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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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My local theater is having a midnight show for this. I might try and go.
_________________
See above.
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:42 pm |
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Star Wars
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 1:18 pm
Posts: 1638
Location: Alderaan
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RogueCommander wrote: My local theater is having a midnight show for this. I might try and go. "Do or do not, there is no try."
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:45 pm |
 
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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StarWarsEpisode7 wrote: MG Casey wrote: StarWarsEpisode7 wrote: Opening Weekend: $170 million You know that's literally impossible. If every show in the entire nation was 100% full, I doubt it could get this high. I bet in 1997 if I said "Titanic will make $1.8 billion worldwide!" you would also say "You know that's literally impossible!" No I meant capacity-wise. I wouldn't eliminate a total gross like that, but over a 3-day weekend, there is a limit.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 10:54 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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StarWarsEpisode7 wrote: RogueCommander wrote: My local theater is having a midnight show for this. I might try and go. "Do or do not, there is no try." No, in this case it is "I will try to schedule myself some time to go". So there.
_________________
See above.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 11:18 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Let's say Revenge of the Sith opens in 3,300 theaters, which seems pretty reasonable considering the lack of direct May 19 competition (in fact, it might suck theaters away from Longest Yard and Madagascar). Episode III would need a per-screen-average of $52,000. This just in: Lucas and Spielberg have combined fortunes to sell out every screen in the country.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 12:02 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32596
Location: the last free city
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all ROTS has to do is best AOTC 4 day take of $110m by at least $30 mill.  and it will.
1st wknd (4 day) $140m
2nd wknd (4 day) $84m
3rd wknd (3day) $32m
$290-$310m by end of 3rd wknd (including midweek #'s)  wouldn't that be great.
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 12:11 am |
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TonyMontana
Undisputed WoKJ DVD King
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 8:55 am
Posts: 16278
Location: Counting the 360 ways I love my Xbox
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This movie will play well to the hardcore internet crowd and diehard SW fans, but I don't think it will snag Ma and Pa middle America as much or the younger kids. It'll do well, but I think it's being overpredicted on the whole here.
The dark story (presumably with a downer ending), the lukewarm reception to AOTC & TPM, and a PG-13 rating should keep it far away from $400 million total.
3-Day: $78 million
Total: $255 million
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 4:06 pm |
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Anonymous
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See, I don't understand why Lucas doesn't just change the ending. Let the wookie win.
Plaid shirt assclown.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 4:22 pm |
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TonyMontana
Undisputed WoKJ DVD King
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 8:55 am
Posts: 16278
Location: Counting the 360 ways I love my Xbox
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loyalfromlondon wrote: See, I don't understand why Lucas doesn't just change the ending. Let the wookie win.
Plaid shirt assclown. Lucas could end the flick with a small upper while keeping it in line with the sequels. For example, obviously Vader and the Emporer will prevail and slaughter most of the Jedis, but while doing their victory dance they could slip and fall into a pile of cow shit (or some funky SW animal dung). Follow that with a corny one-liner from a dying Jedi... "eat shit, Vader"... or something like that. It works for movies like the Pacifier, and it would play well to the younger kids. _________________
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 4:32 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Has anyone read the script? I was wondering if it had an actual feel of an ending to an epic. The 2006 TV show series leaves me to think Lucas is saving more stuff for it. Not having the true ending spirit where everything seems solved and connected would confuse some audience.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:07 pm |
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Anonymous
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 Code:
all $ are in millions.
Op- Opening Memorial 3day 3day 3day Dom- Over WW
en- Weekend Weekend 2nd OW % OW es- seas Ttl
ing (thu-sun) (fri-mon) wknd of Mult tic Ttl
Day 3day 4day 3day 4day drop Ttl iply Ttl
======================================================================
Algren ? 65 ? ? ? ? 22% 4.6 301 ? ?
MG Casey 26 81 107 ? ? ? 36% 2.8 227 ? ?
Korrgan ? 105 ? ? ? ? 31% 3.2 338 ? ?
Nebs 40 106 146 ? ? ? 26% 3.9 411 ? ?
matatonio 35 95 130 ? ? ? 28% 3.5 335 365 700
Snickety Snack 2 ? 87 ? ? ? ? 29% 3.4 297 ? ?
Dr. Lecter 36 91 127 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 338 ? ?
Amer ? ? 138 ? ? ? ? ? 406 ? ?
