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JMorphin
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:58 am
Posts: 1335
Location: Austin, TX
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My top 10 summer movies:
Madagascar - 333 million
Star Wars 3 - 321 million
War of the Worlds - 246 million
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - 222 million
Batman Begins - 155 million
Mr. & Mrs. Smith - 144 million
Fantastic Four - 133 million
XXX2 - 128 million
Bewitched - 121 million
The Longest Yard - 100 million
_________________
"Do or do not, there is no try."
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 11:40 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Am I the only one who has never seen a decent reaction to a Madagascar trailer, and has even heard groans?
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 12:17 am |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
Posts: 3917
Location: Las Vegas
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The Dark Shape wrote: Am I the only one who has never seen a decent reaction to a Madagascar trailer, and has even heard groans? Yes. We can talk more when it cleans up at the box office.
_________________
Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006
The Greatest Actor Ever.
Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 12:18 am |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Define "cleaning up." Would somewhere between Robots and Shark Tale meet that description? Especially since, as Dreamworks is so adept at marketing their CGI films as 'hip' and 'cool', 60% of its target audience is probably going to be drawn closer to The Longest Yard.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 1:56 am |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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The Dark Shape wrote: Define "cleaning up." Would somewhere between Robots and Shark Tale meet that description? Especially since, as Dreamworks is so adept at marketing their CGI films as 'hip' and 'cool', 60% of its target audience is probably going to be drawn closer to The Longest Yard. Probably more, theres no other high profile kids movie coming out around that time, doesnt matter if it sucks or not. I highly doubt it'll make more then Incredibles though, and probably wont have nearly as good of wom ( looks pretty bad ) so I can see it topping out around 220-250. Could do alot less though, like I said so far not much talk about it and it doesnt look nearly as good as Incredibles, so will have to see. _________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:00 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Other than a few laughs when I saw Robots, I haven't heard many great reactions for Madagascar. That's why I'm predicting it to total around $240M, because it's still a CGI kids movie during the summer opening on Memorial Day weekend.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:31 am |
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cujoy
Speed Racer
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:16 pm
Posts: 164
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 baumer72 wrote: I don't see how Sith makes anything less than 300 mill. All of you guys predicting that it will pull in Reloaded kind of numbers are forgetting the geek factor. Geekdom will alone push this to 250 mill. Then you have guys like me. Not on the same level as geekdom as the SW loonies, but did grow up loving the OT and can't wait to see Obi Wan and Anakin go at it..can't wait to see Darth Vader and can't wait to see the true power of the Sith. This alone should vault SW into the 300 mill range. So having said that, I think it will make about 330 mill....followed closely by War of the World. Yes, the Geek factor will always carry a movie far, as it did for Reloaded. Matrix and Star Wars are probably about equal in the hype factor. (In 2003, the Matrix hype was totally off the scale!)
But the biggest reason that SITH will make more then Reloaded, is the KID factor. Reloaded had an R rating. SITH will be PG. Plus, Lucas has been very succesful in marketing his movies to the little ones, so, I imagine they'll be coming out in droves. The other reason is the AGE of Star Wars has left it a much larger and multi generational fanbase, whereas Matrix only had a few years to build a fanbase before Reloaded was issued. Star Wars will definetly cross $300M.
_________________
My Favorite Movies 2005: Crash, Sky High, Narnia
Beating a Drum for: DaVinci Code, Cars, Pirates of the Carribbean II
Last edited by cujoy on Mon Apr 18, 2005 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 8:08 am |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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mine:
1. Episode III 390
2. War of the Worlds 250
3. Madagasscar 220
4. Batman Begins 220
5. The Island 170
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory 160
7. Fantastic Four 130
8. Cinderella Man 125
9. Longest Yard 120
10. Kingdom of Heaven 115
_________________
Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 11:57 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Your Final Summer Top 10 Predictions MG Casey wrote: Post your summer top ten here. After the summer, we can gloat or be ashamed of our predictions. This thread may be already here in another form, but I couldn't find one.
Mine:
My extended and revised predictions:
1. War of the Worlds - $358.8 million
2. Madagascar - $255.0 million
3. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $247.0 million
4. Star Wars: Episode III - $238.5 million
5. Bewitched - $178.0 million
6. The Longest Yard - $141.0 million
7. The Island - $133.3 million
8. Batman Begins - $120.5 million
9. Stealth - $120.0 million
10. Kingdom of Heaven - $115.0 million
11. The Adventures of Shark Boy & Lava Girl in 3-D - $95.0 million
12. The Dukes of Hazzard - $94.5 million
13. The Wedding Crashers - $88.0 million
14. Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $77.8 million
15. Monster-In-Law - $70.0 million
16. xXx: State of the Union - $70.0 million
17. Fantastic Four - $65.0 million
18. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - $65.0 million
19. Herbie: Fully Loaded - $60.0 million
20. Deuce Bigalow: European Gigalow - $55.0 million
By Opening:
1. War of the Worlds - $90.0 million
2. Star Wars: Episode III - $85.0 million
3. Madagascar - $63.0 million
4. Batman Begins - $52.0 million
5. Bewitched - $48.8 million
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $47.8 million
7. The Longest Yard - $44.0 million
8. The Island - $40.0 million
9. Kingdom of Heaven - $35.5 million
10. Stealth - $34.5 million
11. xXx: State of the Union - $32.0 million
12. The Dukes of Hazzard - $31.0 million I find this prediction to be unrealisticaly low  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 12:12 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Your Final Summer Top 10 Predictions BJ wrote: MG Casey wrote: Post your summer top ten here. After the summer, we can gloat or be ashamed of our predictions. This thread may be already here in another form, but I couldn't find one.
