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addr0ck
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 10:41 am
Posts: 464
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Maverikk wrote: 125/350
That's 4 day and total gross. I agree with this opening but I say over 400 final gross.
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| Fri Mar 25, 2005 11:32 pm |
 
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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You know??  Despite the fact this looks great and all, I'm afraid I'm gonna have to really keep it real as well, especially after AOTC opened with 80 Million in it's 1st weekend so my OFFICIAL Prediction for this is now as follows:
3 day weekend: 85 Million
4 day weekend: 120 Million
Overall Domestic: 330-350 Million..
_________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Sat Mar 26, 2005 4:15 am |
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addr0ck
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 10:41 am
Posts: 464
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Yeah... I really think this movie is going to build. Its edge will give it more.
But people always forget that Star Wars films do NOT open as wide as most average blockbusters do.
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| Sat Mar 26, 2005 6:55 am |
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Legend of Jam
Waitress in LA
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 4:35 pm
Posts: 23
Location: UK
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I really do hope that this opens big and smashes all the records in the box office but realistically i expect
105 million 3 day weekend
140 million 4 day weekend
and although i love the trailer i do think it will alienate some of the childrens market so i dont expect this to be as big as Phantom Menace so i'll say
350-375 million total with it possibly doing more if it is an out of this world movie
we can always hope right?
_________________
Most Anticipated Movies this Fall
1. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
2. Fun with Dick and Jane
3. Corpse Bride
4. King Kong
5. Saw 2
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| Sat Mar 26, 2005 8:43 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Opening Day: $36.9M
Opening Weekend: 96.8 (136.7 4-day)
Total: 363.3 (3.75)
Overseas: 386.5 (749.8 WW)
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| Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:40 pm |
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Anonymous
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 Here is a chart of all the predictions so far. Many thanks to segask from BOM for the layout of it.
Feel free to add missing predictions, or to update already made ones.
Code:
all $ are in millions.
Op- Opening Memorial 3day 3day 3day Dom- Over WW
en- Weekend Weekend 2nd OW % OW es- seas Ttl
ing (thu-sun) (fri-mon) wknd of Mult tic Ttl
Day 3day 4day 3day 4day drop Ttl iply Ttl
======================================================================
Algren ? 65 ? ? ? ? 22% 4.6 301 ? ?
MG Casey 26 81 107 ? ? ? 36% 2.8 227 ? ?
Korrgan ? 105 ? ? ? ? 31% 3.2 338 ? ?
Nebs 40 106 146 ? ? ? 26% 3.9 411 ? ?
matatonio 35 95 130 ? ? ? 28% 3.5 335 365 700
Snickety Snack 2 ? 87 ? ? ? ? 29% 3.4 297 ? ?
Dr. Lecter 36 91 127 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 338 ? ?
Amer ? ? 138 ? ? ? ? ? 406 ? ?
BJ 43 121 164 62 81 -49% 29% 3.4 416 464 880
ShadyMilkman ? 102 ? ? ? ? 25% 4.0 405 ? ?
neo wolf ? 90 ? ? ? ? 27% 3.7 330 ? ?
RogueCommander 37 82 119 ? ? ? 28% 3.5 290 ? ?
Daniel Raedts ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 525 ? ?
ChipMunky ? 115 ? ? ? ? 21% 4.7 537 ? ?
DP07 34 84 118 37 ? -56% 32% 3.1 260 310 570
Maverikk ? ? 125 ? ? ? ? ? 350 ? ?
hans 40 99 139 58 72 -41% 26% 3.8 375 ? ?
jb007 ? 96 ? ? ? ? 21% 4.8 462 ? ?
Riggs27 ? 94 ? ? ? ? 29% 3.5 327 ? ?
Samweis Gamdschie ? 93 ? ? ? ? 32% 3.1 291 ? ?
Nazgul9 ? ? 130 ? ? ? ? ? 350 ? ?
MikeQ. ? 95 ? ? ? ? 32% 3.2 300 ? ?
FILMO ? 92 ? ? ? ? 28% 3.6 332 444 776
want2write 35 95 130 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 330 ? ?
insomniacdude 35 95 130 ? ? ? 24% 4.1 390 ? ?
