YOUR NAME much stronger in Germany than expected, could approach $1m in Thursday and Sunday showings...

Corpse, are there any contenders for ¥10 billion this year now that The Last Jedi will not come close?

Probably not, but here are some potential candidates -- very likely ¥5 billion+ earners that should go comfortably higher.

Domestic:
Mirai of the Future -- Hosoda's latest, so it'll likely do very well, but it'd need a huge increase over his previous films to reach ¥10 billion. The good news is that Hosoda and Studio Chizu have become household names by this point, and all of their films have been enjoying sizable increases over the last. It's probably the "most likely" simply due to it having more potential than anything I can think of, but it'll need a stellar audience reception.
Detective Conan: Executor Zero -- This is very unlikely, though the franchise has been increasing every year now for some four or five years, and has recently begun to post incredible numbers. As I said, ¥10 billion is almost certainly too high, but don't be surprised if it does around ¥7 billion and ends up as one of the biggest films of the year.

That's it for Japanese films that I would consider possible contenders. Now, there's still plenty of time for other films to get announced (films aren't announced very early in Japan), and a surprise film could be added to the schedule in the coming weeks/months. Toho usually has one big live-action film planned for the Summer, and I currently don't see one.

Imported:
Incredibles 2 -- Unlikely. It'll do well, I'm sure, but the original wasn't one of Pixar's biggest films in the market, and Pixar sequels haven't performed well in Japan either.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom -- The first one came close to ¥10 billion, but I'm sure it benefited from nostalgia, so I don't expect this sequel to surpass (or match) it.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald -- The first film was able to match the box office returns of the lowest-grossing Harry Potter films; however, I'm sure it, too, benefited from nostalgia, so I don't believe it'll surpass or match the success of the original.

There isn't anything in 2018 that looks like it'll reach ¥10 billion, but there are several films (more than just the five above) that should at least reach the ¥5 billion milestone, and if enough do, the year will still be strong.

I wish Yokai Watch bomb harder and earlier, Level-5 needs a strong omen to go back to Inazuma Eleven.

Why?

Also it does seem like Yokai Watch is falling harder with each entry and while its still doing profitable numbers the series hasn't settled yet in terms of decline. I don't see it lasting as long as it promised with its opening.

Thanks, Corpse. Coco is another film that has a chance of going over ¥5 billion I think.

Will recently announced Japan Academy Prize nomination affect box office?

They can if a film is still in wide release, but the only two that could possibly benefit would be The 8-Year Engagement and Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura. The former achieved Best Actor and Best Actress nominations, so it should see a bit of a boost; while the latter managed to earn nominations in most tech categories, which probably won't provide much of a boost.

All the major nominees are either out of theaters or in very limited release now. Sekigahara and The Third Murderer both achieved 10 nominations, very impressive. I'll post the 41st Japan Academy Prize Nominations sometime this week.

But since the main category for most readers here is probably Best Foreign Language Film, here are this year's nominees:

Dunkirk
Hidden Figures
Beauty and the Beast
Miss Sloane
La La Land

Any of them could win this year, in my opinion. Dunkirk may have the slight edge, though, since Nolan is pretty popular with the Academy. La La Land, however, has both the critical acclaim and box-office (audience reception) to back it up, but I'll stop there since I see a winnable case for each nominee this year.

Again, here are this year's nominees:

Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi)
Beauty and the Beast (Bill Condon)
Miss Sloane (John Madden)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)

And here are the past winners:

Best Foreign Language Picture Winners:

