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 STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016 

SW R1 wil gross domestically
Poll ended at Sat Dec 10, 2016 7:22 pm
less than $300m 13%  13%  [ 1 ]
$300m-350m 13%  13%  [ 1 ]
$350m-400m 13%  13%  [ 1 ]
$400m-450m 13%  13%  [ 1 ]
$450m-500m 50%  50%  [ 4 ]
$500m-550m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$550m-600m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$600m-650m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$650m-700m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
more than $700m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 8

 STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016 
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Superfreak
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Great trailers, but sadly the fact that it is clear the film is a complete disaster no doubt hurt buzz.

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Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:25 pm
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Superfreak
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
I would argue the teaser is no doubt better no doubt

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Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:34 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Just aired with Olympics ala TFA with MNF

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Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:37 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Magnus wrote:
I'm pretty unimpressed by that trailer. It doesn't really seem to have any real Star Wars magic to it. Which is sort of the point but it doesn't make it that appealing IMO.

Why do you think it's missing Star Wars magic?


Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:38 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
The 30 second midsection montage in TFA final trailer with the whole "It's true. All of it" set to the majestic whimsical music was SW magic at its best

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Fri Aug 12, 2016 12:01 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Trailer lived up the hype, and looks to be getting a great reaction.


Fri Aug 12, 2016 12:22 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
It doesn't look bad, but I find it difficult to be excited for this, and I enjoyed The Force Awakens. The glimpse of Darth at the end didn't do anything for me, but I imagine it would send a Comic-Con crowd nuts.

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Fri Aug 12, 2016 12:24 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
The SW nerdom is the biggest of all nerdoms so if they are excited, that will allow for big boxoffice.

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Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:11 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Kenspy wrote:
Trailer lived up the hype, and looks to be getting a great reaction.


Yes it did :D

200m OW
600m domestic

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Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:27 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Big opening, frontloaded. Despite the trailer editors attempts to show the contrary, the film looks like a mess with a weird tone...I can totally see the reports of Disney wanting to turn a bleak spy thriller into a family friendly romp reflected in this footage. It just seemed awkward.

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Fri Aug 12, 2016 1:44 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
I hope after it doesn't prove to be that much more frontloaded than The Force Awakens, I won't have to hear that TFA didn't have frontloading (yes, the late legs were great). Although the 16th vs the 18th could affect it a bit.


Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:14 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
DP07 wrote:
I hope after it doesn't prove to be that much more frontloaded than The Force Awakens, I won't have to hear that TFA didn't have frontloading (yes, the late legs were great).


"THE FORCE AWAKENS grossed $688m after opening weekend. Frontloaded!" - DP07


Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:19 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
I still don't think this is a guarantee for $400m but with SW series you never know.


Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:26 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Magnus wrote:
i mean TFA was frontloaded. It dropped 42.7% on its second day. Thats frontloading.

But it survived this frontloading and had strong legs.


Worse than Suicide Squad, if we're being honest.

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Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:28 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
SS dropped even without previews.


Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:27 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Magnus wrote:
i mean TFA was frontloaded. It dropped 42.7% on its second day.


It also grossed $57 million at midnight, and had a healthy Saturday increase minus previews. (Which, as Lotan pointed out, is not a given in this day and age.)

C'mon, guys. If you're going to judge a movie's legs based purely on percentages when numbers are that big, you're being silly.

If every single person in the United States saw a movie opening weekend, and they all liked it so much they went back a second time, would that movie have poor legs because it only had a 2x multiplier?


Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:13 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Lotan wrote:
Where do you see its OW then?


I'm thinking 150-160m. Total 450-480m.

Hasn't really changed since the new trailer was released.

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Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:38 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
And regarding TFA, you really can't talk about poor legs/front loading for a 900m+ grosser. Comparisons won't be apples with apples.

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Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:40 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Magnus wrote:
i mean TFA was frontloaded. It dropped 42.7% on its second day. Thats frontloading.


lol, that is because it had an obscene number of showings on thursday


Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:59 pm
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Where do you draw a border between frontloadiness and bad legs?


Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:17 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Frontloading is what you see it as. Some movies show frontloading in their entire run (see BvS) but most movies nowadays are just frontloaded at OW's and then have decent legs for rest of its run. Think Magnus is referring to that.


Sat Aug 13, 2016 7:42 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
The films faces no real competition from any really big film.

There are some 100 million grossers but no big blockbuster Rouge one has good WOM can have solid legs.

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Sat Aug 13, 2016 10:34 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Magnus wrote:
Y'all need to understand the simple concept that a film can be frontloaded and have good legs. TFA is one of those films.


Y'all need to understand the simple concept that frontloading is the register of a movie's gross made at the beginning of its run. You know, the front.

A movie being both frontloaded and having good legs utterly negates the definition of frontloaded.

Also? Of the movies that have broken the opening weekend record, The Force Awakens had a better multiplier than any film since Jurassic Park in 1993.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 3.78
Jurassic World - 3.12
The Avengers - 3.00
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - 2.25
The Dark Knight - 3.37
Spider-Man 3 - 2.28
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - 3.52
The Lost World - 3.17
Batman Forever - 3.48


Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:24 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
Yes but SW7 is the only one that was received in December.


Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:55 am
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Post Re: STAR WARS : ROGUE ONE Predictions December 16th 2016
That's not what frontloading is. Frontloading isn't measured by opening day or weekend by itself -- it's measured by its entire run when compared to the opening. That's why it's front - loading.


Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:11 pm
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