Ragnarok 38 87 125 ? ? ? 31% 3.2 282 ? ?
El_masked_este.. ? 95 ? ? ? ? 33% 3.0 288 ? ?
Squee ? 87 ? ? ? ? 27% 3.8 327 ? ?
Impact 47 112 159 68 90 -39% 29% 3.5 390 510 900
revolutions 40 90 130 ? ? ? 25% 3.9 355 470 825
moviedude ? 95 ? ? ? ? 38% 2.6 250 ? ?
scottb 40 109 149 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 408 478 886
Zingaling 36 97 133 ? ? ? 30% 3.3 321 ? ?
Futureboy ? 103 ? ? ? ? 30% 3.4 345 465 810
Killuminati510 ? ? 120 ? ? ? ? ? 355 ? ?
BKB The Man 35 85 120 ? ? ? 25% 4.0 340 ? ?
Jon Lyrik ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 290 ? ?
rusty 33 105 138 ? ? ? 26% 3.9 410 ? ?
nghtvsn 33 95 128 ? ? ? 30% 3.4 321 ? ?
Terminator1997 36 101 137 ? ? ? 23% 4.3 434 510 944
addrOck ? ? 125 ? ? ? ? ? 400 ? ?
Legend of Jam 35 105 140 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 363 ? ?
Positive Jon 37 97 134 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 363 387 750
Amos 35 84 119 46 ? -45% 26% 3.8 321 365 686
Steve 38 97 135 ? ? ? 31% 3.2 315 ? ?
=====================================================================
average 37 95 132 54 81 -46% 28% 3.6 351 433 793
high 47 121 164 68 90 -56% 38% 4.8 537 510 940
low 26 65 107 37 72 -39% 21% 2.6 227 310 570
=====================================================================
TPM actual 29 65 106^ 51 67 -22% 15% 6.6 431 493 924
AOTC actual 30 80 110 48 60 -40% 26% 3.9 311 339 650
^ 106 is a 5-day total as TPM opened on wednesday. AOTC opened
on thursday and ROTS will also open on thursday.
opening weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is thu-sun.
memorial day weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is fri-mon.
Also, for fitting the numbers in the chart, they were rounded. If you'd like to see more detailed chart, you can get them from this excel sheet.
Last edited by Anonymous on Wed Mar 30, 2005 4:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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| Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:35 pm |
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sako
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:07 pm
Posts: 1684
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Nice Chart!!
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| Tue Mar 29, 2005 8:32 pm |
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Amos
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 10:54 pm
Posts: 1585
Location: New Zealand
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Opening Day:$35m
3-Day:$84m
4-Day: $119m
Second Week Drop: 45.4%
Total Gross: $321m
Overseas: $365m
Worldwide: $686m
_________________
Cut My Milk!
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| Wed Mar 30, 2005 1:12 am |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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The Minumum I can picture this getting is 300, the max 430
_________________
Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?
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| Wed Mar 30, 2005 11:41 am |
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Steve
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:09 pm
Posts: 1882
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3-day opening: $97m
4-day opening: $135m
Final gross: $315m
_________________
how am I not myself?
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| Wed Mar 30, 2005 2:00 pm |
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matatonio
Teh Mexican
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:56 pm
Posts: 26066
Location: In good ol' Mexico
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Update!
Opening Day: $38.4M
3-Day: $90.2M / 4-Day: $128.6M
Second Week Drop: 46.1%
Total Gross: $318M
Overseas: $360M
Worldwide: $678M
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| Thu Mar 31, 2005 5:28 pm |
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Erendis
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:40 am
Posts: 1527
Location: Emyn Arnen
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Wow, I don't have an official prediction yet.
Opening day: I will assume that there are enough fans taking the day off to sell out opening day regardless of screen count. We learned from RotK that the max opening day is ~$34M, but RotK was 3.5 hr long. SW is likely to be (?)2:15-2:30 or so. hmmm..
Opening day (Thursday): $38M
Opening weekend: I don't believe that a Thursday opening will bleed off any of Fri-Sat-Sun. There are enough casual fans for the weekend, and any slack will be picked up by repeat viewings from diehards.