2017 - TBA
2016 - Sully (Clint Eastwood) *Eastwood's 6th Win*
2015 - American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
2014 - Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee)
2013 - Les Miserables (Tom Hooper)
2012 - The Intouchables (Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache)
2011 - The King's Speech (Tom Hooper)
2010 - Avatar (James Cameron)
2009 - Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood)
2008 - The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
2007 - Letters from Iwo Jima (Clint Eastwood)
2006 - Flags of Our Fathers (Clint Eastwood)
2005 - Million Dollar Baby (Clint Eastwood)
2004 - The Last Samurai (Edward Zwick)
2003 - The Pianist (Roman Polanski)
2002 - Monster's Ball (Marc Foster)
2001 - Billy Elliot (Stephen Daldry)
2000 - Dancer in the Dark (Lars von Trier)
1999 - The Sixth Sense (M. Night Shyamalan)
1998 - L.A. Confidential (Curtis Hanson)
1997 - Titanic (James Cameron)
1996 - II Postino (Michael Radford)
1995 - The Shawshank Redemption (Frank Darabont)
1994 - Schindler's List (Steven Spielberg)
1993 - Jurassic Park (Steven Spielberg)
1992 - JFK (Oliver Stone)
1991 - Dances with Wolves (Kevin Costner)
1990 - Field of Dreams (Phil Alden Robinson)
1989 - Die Hard (John McTiernan)
1988 - The Last Emperor (Bernardo Bertolucci)
1987 - Platoon (Oliver Stone)
1986 - Back to the Future (Robert Zemeckis)
1985 - Amadeus (Milos Forman)
1984 - Once Upon a Time in America (Sergio Leone)
1983 - An Officer and a Gentlemen (Taylor Hackford)
1982 - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (Steven Spielberg)
1981 - Die Blechtrommel (Volker Schlöndorff)
1980 - Kramer vs. Kramer (Robert Benton)
1979 - The Deer Hunter (Michael Cimino)
1978 - Conversation Piece (Luchino Visconti)
1977 - Rocky (John G. Avildsen)

Any chance for the previous two weekend charts?

Last weekend, yes, all the actuals were released -- I'll post it in the next day or so.

The 12/30-31 weekend, sort of... I can post what's available if you want. Only two films in the Top 10 had their weekend actual released, with three others receiving estimates, thus leaving five films on that weekend without any official estimate or actual. New Year's Eve landing on Sunday, followed by New Year, and then two Bank Holidays all in succession halted everything.

Yes, please! Thanks so much for your work!

Just want to say Thank you to Corpse for all your hard efforts over the last few years. For the past few weeks I've been forwarding your posts onto BoxOfficeTheory (my primary forum) whilst crediting you each time. I can say that many people from BOT are very grateful for your reports.

I'm going to try my best to keep forwarding them to BOT to ensure that your hard efforts are appreciated by many more!

Thank you so much, honestly.

Of course, guys.

And feasby007, feel free to post some here in the future.

41st Japan Academy Prize Nominations

Picture of the Year:
-Let Me Eat Your Pancreas
-The Third Murderer
-Sekigahara
-Miracles of the Namiya General Store
-Flower and Sword

Animation of the Year:
-Fireworks, Should We See It from the Side or the Bottom?
-Napping Princess
-Mary and the Witch's Flower
-Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter
-The Night Is Short, Walk On Girl

Director of the Year:
-Kiyoshi Kurosawa – Before We Vanish
-Hirokazu Kore-eda – The Third Murder
-Tetsuo Shinohara – Flower and Sword
-Masato Harada – Sekigahara
-Ryūichi Hiroki – Miracles of the Namiya General Store

Screenplay of the Year:
-Hirokazu Kore-eda – The Third Murder
-Hiroshi Saitō – Miracles of the Namiya General Store
-Yoshiko Morishita – Flower and Sword
-Yoji Yamada and Emiko Hiramatsu – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Tomoko Yoshida – Let Me Eat Your Pancreas

Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actor:
-Yo Oizumi – The Last Shot in the Bare
-Junichi Okada – Sekigahara
-Takeru Satoh – The 8-Year Engagement
-Masaki Suda – Wilderness: Part One
-Tatsuya Fujiwara – Memoirs of a Murderer

Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actress:
-Yū Aoi – Birds Without Names
-Yui Aragaki – Mixed Doubles
-Tao Tsuchiya – The 8-Year Engagement
-Masami Nagasawa – Before We Vanish
-Yuriko Yoshitaka – Yurigokoro

Outstanding Performance by a Supporting Actor:
-Toshiyuki Nishida – Miracles of the Namiya General Store
-Masahiko Nishimura – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Ryuhei Matsuda – The Last Shot in the Bar
-Nijirō Murakami – Mukoku
-Kōji Yakusho – The Third Murder
-Kōji Yakusho – Sekigahara

Outstanding Performance by a Supporting Actress:
-Machiko Ono – Miracles of the Namiya General Store
-Keiko Kitagawa – The Last Shot in the Bar
-Yui Natsukawa – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Suzu Hirose – The Third Murder
-Hiroko Yakushimaru – The 8-Year Engagement

Outstanding Achievement in Music:
-Keiichi Suzuki – Outrage Coda
-Harumi Fūki – Sekigahara
-Takatsugu Muramatsu – The 8-Year Engagement
-Ludovico Einaudi – The Third Murder
-Jin – Kiseki: Sobito of That Day

Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography:
-Tokushō Kikumura – Flower and Sword
-Kōzō Shibasaki – Destiny: The Tale of Kamakura
-Takahide Shibanushi – Sekigahara
-Mikiya Takimoto – The Third Murder
-Masashi Chikamori – What a Wonderful Family! 2

Outstanding Achievement in Lighting Direction:
-Tatsuya Osada – Flower and Sword
-Nariyuki Ueda – Destiny: The Tale of Kamakura
-Takaaki Miyanishi – Sekigahara
-Norikiyo Fujii – The Third Murder
-Kōichi Watanabe – What a Wonderful Family! 2

Outstanding Achievement in Art Direction:
-Tomoko Kurata – Flower and Sword
-Tomoko Kurata and Hisayuki Kobayashi – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Anri Jōjō – Destiny: The Tale of Kamakura
-Tetsuo Harada – Sekigahara
-Tomoyuki Maruo and Rihito Nakagawa – Miracles of the Namiya General Store

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Recording:
-Satoshi Ozaki – Flower and Sword
-Kazumi Kishida – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Yoshifumi Kureishi – Outrage Coda
-Kazuhiko Tomita – The Third Murder
-Masato Yano – Sekigahara

Outstanding Achievement in Film Editing:
-Hirohide Abe – Flower and Sword
-Iwao Ishii – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Takeshi Kitano and Yoshinori Ota – Outrage Coda
-Hirokazu Kore-eda – The Third Murder
-Masato Harada – Sekigahara

Outstanding Foreign Language Film:
-Dunkirk
-Hidden Figures
-Beauty and the Beast
-Miss Sloane
-La La Land

Newcomer of the Year:
-Ayami Nakajo – Let's Go, Jets!
-Minami Hamabe – Let Me Eat Your Pancreas
-Takumi Kitamura – Let Me Eat Your Pancreas
-Ryoma Takeuchi – Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High

The Ceremony will will take place on March 2, 2018 at the Grand Prince Hotel New Takanawa in Tokyo, Japan.

41st Japan Academy Prize Nomination Tally:

10 - The Third Murderer
10 - Sekigahara
8 - Flower and Sword
8 - What a Wonderful Family! 2
5 - Miracles of the Namiya General Store
4 - The 8-Year Engagement
3 - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura
3 - Outrage Coda
3 - The Last Shot in the Bar
2 - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas
1 - Mukoku
1 - Wilderness: Part One
1 - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day
1 - Confessions of a Murderer
1 - Before We Vanish
1 - Birds Without Names
1 - Yurigokoro
1 - Fireworks, Should We See It from the Side or the Bottom?
1 - Napping Princess
1 - Mary and the Witch's FLower
1 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter
1 - The Night Is Short, Walk On Girl

Tally excludes Newcomer of the Year Category.

Interesting Notes Regarding the Nominations:

>Koji Yakusho was nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actor for two separate roles; one for his role in Sekigahara, and the other for The Third Murderer -- the two most nominated films this year.
>Let Me Eat Your Pancreas was nominated for Picture of the Year despite only being nominated in one other category -- Screenplay of the Year. Both of the film's leads earned Newcomer of the Year nominations, however.
>Kiyoshi Kurosawa was nominated for Director of the Year for Before We Vanish, which was also the only category the film received a nomination in.
>Yoji Yamada, 86, becomes the oldest director to have a film nominated in more than one category for his 83rd theatrical release, What a Wonderful Family! 2, which received 8 nominations.

Hey Corpse how much did the original Paddington make there and how was it received there? Any predictions on early WoM and legs for the sequel?

The first film opened to ¥129.4 million ($1.1 million) on 99,913 admissions, and finished with about ¥675 million ($6.1 million) on ~530,000 admissions. Those were some fairly disappointing legs, honestly, and surprisingly so. However, this result was an extraordinarily strong result for independent distributor, Kino Films. To my knowledge, they've never had a ¥1 billion film, or any comes close to that mark, so Paddington is surely one of their biggest films ever.

Based on Weekend Estimates, which I'll post here soon, the sequel more or less matched the original's debut this weekend (my initial estimate is within 3,000 admissions) . It's too early to really discuss WOM, which typically takes at least a full week or two to have an impact, but I doubt legs will differ much.