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 February 2-4 Predictions 

Which will be #1 Super Bowl This Weekend?
Poll ended at Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:10 pm
Maze Runner: The Death Cure 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 78%  78%  [ 7 ]
Winchester 22%  22%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 9

 February 2-4 Predictions 
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Dil wrote:
Tracking has Winchester in the single digits which sounds about right to me. I mean is there any buzz for that movie? Also, I love Helen Mirren, but she is not a box office draw and even if she was among older audiences they will probably have better things to do like watch the Superbowl. Maybe if its able to attract teens that can push it to $10M, but I wouldn't bet on it.


Kind of a shame. For paranormal enthusiasts like myself, the story of the Winchester Mystery House is an interesting one. Would love to check it out in person one day.

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Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:49 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Those numbers are not very encouraging for Winchester. Guess Jumanji and Maze Runner will battle it out.


Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:21 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
I have a feeling 12 Strong will be more affected by the Superbowl then Den of Thieves. I have Den of Thieves grossing slightly more this weekend.

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Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:27 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
12.9
Maze Runner: The Death Cure
10.63
The Greatest Showman
8.5
The Post
7.19
Hostiles
5.055
Den of Thieves
4.48
12 Strong
4.34
The Shape of Water
4.13
Paddington 2
3.95
Winchester
3.2


Greatest Showman moves up from its coveted #4 spot. :)

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Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:28 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
$3.2m is WAY TOO LOW for Winchester. It should cross $8m. Also there is a chance that TGS has a weird drop this time with adult crowd watching Superbowl.


Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:55 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
lol, Sparrow.

Decide on a number, dude.

Jack Sparrow wrote:
It should cross $8m.


Jack Sparrow wrote:
I think it will do $11m-$13m.


Jack Sparrow wrote:
Winchester could easily clear $15m mark.


You don't really have a clue, do you? ;)

It feels like if The Dark Shape now came in and said it will make $35m, you'd say "Yeah it totally could".


Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:01 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Yep Hostiles will drop 50% or more


Why exactly? Sure it will drop a lot Sunday but Friday and especially Saturday should be good. I don't really think it will be too front-loaded. Older audiences usually make it out slower and don't rush to see films "opening weekend."


Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:53 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Yep Hostiles will drop 50% or more


Why exactly?


It got just a "B" CinemaScore, David hates it, and it is Superbowl weekend, c'mon!


Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:54 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Algren wrote:
lol, Sparrow.

Decide on a number, dude.

Jack Sparrow wrote:
It should cross $8m.


Jack Sparrow wrote:
I think it will do $11m-$13m.


Jack Sparrow wrote:
Winchester could easily clear $15m mark.


You don't really have a clue, do you? ;)

It feels like if The Dark Shape now came in and said it will make $35m, you'd say "Yeah it totally could".


Yes. I don't have a clue on this. I thought it could do $11m-$13m but then tracking suggested single digits so I came down to $8m. But I am not going back upwards to $35m anymore.


Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:19 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Yep Hostiles will drop 50% or more


Why exactly? Sure it will drop a lot Sunday but Friday and especially Saturday should be good. I don't really think it will be too front-loaded. Older audiences usually make it out slower and don't rush to see films "opening weekend."


What Algren said plus older audience are the primary target for Superbowl, plus second weekend and there comes 50% drop.


Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:20 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Algren wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Yep Hostiles will drop 50% or more


Why exactly?


It got just a "B" CinemaScore, David hates it, and it is Superbowl weekend, c'mon!


Honestly a B CinemaScore for an older-skewing film is not the kiss of death. Or even for movies in general as long as it has good reviews. Unless older audiences are interested in the Helen Mirren horror film then there's no new competition for them really. You guys could very well be right though. I just don't think it will drop that harshly.


Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:14 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Well it also has the 9 Best Picture nominees as competition...

But I think you’re ultimately right and the drop will only be around 45%.

My crazy prediction - The Greatest Showman increases and takes #1. Talk about perfect counterprogramming for The Big Game. “I’ll watch football if you watch the musical with Wolverine” is like the definition or marital compromise.


Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:42 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
I'm jumping off the Winchester train. There really doesn't seem to be much interest. Here are my updated predictions.

1. JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE - 11.3 MILLION (-30%)
2. MAZE RUNNER: THE DEATH CURE - 11.1 MILLION (-54%)
3. WINCHESTER - 10.078 MILLION (New)
4. THE GREATEST SHOWMAN - 7.7 MILLION (-19%)
5. HOSTILES - 6.268 MILLION (-38%)
6. THE POST - 6.192 MILLION (-32%)
7. THE SHAPE OF WATER - 5.389 MILLION (-9%)
8. DEN OF THIEVES - 4.66 MILLION (-46%)
9. 12 STRONG - 4.6 MILLION (-47%)
10. PADDINGTON 2 - 3.74 MILLION (-34%)
11. THREE BILLBOARDS - 3.418 MILLION (-11%)
12. I, TONYA - 3.2 MILLION (+6%)
13. FOREVER MY GIRL - 2.747 MILLION (-23%)
14. PHANTOM THREAD - 2.594 MILLION (-13%)
15. STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI - 2.254 MILLION (-47%)


If Fox held off on releasing Showman on DVD for a while that movie could play for so damn long. People are seeing it multiple times. It's My Big Fat Greek Musical.


Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:51 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
It's SB weekend otherwise this could have been another weekend where TGS would do better than its first weekend.


Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:24 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:

If Fox held off on releasing Showman on DVD for a while that movie could play for so damn long. People are seeing it multiple times. It's My Big Fat Greek Musical.


I'm not happy this either but nothing is official yet. According to VideoEta and Blu-ray.com, the official release date is still TBD. Although most of the websites are saying March 6 are reliable, the studio can still delay a DVD release (doesn't happen very often, though).


Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:03 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
bl1222 wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:

If Fox held off on releasing Showman on DVD for a while that movie could play for so damn long. People are seeing it multiple times. It's My Big Fat Greek Musical.


I'm not happy this either but nothing is official yet. According to VideoEta and Blu-ray.com, the official release date is still TBD. Although most of the websites are saying March 6 are reliable, the studio can still delay a DVD release (doesn't happen very often, though).


Yeah they're stupid if they release it that soon. Plus I'm sure it's better on the big screen than it will be at home.


Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:03 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Why are they stupid? Carrying over heightened awareness and popularity into its DVD release is a great way to shift a whole bunch of DVDs. And studios get less and less of the box office revenue as the weeks go on, so I would keep 6th March.


Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:09 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
That's true from a business it doesn't make sense to not release it fast. Even Frozen did the same while the movie was doing great in theaters. Its been out for more than 2 months now and would still be out there for another month. Plus I don't think all theaters will pull it out after DVD release. If the people are really interested in seeing this in theaters they would still have the option open.


Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:58 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Looks like the Winchester reviews will be more frightening than the movie.

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Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:08 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Looks like the Winchester reviews will be more frightening than the movie.


I think I still need to fit it in this weekend for the 500 regal crown club bonus points.

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Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:34 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
This will be the first Super Bowl I've boycotted. Might be a good opportunity to check out something in a virtually empty theater!

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Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:20 am
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
This will be the first Super Bowl I've boycotted. Might be a good opportunity to check out something in a virtually empty theater!


Why are you boycotting it?


Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:00 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Rolling Thunder wrote:
This will be the first Super Bowl I've boycotted. Might be a good opportunity to check out something in a virtually empty theater!


Why are you boycotting it?


The NFL rejected an ad from a veterans group politely asking people to stand for our military. The NFL stated they don't promote political positions - yet, they were fine with their players kneeling all season, allowing camera crews to stay fixated on all those taking their own political stance.

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Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:03 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Rolling Thunder wrote:
This will be the first Super Bowl I've boycotted. Might be a good opportunity to check out something in a virtually empty theater!


Why are you boycotting it?


The NFL rejected an ad from a veterans group politely asking people to stand for our military. The NFL stated they don't promote political positions - yet, they were fine with their players kneeling all season, allowing camera crews to stay fixated on all those taking their own political stance.

If I boycotted every piece of entertainment I disagreed with politically, I’d have nothing left but Mel Gibson and Vince Vaughn movies.


Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:59 pm
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Post Re: February 2-4 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Rolling Thunder wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Rolling Thunder wrote:
This will be the first Super Bowl I've boycotted. Might be a good opportunity to check out something in a virtually empty theater!


Why are you boycotting it?


The NFL rejected an ad from a veterans group politely asking people to stand for our military. The NFL stated they don't promote political positions - yet, they were fine with their players kneeling all season, allowing camera crews to stay fixated on all those taking their own political stance.

If I boycotted every piece of entertainment I disagreed with politically, I’d have nothing left but Mel Gibson and Vince Vaughn movies.


I love football, longtime fan of the NFL, but their hypocrisy this year has been too much for me.

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