Fri-Sat-Sun: $86M
4-day: $124M
Mem day weekend: $75M
3rd weekend drop: after the initial hype, it will drop, but not as fast as Reloaded. Any traditional Star Wars hype will be canceled out by the now-traditional backlash of the fans who conclude that RotS was "meh." Also this is when competition -- yes, competition for Star Wars -- will kick in.
3rd weekend drop: $75M drops to $43M = ~42% drop
I expect about 35% drops for a month, then 40% after that when you lose screens. That would give me a domestic total of about $315, but I'm going to fudge and add a little bit.
Domestic total: $325M.
Or, going by a shorter formula, AotC made -- shoot, wasn't it close to TTT, like $335M? SW prequels appear to follow the Sequel Rule, and movie quality doesn't appear to have much bearing on the Sequel Rule (much like Harry Potter). Therefore, RotS should make much less than AotC, but I predict it will make only a little less, due to inflation and the whole "it's the last one" thing.
International ~$350M. SW isn't nearly as popular as LotR was overseas.
WW Total: $675M
By the way, I am fully prepared to be "pwnt" if this movie gets good reviews and WOM.
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| Thu Mar 31, 2005 6:18 pm |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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I think this movie is going to kick all kinds of ass. The build up for this one looks very tangible and I think it will do better than Clones.
Opening 85- 3 Day
4 day- 120
Domestic 375
WW 850 mill
_________________
Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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| Thu Mar 31, 2005 6:31 pm |
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Anonymous
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Updated.
Code:
all $ are in millions.
Op- Opening Memorial 3day 3day 3day Dom- Over WW
en- Weekend Weekend 2nd OW % OW es- seas Ttl
ing (thu-sun) (fri-mon) wknd of Mult tic Ttl
Day 3day 4day 3day 4day drop Ttl iply Ttl
======================================================================
Algren ? 65 ? ? ? ? 22% 4.6 301 ? ?
MG Casey 26 81 107 ? ? ? 36% 2.8 227 ? ?
Korrgan ? 105 ? ? ? ? 31% 3.2 338 ? ?
Nebs 40 106 146 ? ? ? 26% 3.9 411 ? ?
matatonio 38 90 128 49 ? -46% 28% 3.5 318 360 678
Snickety Snack 2 ? 87 ? ? ? ? 29% 3.4 297 ? ?
Dr. Lecter 36 91 127 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 338 ? ?
Amer ? ? 138 ? ? ? ? ? 406 ? ?
BJ 43 121 164 62 81 -49% 29% 3.4 416 464 880
ShadyMilkman ? 102 ? ? ? ? 25% 4.0 405 ? ?
neo wolf ? 90 ? ? ? ? 27% 3.7 330 ? ?
RogueCommander 37 82 119 ? ? ? 28% 3.5 290 ? ?
Daniel Raedts ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 525 ? ?
ChipMunky ? 115 ? ? ? ? 21% 4.7 537 ? ?
DP07 34 84 118 37 ? -56% 32% 3.1 260 310 570
Maverikk ? ? 125 ? ? ? ? ? 350 ? ?
hans 40 99 139 58 72 -41% 26% 3.8 375 417 792
jb007 ? 96 ? ? ? ? 21% 4.8 462 ? ?
Riggs27 ? 94 ? ? ? ? 29% 3.5 327 ? ?
Samweis Gamdschie ? 93 ? ? ? ? 32% 3.1 291 ? ?
Nazgul9 ? ? 130 ? ? ? ? ? 350 ? ?
MikeQ. ? 95 ? ? ? ? 32% 3.2 300 ? ?
FILMO ? 92 ? ? ? ? 28% 3.6 332 444 776
want2write 35 95 130 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 330 ? ?
insomniacdude 35 95 130 ? ? ? 24% 4.1 390 ? ?
Ragnarok 38 87 125 ? ? ? 31% 3.2 282 ? ?
El_masked_este.. ? 95 ? ? ? ? 33% 3.0 288 ? ?
Squee ? 87 ? ? ? ? 27% 3.8 327 ? ?
Impact 47 112 159 68 90 -39% 29% 3.5 390 510 900
revolutions 40 90 130 ? ? ? 25% 3.9 355 470 825
moviedude ? 95 ? ? ? ? 38% 2.6 250 ? ?
scottb 40 109 149 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 408 478 886
Zingaling 36 97 133 ? ? ? 30% 3.3 321 ? ?