Mine:
My extended and revised predictions:
1. War of the Worlds - $358.8 million
2. Madagascar - $255.0 million
3. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $247.0 million
4. Star Wars: Episode III - $238.5 million
5. Bewitched - $178.0 million
6. The Longest Yard - $141.0 million
7. The Island - $133.3 million
8. Batman Begins - $120.5 million
9. Stealth - $120.0 million
10. Kingdom of Heaven - $115.0 million
11. The Adventures of Shark Boy & Lava Girl in 3-D - $95.0 million
12. The Dukes of Hazzard - $94.5 million
13. The Wedding Crashers - $88.0 million
14. Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $77.8 million
15. Monster-In-Law - $70.0 million
16. xXx: State of the Union - $70.0 million
17. Fantastic Four - $65.0 million
18. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - $65.0 million
19. Herbie: Fully Loaded - $60.0 million
20. Deuce Bigalow: European Gigalow - $55.0 million
By Opening:
1. War of the Worlds - $90.0 million
2. Star Wars: Episode III - $85.0 million
3. Madagascar - $63.0 million
4. Batman Begins - $52.0 million
5. Bewitched - $48.8 million
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $47.8 million
7. The Longest Yard - $44.0 million
8. The Island - $40.0 million
9. Kingdom of Heaven - $35.5 million
10. Stealth - $34.5 million
11. xXx: State of the Union - $32.0 million
12. The Dukes of Hazzard - $31.0 million I find this prediction to be unrealisticaly low I would be ok with 250m+ but anything under seems highly unrealistic _________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 12:15 pm |
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Jmart
Superman: The Movie
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am
Posts: 21230
Location: Massachusetts
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Here are my out-of-wack, and sure to be overblown/horrible predictions.
01. 5.19.05 - Star Wars: Episode III - $370.8
02. 6.29.05 - War of the Worlds - $323.6
03. 5.27.05 - Madagascar - $296.6
04. 6.17.05 - Batman Begins - $216.3
05. 7.15.05 - Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $190.5 (Similiar to his remake of Planet of the Apes)
06. 5.27.05 - The Longest Yard - $141.5
07. 7.22.05 - The Island - $139.8
08. 6.24.05 - Bewitched - $134.6
09. 7.08.05 - Fantastic Four - $117.5
10. 6.24.05 - Herbie: Fully Loaded - $106.4
11. 5.06.05 - Kingdom of Heaven - $95.2
12. 7.15.05 - The Wedding Crashers - $93.2
13. 6.10.05 - Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $90.7
14. 4.29.05 - xXx: State of the Union - $89.3
15. 7.29.05 - Stealth - $81.6
16. 8.05.05 - The Dukes of Hazzard - $72.4
17. 8.12.05 - Deuce Bigalow: European Gigalow - $67.4
18. 5.13.05 - Monster-In-Law - $64.8
19. 6.10.05 - The Adventures of Shark Boy & Lava Girl in 3-D - $59.5
20. 6.03.05 - Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - $25.8
_________________My DVD Collection
Marty McGee (1989-2005)
If I’m not here, I’m on Letterboxd.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:02 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: Your Final Summer Top 10 Predictions BJ wrote: I find this prediction to be unrealisticaly low Well, the percent decline from Episode I to Episode II is around 29%. Another similar decline would put it at $217 million. The darkest of the original trilogy, The Empire Strikes Back, made $209 million.
The hugest comparison is the Harry Potter films. The first two weren't that loved by internet users, but were generally viewed as OK or good by the audience. Same with the prequels. Now the third one of each series is the darkest and viewed as the best (I'm expecting super fanboys to rave about it endlessly). Harry Potter 3 made less that Harry Potter 2, but not that much less considering it moved to summer, and had better weekdays than the winter-released Harry Potter 2.
I don't see any reason for Episode III to increase EXCEPT it is the "last one", but I feel Episode III won't have a real climatic theme, considering there's a TV show next year showing what we didn't see. That means things people are expecting to happen in the movie WON'T happen, and that will be slightly disappointing. Most people then won't know a TV show is coming.
