I think it does at least 30 million. Should be number 3 for previews all time.

I do think the OD will be below BvS but it will be close.

Besides the fact that it's Star Wars, is there any reason to be excited for this? That's the only reason I'm interested, and I guess that's still enough.

I mean it's a Star Wars movie with Darth fucking Vader, so of course the presales are going to be high come the first day they go on sale. The fans are excited for this, but it's not like this year was great for pre-sales anyways and TFA was a HUGE EVENT last year. Like I said before I'm not expecting it to have the same momentum, but $25M-$30M in previews should happen and that is nothing to take likely especially coming from a spinoff.

So with 25-30m previews what do you all see for the 3day?

That would probably translate to 75m OD and 150 OW.

I have this ~ 129 then I add 20m because its SW so 150 is fair I think

90m opening day bitches

I have a feeling this will just miss Finding Dory with around 475 million total.

Poll added, runs 10 days from now, re-voting allowed...

The ''Breath'' tv spot has me convinced this will open to $150M+ again. More spots like that and it should be smooth sailings here on out. I wonder how frontloaded it's going to be though ?

That fish is going down

I recall about a month before TFA came out that I put up a manifesto of sorts on here claiming that for it to break 250m literally everything had to go right for the movie. I consider 247 close enough to 250 fwiw. I had discounted the nostalgia effect completely and I even grew up on SW so that was a mistake. There is no question about the stunning social media presence TFA had and as the weekend played out people saw it 2-3 times crushing the numbers.
Moving on to Rogue One:
VADER, arguably the biggest villain of all time returns to the screen.
Social media is nowhere close to TFA, there was a great article about this on deadline. If anyone has current analysis please share.
Presales are good, zero shock there and if you look at upcoming release schedule the presales damn well better be good.
There are no other recognizable "stars" but for Whitaker, while I personally enjoy this trend others don't.

This is a rough draft for now.. As always feedback appreciated. Rev seems to be the biggest proponent on here but he was right about TFA so I'm not saying he's wrong.

Keeping it real gotta bounce.

Rogue One pre-sales at my local are nowhere near the level of TFA - plenty of good seats still available for the previews next Thursday. Prepare to be underwhelmed.

450m-500m

It's looking more like 35% at my theatre.

So you're thinking a sub-90 million opening?

For what it's worth, I'm hearing this is really good.

If we have to take the word of Edwards saying that Lucas "loved it", I'd be concerned because Lucas loved his own Episode 1 as well.

HA! Not a chance in hell.

No Star Wars movie is ever opening sub 100m any longer.
Kiss those days goodbye

Gareth Edwards has to promote this movie - his future career's at stake. Rogue One was already taken away from him and handed over to Tony Gilroy.

It's a success won't every studio know it was Gilroy who made the film what it is then anyway. But sure he has to promote it, but especially if it's not his film anymore it's especially funny that he brings up Lucas, since Lucas is basically endorsing Gilroy then. I guess Edwards at this point can't win anyway, until he tries with another film himself that he's completely able to own in that way.

Review embargo ends Tuesday the 13th at 5 pm EST.

3 days b4 release? Uh oh it must suck. I want refund on my tickets

As USUAL reviews won't matter at all. Still unsure what this is going to do Twitter activity has definitely picked up.
I never thought this would be a bomb but am legit undecided what it really does.

I hope this is really good and not a huge disappointment like TFA.