BJ 43 121 164 62 81 ? 29% 3.4 416 464 880
ShadyMilkman ? 102 ? ? ? ? 25% 4.0 405 ? ?
neo wolf ? 90 ? ? ? ? 27% 3.7 330 ? ?
RogueCommander 37 82 119 ? ? ? 28% 3.5 290 ? ?
Daniel Raedts ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 525 ? ?
ChipMunky ? 115 ? ? ? ? 21% 4.7 537 ? ?
DP07 34 84 118 37 ? ? 32% 3.1 260 310 570
Maverikk ? ? 125 ? ? ? ? ? 350 ? ?
hans 40 99 139 58 72 ? 26% 3.8 375 ? ?
jb007 ? 96 ? ? ? ? 21% 4.8 462 ? ?
Riggs27 ? 94 ? ? ? ? 29% 3.5 327 ? ?
Samweis Gamdschie ? 93 ? ? ? ? 32% 3.1 291 ? ?
Nazgul9 ? ? 130 ? ? ? ? ? 350 ? ?
MikeQ. ? 95 ? ? ? ? 32% 3.2 300 ? ?
FILMO 36 90 126 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 332 444 776
want2write 35 95 130 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 330 ? ?
insomniacdude 35 95 130 ? ? ? 24% 4.1 390 ? ?
Ragnarok 38 87 125 ? ? ? 31% 3.2 282 ? ?
El_masked_este.. ? 95 ? ? ? ? 33% 3.0 288 ? ?
Squee ? 87 ? ? ? ? 27% 3.8 327 ? ?
Impact 47 112 159 68 90 ? 29% 3.5 390 510 900
revolutions 40 90 130 ? ? ? 25% 3.9 355 470 825
moviedude ? 95 ? ? ? ? 38% 2.6 250 ? ?
scottb 40 109 149 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 408 478 886
Zingaling 36 97 133 ? ? ? 30% 3.3 321 ? ?
Futureboy ? 103 ? ? ? ? 30% 3.4 345 465 810
Killuminati510 ? ? 120 ? ? ? ? ? 355 ? ?
BKB The Man 35 85 120 ? ? ? 25% 4.0 340 ? ?
Jon Lyrik ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 290 ? ?
rusty 33 105 138 ? ? ? 26% 3.9 410 ? ?
nghtvsn 33 95 128 ? ? ? 30% 3.4 321 ? ?
Terminator1997 36 101 137 ? ? ? 23% 4.3 434 510 944
addrOck ? ? 125 ? ? ? ? ? 400 ? ?
Legend of Jam 35 105 140 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 363 ? ?
Positive Jon 37 97 134 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 363 387 750
JMorphin 40 100 140 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
StarWarsEpisode7 80 170 250 ? ? ? 16% 6.4 1093 ? ?
TonyMontana ? 78 ? ? ? ? 31% 3.3 255 ? ?
=====================================================================
average 38 96 135 53 80 -46% 28% 3.7 364 429 787
high 80 170 250 68 90 -56% 38% 6.4 1093 510 944
low 26 65 107 37 72 -39% 16% 2.6 227 310 570
=====================================================================
TPM actual 29 65 106^ 51 67 -22% 15% 6.6 431 493 924
AOTC actual 30 80 110 48 60 -40% 26% 3.9 311 339 650
^ 106 is a 5-day total as TPM opened on wednesday. AOTC opened
on thursday and ROTS will also open on thursday.
opening weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is thu-sun.
memorial day weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is fri-mon.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:24 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Time to update my predictions....
Opening Day: $41.0
3-Day Weekend: $84.5
4-Day Weekend: $125.5
2nd Weekend Drop: -35%
3rd Weekend Drop: -65%
Domestic Total: $239.0
Wordwide Total: $625.0
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:32 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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MG Casey wrote: Time to update my predictions....
Opening Day: $41.0
3-Day Weekend: $84.5
4-Day Weekend: $125.5
2nd Weekend Drop: -35%
3rd Weekend Drop: -65%
Domestic Total: $239.0
Wordwide Total: $625.0 To open with 40m but not have an opening wknd over 90m I think would be highly unrealistic, and once again the top out is under 250m therefor I feel that it is extremely unrealistic. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:50 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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MG Casey wrote: Time to update my predictions....