Futureboy ? 103 ? ? ? ? 30% 3.4 345 465 810
Killuminati510 ? ? 120 ? ? ? ? ? 355 ? ?
BKB The Man 35 85 120 ? ? ? 25% 4.0 340 ? ?
Jon Lyrik ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 290 ? ?
rusty 33 105 138 ? ? ? 26% 3.9 410 ? ?
nghtvsn 33 95 128 ? ? ? 30% 3.4 321 ? ?
Terminator1997 36 101 137 ? ? ? 23% 4.3 434 510 944
addrOck ? ? 125 ? ? ? ? ? 400 ? ?
Legend of Jam 35 105 140 ? ? ? 29% 3.5 363 ? ?
Positive Jon 37 97 134 ? ? ? 27% 3.7 363 387 750
Amos 35 84 119 46 ? -45% 26% 3.8 321 365 686
Steve 38 97 135 ? ? ? 31% 3.2 315 ? ?
Erendis 38 86 124 ? 75 ? 26% 3.8 325 350 675
baumer72 35 85 120 ? ? ? 23% 4.4 375 475 850
=====================================================================
average 37 95 131 53 80 -46% 28% 3.6 351 429 787
high 47 121 164 68 90 -56% 38% 4.8 537 510 940
low 26 65 107 37 72 -39% 21% 2.6 227 310 570
=====================================================================
TPM actual 29 65 106^ 51 67 -22% 15% 6.6 431 493 924
AOTC actual 30 80 110 48 60 -40% 26% 3.9 311 339 650
^ 106 is a 5-day total as TPM opened on wednesday. AOTC opened
on thursday and ROTS will also open on thursday.
opening weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is thu-sun.
memorial day weekend 3-day is fri-sun and 4-day is fri-mon.
Last edited by Anonymous on Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Thu Mar 31, 2005 7:06 pm |
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matatonio
Teh Mexican
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:56 pm
Posts: 26066
Location: In good ol' Mexico
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uuum, Nebs you got my Domestic, Overseas and WW gross wrong 
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| Thu Mar 31, 2005 7:11 pm |
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Bodrul
All Star Poster
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 11:21 am
Posts: 4694
Location: Cambridge, England.
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WW - 792,000,000
International - 417,000,000
_________________
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| Thu Mar 31, 2005 8:09 pm |
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Anonymous
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Fixed.
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| Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:16 pm |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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For the next 24 hours my predict is: 3/8
_________________
Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?
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| Fri Apr 01, 2005 3:08 am |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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bumps
_________________
Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?
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| Sun Apr 03, 2005 7:49 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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"BUMP"
we need some star wars nuts  to come an post some insane predictions. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:54 pm |
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FILMO
The Original
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:19 am
Posts: 9808
Location: Suisse
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I ad a 36 Opening Day and a 126 4Day
If it makes not to much work to fix the chart :razz:
_________________Libs wrote: FILMO, I'd rather have you eat chocolate syrup off my naked body than be a moderator here.
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:03 pm |
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JMorphin
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:58 am
Posts: 1335
Location: Austin, TX
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I think this will perform like the Matrix:Reloaded X 1.1 lol
40 million Thursday
33 million Friday
37 million Saturday
30 million Sunday
100 million 3-day / 140 million 5-day
Man my prediction seems boring :wink:
_________________
"Do or do not, there is no try."
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:10 pm |
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Star Wars
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 1:18 pm
Posts: 1638
Location: Alderaan
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Opening Weekend: $170 million
4 Day: $250 million
Total: $1,093 million
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:55 pm |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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StarWarsEpisode7 wrote: Opening Weekend: $170 million You know that's literally impossible. If every show in the entire nation was 100% full, I doubt it could get this high.
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:59 pm |
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Star Wars
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 1:18 pm
Posts: 1638
Location: Alderaan
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MG Casey wrote: StarWarsEpisode7 wrote: Opening Weekend: $170 million You know that's literally impossible. If every show in the entire nation was 100% full, I doubt it could get this high. I bet in 1997 if I said "Titanic will make $1.8 billion worldwide!" you would also say "You know that's literally impossible!"
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| Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:14 pm |
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