All these factors point torward a decline.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:21 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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I agree with a lot of what MG Casey says above but would add that Sith might get a lot of default family movie business because of the unusually weak slate of family movies this summer. There's no Nemo or Shrek on the horizon. So Sith might get a lot of family movie dollars that wuold have gone to movies of that type.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 7:05 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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That's about the only real reason I think it can get close to 275 million, because of the family business. With it being darker though, I think it will turn off some for a lighter movie, Madagascar and even The Longest Yard.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 9:37 pm |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
Posts: 3917
Location: Las Vegas
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The Dark Shape wrote: Define "cleaning up." Would somewhere between Robots and Shark Tale meet that description? Especially since, as Dreamworks is so adept at marketing their CGI films as 'hip' and 'cool', 60% of its target audience is probably going to be drawn closer to The Longest Yard. $225M +
_________________
Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006
The Greatest Actor Ever.
Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
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| Mon Apr 18, 2005 9:48 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Your Final Summer Top 10 Predictions MG Casey wrote: BJ wrote: I find this prediction to be unrealisticaly low Well, the percent decline from Episode I to Episode II is around 29%. Another similar decline would put it at $217 million. The darkest of the original trilogy, The Empire Strikes Back, made $209 million. The hugest comparison is the Harry Potter films. The first two weren't that loved by internet users, but were generally viewed as OK or good by the audience. Same with the prequels. Now the third one of each series is the darkest and viewed as the best (I'm expecting super fanboys to rave about it endlessly). Harry Potter 3 made less that Harry Potter 2, but not that much less considering it moved to summer, and had better weekdays than the winter-released Harry Potter 2. I don't see any reason for Episode III to increase EXCEPT it is the "last one", but I feel Episode III won't have a real climatic theme, considering there's a TV show next year showing what we didn't see. That means things people are expecting to happen in the movie WON'T happen, and that will be slightly disappointing. Most people then won't know a TV show is coming. All these factors point torward a decline. Even with all those factors I still do no see the film grossing less than 250m, And I realy dont see it finishing under a 3.0 multiplyer. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 12:49 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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If this movie gets $120M+ in four days, I don't see how Episode III can make any less than $250M total.
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| Tue Apr 19, 2005 11:06 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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I just edited mine again. I'm losing faith in Worlds after talking to non-movie-geek friends.
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| Wed Apr 20, 2005 2:07 am |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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Here:
1. House of Wax 760
2. Mindhunters 500
3. March of the Penguins 333
4. Murderball 244
5. Devils Rejects 220
6. Unleahed 200
7. Land of the Dead 176
8. High Tension 160
9. Lord of Dogtown 155
10. Must Love Dogs 147
_________________
Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?
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| Sat Apr 23, 2005 1:16 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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*bump* Just to see a couple of laughable Sith predictions. :razz:
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| Mon May 23, 2005 9:58 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Zingaling wrote: *bump* Just to see a couple of laughable Sith predictions. :razz: Let's just wait til the end of its run, then we can laugh at our predictions. :wink:
What if Madagascar absolutely killed it and Sith has a 70% drop? These are unlikely, but we can't assume stuff after day 4.
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| Mon May 23, 2005 10:02 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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MG Casey wrote: Zingaling wrote: *bump* Just to see a couple of laughable Sith predictions. :razz: Let's just wait til the end of its run, then we can laugh at our predictions. :wink: What if Madagascar absolutely killed it and Sith has a 70% drop? These are unlikely, but we can't assume stuff after day 4. Take your silly nonsense to BOM! :razz:
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| Mon May 23, 2005 10:34 pm |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm
Posts: 5868
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Hm. I'd like to see Sith drop 89% next weekend, just to see MG's crazy prediction come true so he can come back and shove it in everyone's faces.
Spite is almost too much fun to be allowed.
_________________
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| Tue May 24, 2005 12:37 am |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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In bold is the prediction I had before the movie opened...
1. War of the Worlds - $358.8 million
2. Star Wars: Episode III - $285 million (75-85% Right)
3. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $247.0 million
4. Madagascar - $209 million
5. Bewitched - $178 million
6. The Longest Yard - $133.5 million
7. The Island - $133.3 million
8. Batman Begins - $120.5 million
9. The Adventures of Shark Boy & Lava Girl in 3-D - $103.4 million
10. The Dukes of Hazzard - $94.5 million
11. Stealth - $90 million
12. Fantastic Four - $90 million
13. The Wedding Crashers - $88 million
14. Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $86.5 million
15. xXx: State of the Union - $82 million (0% Right)
16. Kingdom of Heaven - $75 million (55% Right)
17. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - $71 million
18. Monster-In-Law - $70 million (82-88% Right)
19. Kicking and Screaming - $70 million (90-92% Right)
20. Red Eye - $60 million
21. Herbie: Fully Loaded - $60 million
22. The Hitchhiker's Guide - $57 million (84% Right)
23. Deuce Bigalow: European Gigalow - $55 million
24. The Bad News Bears - $55 million
25. Land of the Dead - $53 million
My accuracy so far: 67% Right (stupid xXx!)
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| Fri May 27, 2005 12:46 am |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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Hope your right with your RED EYE and LAND OF THE DEAD predictions 
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| Fri May 27, 2005 6:39 am |
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