Opening Day: $41.0
3-Day Weekend: $84.5
4-Day Weekend: $125.5
2nd Weekend Drop: -35%
3rd Weekend Drop: -65%
Domestic Total: $239.0
Wordwide Total: $625.0 To open with 40m but not have an opening wknd over 90m I think would be highly unrealistic, and once again the top out is under 250m therefor I feel that it is extremely unrealistic. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:50 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Doesn't it open on a Thursday? I could be wrong, but that's what I thought the 4-Day predictions were for.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:51 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Thursday: $41.0
Friday: $26.7 (-35%)
Saturday: $31.2 (+20%)
Sunday: $25.6 (-20%)
Something like that...
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:55 pm |
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Amos
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 10:54 pm
Posts: 1585
Location: New Zealand
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MG Casey wrote: Thursday: $41.0
Friday: $26.7 (-35%)
Saturday: $31.2 (+20%)
Sunday: $25.6 (-20%)
Something like that... I think that's reasonable - with all the midnight and early morning shows, Sith should have a massive opening day and it's unlikely to sustain that over the next few days.
Time to very slightly revise mine (which seem to have disappeared from the schedule of predictions 
Opening Day:$38m
3-Day:$83m
4-Day: $121m
Second Week Drop: 45.5%
Total Gross: $324m
Overseas: $365m
Worldwide: $691m
_________________
Cut My Milk!
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 6:12 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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MG Casey wrote: Thursday: $41.0
Friday: $26.7 (-35%)
Saturday: $31.2 (+20%)
Sunday: $25.6 (-20%)
Something like that... bleh, -35% on a friday :???: even with frontloading I think it would take money off the saturday instead of the friday. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 6:18 pm |
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Spidey
Teenage Dream
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:13 pm
Posts: 10678
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I might see Star Wars: Episode 3 at a 1AM showing Wednesday night.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 7:15 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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BJ wrote: MG Casey wrote: Thursday: $41.0
Friday: $26.7 (-35%)
Saturday: $31.2 (+20%)
Sunday: $25.6 (-20%)
Something like that... bleh, -35% on a friday :???: even with frontloading I think it would take money off the saturday instead of the friday. Look at the other big movies... The Phantom Menace dropped 56% on its second day, and Return of the King dropped 50%. Attack of the Clones dropped 19%, but there is going to be a ton more people seeing it opening day from just looking how excited you guys are getting.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 7:21 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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BJ wrote: MG Casey wrote: Thursday: $41.0
Friday: $26.7 (-35%)
Saturday: $31.2 (+20%)
Sunday: $25.6 (-20%)
Something like that... bleh, -35% on a friday :???: even with frontloading I think it would take money off the saturday instead of the friday.  never mind that, I just checked out the Matrix reloaded and it fell 26% if you add the money the took off its opening day. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 7:28 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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MG Casey wrote: BJ wrote: MG Casey wrote: Thursday: $41.0
Friday: $26.7 (-35%)
Saturday: $31.2 (+20%)
Sunday: $25.6 (-20%)
Something like that... bleh, -35% on a friday :???: even with frontloading I think it would take money off the saturday instead of the friday. Look at the other big movies... The Phantom Menace dropped 56% on its second day, and Return of the King dropped 50%. Attack of the Clones dropped 19%, but there is going to be a ton more people seeing it opening day from just looking how excited you guys are getting. I would not go by Wednesday openers seeing as they have two days of release before there opening wknd, but attack of the clones is a good example. I feel the best example would be the matrix reloaded (which is the true opening day record holder), it fell 26% on friday after a robust 42.5m opening day. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 7:32 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Episode III will be frontloaded on opening day. There's no question about that.
Thursday: $40 million
Friday: $30 million (-25%)
Saturday: $36 million (+20%)
Sunday: $27 million (-25%)
4-Day Total: $133 million
That'd be my rough estimate at the moment.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 7:35 pm |
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Anonymous
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Code:
all $ are in millions.
Op- Opening Memorial 3day 3day 3day Dom- Over WW
en- Weekend Weekend 2nd OW % OW es- seas Ttl
ing (thu-sun) (fri-mon) wknd of Mult tic Ttl
Day 3day 4day 3day 4day drop Ttl iply Ttl
======================================================================
Algren ? 65 ? ? ? ? 22% 4.6 301 ? ?
MG Casey 41 84 125 55 ? 35% 35% 2.8 239 386 625
Korrgan ? 105 ? ? ? ? 31% 3.2 338 ? ?
