american and easily beat the other MCU solo movies even WW, though it received a strong help by March's wasteland. IW has not the handicap of being a solo, but it still broke the OW record and is going to be the only MCU film to approach 2B WW - and it certainly has to face much more competition than BP did.
The point is PT's unpleasant attitude: every movie's performance is a priori worse than the one of his beloved BP, and when it isn't (IW's case) he has to dismiss it and root against it.

Less than 1% of the people that watched Bad Samaritan's trailer actually bought a ticket. Should effectively render the trailer view method defunct, if it wasn't already.

It depends on the film. It's still a method that is being fine tuned.

This is silly. Because one film, who barely anybody even heard of, had a weirdly high trailer view count?

Name some films where the trailer views indisputably directed an accurate prediction.

I'm with Algren on this one. I think its depends on the movie. Bad Samaritan is also Electric Entertainment's first wide release maybe that could be the reason for high trailer view count?

And apparently there was some kind of promotion which clearly didn't equate to tickets sold. I've long been refining my Youtube data to delineate clear trends but it's still early stage. It seems most effective when comparing two or more releases opening (or have opened) in close proximity from major studios. These small-tier studios are all over the map.

My point was basically 18 million views is a heck of a lot and it translated to nothing.