Nebs 40 106 146 ? ? ? 26% 3.9 411 ? ?
matatonio 35 95 130 ? ? 46% 28% 3.5 335 365 700
Snickety Snack 2 ? 87 ? ? ? ? 29% 3.4 297 ? ?
Dr. Lecter 36 91 127 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 338 ? ?
Amer ? ? 138 ? ? ? ? ? 406 ? ?
BJ 43 121 164 62 81 49% 29% 3.4 416 464 880
ShadyMilkman ? 102 ? ? ? ? 25% 4.0 405 ? ?
neo wolf ? 90 ? ? ? ? 27% 3.7 330 ? ?
RogueCommander 37 82 119 ? ? ? 28% 3.5 290 ? ?
Daniel Raedts ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 525 ? ?
ChipMunky ? 115 ? ? ? ? 21% 4.7 537 ? ?
DP07 34 84 118 37 ? 56% 32% 3.1 260 310 570
Maverikk ? ? 125 ? ? ? ? ? 350 ? ?
hans 40 99 139 58 72 41% 26% 3.8 375 ? ?
jb007 ? 96 ? ? ? ? 21% 4.8 462 ? ?
Riggs27 ? 94 ? ? ? ? 29% 3.5 327 ? ?
Samweis Gamdschie ? 93 ? ? ? ? 32% 3.1 291 ? ?
Nazgul9 ? ? 130 ? ? ? ? ? 350 ? ?
MikeQ. ? 95 ? ? ? ? 32% 3.2 300 ? ?
FILMO 36 90 126 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 332 444 776
want2write 35 95 130 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 330 ? ?
insomniacdude 35 95 130 ? ? ? 24% 4.1 390 ? ?
Ragnarok 38 87 125 ? ? ? 31% 3.2 282 ? ?
El_masked_este.. ? 95 ? ? ? ? 33% 3.0 288 ? ?
Squee ? 87 ? ? ? ? 27% 3.8 327 ? ?
Impact 47 112 159 68 90 39% 29% 3.5 390 510 900
revolutions 40 90 130 ? ? ? 25% 3.9 355 470 825
moviedude ? 95 ? ? ? ? 38% 2.6 250 ? ?
scottb 40 109 149 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 408 478 886
Zingaling 40 93 133 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 321 ? ?
Futureboy ? 103 ? ? ? ? 30% 3.4 345 465 810
Killuminati510 ? ? 120 ? ? ? ? ? 355 ? ?
BKB The Man 35 85 120 ? ? ? 25% 4.0 340 ? ?
Jon Lyrik ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 290 ? ?
rusty 33 105 138 ? ? ? 26% 3.9 410 ? ?
nghtvsn 33 95 128 ? ? ? 30% 3.4 321 ? ?
Terminator1997 36 101 137 ? ? ? 23% 4.3 434 510 944
addrOck ? ? 125 ? ? ? ? ? 400 ? ?
Legend of Jam 35 105 140 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 363 ? ?
Positive Jon 37 97 134 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 363 387 750
Amos 38 83 121 45 ? 46% 26% 3.9 324 365 691
Steve 38 97 135 ? ? ? 31% 3.2 315 ? ?
Erendis 38 86 124 ? 75 ? 26% 3.8 325 350 375
baumer72 35 85 120 ? ? ? 23% 4.4 375 475 850
JMorphin 40 100 140 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
StarWarsEpisode7 80 170 250 ? ? ? 16% 6.4 1093 ? ?
TonyMontana ? 78 ? ? ? ? 31% 3.3 255 ? ?
=====================================================================
average 39 96 136 53 80 -45% 28% 3.7 364 426 777
high 80 170 250 68 90 -56% 38% 6.4 1093 510 944
low 26 65 107 37 72 -39% 16% 2.6 227 310 570
=====================================================================
TPM actual 29 65 106^ 51 67 -22% 15% 6.6 431 493 924
AOTC actual 30 80 110 48 60 -40% 26% 3.9 311 339 650
^ 106 is a 5-day total as TPM opened on wednesday. AOTC opened
on thursday and ROTS will also open on thursday.
opening weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is thu-sun.
memorial day weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is fri-mon.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 10:56 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Opening Day: $37 million
3-Day Weekend: $93 million
4-Day Weekend: $130 million
2nd Weekend Drop: -29%
3rd Weekend Drop: -40%
Domestic Total: $350 million
Worldwide Total: $730 million
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| Wed Apr 20, 2005 1:59 am |
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